My swing state view as of Oct 22

This morning I read the TIPP national tracking poll that showed over the weekend the race was tightening. It had this to say:

Trump's weekend momentum has fizzled out, and Harris and Trump are locked in a tight contest. Despite Trump's earlier momentum, the TIPP tracking poll shows former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tied at 48%.

My first thought was okay it's a tracking poll, there is a daily fluctuation that shouldn't be taken as gospel. So I decided to look further, and I discovered two things.  Firstly, despite the rounding, overall the details show Trump with a fractional lead at 48% and Harris somewhere around 47.7%. That is still a Trump lead, however small.  The second thing I discovered was that within their tracking poll, Trump did indeed drop from 49% to 48% on the rolling score while Harris gained from 47% to just under the 48% mark. That could be anything from a weekend Democrat response bias to real movement.  It's hard to tell.  

Keep in mind this is a national poll. If Trump is even in a national poll, he is in a strong position to win the national total vote count, which is of course, merely bragging rights. Perhaps it's a little more consequential this time around but that's a discussion for another time. What's interesting is that it matches a couple of my updated swing state results.  What really matters is the swing state polls.

Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics battleground state polling average (which are not the gold standard and why I try to average the polls a bit differently than RCP does) we see the following:

• Pennsylvania - Trump +0.8%
• North Carolina -  Trump +0.5%
• Georgia - Trump +2.5%
• Arizona - Trump +1.8%
• Wisconsin - Trump +0.4%
• Michigan - Trump +1.2%
• Nevada - Trump +0.7%

Here's what I am seeing as of this morning:

How does that compare to my previous snapshot? 

In my view, Trump has improved modestly in the sunbelt states of Arizona and Georgia (Nevada is statistically unchanged). In North Carolina and Pennsylvania there were no new polls so obviously, unchanged. In Wisconsin, Trump's lead has shrunk, perhaps mirroring the national TIPP findings.

As the polls begin to move in Trump's direction, the difference between my results and the RCP average has tightened. In Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina, our differences are negligible. In Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania I am seeing a much better Trump result than RCP and conversely, I am seeing a worse result for Trump in Nevada than RCP.

If my view is correct, Trump has a lead pretty much outside the margin of error cheating in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Those two states would bring his Electoral College total to 254 of the 270 needed to win. If Trump wins Michigan (his next highest lead) it would put him at 269. Arizona would put him over the top, being Trump's next highest lead over Michigan.  At just under 2% in the latter two states, Trump is likely to win, but they are not at a comfort level just yet.  With 13 days to go, I'm expecting one of two things; either a nailbiter finish with a Harris two-days-later, come from behind suspicious victory, or a Trump blowout win.

RCP is getting closer

As of this morning, RealClearPolitics is edging closer to my weighted percentage interpretation of their results.  They currently are averaging the results at R+3%.  I currently have it as R +4.4% with my filters and weighted averages factored in.

My latest take on RCP polling

Previously, my take on Real Clear Politics (my rationale explained briefly here) showed Republicans up by a whopping 5.5% on the average of their polls I felt were worth inclusion.  That's slipped a little bit but still showing a healthy GOP lead in the generic congressional ballot.

Here's my latest take on the available polls, 3 new ones have been added by RCP - NPR/PBS/Marist (R +3%), CBS News Battleground Tracker (R +2%) and CNN (R+4), with the largest sample being the CBS News poll and also having the smallest Republican advantage.  All three have brought the average Republican lead down.  

Keep this grain of salt in mind: all three newly added polls are from Democrat-favoring institutions.  This could be damage control.  I actually don't mind that as long as conservatives and like-minded independents do indeed get out and vote.  Why?  Because the alternative false narrative they could provide would be worse and the Left is missing that opportunity (unless the idea is already in play on a broader scale than we realize).

Here's what they would do if they were not so blindly and bitterly partisan;  start inflating the Republican advantage in these polls to ridiculous levels (R+12%, R +9%, R+11%) and then when it inevitably comes in short of that range, say at R+5%, the narrative could become that voters wanted change but at the last minute realized that they really didn't want a Republican majority and many voters pulled back and as 'reason took over' decided to revert to their true inclination to vote Democrat.  That narrative would keep the Democrats are the true majority notion alive, whereas sayin it's R +2% and then it turns out it ends up as R +5%, they will have to admit they took a deserved drubbing.

