August 9, 2009

Checking the accuracy of my predictions

Part of what makes things in this world work requires having some Faith in Numbers. Back in June I ran some numbers on Rasmussen's Presidential job approval daily tracking. I was skeptical of my own expectations. After all at the beginning of the year I predicted unemployment would exceed 8.8%, but I also got a few things wrong.

Back on June 25th, I came up with the following two observations;

1. Obama's strong approval would slip below his strong disapproval numbers by July.
2. Overall, his disapproval numbers would slip below his approval numbers by September.

It turns out that while there was a single Presidential Index in the negatives in June, it's likely attributable to a bit of statistical noise. It was isolated but it was part of the bigger trend. However, the Strongly Disapprove numbers dipped below the Strongly Approve on June 30th and has stayed there ever since. While I expected that to happen, I really had trouble believing my own forecast. I thought it would take longer, but it was correct.

On the other account, his overall approval below disapproval by September, the numbers on Rasmussen are hovering around 50% and have dipped below there a couple of times. It's early August. Things change, but the trending looks like it's going exactly as predicted.

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