October 31, 2022

Governor Series: WI - Tim Michels

Tim Michels is not a politician. Endorsed by President Trump. He’s a business leader, he’s a builder, and he’s a veteran. And he's closing in the polls. He's the governor Wisconsin needs, his opponent is clearly not.

October 30, 2022

Updated Generic Congressional ballot (me vs RCP)

Here's my latest take on the RCP numbers for the generic congressional ballot.  If you strip out Trafalgar for being a REpblican leaning firm, the numbers actually get better for the GOP than they appear below, rising to a Republican advantage of +7.6%.  But since that is being selectively biased for a better result, let's stick with the below chart as my latest view:

Being cautiously optimistic as I am, I am getting close to conceding that this may indeed be a red wave election.  Not quite yet, but I am cautiously optmistic it just could be.

Sunday verse


October 29, 2022

Nope, it wasn't ultra-MAGA

Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul Pelosi was attacked by a leftist, not an ultra-MAGA type.

Mark Dice has a few entertaining updates on the Elon Musk Twitter takeover

 Mark Dice shares his take:

October 28, 2022

Updated Generic Congressional Ballot Polling

This is pretty easy to upkeep since I've set it up, so why not update my RealClearPolitics interpretation more frequently between now and November 8th?  Here's the snapshot as of today:

As a reminder, I'm only including the latest poll from each pollster, happening the last ten days where only Likely Voters (LV) are included.  I have also excluded any polls for being revealing a sample size, and I am weighting the polls impact based on their size.  Other factors such as pollster bias or question wording have not been considered.  Nevertheless this still provides a more relevant result than how RCP average their average of polls.

You can see that the advantage has ballooned as I had predicted.  Even if I include as far back as October 11th, which I believe is probably a bit stale, the GOP still hold a +4.3% advantage.  Further if I remove supposedly Republican biased polls (Federalist, Rasmussen, and Trafalgar), I still get a Republican +3.6% advantage over the last 17 days of polls, or Republican +4.3% over the last 8 days.  I'm not trying to cherry pick, just show that the polls are showing voters moving to the right. 

Tulsi Gabbard discusses Elon Musk's Twitter with Russell Brand

Tulsi Gabbard explains to Russell Brand why she believes Elon Musk's Twitter takeover matters. 

Governor Predictions

I recently finished a list of brief appeals for voters for senators in toss-up states.  I will soon be doing the same for governors and hopefully time permitting, for congressional races as well.  Meanwhile here are a couple of predictions for governor races across the nation in the upcoming midterm elections, one from the right and one from the left.

October 27, 2022

Me vs RCP on Generic Congressional Ballot

The RealClear Politics summary of polls on the generic congressional ballot doesn't work for me.  It weighs polls of all voters or registered voters or likely voters equally.  These are not apples to apples polls.  At this point Likely Voters are the best guage of poll results.  That assumes that pollsters' assignment of likely voters is sound (regardless of whether they are self-identified or determined through other methods).

Polls are not all the same size either.  Does it make sense to aggregate a poll of 500 people with a poll of 7,000 people by giving both polls equal weight? I don't believe it does and in the RCP Average, they do not show margin of error (which is higher with smaller sample sizes), which could be used as a filter for less robust polls.

More recent polls are more telling than older polls.  RCP does account for this by excluding polls over about 2 weeks old. RCP also removes redundant polls where for example a pollster polls twice in the two week period, the older poll gets excluded.

With that in mind I have scraped the RCP polling data and stripped out the duplicates, stripped out polls with no sample size provided (as those two are dubious since they cannot be questioned as to margin of error), stripped out polls that are not of likely voters, and then calculated a weighted average scoring of the total polled across all similar style polls and provided a margin based on that.

Here is what the latest week looks like:

That's only one poll though.  Here's the prior week. 

Better data, but also a bit older.  Here's the last two weeks combined:

I'm seeing a stronger Republican advantage than RCP. I usually do. But it jibes with the sense I'm getting about momentum.  As more recent polls get added I think the change from the prior week above to the current week will solidify more. I expect by early next week we may see enough data to see R+4% looking at just the latest week.

