October 28, 2022

Updated Generic Congressional Ballot Polling

This is pretty easy to upkeep since I've set it up, so why not update my RealClearPolitics interpretation more frequently between now and November 8th?  Here's the snapshot as of today:

As a reminder, I'm only including the latest poll from each pollster, happening the last ten days where only Likely Voters (LV) are included.  I have also excluded any polls for being revealing a sample size, and I am weighting the polls impact based on their size.  Other factors such as pollster bias or question wording have not been considered.  Nevertheless this still provides a more relevant result than how RCP average their average of polls.

You can see that the advantage has ballooned as I had predicted.  Even if I include as far back as October 11th, which I believe is probably a bit stale, the GOP still hold a +4.3% advantage.  Further if I remove supposedly Republican biased polls (Federalist, Rasmussen, and Trafalgar), I still get a Republican +3.6% advantage over the last 17 days of polls, or Republican +4.3% over the last 8 days.  I'm not trying to cherry pick, just show that the polls are showing voters moving to the right. 

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