November 20, 2018

Prison reform. But why?

This via CNBC:
The new bipartisan criminal justice reform bill backed by President Donald Trump could reduce thousands of sentences and save the federal government millions of dollars in incarceration costs.

Yet even with broad support and modest goals — it would affect only federal prisoners, a tiny slice of the nation's overall prison population — the bill known as the First Step Act is at risk of stalling in Congress.

At an event at the White House last week, Trump announced his intention to sign the bill, which his daughter and son-in-law, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, have both publicly endorsed and pushed forward in the administration.

"I'll be waiting with my pen," said the president, who noted that the bill would reverse some federal policies that "disproportionately affected the African-American community."

The goal is to pass it before a divided Congress takes office in January. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Trump last week that this is unlikely due to time constraints, according to a report by The New York Times.
What?  The Republicans have a lame duck congress for a few more weeks and a chance to finish off a number of legislative items before congress is turned over to Democrat control.  How about a wall? How about that second tax cut? How about anything else? Why prison reform?

I think I know. It's possible that the president sees this as a low hanging fruit item.  Think of what passing it would mean for the president;  because it disproportionately affects African Americans, it can only help his approval rating in that community.  

In addition he can say that he has always been willing to work with Democrats on common ground items.  That serves two purposes, it can deflect from claims he is a danger to democracy or it can serve as a counter-punch to all the threats of impeachment if they do get it signed; the president can point out that Democrats are willing to work with him at certain times and therefore he can not be this horrible evil (or that Democrats are just as evil).  That is all assuming the president expects it to get stalled prior to the new congress and gets taken up as soon as the house changes hands.

And maybe, it's just bait.  

November 18, 2018

Sunday verse - the book of Genesis

From the Bible Project, an explainer on the book of Genesis.

November 17, 2018

November 14, 2018

Conservative to distraction

Think the DemoNcrats (not a typo) are counting on your fatigue, distraction and short attention span to lie, cheat and steal their way to continued power?

Think again.  And again.  Think again, this time think really hard.

Liberals/progressives/Democrats/socialists/communists think that the truth will be forgotten, and the lies will take hold because they repeat things often enough and you are not focused.  And sadly, the infection is inexplicably spreading

Meanwhile these progressive liberals are patting themselves on the back because they are better than you, in every single way.

Now is no time to falter.

November 12, 2018

Cheat fatigue and the Republican soul.

A long time ago (2008), in a state far, far away (Minnesota), Al Fraken was able to steal an election.   Long before that, Democrats tried to steal a presidency. More than once. Now they are trying to steal the governorship in Florida.  They just got away with it in Arizona too.

Wait, go back - wasn't that the same scandal-ridden Broward county election official in 2000 who is trying to steal a win for a socialist Democrat today?  Yep.

The cheating is ridiculous, and Democrats count on a number of things to happen to get away with this sort of crap. (1) people won't notice - it's a week out from the election, the top level winners are set, so these less-national races might get overlooked (2) they have a compliant media to spin the "every vote count" narrative, which usually means - count the votes with the extra ballots we've been stuffing in since we realized we lost (and don't exclude the ballots we stuffed in before that either). (3) fatigue.

That last one is important.  Democrats are relentless in their pursuit of power and they hope that those who want to drain the swamp just run out of their willingness to fight back in the face of absolute corruption - cheat fatigue.

I get that, I'm exhausted at this point trying to combat Democrat malfeasance.  It's an endless deluge of toxic filth and those of us who fight back feel like we are trying to fight a tsunami.  It cannot be done alone, and Republicans, Tea Party groups and various conservative Think Tanks are at best only marginally aligned on message, and effort.

The Republican soul is one of liberty and individuality, not massive organized collaborative efforts.  There is strength and weakness in that, and it may be time to make a change in how we organize and fight the anarchy and bedlam of massive progressive efforts designed to wear us down like individuals rocks in an ocean tide.

November 11, 2018

Sunday verse

Because it's Veteran's Day, a Bible verse about liberty.

Veteran's Day

Remember and honor those who served in the cause of liberty.

