Did the Ukrainian's just take out the Crimean bridge?

 Um, wow.

Ungrateful Karzai sides with Russia on Crimea

Via Fox News, Afghan leader Hamid Karzai has sided with Russia on Crimea.  It may be self-serving out of fear of another Soviet style invasion in light of Putin's aggressive expansionism.  But given everything the United States has done for him, it's ungrateful and an unwarranted response.  Granted, it's not unexpected for Karzai to be completely self-serving.  But how about just shutting up and saying nothing?

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, already at odds with the U.S. over a vital security pact, snubbed western leaders once again by joining the likes of Syria and Venezuela in backing Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Karzai's office released a statement over the weekend saying Afghanistan "respects the free will of the people of Crimea to decide about their own future."

The statement said "we respect the decision the people of Crimea took through a recent referendum that considers Crimea as part of the Russian Federation."

Karzai weighed in on the Ukraine crisis shortly before President Obama flew overseas for meetings with European partners. The Obama administration and European allies have described the Crimea referendum, and Russia's decision to annex the peninsula, as "illegitimate."

I guess that being grateful would be too much to expect.

Obama's sanctions could have the reverse effect of intentions

The sanctions announced today by president Obama (if you blinked you probably missed it) , could end up having the reverse effect of that intended by the administration.  According to the Moscow Times, senior Russian officials envision a scenario where sanctions boost the Russian economy, or at least do no harm.  Certainly there would be no consequences from anything announced so far that would deter Russia's intent.

...But many commentators immediately said that the measures — which targeted senior officials including Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, Federation Council speaker Valentina Matviyenko, and longtime Kremlin aide Vladislav Surkov — would not deter the Kremlin from reversing course in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated the same attitude, saying that Western criticism was "not a reason for any kind of adjustments" to Russia's foreign policy, Komsomolskaya Pravda reported late Sunday.

Whether Russian economists see it as no deterrent doesn't really matter. If that's the perception in Russian leadership, their actions, in the short term at least, are being aided by sanctions that 'might actually help' Russia's economy:

Some pro-Kremlin pundits said the sanctions could even have the opposite of the intended effect, saying they would help fight corruption by officials who are banned by law from having assets abroad and that broader trade sanctions, if imposed, could stimulate economic reforms in Russia.

President Obama may need to go back to the drawing board very quickly.

Crimean ballots don't matter

Crimean voters were at the polls today for a referendum.  The issue: to join Russia now, or join Russia later. That's the list of choices. 

Ballots were being counted, and the first numbers from the referendum on whether Ukraine's Crimea region should join Russia or become an independent state were expected in a matter of hours after polls closed Sunday night, an election official said.

Crimean Electoral Commission head Mikhail Malyshev said more than 80% of voters had cast ballots by the time polls closed at 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET). Preliminary results will be announced at 10:30 p.m. local time (4:30 p.m ET) Sunday.

The United States has already said it expects the Black Sea peninsula's majority ethnic Russian population to vote in favor of joining Russia. Moscow has strongly backed the referendum. The White House released a statement that said the vote was "administered under threats of violence and intimidation from a Russian military intervention that violates international law."

The referendum results don't matter. Threats aside, there's no 'NO' option for voters. The referendum is flawed. Even a weak foreign policy president can't ignore the escalation that will necessarily result from events in Crimea.  

The next step from the E.U. and the U.S. is likely to be sanctions.  Russia may yet feel emboldened to consider a similar soft invasion in eastern Ukraine.  But what happens next is still a matter of conjecture.

Russia's connect the dots

Connect the dots on events in Russia.  I'm not talking about the Ukraine, but clearly all of this is related to the crisis in the Crimea.  We know that Putin is a totalitarian.  He wants Ukrainian territory.  He wants as much as he can get away with taking without consequences.  But I'm talking about connecting the dots with respect to something else entirely.  What I'm talking about are the covert actions that are going on while the Ukrainian crisis plays out. 

Obama's wrong again: Crimea is a win for Putin.

Obama yesterday claimed that Putin was not being clever strategically in rushing into Crimea.  Obama is 100% wrong. Russian leader Putin claims he's interested in protecting ethnic Russians in Crimea which is why he's sent "plainclothes" Russian military into the region after Ukraine's recent .upheaval.  But Russia has ulterior motives.  It's about the money, and the strategic military value of the region.

Crimea has some strategic importance to Russia.  Consider:

The Black Sea is Russia's only warm-water port.

Though Crimea is recognized worldwide as a part of Ukraine, the Russian Navy has kept its Black Sea Fleet stationed at a naval base in Sevastopol (in southern Crimea) since the late 1700s. In 2010, Russia negotiated an agreement that allows the country to share the all-important Sevastopol naval base through 2042, in exchange for deep discounts of about $40 billion on natural gas from Russia.

The Ukraine, which is a very big producer of corn and grain, sends much of it's exports through Crimean ports.  Crimea also has it's own agricultural base and Crimea also serves as a tourist destination.  These things are important for Russia economically and for helping to feed Russians.  Having Crimea under Russian control benefits Russia economically, and reduces the dependence on the Ukraine.

And let's not overlook the fact that an international crisis increases gas prices, which Russia exports to Europe.  As tensions stay high, Russia can generate additional revenue as a result.  Obama  just doesn't understand geo-political strategy.  He's once again proving that for him, it's about making himself look good.  He's trying to save face rather than looking at the situation realistically and making decisions accordingly.

Ukraine vs the 2014 elections.

A friend of mine thinks that what is going on in the Ukraine is the ultimate test for Obama. The way he sees it is that this will have worldwide geopolitical implications for the United States, all dependent on how Obama reacts to the crisis in the Ukraine with the Russians demanding they surrender Crimea to Russia.  He also postulates that Obama could use this opportunity to distract from scandals and failures of his administration for the past five plus years.

It's the latter point that intrigues me.  Obama by talking Putin down from the ledge of all out war, could come across as both diplomatic and strong at the same time.  This represents a golden opportunity for him.  If Russia does back away from it's demands that it may now be claiming it didn't really make, and Obama claims he talked them away from annexation of the Crimea, it could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the midterm elections.