Addendum - just as I finished this about an hour before publication, I see RCP has added a new poll with R+4%.  It doesn't change my overall percentages in the final graph above but supports my theory that +4% seems closer than the +2.3% they are currently showing as their average.

Senate Series: CO - Joe O'Dea

Joe’s focus is simple: Defending working Americans, reducing our national debt, and ensuring a strong and secure America. 

Gas is topping $4 a gallon in Colorado, inflation is the highest it has been in decades, crime has skyrocketed, our national debt has hit $30 trillion, and our foreign policy has been a failure. It’s time for a conservative outsider like Joe to fight for working Americans in Washington D.C.

Senate Series: NC - Ted Budd

 Ted Budd talks real issues that affect real people.

Senate Series: NH - Don Bolduc

 Don Bolduc is the kind of representative who is a real person rather than a politician:

Senate Series: NV - Adam Laxalt

 Trust your eyes Nevada:

October 26, 2022

Senate Series: PA - Dr. Oz

 Pennsylvania, you can choose this:

or this (and this meme is very indicative of the candidate):

Here's more:

Senate Series: WI - Ron Johnson

 Wisconsin, if you don't vote for Ron Johnson, THIS could be your representation in the senate: 

Senate Series: GA - Herschel Walker

Herschel Walker will win his senate seat in Georgia, as he should.  Make sure you give him your support.

Senate Series: WA - Tiffany Smiley

Tiffany Smiley is another candidate in a state that doesn't seem to recognize why she'd be the better choice.  The FAR better choice.  Yes, she's a bit of a longshot but she'd be great for the state.

Senate Series: FL - Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio is not a perfect candidate for Florida, but he's pretty good.  And if it comes down to him or Val Demmings (which it does), there's no comparison: he's miles better.

Senate Series: CT - Leora Levy

Leora Levy is a longshot, but c'mon man, how can you vote for an actual villain in Blumenthal, Connecticut?

Senate Series: OH - JD Vance

 Ohio needs JD Vance. The alternative is unthinkable.

Senate Series: AZ - Blake Masters

Challenger in Arizona, Blake Masters has really tightened the polling gap. He deserves to win and Arizona deserves better than it has gotten from Mark Kelly.

October 25, 2022

Is AOC out?

 It's a longshot but there is some evidence indicating she might be. Mayra Flores would miles better.

The TOP 25 Bloopers, Blunders, and Gaffes

A little light-hearted but unfortunately serious, look at Let's Go Brandon. 

October 24, 2022

The problem when you lie so much

The Democratic party, and particularly in this case, their leader (president Let's Go Brandon) are so invested in the lie that the economy is doing great, that they are hurting their chances in the midterms.

Good on them.

October 23, 2022

October 22, 2022

Midterm prognostications and forecasts

I've been busy and it feels like I haven't been doing as much as I should, or could or have done in previous years regarding the midterm elections.  Time is running low and I'd like to do more.  I'll try as much as possible to get into some analytics but it's time consuming by nature and I'm busy in my personal life, so I'm not entirely optimistic about it coming to fruition.  

In place of that here are a few others who have plausible prognostications for the coming elections.

Red Eagle Politics

The far left Young Turks

Frank Luntz has lost touch

Let's Talk Elections is also left-leaning

Former VP Mike Pence

Five Thirty Eight

And finally, Let's Go Brandon's "thoughts"

October 21, 2022

Meanwhile in Canada - common sense

Common sense has arrived in the Canada's capital.  Unfortunately it's still in the guise of an opposition party, but when conmtrasted with the horrible, terrible, awful leadership that has been Justin Trudeau, it's still great to see. 

October 20, 2022

The always political Let's Go Brandon

 The Strategic Oil Reserve was not meant for politics. Let's Go Brandon doesn't care.