November 10, 2018

November 9, 2018

November 7, 2018

How to handle Jim Acosta

CNN's Jim Acosta wants to own presidential press conferences. Here today after the election, he's clearly rude, hostile and highly opinionated, not journalistic. And even a little violent towards the woman who tries to pass the microphone to the next questioner.

How does "hundreds of miles away" equate to "that's not an invasion"?  There's no therefore that can make that true.  That's not my main point. 

If president Trump wants to stop Acosta from being an ass, there's an easy way to do it.  Of course the President doesn't really need stop Acosta, because he makes the perfect buffoon of a foil for the president.  Here's how you do it.

The president should at his next news conference go to Jim Acosta first.  Then when Acosta tries to ask more than one question, the president should clear the room and dedicate the press conference to just Acosta.  And if he tries it again, do it again.  And again.  Do it as often as necessary to make the rest of the media resent Acosta, and by proxy CNN.

Tell the room that Acosta wants to monopolize the briefing and conference and that he's being accommodated. Turn the media on itself, then stand back and watch the knives come out for each other. Get popcorn, be seated and enjoy.

Election results fallout - not my congress

Not all of the results of the 2018 midterms are in but there are some takeaways already.

The Democrats appear to have taken Congress, this is going to result in a blizzard of subpoenas on the president and absolute gridlock on legislation.  That's because Republicans expanded their lead in the Senate.

Some takeaways from that:
-Donald Trump is not the anti-Christ, he cannot induce winning at will. Yes, he wins a lot, but just like president Obama, not all the time, and his winning is not transferable.  Perhaps his winning is a little bit transferable, and definitely more transferable, but not as much as he'd like.  He is not infallible in winning elections.

-The electorate has become more polarized in large swaths of the country - Red districts becoming more red, and blue districts becoming more blue.

-2020 seems less safe today for the president than it did two weeks ago. The president and Republicans will have to continue to deliver on the economy and convince voters gridlock is Democrats fault as they have no real agenda.

-The president is now going to be tested. Can he get a wall built?  Can he get more tax cuts? Can he deal with Democrats in congress?  President Trump was really let down by Republicans during his first two years it is going to be felt during the next two years because nothing will get done, except for more Russia investigation.

-Republicans retain a majority of governorships but it has been reduced.  This also has implications for 2020, the census and future redistricting

-The polls and projections were, at the end, a lot less wrong than in 2016. Conservatives would do well to not disregard the polling implications completely as we have for the last two years.

-This is not the end of the world for conservatives.  Nevertheless, wouldn't it not feel great to march in the streets shouting  "NOT MY CONGRESS!" ? Not that we will, we're more mature than that.

November 4, 2018

Sunday verse

Joel 2:18-20.

Midterms Matter: Governor Roundup, don't forget

In state governorships and statehouses, this election cycle is extremely critical.  That's because those elected now, will impact the next census in 2020.  It will impact redistricting and that will impact future federal elections. Now is the time to not only impact the midterms, but to impact future midterms as well.  Vote straight Republican tickets, even if you are not thrilled with local candidates - that's how important this election cycle is.

That's not to say there are not some great candidates in the statewide elections this year.  Here are some governor candidates that really deserve your support to whom I'd like to draw your attention.  Some of these races are very close. All of them are critical. These are all important elected offices, and don't forget to also vote for the Republican candidates in your local state houses as well.

Florida: Please turn out to support Ron DeSantis.

Georgia: Please turn out to support Brian Kemp.

Iowa: Please turn out to support Kim Reynolds.

Wisconsin: Please turn out to support Scott Walker.

Ohio: Please turn out to support Mike DeWine.

Kansas: Please turn out to support Kris Kobach.

Nevada: Please turn out to support Adam Laxlt.

Arizona: Please turn out to support Doug Ducey.

Oklahoma: Please turn out to support Kevin Stitt.

Oregon: Please turn out to support Knute Buehler.

Colorado: Please turn out to support Walker Stapleton.

Maine: Please turn out to support Shawn Moody.

Michigan: Please turn out to support Bill Schuette.

Minnesota: Please turn out to support Jeff Johnson.

New Mexico: Please turn out to support Steve Pearce.

Rhode Island: Please turn out to support Allan Fung.

