Bizarro World GOP style

I missed the debate last night, so I'm still looking to see if anything went down out of sorts. Nonetheless, this morning South Carolina Governor, Nikki Hayley herself a recipient of Tea Party support has chosen to endorse - Mitt Romney?

What...how...huh?

Cain Train Derailment

Every conservative political blogger has already blogged about this announcement today.  Not me, not because I don't care - I had internet connection issues today.  In any case, if you missed it, here's the scoop;

Herman Cain, the insurgent populist whose candidacy has been ensnared by allegations of sexual impropriety, said Saturday that he is leaving the race for the Republican presidential nomination, saying that the allegations have cast a "cloud of doubt over me and this campaign."

"As of today, with a lot of prayer and soul searching, I am suspending my presidential campaign," he said at an event in Atlanta. "I am suspending my presidential campaign because of the continued distraction, the continued hurt . . . on me, on my family, not because we are not fighters, not because I am not a fighter."

Given that he announced his announcement, it's not a surprise that the 9-9-9 to Washington D.C. had derailed today. But he probably could have continued if the polls hadn't turned towards Gingrich already.  Cain deserves credit for his 9-9-9 idea and getting the conversation moving in a conservative direction.  He may have been more ready to run the country's finances than to run a campaign though.  Now, it will be interesting to see whom he might endorse.

What to look for in CNN's GOP debate tonight

CNN is hosting another in a series of seemingly endless GOP primary debates tonight.  The topic: foreign policy and national security.  This will be the second foreign policy debate, and it provides candidates one more opportunity to make an impression on voters for better or worse.  There's two things I'd expect to see in the debate tonight.

Pragmatism versus one-horse-zealotry

Heated.  Things in the GOP primary are getting heated. R S McCain is on an anybody-but-Newt tear in contrast with Ed Morrissey who thinks Gingrich would be a good battler for conservatives and a formidable foe for Obama in 2012.  Elsewhere in the blogosphere and tweet-osphere, I've seen rabid backers of Cain, Paul and Perry tear apart those who prefer another candidate.  Even Romney backers have been dismissive of supporters of other candidates.  This is a primary season, and heated is to be expected.  Everyone seems to have a horse in this race and that means they are engaged.  That's good. Uncivil behavior on the other hand is another story.  While for the most part, criticisms have ranged from viable to less than robust, the  civility has been been present.  It has not been universally so.

Throw out all the GOP polls right NOW.

Forget the latest polls showing Gingrich, Cain and Romney all in the top tie and neck-and-neckr.  People weren't prepared to let Perry get away with a debate gaffe forgetting something fundamental.  Cain just committed an equally bad political sin - looking lost in answering a question.

So forget the polls out today - a week from now, barring more surprises,  it will be only Gingrich and Romney in the top tier.  After this, the media will see to it that everyone knows Cain is not ready for prime time.

Painful.

Foreign policy is a key component of the presidency.  Cain may have some great ideas but it has become apparent that he's not ready for every aspect of the presidency.

Newtmentum!! (and what it means for Newt)

Newt Gingrich's surge to be the not-Romney candidate has taken root according to the latest PPP poll.

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's national polling. He's at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney. The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.

Compared to a month ago Gingrich is up 13 points, while Cain has dropped by 5 points and Romney has gone down by 4.

What is most interesting about this poll to me is the not-Romney aspect of the race.  I knew Newt was on the rise and that part of the result isn't surprising to me.  The question on most pundits' minds will be whether Newt has the staying power that Trump, Bachmann, Perry and now perhaps Cain as well, have lacked.  The standard viewpoint is that conservative GOP voters are test driving everyone who isn't Romney to be the not-Romney candidate and it's now Newt's turn.

Tooting my own horn, and Gingrich's a little too.

Not a crystal ball.

Early on in the debates when everyone was declaring Perry or Romney the winner, I called it for Cain.  He started rising in the polls shortly afterwards.  Later on when people were calling the debate for Cain or Romney, I called it for Gingrich.  Gingrich has been rising in the polls ever since.  The latest debate people are declaring for Gingrich, but I think both he and Romney were co-winners.  We'll soon see if I was correct again.  

[I'd post the links to my observations but it's late and I'm tired, so just trust me - or look up my previous posts].

I'd like to say I'm good at predicting winners but it's not the case.  What I think I've been doing well is watching the debates dispassionately and determining the winners based on merit.  That's not to say I'm not passionate about the debates, I am.  But you have to be dispassionate to get the winners and losers right.  The latest Marist poll looks like Gingrich has moved to the top tier with a flat Romney and a possible fading Cain (although that has more to do with accusations against him than debate performance).

The politics of Cain crushing

Stepping aside from whether Cain is going to be the GOP candidate or not, and stepping aside from the guilt or innocence of Cain with respect to the harassment allegations being brought against him, let's look at the claim Cain makes about what's behind his accusers.  Cain claims it's the Democrats. True or not, there is a pathway to that claim making sense.

Herman Cain rejects the claims

Herman Cain is holding a press conference right now, robustly defending himself against all the accusations of harassment against him.  He's not backing down and he plans a vigorous defense and a continued campaign for president.  The most enjoyable part of the conference has been his lawyer chastising Gloria Allred for trotting out an accuser and then booking interviews for the accuser instead of focusing the legal issues into a court of law.  Delicious.