Or of course, they could just start to blame Biden. 

Updated Generic Congressional Ballot Polling

This is pretty easy to upkeep since I've set it up, so why not update my RealClearPolitics interpretation more frequently between now and November 8th?  Here's the snapshot as of today:

As a reminder, I'm only including the latest poll from each pollster, happening the last ten days where only Likely Voters (LV) are included.  I have also excluded any polls for being revealing a sample size, and I am weighting the polls impact based on their size.  Other factors such as pollster bias or question wording have not been considered.  Nevertheless this still provides a more relevant result than how RCP average their average of polls.

You can see that the advantage has ballooned as I had predicted.  Even if I include as far back as October 11th, which I believe is probably a bit stale, the GOP still hold a +4.3% advantage.  Further if I remove supposedly Republican biased polls (Federalist, Rasmussen, and Trafalgar), I still get a Republican +3.6% advantage over the last 17 days of polls, or Republican +4.3% over the last 8 days.  I'm not trying to cherry pick, just show that the polls are showing voters moving to the right. 

Me vs RCP on Generic Congressional Ballot

The RealClear Politics summary of polls on the generic congressional ballot doesn't work for me.  It weighs polls of all voters or registered voters or likely voters equally.  These are not apples to apples polls.  At this point Likely Voters are the best guage of poll results.  That assumes that pollsters' assignment of likely voters is sound (regardless of whether they are self-identified or determined through other methods).

Polls are not all the same size either.  Does it make sense to aggregate a poll of 500 people with a poll of 7,000 people by giving both polls equal weight? I don't believe it does and in the RCP Average, they do not show margin of error (which is higher with smaller sample sizes), which could be used as a filter for less robust polls.

More recent polls are more telling than older polls.  RCP does account for this by excluding polls over about 2 weeks old. RCP also removes redundant polls where for example a pollster polls twice in the two week period, the older poll gets excluded.

With that in mind I have scraped the RCP polling data and stripped out the duplicates, stripped out polls with no sample size provided (as those two are dubious since they cannot be questioned as to margin of error), stripped out polls that are not of likely voters, and then calculated a weighted average scoring of the total polled across all similar style polls and provided a margin based on that.

Here is what the latest week looks like:

That's only one poll though.  Here's the prior week. 

Better data, but also a bit older.  Here's the last two weeks combined:

I'm seeing a stronger Republican advantage than RCP. I usually do. But it jibes with the sense I'm getting about momentum.  As more recent polls get added I think the change from the prior week above to the current week will solidify more. I expect by early next week we may see enough data to see R+4% looking at just the latest week.

Addendum - just as I finished this about an hour before publication, I see RCP has added a new poll with R+4%.  It doesn't change my overall percentages in the final graph above but supports my theory that +4% seems closer than the +2.3% they are currently showing as their average.

Here's why THEY are wrong

Previously, I explained why I didn't believe my own filtering of the REalClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls and why I am inclined to think president Trump will win, despite the polling evidence.  It's a stretch for me, I know.  I'm an evidence guy.  I'm a data guy.  Yet I don't agree with the evidence I've collected. So in the spirit of self-checking and to dispel any sort of confirmation bias on my part, I thought I'd run an experiment of sorts.  Or rather just do some checking.  I took a look at the RCP polls for 2016 Trump vs. Clinton and compare it to 2020 Trump vs. Biden.  I specifically drilled down on Pennsylvania as a battleground state.  More specifically, I looked at the polls and compared August vs August.  Here's what I found.

The results are remarkably similar in both election years.  Consider - Trump did not lead in either state in either year, in any poll.  But in 2016 Trump defeated  Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania.  Famously so.  If you compare the 6 polls from 2016 to the 6 from 2018, Clinton was ahead of Trump by a combined +42.  Biden is ahead by +33. If you remove the meaningless Registered Voter (RV) polls, Clinton was ahead by +31, Biden only by +26.  In other words, Biden is under-performing Hillary Clinton at the same time period (August) in the election cycle.