Connecticut: Please turn out to support Bob Stefanowski.

Illinois: Please turn out to support Bruce Rauner.

Pennsylvania: Please turn out to support Scott Wagner.

Your support matters. Thank you.

November 3, 2018

Midterms Matter: In New Mexico 1st District, please support Janice Arnold-Jones

For Pete's sake, New Mexico 1st district, DO NOT send self-serving corruptocrat Deb Haaland back to Washington as your congressional representative - especially given the quality alternative that is available in Janice Arnold-Jones..

Deb Halland is running on her heritage, even as she disgraces it:

But it gets worse. She's a self-serving representative to the point where she is burying complaints because she doesn't like the implications.

Janice Arnold-Jones offers a better option for the state.  Please support Janice Arnold-Jones for congress. Check out her website for more information.  Volunteer, donate and vote for her on election day.

Midterms Matter: In Oregon's 5th District please support Mark Callahan

Oregon's 5th district is a foregone conclusion according to experts.  But experts don't vote in local elections.  Experts don't look at the qualities of the candidates, they only look at polls.  That's a shame because if they looked at the qualities in Oregon 5, a few things would become clear to them.

Firstly, and most importantly, Mark Callahan cares. Mark has deep Christian roots and was taught early in his life that his word is his bond. Mark believes that one needs to have honor, integrity, decency, humility, and character to serve the American people. He's running against a self-serving incumbent who does not share those values and does not care about his state.

Mark's opponent has been hit by embarrassment after conflict-of-interest-scandal after conflict-of-interest-scandal.  He's out for himself, not Oregon.

Make no mistake, Mark Callahan is an underdog in this race, but he can win if voters care enough about their state.  But to win, he needs your help.  There is still time to donate, to volunteer and to check out his stance on the issues at his website.  And most importantly, there is time still to vote.  Please support Mark.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In California 24, please support Justin Fareed

In California's 24th congressional district, results matter.  Proper representation matters.  Justin Fareed is not a career politician.  He's a hard worker. He's a visionary.  He's a fighter.

He knows taxes are just too high.

He's not a politician, he's a local man with the same values as California.  He's no do-nothing, careerist politician like his establishment lackey opponent.  Justin Fareed's common sense pragmatism is in line with voters' values.  But to represent the district, he needs your help to the finish line in this tight race.  Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote. 

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In West Virginia 3rd District please support Carol Miller

Carol Miller is defending her congressional seat in West Virginia's 3rd district against a pretty radical opponent.  She's leading in most polls, as she should be - but every vote matters.  Carol Miller puts West Virginia first.

Her opponent is a radical leftist but still an establishment kind of guy.  Why?  Because the liberal establishment is just as radical as they are corrupt.

Carol Miller needs your support to counter the radical leftist agenda her opponent supports, and to provide meaningful and purposeful representation in the district.  Please support her efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out her positions on her website. And by all means - vote. 

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In Virginia 2nd, please support Scott Taylor

In 2016, Scott Taylor defeated a 16-year incumbent Republican in an open seat primary election in Virginia’s Second District. Scott won the general election with 62% of the vote and in January 2017, he was sworn-in to the U.S. House of Representatives representing Virginia’s 2nd District.  The House Republican Steering Committee appointed Scott to the House Appropriations Committee. He is the only freshman Member of Congress appointed to an ‘A’ committee.  This year he is up for re-election.

The race in this district has seemingly tightened in October, and Scott Taylor needs your support - donate, check out his website, and please make sure you vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In Ohio 12th District, please support Troy Balderson

Ohio 12 is likely going to re-elect Troy Balderson on November 6th.  But every vote matters, just as what Troy Balderson stands for matters.  Just as solving problems matters.

Please support Troy Balderon in this election; donate, volunteer and check out his website. Most importantly, by all means vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In New York 11th District, please support Daniel Donovan

Republican incumbent Daniel Donovan in New York's 11th District as of late October was holding onto a slim lead over his Democrat opponent that was just outside the poll's margin of error.  In other words, this looks like a close race.  If you are a conservative, common sense, America first voter on Staten Island, please support Dan Donovan for congress.

