March 30, 2020

COVID-19 different graphs show different things

In Canada, the government has been providing daily updates and two graphs show different parts of the COVID-19 story.  The first graph shows the total infections curve.  


This shows that the infections curve may be peaking.   This is the curve that they talk about flattening.  To be clear this number will only go up unless one of three situations arise:
  1. Infected people go into remission (i.e. are 'cured')
  2. Infected people die
  3. No new infections occur

This is different from the curve below, which shows even more positive results for the number of newly reported cases by day:


The daily new infections appear to have already peaked in Canada. This shows that newly reported infections have dropped off considerably.  That means either social distancing is working, Canadians are not testing enough, or are reporting less due to social distancing.  The latter two scenarios seem less likely, although there may be a combination of effects in play.

In any case, my main point is that the same data can be interpreted in different ways.  That's important to keep in mind.

March 27, 2020

Duplicity for me but not for thee

Joe Biden's on-going #MeToo issues get the duplicitous yawn from the mainstream media:

Friday Musical Interlude - Sirius

Alan Parsons Project's epic sounding instrumental Sirius.

March 26, 2020

This is not a conspiracy theory, it's proof

You get 1 shot, we get 50.
A lot of people both left and right have been claiming that the coronavirus is a trial run for martial law.  That's crazy, it's an existential threat and proper precautions need to be taken.  What the coronavirus actually is, is proof that decentralization works better than centralization.  It's proof of the argument against totalitarianism.  And the proof has nothing to do directly with China.

With Democrats arguing that president Trump needs to take radical action, evidence suggests otherwise.  Take centralization to the point of absurdity - one world government.  If there was a centrally planned response, in that scenario the world would have to pray that the response was the correct one.  Otherwise the fatalities and other impacts could be catastrophic to an epic degree.  Imagine that the world was run by Italy instead of South Korea.  The infection rate and fatalities would be far worse.

Years ago I was arguing what I called the 50 Experiments Theorem.  50 states trying 50 different approaches to combat the virus is better than the federal government mandating one approach for all - one approach that could very well be quite a bad approach. The idea is that the more things that are tried the more chances you have one of your experiments being successful, and everyone else having the opportunity to copy the successful approach and learn from the failed approaches too.   More broadly there are over 170 countries, so that offers a lot more experiments.  Those who are in favor of globalism and opposed to decentralization argue for political homogeneity (whether purposefully or accidentally).  They argue for one experiment in times of crisis.  That is an extremely high risk approach.  

Five years from now, scientist and planners will have learned what countries reacted smartly and which ones did not.  Those learnings can be applied more universally to the inevitable next outbreak.  That's a good thing, isn't it?

Decentralization means more chances to solve problems because it means more people trying more things and offers a higher chance of a successful result.  By extension, that is proof that capitalism will always work better than socialism to solve society's problems.  It always allows for more people trying more things because they have the freedom to try.  
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