January 18, 2018

The frightening addendum to my last post

Previously I posited that there were a lot of things that the president is counting on with respect to his agenda and the 2018 midterm elections. They might each fall in his favor to enough of a degree that the Republicans might do quite well in November. But they might not.

Here's the frightening addendum to that scenario.  The other thing the president might be counting on is that should the Republicans get shellacked in the November 2018 midterms, maybe he's counting on the fact that he can work with Democrats too.  He's governed as a right of center Republican so far, but that could simply be because that's how he got to where he is.

It's a frightening scenario and it's likely not the case, but as a conservative, it's enough to keep you up at night.  The only way not to find out if his Plan C is to revert to liberal positions is to ensure Republicans win in the 2018 midterms.  That's up to you and me as much as it is the GOP and president Trump.

Government Shutdown, Trump, Durbin and "The heat"

Last week the president met with members of both parties to discuss DACA, immigration, and everyone's wishlist. It was well received. It was a master stroke of refutation of the mainstream media's Fake News meme that's he's senile and dangerous (especially when followed in short order by a doctor's analysis that Trump himself requested, indicating he was in excellent mental health).  But that's not the real push here for president Trump.  He even said he'd take the heat for any bi-partisan bill put to him on immigration. Similarly, Democrats had an ulterior agenda as well.

Dick Durbin immediately tried to quiet any praise being received by the president's well managed meeting by asserting, without any real substantiation, that the president made racist remarks towards Haiti and African countries. He did that for either one (or both) of two reasons. 

  1. He wanted to cut off any potential change in the narrative that president Trump is unfit for the presidency, and
  2. Democrats are angling for a government shutdown (which they can count on the mainstream media to pin the blame on Republicans)

But president Trump clearly had an agenda as well.  He wants a wall because it was a campaign promise.  He wants a budget deal.  Knowing the Democrats would tie the DACA issue to a government shutdown thinking they have all the leverage, there's no doubt he had a Plan B.

In fact, that may have been a covert signal to Republicans that if the deal fell through, they would not have to worry about the fallout.  The heat he said he'd take may have been not so much about DACA as it was about the potential government shutdown and the 2018 midterm elections.  So on to Plan B - Durbin's outrageous claims are what killed the DACA deal and have led to a possible government shutdown. 

President Trump is no stranger to taking the heat.  It's what he's been doing since he announced his candidacy.  The reason he is so persistent at firing back is because he is persistently being fired at by the media.  He has the bully pulpit of the presidency to have his voice heard.  He uses Twitter to go around the media and directly to his supporters.  He's counting on his ability to stand firm in the face of a shutdown and not have the Republicans shellacked in the 2018 midterms.  He's counting on a robust economy to put the wind to his back in the argument on the budget and on immigration.  He's counting on his supporters to continue to back him, and therefore Republican candidates in the 2018 midterms regardless of what polls are saying (and the pollsters did not tell the correct story in 2016, despite being within the margin of error - he may be counting on that scenario too).  And he's counting on support for him personally to not only exceed what pollsters are seeing but also to extend to the Republicans in congress.

That's a lot of things to count on but they are not meant to be counted on individually.  He's hoping for some strength in each of those areas, to varying degrees, to

matter come November.  He's right - to some extent each of those things will help him.  What's not clear is the extent to which each will help and whether cumulatively they will turn the Blue Tide of November Red. The economy alone should make a huge difference - I believe it will - but it remains to be seen.

Lined up against those things are the mainstream media, a "Republican-caused" government shutdown, apparently low job approval for the president and potential Republican disunity and the perception on the left that the president is mentally incompetent.

The shutdown is a gamble for Republicans and the president.  Caving to Democrat demands on DACA and immigration or anything else is also a risk.  What it comes down to is whether this truly is a divided country. Are voters entrenched in their ideologies regardless of any of the factors above?  If that's the case, don't expect a blue wave or a red wave in the midterms.  Expect gains by both parties exactly where you'd expect to see them - in their home field advantage areas.  Recent one-off special cases like Roy Moore's loss in Alabama are just that - one-offs. The district by district and state by state elections, with few exceptions, will perform as historically expected. That for Republicans is not only not bad news, it's good news for 2018.

President Trump is winning 2018

Let's see if I can encapsulate president Trump's economic miracle of 2017 and 2018 so far with just a few pertinent observations:

  1. The Dow Jones Industrial average in early 2018 is even better than 2017's impressive performance. In fact the latest surge smashed the Top 10 1000 point gains in terms of speed of ascent.
  2. Apple is going to pay $38 Billion in taxes and invest heavily in America and American jobs
  3. Jobless claims are at their lowest level since 1973
  4. African American unemployment is at an all-time low and despite a decade low overall unemployment rate best, things are poised to get better still.
What an incredible turnaround. What a remarkable economic performance by the American people that the president has unleashed. This is what success looks like. THIS, could be the new normal if the American people are smart enough to recognize what's been done so far and what more can be done still. The 2018 midterms SHOULD reward this performance. But the mainstream media really don't want that to happen.

