If there was ever a sign Nikki Haley, this was it

Losing to none of the above (technically None of these Candidates") has got to sting:

Now might be the time to drop out of the race.

GOP 2024 delegate futures

 

President Trump is going to go into Nevada next and take all 26 delegates. You read that right.  Thanks to weird rules in Nevada where they are holding a primary and a caucus, Trump is not on the primary ballot, and Haley is not on the caucus ballot. The GOP is counting the caucus results for the delegates. That will put Trump at 58, and Haley at 17.

I'm willing to bet she uses that to paint the GOP as being stacked against her, that she's the outsider. That's rich.  Only the donor class and Democrats want to see her win the nomination.

After Nevada comes South Carolina. Nikki Haley's home state. She's going to get trounced there. There are 50 delegates up for grabs and with a 30 point lead as of this writing, I'd expect Trump to take at least 35 of the 50 delegates, probably more. Assuming he wins 35/50, that would put the delegate total at Trump 93, Haley at 32.

Sure, at that point it's still early and she can make the argument that she's still got a fighting chance. But the symbolic nature of losing your home state cannot be overlooked.  

Hot on the heels of South Carolina is Michigan's primary, where Trump leads Haley by 34% in the latest poll (I could find, as of this writing). Of the 55 delegates, 39 will be allocated by caucus (about  a week after the primary) and the remainder based on the results of the primary. Given the polling lead, I'd expect Trump to get another 40 delegates from Michigan.  The one caveat I'd throw at that is that Michigan has an open primary. There could be a lot of Democrat cross-contamination. And while Haley would definitely benefit from that in terms of pure numbers, it severely damages her brand.

At that point his lead would be widened to 133 delegates versus 47 for Haley. The absolute margin is not huge, given that 1215 delegates are needed to win the nomination. But having lost her own state by this point and clearly with only about of a quarter of the delegates won (between her and Trump), justifying staying in the race until Super Tuesday, is a really tough sell. She's damaging her brand, not Trump's. Unless that's her secret goal, and we know it's not, then she has to be just selling out to the donor class for some sort of payoff down the road.

In the other scenario, where there's a lot of crossover Democrats voting for Haley, Trump still is likely to get at least 30 of the caucus delegates and half of the primary delegates. That would put him at 38 delegates in Michigan rather than my already conservative estimate of 40.  The outcome is relatively unchanged.

There's no point in looking into Idaho, Missouri, D.C. and North Dakota primaries which all happen before the 16 Super Tuesday states (not at this point; a lot can happen between now and then). The results of those states are likely to mirror their predecessors.

Nikki Haley has no path to victory. After 5 races, she'll have 5 second place finishes, some of them she'll be a distant second.  After 9 races she'll have 8 or 9 second place finishes. Washington D.C. may prefer her to Trump, so what? If this were a boxing match, the doctor would have stopped the fight long before the 9th round. 

Digesting Iowa Republican caucus results

The big surprise of the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses was not the margin of Trump's victory or that he won massively, it was that Ron DeSantis came in second.  Pollsters were pointing to a Nikki Haley second place finish. She came third, despite the polls indicating she would run second, and despite the establishment push for her. Vivek Ramaswamy ran fourth as expected, but he did so in a classy way, and bowed out afterward the results were clear, quickly throwing his endorsement behind president Trump.

Most of Vivek's support will likely flow to Trump, though truthfully he really needs no help. It should allow him to run up the score, and it's smart that it comes pre New Hampshire. Trump is leading Nikki Haley there by roughly 14 points according RCP. Vivek's 5 points in that state could allow Trump some additional buffer.

President Trump was uncharacteristically magnanimous in victory, complimenting his primary rivals.  It's of course much easier to be gracious when you have an almost certain lock on the nomination. But that probably helps his candidacy.  His post caucus speech sounded very much like someone wanting the country to come together. It certainly will help him when he wraps up the nomination, to bring the Republican party together. And it will definitely help him in the general election, since the Democrats and media are prepared only for the belligerent version of Trump. It will make Let's Go Brandon look all the more bitter by comparison. At least it will help until the left catches on.  Luckily they don't tend to catch on quickly. It's a smart strategy for Trump.

Ron DeSantis, by coming second, will remain in the race. Even if he knows he cannot win (which may or may not be the actual case), he cannot drop out after a surprise second place finish when he was expected to come third.  It looks bad for his 2028 run if he folds so quickly. DeSantis staying in the race hurts Haley more than Trump. The anti-Trump vote split into two candidates helps Trump possibly even more than a Trump blowout in Iowa. If Trump gets a double digit lead in New Hampshire, going into South Carolina he is expected to blow out everyone again, it could be over that early. That's optimistic but the longer DeSantis stays in the race, the worse the chance become for Nikki Haley, the establishment uni-party darling. 