Peter Zeihan's 3 Takeaways from Russia's Usage of Iranian Drones

 The big one is that Russia seems desperate.

Midterms all over the map

Over at FiveThirtyEight, they are predicting a 75% chance of a Republican victory in Congress but only a 39% chance of Republicans taking the Senate. Meanwhile Larry Sabato's sight is putting 214 as at least leaning seats for the Republicans and only 195 for the Democrats and for the senate 49 seats each with two still as toss ups. Yet a lot of others like Red Eagle Politics, based on the RealClearPolitics generic ballot are predicting a Republican blowout.

Why the difference? It probably comes down to confirmation bias on both sides (Democrats and elites vs. Republicans and average Americans).  A fantastic example of that is this clip of Nancy Pelosi:

I get wanting to project confidence, but dismissing outright polling that flies on the face of your narrative smacks of outright denial of reality.  I don't want to be delusional like Nancy Pelosi. So I'm not saying it will be a Republican red wave, but there does seem to be a tailwind in play.

October 19, 2022

American energy for grownups

 We need more refineries.

Gotcha video works in reverse

 Via Bill Whittle,

Republican Congressman caught on hidden camera video makes the stunning confession that he'd like to do what Trump-backing Republicans have been saying publicly for a long time. Anti-Trump PAC founder Scott Dworkin retweets it in an attempt to "make it go viral". At this writing, it has 375 views.

Why?  Because in the undercover video exposé, conservative Congressional Representative David Schweikert (R-AZ6) who is a member of the Congressional Freedom Caucus, said privately exactly what he says publicly.  No scandal, only him telling the truth about his public opinion being truthful.  How that is scandalous is a mystery.

This will end up entrenching voters in Arizona who support David Schweikert and upsetting voters who already despise him. That's a gotcha fail.

Red Pill story

 A personal story worth sharing.

October 18, 2022

Is the Red Wave going to be real (part 2)?

 Like Red Eagle Politics, Tim Pool also seems to think so.

Is the Red Wave going to be real?

 Red Eagle Politics seems to think so:

I tend to agree but I'm not sure of the size.  I would not be surprised by a massive tsunami or by a slim victory.  There's a huge range of possible outcomes remaining.

Is China really crumbling?

 At least their semiconductor industry seems to be.  Here's Peter Zeihan:

Kari Lake vs. CNN

 I'm just gonna let this one play out for itself.

October 14, 2022

Russian refuelling logisitics

The war in Ukraine has exposed Russia as a paper tiger (albeit one with nukes).  Peter Zeihan discusses their logistical shortcomings:

Pelosi insanity

Pelosi has once again proven her disconnect from reality:

Let's Go Brandon's quid pro quo with Saudi Arabia

 Via Tim Pool:

Biden CAUGHT In Quid Pro Quo, Democrats DEMAND Saudi Arabia HELP Them Win Midterms, THREATEN Allies. Democrats wanted OPEC+ to postpone oil reduction only until after the midterms which would have done nothing for Americans in the long run but would have helped Democrats win political victories.
This quid pro quo is beyond anything Trump was accused of and in the case of Trump's impeachment Ukraine denied there being any quid pro quo.
Saudi Arabia is now outright stating the US tried to get them to do this.


Ron Johnson on Hunter Biden's laptop

 Senator Ron Johnson goes into it during a hearing.

YouTube has censored this video. No explanation given so far as I am aware.

Bad retail sales report, bad!

There's a lot to unpack today and not enough time to do so.  Instead,  I'll just share some highlights across a few posts, starting of with some retail expert fears about a really bad recession, like 1970's level bad.  

More bad news with the retail sales report.

Could it be that the Fed's fighting inflation will lead to more quarters of negative GDP?  Absolutely. Higher interest rates are a clear way to slow the economy, and we are already in a technical recession.  Could this recession be one that doesn't hurt employment?   Given the baby boom retirement and a lack of replacement population to fill those jobs, again, absolutely. 