If this were at the end of president Obama's first term, could you imagine the headlines and praise he'd be receiving from the Mainstream Media and also the footnotes about the witch hunt by scurrilous Republican sore losers of the previous election? But that didn't happen under Obama's watch. Instead he infected the economy with a Cartereque malaise and was praised anyway. That's what you call Fake News.

January 17, 2018

Oprah, president Trump ruined it for ya

This is rich.
Americans love Oprah Winfrey. But they aren’t exactly clamoring for the media mogul and former talk-show host to challenge President Donald Trump in 2020.

A majority of voters across several polls don’t think Winfrey should run for the White House, according to polls conducted since Winfrey’s much-heralded speech at a Hollywood awards show launched a round of presidential speculation. Even among Democratic voters, more say she shouldn’t run for president than should...

And despite the persistent disapproval of Trump’s job performance thus far, voters are still open to political neophytes as presidential candidates — though Democratic voters are more likely to say they want candidates with experience in elected office.
The latter paragraph about sums it up; Trump supporters should have no issue with Oprah Winfrey running for president because (a) lack of government experience is not a disadvantage, and perhaps even an asset and (b) she and her liberal policies would lose. The poll itself somewhat validates the latter point. The right would never vote for her, but apparently neither would the left. Democrats, whose policies Oprah would espouse, view president Trump's lack of government experience as a detriment, would as a result tend to lean away from Oprah. Even Oprah's ardent fans probably don't want her going through the meat grinder of presidential politicking.

The result is not surprising, Oprah is not the preferred candidate of the Left, Hollywood excepted.

CNN, purveyors of your favorite end-of-Trump fantasies

CNN, no doubt disappointed by president Trump's apparent mental well-being as a possible means to have him removed from office, have replaced it with their own fantasy Trump-death-porn.  No kidding.

Talk about being in denial and just hoping that something, anything might happen. 

January 15, 2018

You're getting the American Zeitgeist wrong

Democrats want the national zeitgeist to forever remain that the Republicans are the party of the rich, while the Democrats are the party of the working class and the poor.  They are wrong, and that notion must be dispelled or it could return Democrats to power someday and re-orient the nation on yet another ruinous path.  And while the Democrats have historically been pretty successful at perpetuating that myth, it means that you're getting the American zeitgeist wrong.

Republican's fairly or not, once were considered the party of the rich.  They no longer are.  From Goldwater to Reagan, Republicans have stressed individual liberty as the most important thing that they value, and that America's founders valued.  It is a unique enshrinement of such a principle in human history. Sure, other countries have varying degrees liberty and will certainly pay lip service to it, no other country has ever been founded on the principle of liberty and justice for all. Clearly, Republicans have got that right - liberty is innate and not a government given right; if government can give it they can also take it away. Indeed, Democrats have never stopped the march towards taking away those rights, at least during my lifetime.

Back prior to the 1920's and in the 1930's Americans faced a different set of challenges than they do today.  There were indeed companies that took advantage of workers. It was never all companies to be clear, but there were sweat shops and unsafe conditions and poor wages.  And then, there were few jobs, and the Great Depression.  It heralded the start of government as the solution. Minimum wages, social security, safer job conditions, unionization and welfare.

At the time those things were necessary. The biggest threat to the individual health and welfare and liberty was big business, but now it's big government. They are the oppressors of the working class. As much as 70 years of various forms of welfare and social safety nets have not lifted the less advantaged out of poverty.  It has not eliminated slums, or made everyone well off.  America has progressed not because of welfare but in spite of it. 

The very fact that government overreach has been viscerally realized by tens of millions of Americans is the reason Donald Trump is now president Trump. His efforts to put money back in the hands of corporations, and the wealthy and the working class is about to explode what remains of the Democrat myth that really does not reflect the American zeitgeist. They nevertheless, continue to push that notion hard.  It's the only narrative they have to offer.

Conservatives understand that the economy and well being of individuals is not a zero-sum game.  Republicans not so long ago understood that you can help the rich at the same time you help the poor, that helping business is helping individuals and vice versa.  Republicans understood the notion of interdependence and that helping one is actually helping all.  They may have forgotten that in some establishment corners in recent years.  But president Trump in his vulgar, unpolished and uncouth way has dragged Republicans, and to a lesser degree so far, America in general, back to that reality. If the price for the realization is a vulgar president, you are getting of very easy America.

As unseemly as president Trump might be, he is a painful medicine for America; his presidency, if the economic success that follows his Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is as expected, will lay the foundation for an understanding that freedom is paramount, that a strong economy with a level playing field benefits everyone, and that government is not the provider of liberties, or even the the sole protector of those rights and the opportunities they offer.  That's the American zeitgeist and has been since it's founding in a rebellion against taxation without representation. Americans are finding that truth again, and it's about time.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Share This