Mitt Romney considering kneecapping president Trump

Mitt Romney is mulling over a primary challenge to president Trump.

Romney has re-emerged, as he does occasionally, to be the self-appointed voice of morality. He slammed President Trump’s behavior during the phone call to Ukraine’s President Zelensky as “wrong and appalling”.

...While Romney is clutching his pearls over Trump’s phone call, I haven’t seen a tweet criticizing Rep. Adam Schiff for lying about contact with the whistleblower who filed the complaint that opened up the investigation into the phone call. Even the Washington Post gave that four Pinocchios. That’s the problem with Romney – he’s too busy criticizing a Republican president to criticize Democrats.

That's just a #NeverTrump attempt to kneecap the president. Mitt Romney cannot win a general election and he has exactly zero percent probability of beating president Trump in a primary. So what's his end game? Either Mitt Romney is so insulated from reality in his #NeverTrump circle with the likes of Bill Kristol that he thinks he can win, or else he's hoping he does enough damage to allow a Democrat to beat president Trump in the general election. Either way, it's not going to get him anywhere.

Walker Wasn't It

Sunday morning I was watching the talking heads predicting that Scott Walker would be dropping out of the presidential race very soon. It turns out they were right.

Short of support and cash, Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, saying he had been “called to lead by helping to clear the field,” announced Monday that he was suspending his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

In a brief news conference in Madison, Mr. Walker referred sharply to Donald J. Trump’s influence on the primary contest, saying he hoped his exit would make it possible for “a positive conservative message” to take hold in the crowded race.

“I encourage other Republican presidential candidates to consider doing the same, so that the voters can focus on a limited number of candidates who can offer a positive conservative alternative to the current front-runner,” Mr. Walker said in the short appearance, at which he took no questions. “This is fundamentally important to the future of the party and, more importantly, to the future of our country.”

Scott Walker was a good candidate before the race got started. He had fight. He had principles. He had grit, and common sense. What happened? He didn't stand out and he turned out to be just too bland to transition (or translate) from a champion at a Wisconsin level to the same at a national level.

And that's all it takes. Bobby Jindal take heed, you might be next. Being a bright conservative, being a principled conservative isn't enough. Being successful isn't enough. You need pizzazz. You need the sizzle with the steak. And maybe, you need to be an outsider. I mean a real outsider. Being a governor isn't necessarily enough outside the beltway. You might need to be a not-politician. In turn we've seen surges from Trump, Carson and Fiorina. All are not professional politicians.

What's notable in Walker's talking points above, is he sounds more like a politician, and an establishment one to boot, than a Harley riding guy he portrays himself as being. The jab at Trump may be a hurt pride thing, but it comes across as plying ball. Note to Republican establishment,in 2008 the only thing that excited conservatives was a Palin VP slot. In 2012 they didn't even have that.

Learn or perish. the ultimate lesson may extend outside of the current election cycle - you need to be a person of the people, not a politician. Reagan even, was clearly a politician, but he was able to transcend that by connecting with voters on a visceral, gut level. He did it simply by having the right message for the time. That made him a man of the people. As I said, learn, or perish.

No, Gingrich isn't dropping out

Newt Gingrich has a press conference lined up for later tonight after the Nevada caucuses have probably wrapped up.  Speculation is circling that maybe he's dropping out.  I don't think so.

Instead of the traditional election night party, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will hold a press conference after the Nevada Caucus on Saturday, raising new speculation about his future in the race.

An e-mail sent to reporters on Saturday morning set the Las Vegas press conference for 11 p.m. to midnight Eastern time. It will be held at the Venetian, a hotel run by Sheldon Adelson, who has donated millions of dollars to the pro-Gingrich super PAC Winning Our Future.

Is Romney Over?

Bachmann had a surge too early. That's also true for Cain and Perry and for a while it looked like Gingrich was peaking just a smidge too early as well.  Santorum surged at the right time for Iowa.  Each of those candidates for the GOP primary ultimately fell back to earth.  With all of that it looked like Mitt Romney was taking on an air of inevitability.  That's especially true after he won New Hampshire.

Do we need fewer GOP candidates?

We aren't getting anyone else so let's concentrate on the ones we've got now. Huntsman is out, following Bachmann and Cain. And Trump for that matter. That leaves us with Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry and Paul as the possibilities. Would fewer candidates allow for someone to seriously challenge Mitt Romney? There's a strong case to be made that if everyone dropped out but one not Romney candidate, the eventual nominee would be not Romney. The problem is, Perry, Gingrich and Santorum are not going to blink. They all want to be that last man standing and benefit from the convergence of the not Romney vote. But the longer they hold out the further ahead Romney will get as the not Romney vote is split.