Some might argue that pollsters have gotten smarter and are polling better than in 2016.  Show me proof after the election.  Right now there is no evidence to support that claim.  

In fact, when you look at individual pollsters who polled both 2016 and 2018, CBS News/YouGov has Clinton +8, Biden +6.  He's under-performed. Franklin and Marshall had both Clinton and Biden +7.  They've even got a lower margin of error in 2020, so Biden is doing better right?  No, because in 2020 they polled Registered Voters instead of Likely Voters like they did in 2016. Why is that?  Registered Voters always favor Democrats versus Likely Voter polls, and they are always less accurate.  The only pollster in 2020 that has good news for Biden is Emerson.  Emerson has Biden +9 and it only had Clinton +3.  Interestingly in this case, Emerson showed the lowest spread of Clinton over Trump and shows the largest spread of Biden over Trump.  Is it a perennial outlier or the one pollster we can say is an apples-to-apples comparison?  There's no evidence it's the latter without investigating the cross tabs (which I have not yet done).

Evidence, though only circumstantial, would indicate that the pollsters showing a Clinton lead and a Biden lead could be suffering from the same innate bias.  Trump beat Clinton despite the polls (in August anyway), and the same is quite potentially true in 2020.  And Biden is under-performing Clinton at the same point in the race.  The directional indication thus is Trump beat Clinton in Pennsylvania, despite trailing in August.  He trails Biden by less than he trailed Clinton in August.  Therefore it's possible he will defeat Biden by more than he defeated Clinton in Pennsylvania.  That's not an impossible trail of breadcrumbs to follow. 

Now time for the glass half empty view.  In the polls the gap between Trump and Clinton appear to be due to her own ceiling.  Remember, she was not a likable candidate.  Biden, while oafish, is more likable than Hillary was.  Trump's numbers have come up vs. 2016 but Biden has a higher polling average than Hillary did.  It seems he has a higher top end.  The Emerson poll is an interesting example.  Trump scored a 43% in both 2016 and 2020 but whereas Clinton got 46% in the pol, Biden got 52% support.

I eye that even with suspicion.  It is possible that a pollster could (NOT would) hold an option static and then smooth out the results based on that.  In other words, they could have held Trump at 43% and then took the remainder of voters and got fewer not sure/uncommitted and more Biden support.  I don't think they did that.  It's more plausible that Biden is more likable than Hillary was.  That does not translate to more votes in November though.

I'll leave it with one last thought.  The final RCP average in 2016 had Clinton +2.1%, Trump won by 0.7%.  The only two polls that had Trump competitive in the final days of early November were Trafalgar Group (Trump +1) and Harper (Tie).  Most of the pollsters (excluding the RV polls) had Clinton +2.  Morning Call had Clinton +6.  Monmouth had Clinton +4.  Not included in the RCP average but still final week polls, were CNN (Clinton +5), Quinnipiac (Clinton +6) and Franklin and Marshall (Clinton +11).  Remember: The only poll that matters is election day (plus all the monitored mail in voting but that's a story for another day).

Realistic polling results (part 2 of 2)

This is a continuation of my look at the state by state polling (which I had intended to complete yesterday).  If you have not seen part 1, take a look here for more context.

There are eight more states to look into that RealClearPolitics considers swing states. 