America needs more of this:

and more of this

...and America needs less of this covert progressivism:

Saturday Learning Series: Geography (The difference between Arab countries)

As an aside from the regular geography reviews of individual countries, this episode looks at the differences between Arabic countries.

November 2, 2018

Must See: Trump @ War

This is a must see, must share documentary on the Trump presidency.

Republican hold in congress?

The Economist indicated today that Democrats would need to have a lead on the generic congressional ballot of about 7% to take control of Congress.  That is because of factors like clustering and such, which are explained in the video link above.  Anything short of 7% and the Republicans probably maintain control of the House. Let's take that analysis at face value. What the upcoming midterm elections hold is not clear. However, what is certain to me, is that there is not going to be a big Blue Wave.

I looked at the polls taken in 2018, month by month (based on the final polling date of a given poll), of only polls where likely voters are questioned.  That's because polls of all adults or registered voters tend to be misleading. Also rather than applying a flat average, I use a weighted average as some polls are three times the size of others and therefore carry a different level of statistical significance, margin of error etc. 

Here's what I see:

In October, the lead for Democrats is only 6 points.  That's close to the 7% they'll need to win the House.  And what appears better for Democrats is that this is an increasing percentage over the last 3 months.  But as a conservative I'm not worried, because this analysis does not even look at voter crosstabs and weightings between Democrats/Independents/Republicans.  And the methodology of determining likely voters can vary from poll to poll too.

In aggregate, the RealClearPolitics averages are not unimportant however, because they can be directionally indicative.   

I dove a little further.  It looks like Democrat-favorable polls peaked in the immediately prior buildup and immediate wake of the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation on October 6th.

Furthermore there's an NBC/Marist poll putting Democrats at +9.  I discounted that source in 2016 in the presidential elections for good reason, and I'm inclined to do the same her.  On the Republican favoring side, Rasmussen has Democrats only at +3. If you exclude those 3 (and I'm almost ready to hop back on the Rasmussen bandwagon, but for now, I'll hold off), that leaves just one poll in late October mattering. Reuters/Ipsos has Democrats +7.

Right now it looks close, but there's still a week left and there are a few polls left to come in that will probably be much more relevant.  But if I were a betting man, right now I'd predict a stalemate, with Democrats making some gains but not quite enough to take the House.

That's not my final prediction just yet, but at this point there sure does not look like a 35 to 40 seat gain Blue Wave in the House to me.

Midterms Matter: In North Carolina 13th District , please support Ted Budd

North Carolina's 13th district is a generally Republican district but you can never take other voters for granted.  Incumbent Republican Ted Budd has led in the polls, but that doesn't mean he will win, if every common sense conservative in the district expects other voters to do the lifting of showing up to vote.

Ted didn't do that and neither should you.

Please vote for Ted Budd on November 16th.

Midterms Matter: In Michigan 7th District, please support Tim Walberg

There's been no polling I can find in Michigan 7, where incumbent Republican Tim Walberg is defending his seat in this Republican leaning congressional district.  Tim should win the district, given his track record but voters should not take that for granted.

Tim is fighting for real-world issues, whether they are politically popular or not.

Please vote for Tim Walberg on November 6th.

Friday Musical Interlude - A pro-Trump song

Warning: coarse language .
2nd Warning: it's great.

Midterms Matter: Illinois 13th needs Rodney Davis

In Illinois 13th, incumbent Republican Rodney Davis is holding on to a slim lead.  This district needs Rodney Davis because of what he stands for, in fact the country needs more of it.

Rodney Davis stands against hate.

He stands for transparency and accountability.

His opponent, not so much.

Rodney Davis needs your support to win.  Please support him; volunteer, donate and most importantly vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In CA 50, please support Duncan Hunter.

A race that appears to be tightening is the race for California's 50th congressional district.  Republican incumbent Duncan Hunter has continued to lead but the latest poll has him with at +3, which is within the poll's margin of error.  Duncan Hunter is a results oriented representative and deserves to be re-elected.

Please vote for Duncan Hunter. The alternative is really radical.  Dangerously and subversively so. Get out and vote for Duncan Hunter on November 6th. National security is an existential concern.
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