Could it be a stagflation situation?  Given the above two points, absolutely. What will be weird is a combination of high interest rates, with inflation, negative GDP, lower retail sales and yet unfilled jobs and low unemployment.  In that scenario, low unemployment is not a good apple among the bad; it's a recipe for upward pressure on wages and further inflation.  It's a potential feedback loop.  There's a lot to be worried about, even if the GOP win the congress and senate, this track we're on, we may already be too far down it to make a difference in the near term.

October 13, 2022

Inflation is not done (part 2)

The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in today as expected by me; meaning higher than analysts' expectations.  It follows a similar patter to yesterday's Producer Price Index (PPI) September release:

October 12, 2022

Why America needs to help the Ukraine

I realize that this might be an unpopular opinion among many "America first" conservatives but I think it's worth discussing: it's in America's best interest to see the Russian invasion of Ukraine fail. Russia is a belligerent geopolitical actor so long as it remains an authoritarian country (communist, fascist, ologarchy or Putin personal feifdom) because leadership can do much to insulate itself from the hardships it causes for its people as a result of imperial wars of terrirorial acquisition or other criminal behaviors (hacking, supporting terror, international sabotage, etc.). 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine specifically, impacts international trade in oil, wheat, fertilizers, and other goods.  It also denies sovereignty of a sovereign nation which is criminal by it's very nature.  If there is a global rule of law, as minimal and as weirdly dystopic as it is, violating it is criminal and only encourages other nations to do the same if it is not somehow dealt with.

That's all well and good but why is it in the U.S. best interest to see Russia fail in its invasion? Not only would Russian success set a bad precedent (think China's ambitions towards Hong Kong), it would help foil what is potentially their last chance (demographically) at any sort of hegemonic expansion, and they appear to be failing at it:

Keep in mind, Russia is one of only two geopolitical adversaries of America at the moment, the other being China.  Russia's possible failure and future likelihood of being a non-factor in global affairs for decades to come also spells bad news for China:

In this light, it's to America's best interest ("America First") to help the Ukraine.  That does not necessarily mean ,ilitary intervention.  Supplying weapons, applying sanctions, providing intel are all among the option short of boots on the ground.  Boots on the ground risk nuclear retaliation from a seemingly less and less stable Putin.  But there's a lot of other things that can be done.  Yes it costs money at a time America is economcally not at its strongest, but crippling Russia's ability to wage war effectively beyond its own borders is in America's best interest and will provide benefits for decades to come.

I get the non-interventionist mindset and rationale.  I agree with America first too, I just think that America first is not mutually exclusive with helping Ukraine fight off a delusional madman.  In fact there are benefits to America for doing so.  If you are worried about unsustainable costs to American taxpayers, start with laying off 87,000 new IRS agents that add zero value to America's well being. How about starting there instead?   America is good at weaponry, it's not good, clearly, at running a massive beaurocracy, so why not keep doing  what you are good at and stopping doing what is actually hurting America?

Inflation is not done

 Via CNBC, this unsurprising (to many) bit of news:

Wholesale prices rose more than expected in September despite Federal Reserve efforts to control inflation, according to a report Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The producer price index, a measure of prices that U.S. businesses get for the goods and services they produce, increased 0.4% for the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain.

That means more rate hikes are likely to come: 

Inflation has been the economy’s biggest issue over the past year as the cost of living is running near its highest level in more than 40 years.
The Fed has responded by raising rates five times this year for a total of 3 percentage points and is widely expected to implement a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase when it meets again in three weeks.
“Inflationary momentum has built up in the U.S. economy and will persist near-term, keeping the Fed hiking aggressively,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
...Wednesday’s data shows the Fed still has work to do. Indeed, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Tuesday said “there has been no progress on inflation.” Following the PPI release, traders priced in an 81.3% chance of a three-quarter point hike, the same as a day ago.

Tomorrow the more broadly followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September gets released.  It tends to lag behind the PPP, so a decrease tomrrow still does not portend the end of inflation or aneasing of The Fed's aggressive rate hiking to combat inflation.  More pain to come. 