New Hampshire: There are a total of eight polls that RCP has listed for New Hampshire and only 3 that they use in calculating their average. St. Anselm has Biden +8 with  a +/-3% Margin of Error listed for their poll.  I was able to take a look at what are referred to as the crosstabs and it would appear they polled an almost equal number of Democrats and Republicans, but a very low number of Independents.  Yet according to CNN as recently as February, Independents represent the largest voting block in the state and represent 42% of the voters.  In the St Anselm poll they represent 1.2% of those polled.  That's clearly not a good sample.  That said, the poll shows swing voters as regarding president Trump unfavorably by a 2 to 1 ration.  But that is across only 85 people polled.  That is not a sample that will provide statistical significance.  Most importantly, the poll is among registered voters, not likely voters.  That is the only poll done within the last 45 days. In April they ran a poll showing Biden +7. Again it was registered voters.  In February the University of New Hampshire did a poll of Likely voters that had Trump +2.  It was a smaller poll and had a margin of error of +/2%, so the president's lead was not outside the margin of error.  The other poll they ran that they included was all the way back in January by NBC/Marist.   It also showed Biden +8.  My Take: Among registered voters Biden seems to have had a decent edge.  However you cannot say that is currently the case as only one poll is recent enough, and among likely voters no claim whatsoever can be made.  My best guess is that neither candidate holds a lead above the margin of error.

North Carolina: This state is a must win for president Trump but he clearly trails in the polls. But there is maybe one single poll I would say is worth keeping in an average.  The most recent poll by  CNBC/Change Research has Biden +1.  It is among likely voters and is very recent, but they did not indicate a margin of error. Clearly whatever it was the Biden lead is within the margin of error.  In their previous poll from late June the sample size was similar and it was +/-3.9% (it showed Biden +7 only 2 weeks prior to them showing him +1.  There's a disconnect there).  It's also worth noting the poll was a Democrat sponsored poll.  They also did a poll back in May that was similarly close.  So did Civitas/Harper which showed Trump +3 (+/-4%).  My Take: This state is close, but despite the plethora of polls showing Biden ahead, the polls that are worth taking note are few and far between and none of those have been recent enough to count.

Georgia: Only two polls since May, both registered voters not likely voters.  One (Fox) has Biden +2 and the other has Trump +3. So no real polling insight.  The state is a toss-up.  My Take: Trump wins this state that has trended towards Democrats but it's definitely not there yet. Realistically it's way too early to tell from a polling perspective.  As we get closer to November, there will be, as in all swing states, more reliable polling from which to glean information.

Ohio: THE bellwether state, right?  So why only 4 polls in the RCP list, since January 2020?  And why only registered voters? RCP has the state as a tie with 1 poll showing a Trump lead and 2 showing a smaller Biden lead.  My Take:  Trump crushed Hillary Clinton in 2016.  He's likely well ahead of Biden but I cannot make that claim at this point, it's just a strong hunch.  Officially I'd say this state cannot be put in either column at this point based on polls.

Pennsylvania: RCP has it at Biden +8.  There is a lot of polling being done in the state and quite a few that have polled likely voters.  But there are only two that I think have shown dependable results in the recent 45 day window (based on criteria I have previously mentioned).  The Trafalgar Group poll and the Susquehanna poll.  Both have Biden at +5.  Trafalgar's was mid-June and  Susquehanna's was last week.  The other polls, some showing a Biden lead as high as 13%, can be discarded as not reliable.  My Take:  As of last week it is very possible the 2 polls were correct.  I have not seen the crosstabs to see the R/D/Independent weightings but they may be reasonable.  As of last week I would have put PA in the Biden column.  But I'm going to leave it open.  Here's why; his recent announcement of a $2 trillion clean energy plan leading to 100% clean energy means devastating job losses in the state.  He's proposing the same agenda that Obama and Clinton both followed.  He just cost himself a lot of votes in his 'childhood' state.  Polls in the coming weeks will start to reflect that speech.  This race will be a tight one by next month, barring some other dramatic change.  Luckily, it is likely going to be a state where we will be able to reasonably track polling sooner rather than later.

Texas: Look, if RCP is going to track Texas as a swing state, then why not Democratic states like Colorado.  That this is even in the mix is ridiculous.  It's so ridiculous in fact, that I did not even build into my calculator and option for Texas. If Republicans lose Texas, it's game over, forever.  So with respect to this state, I'm kinda riffing on my analysis.  