Conundrum.

Part 2b - GOP primaries – The Wildcards (cont.)

NOTE: this post is a continuation of Part 2a - GOP primaries – The Wildcards.

In addition to the wild card factor posed  by Sarah Palin and Donald Trump, there is some wild card factor with two people still in the race - Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.  How will they affect the race?

Part 2a - GOP primaries – The Wildcards

Matrix-like: There is no spoon.

NOTE: This is a continuation from Part 1.

There are three big wild cards in the GOP presidential nomination race, and one minor wild card. The three big wild cards include two personalities not in the race – Donald Trump, and Sarah Palin. The in-the-race wild card is Ron Paul and the minor wild card, also in the race, is Rick Santorum. 

Each of those four individuals has some concrete or at least a potential part to play in this election cycle. Each one has the potential to make a significant difference or to be a non-factor depending on what they decide to do. A look at what they bring to the process is in order.

Romney has it sewn up (or not)

Establishment Romney sheep?  Click to see.

Kristin Powers writing in The Daily Beast argues that the domino effect caused by Florida moving its primary up to January helps Mitt Romney's chances of winning the GOP primary. She sees it as being all about money.  Florida is big, expensive and early and Romney has cash.  Advantage Romney.  I don't see it that way.  Too bad I didn't write about the various impacts of the moves before she did.  Oh wait, I did.  

By the way, Romney sheep are very real.  Luckily they aren't voting in the primaries.

Despite my difference with Powers on the effects of the Florida move, her argument makes some sense.  Although I don't think it's that cut and dried,  there is some merit to the cost argument.  But that's only one facet of the race.

GOP moving parts almost stop moving. Let's predict.

Oh really now?

With Sarah Palin and Chris Christie bowing out of the race, the nominees are pretty much locked.  With states moving up their caucuses and primaries, the dates are locking in and coming soon.  The moving parts are stopping their moving and locking in for the GOP nomination process.  With things locking down predictions about what is likely to happen are somewhat easier, though by no means have they become a simple task.  The ubiquitous "a lot can happen between now and..." still applies.

Just ask the guy on the left.

Things change, and we can't wait for the next one.  The question is, who will it be to replace America's significant O?

Um, where's Palin?

Going somewhere?

No announcement was made by Palin on her decision to run/not run.  It was supposed to have happen in September.  That was her own deadline. Check your calendars, no announcement.  So what happened?  Is Sarah running or not.  Having firmly been in the camp of IS for the last several months, I'm about ready to flip to NOT.  Don't get me wrong, I think Palin would make a good candidate, I just think she's not going to run, and I think that's the case because events changed to make things seem less favorable for her.

Improbable Political Thriller

If I were writing a political drama something I'd consider writing about a political primary to keep it interesting would be to have a continuing series of headline grabbers one after the other that were worth a chapter and then fizzled out one by one.

Chapter 1: Mike Huckabee declines to run.

Chapter 2: Romney becomes the de facto poll leader of the GOP field. 

Chapter 3: Donald Trump decides he's a Republican, surges in the polls and runs doesn't run. 

Chapter 4: Michele Bachmann wins the Iowa straw poll.

Chapter 5: Rick Perry enters and Bachmann fades away.

Chapter 6: Perry falters in a few debates and looks like he's fading.

Chapter 7: Herman Cain surges.

Chapter 8: Chris Christie thinks about jumping in after flatly stating he's not running.

Chapter 9: Chris Christie surges and fades like Perry.

Chapter 10: Sarah Palin makes her decision to run. 

Chapter 11: Here's where I get stuck - I can't think of a logical ending.

Now that seems like a pretty improbable political thriller.  Implausible even.  Except that's what seems to have happened up to about Chapter 8.  It's been an improbably season but even the prologue is absurd.  Obama started with massive approval and blew it horrifically, even with a fawning press.

Politics is stranger than fiction.

GOP debate winners and losers

A lot has been written since last night about the GOP debate winners and losers.  Adding a detailed analysis here won't add much value, so here's a quick assessment.

Weinergate - Why I'm so done with it.

Anthony Weiner is a loud-mouth opinionated liberal. He interrupts and shouts down those with whom he disagrees. He's bull-headed. Let's not forget cocky...

3 Questions Donald Trump Needs To Answer Right Now.

Megalomania.

Simply put, while Donald Trump has surged in GOP primary polls it is likely he's already reached his zenith. His recent comments have irked a lot of conservatives. Trump brought a lot of energy and profile into the race prior to comments on Obama's birth certificate and spoiled child threats to run as an independent if he doesn't get the GOP nomination. In that light here are three questions Donald Trump needs to answer immediately and effectively if he doesn't want a boycott Trump campaign started in the coming weeks.