October 11, 2022

"Enough with the woke s@#t!"

The Conservative Party of Canada is rapidly developing a backbone.  You see it in their new leader, and you see it in their common sense members of parliament like Michelle Rempel Garner, when they are so incensed they swear. This happened about a week ago, but it's worth sharing her obvious level of frustration.  Of course she's a dignified parliamentarian and immediately apologized for her language, but she said it in the first place because of how insanely leftward too many people, particularly in the Liberal Party have drifted.

Tulsi Gabbard out at Democratic Party

She's done with it.  She was one of their few connections to reality too.  That's probably why she finally had to leave.

October 10, 2022

PayPal is part of the evil technocracy now?

 Is there no respite from this? Probably not, so along as we sheepishly allow it.  

October 9, 2022

October 8, 2022

A brillliant delivery of common sense, from Canada

 God willing, this is Canada's next prime minister Pierre Poilievre.

Did the Ukrainian's just take out the Crimean bridge?

 Um, wow.

Red Eagle Politics' House predictions

Red Eagle Politics latest predictions on House elections in the coming 2022 midterm elections.  Does he see a wave coming? Take a look:

I'm hoping he's close and if he's off, he's undercounting Republican gains.

And why did you think this would go any differently? OPEC cuts

OPEC nations actually care about their own economic well being, unlike Let's Go Brandon and the rest of the leftist cabal who either knowingly or due to a lack of understanding, are harming America. They care about their own national interest rather than an agenda.  While they have agendas, they typically align with their national interest.  Most sane countries act in a way that helps themselves.  Even most insane countries do so, even though they may do so with ill intent or in insane ways.  But it is truly insane to act in a way that undeniably hurts your own nation.

Only Democrats do that.

Here Peter Zeihan discusses OPEC's oil production cuts, even after the Let's Go Brandon begging for oil tour.

October 5, 2022

Canada: A marked contrast between a brilliant leader and a bag of hockey pucks

Canada will have a stark choice in the next election, a brilliant leader and a bag of hockey pucks in black face, masquerading as someone who has a clue about anything.  I'll leave it to you to figure out which is which.

October 4, 2022

Democrats self-destruction on display

As long as people can see this stuff, Democrats should never win.  This is why they want control of the internet (and not entirely unrelated, the science). When they completely control what you are allowed to see, they can prevent these slip-ups from being seen and they can continue to lie to voters.

UPDATE: Apparently this video was made private because YouTube sucks. And it kinda proves the point about the video.

Google & The World Economic Forum

 "We own the science"?????? Geez.

October 3, 2022

Evidence of Red Wave?

 Is this evidence or an outlier poll? Nevada turning red is a big deal.

I'm always skeptical of polling without more information so I'm very cautiously optimistic given this news, but optimisitic nonetheless. 

October 2, 2022

The third foreign indicator of Republican midterm win already happened.

Remember when I mentioned how England and Italy both have moved towards populism?  It's part of a backlash against woke progressive social justice elitist crappy governance.  It's about time, in every single case.  Speaking of which, I forgot to mention that it also happened in Sweden back in September:

Sweden’s Sept. 11 elections shocked intellectuals throughout the West. The Sweden Democrats – a nationalist-populist party founded in 1988 with neo-Nazi allegiances but which turned away from fascism in the early 2000s and now explicitly rejects it – gave the country’s right a governing majority by earning the second-largest number of votes. The intellectuals’ shock, however, shows that they have not been paying attention. Had they been examining voters’ discontents in Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and giving thought to the destabilizing consequences for liberal democracy in the West posed by elite imperiousness, overreach, and underperformance, they would have seen the right-wing reaction brewing.

The same thing is likely to happen in the United States. In 2016 the U.K. votes to exit the Eurpoean Union.  The Brexit vote would foreshadow the election of president Trump later that year. This year's midterms have seen three precursors to a Republican victory in the House and Senate.  Let's hope the tea leaves portend the same for America this time around.

Sunday verse


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