Nevertheless, the RCP average has Trump +0.2%.  There are only two polls I can see with any recency that are likely voters with a reasonable margins of error.  There's OAN/Gravis that has Trump +2 and the Dallas Morning News that is a much larger sample size that has Biden +5. Yes, that's concerning.  A brief review of the methodology of that poll appears to keep it as a viable poll.  The poll could be an outlier, but I'm going to have to factor it in to my thinking.  My Take: From a strictly dependable-poll-driven analysis I'd say right now the state is leaning towards Biden.  But as with Pennsylvania, Biden's recent energy speech probably just wiped out his chances of competing in Texas. I'm leaving this one in Trump's column because if this state goes Democrat, it's over. I'm going to have to fold up my blog and re-open it as BBQ recipe blog if that happens.

Virginia: RCP average of polls has this state at Biden +11.  The 2 latest polls  in the average were taken in Mar/Apr and in May.  The timing is useless.  While Biden is likely to win this state and outperform Hillary Clinton (barring a Virginia-specific gaffe, which is entirely possible), he is just not going to win the state by 11 points.  My Take:  There are exactly zero polls I would include in assessing the state.  Based on demographics trends, it's likely to remain a Democrat state, sadly.  Given any lack of real polling, I cannot claim otherwise.

Wisconsin: The RCP average is Biden +6.  I see only one poll worth factoring in - the Trafalgar Group poll from late June which has Trump +1.  The CNBC/Change Research polls for this state and others, which have Biden exclusively ahead (here and in other states) might  be accurate, but they do not publish margin of error data, which is a very odd curiousity, and therefore I cannot include in my calculus.  My Take: With one poll that I can factor, showing Trump ahead, I still have to put this state in the No Call column because 1 valid poll is not enough to hang your hat on (pardon the pun). 

All in all, these state by state polls do look all that different from the Hillary Clinton paradigm-shifting landslide of 2016.  Remember that?  Me neither. Here's my primarily poll-based map (granting Georgia, Texas and Arizona to Trump despite enough poll-based evidence to support it):

Click to enlarge.

In this scenario, if Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin he gets to 270. Barely. Is that feasible?  Absolutely. Is it likely?  Given polling I'd say it's only 50/50 right now.  While the polls are mostly all skewed and problematic, the president does have work to do.  I think COVID-19 has sapped his energy and enthusiasm.  But once he gets back to campaigning, something he seems to enjoy, I expect to see some poll shifts.  The debates will cause shifting too.  And the tendency of pollsters to become more rigorous in the closing days will see shifts too.  Honestly I still see president Trump with a potential electoral college ceiling as high as 335.  

My point is a Biden blow out is not going to happen, not that I or anyone else can fairly predict right now.  For now conservatives, do not get discouraged, just sit tight and wait.  Or better yet donate your money and time to making 2020 a Trump and Republican year.

Realistic polling results

Realistic polling results? Not so far.  I've been tracking the RealClearPolitics amalgamation of polls for some time now (here, here, here).   I have many problems with the simplistic presentation of an average of the polls to determine state by state winners from an electoral college perspective.

Click to enlarge RCP's take.

As of today, RealClearPolitics has the following polling average results:

Arizona - Biden +2.8%

Florida - Biden +6.4%

Iowa - Trump +1.5%

Michigan - Biden +7.7%

Minnesota -  Biden +16%

Nevada - Biden +4.0%

New Hampshire - Biden +4.3%

North Carolina - Biden +2.0%

Georgia - Trump +3.0%

Ohio - Tie

Pennsylvania - Biden +7.8%

Texas - Trump +0.2%

Virginia - Biden +11%

Wisconsin - Biden +6.0%

Does anyone honestly think that president Trump is ahead by just 0.2% in Texas?  Or that Biden is ahead in Arizona? The polls, and therefore the RealClearPolitics average of polls are incorrect.  The average that many pundits rely on is the wonkiest number ever.  For example the RCP average is lumping in registered voter polls with likely voter polls. That's mixing apples and oranges so to speak.

If the RealClearPolitics average is correct, right now Joe Biden is indeed looking at a landslide win over president Trump. He would have a 333-149 electoral college lead with Ohio and Texas as swing states going neither way but both potentially landing in Biden's column giving him as much as a 389-149 lead or as low as 333-205 electoral college win. That's an absurdity.

On a state by state basis here is what I am seeing:

Arizona: RCP has Trump ahead in only 3 of 23 polls since February 2019, or 2 if 17 polls in 2020.  In the past 45 days, 5 polls were conducted using the (typically) more dependable Likely Voters. Three of them were conducted by the same pollster (CNBC/Change Research) which is a Democrat funded poll. Their polls are typically using too small of a sample size and they do not publish their margin of error.  Take them out and there is a poll showing Trump +4 and a poll showing Biden +5.  My take: Based on the availability of quality polls, the state is undecided in my view. Realistically if Trump loses Arizona, he's lost the election but I personally don't see him losing the state.

Florida: RCP says Biden +6.8%?  No way.  Of the 6 polls since late May in the supposedly swing state, 4 of them are conducted by the same pollster as mentioned for Arizona.  Not surprisingly they have the same issue with their polls as in Arizona. The TIPP poll that had Biden +11% also has a margin of error problem in that they won't publish it, which means their party affiliation ratio in their poll may be skewed also.  I could not check it.  That leaves one poll that is across the board worth keeping - the Trafalgar Group (which is a Republican funded poll).   It has the state as a tie.  My take: The reality is that as usual, at this point, the state is still a toss up.

Iowa: The RCP average has Trump +1.5%. That's probably right but there are 0 polls within the last 45 days that are usable in the state.  The Des Moines Register poll which has Trump +1.  The problem is that it is the only recent poll and to rely on just one poll is not advisable.  My take: Iowa still has to be classified as a toss up just due to lack of data.

Michigan: In the last 45 days CNBC/Change Research polling has been busy stacking the average for Joe Biden (3 of 4 of the most recent state polls definitely skews the average).  There are 4 polls that I would consider; the lastest polls by each of CNBC/Change Research and EPIC-MRA, and one from NY Times/Sienna. The CNBC/Change Research has to drop because they do not publish a margin of error for their polls. The NY Times/Sienna poll is registered voters and has to drop.  That leaves Republican sponsored Trafalgar poll of 1101 likely voters that has Biden at +1% and the EPIC-MRA poll of 600 likely voters that has Biden (no joke) +16%. The latter poll has a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4%, vs. +/- 3% for Trafalgar.  If EPIC-MRA has Biden at it's most pro-Trump MOE it is still Biden +12%.  And if Trafalgar has it's poll at it's most pro-Biden it is Biden +4%.  Now is it Biden +12% or Biden +4%? My take: It's neither.  The state cannot be called at this point for Biden.  But here's the problem for president Trump, his support in the states does appear to have softened and requires some attention from his campaign.

Minnesota: Every RCP poll in the state is a registered voter poll.  My take: The polls for Minnesota are useless, and there is no data for the state. Because Trump did well against Clinton, I'm going to leave this as a toss-up until data appears.

Nevada:  The latest poll is from January.  My take: The polls for Nevada are useless, and there is no data for the state.  It's probably still a Biden state but there is no data to support the claim.

With just 6 states reviewed so far and I have all of them as toss ups whereas the RCP average has 5 of 6 of them strongly for Biden leaving only Iowa leaning for Trump.  From that Biden 333 electoral college votes I mentioned earlier (if Trump wins Texas and Ohio of the RCP toss-ups) I so far have removed 72 electoral college votes from Biden's column leaving him with 261 and Trump with just 199.  And there's a lot of other states to dissect, likely making both of those electoral college numbers decline for both candidates.

The big takeaway so far should be this - the RCP polls are not relevant yet.  Whether that is deliberate,  an inability to improving polling methods, or some other reason does not yet matter.  So far, nobody is winning.  I'm content to let Democrats and the media think otherwise but not teh American people.  They need to know this race is FAR from over.

Coming tomorrow - New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin and mt latest overall electoral college numbers.

Is Romney Over?

Bachmann had a surge too early. That's also true for Cain and Perry and for a while it looked like Gingrich was peaking just a smidge too early as well.  Santorum surged at the right time for Iowa.  Each of those candidates for the GOP primary ultimately fell back to earth.  With all of that it looked like Mitt Romney was taking on an air of inevitability.  That's especially true after he won New Hampshire.