Will this conference help or hurt Cain?  I think it might help him in the primaries but if he wins the nomination, no matter how innocent he is (or isn't) the seed has been planted and you can bank on the fact that Team Obama* will pounce all over it.

*This includes CBS, MSNBC, et al.

UPDATE: CBS asks the lie detector question.  Cain is willing to do one.  Cain also says that the character microscope candidates go under is fine, if they are done with facts.

Reuters asks about supporter loss. Cain is confident the support won't be affected significantly over time.

LA Times poses a question with the premise that it's serious and then asks if he has ever seen it.  Cain has seen it. Cain also does not tolerate it.

ABC brings up the complaint that is from Cain indicates is baseless.  That is probably the one the will get the most, and most immediate drill-down from the press.

Wall Street Journal puts the count at 4 complaints and asks Cain why.  Cain believes it's coming from political opponents.  He believes the machine will push the effort to attack his integrity relentlessly to stop him.  He doesn't know who is behind it.

NBC asks about Cain's impressions about Sharon Bialek's financial troubles. Were they contributory to her claims against him?  Cain suggests they raise the obvious question.

CNN - who found the other case to be found baseless and why was payment made?  Cain reiterated the Restaurant Association timeline.

CBS - Is the Sharon Bialek case something he is just forgetting like some of the details with the first accusation?  Cain says it's possible but it is a very remote possibility - he typically remembers people.

Cain is answering all the questions himself.  Impressive.

Gain on Cain

Three way battle?

After the latest debate I said Newt Gingrich won, after calling the previous debate for Cain.  In the latest Rasmussen report it looks like Romney and Gingrich have made a gain on Cain.  Or perhaps more accurately, Gingrich is moving up, and Cain may have peaked and is now returning to the pack.

Has it turned into a three way battle?  Or is this the latest in a series of streaks to the top followed by a fall back to nowhere?  Is Gingrich the latest flavor of the week?

Republicans' Least Objectionable Option

That title can apply to a lot of things but what I have in mind is the GOP candidates for president.  With a very short window until the caucuses and primaries start, it's about time conservatives start getting serious about who to suggest as the eventual nominee in the race to face Obama.  Let's face it, there is no Ronald Reagan in the race this year.  But that's not to say each candidate doesn't have something that they bring to the table.  But since there is no Reagan, a lot of conservatives are thinking they have to hold their nose and select their best available choice.

Who might that be?  The candidate has to be the most conservative, but electable according to William F. Buckley.  I'd expand on that latter category by saying that the candidate has to be charismatic, a great communicator and debate-ready.  The candidate has to go head-to-head with Obama in debates and come out on top.  That's really important.  Obama has to go - at all costs.

Rick Perry may be over. Or not. But probably.

There's buzz on the Internet over the Rick Perry "was he drunk video".  There's an 8 minute version circulating that edited together makes him see really off.   This is the full length version, and I'd encourage you to view it before making up your own mind.  Nevertheless, the damage may be done.  As Jon Stewart said "Best case he drunk, worst case - he's sober."

Is he possibly falling on his sword to rescue the conservatives' last best hope - Herman Cain? Nah. But he' sure helped create a diversion from Cain's 12 year old non-harassment harassment issue.

As for Perry, if he and Cain were to switch spots in the polling and Perry was still the front runner, this would hurt him perhaps in the general election and not the primary.  But after Perry's precipitous decline this may just be the final nail in his candidacy.  It might not be, but the timing for his campaign is absolutely terrible.

Democrats Replay Old Script on Cain

Remember me?

It looks like the Democrats are getting a little worried about Herman Cain.  He's black, he's conservative, and he's winning.  That shoots a hole into their liberal narrative - a big hole.  So they have to do what they can to derail him as quickly as possible.  This is bigger than derailing Mitt Romney whom they view to be the likely nominee because the narrative on African Americans is that their only hope for a better future is to always vote Democrat.  The problem is we can spot an old playbook play when we see one and the proper defense is to counter this story with the truth as hard and as often as possible.

Inadvertent Spin for Cain

Having accused many of spin in the past, I believe I may have done it myself for Herman Cain, albeit inadvertently.

Steve Forbes recently had some positive things to say about Herman Cain's 9-9-9 plan. But at the same time he mentioned he prefers Rick Perry's idea for a flat tax (no mention of Gingrich's version of a plan published over a month ago).

Steve Forbes may be in the tank for Perry but I am not in the tank for Cain. I like his idea. Perry's may be good too, I haven't seen it yet. But to be clear, while Forbes may like Cain's plan, he has not endorsement and his preference seems to lie elsewhere.

Incidentally, I've moved closer to a preferred candidate among the many but I am not locked in. I have simply ruled out a few people. Meanwhile, I want to be fair to all of the candidates, hence the clarification for those who read my posts.

Add Steve Forbes to the 9-9-9 supporters. Maybe.

Herman Cain may not have fully disclosed a list of economists in favor of his 9-9-9 plan, but he is getting some high profile praise from Steve Forbes.  While it comes with a Perry caveat, it still provides Cain ammunition that his plan is not some half-baked cockamamie scheme;

The nightmare on Main Street -- the federal income tax code -- is ending, which is fantastic news for our beleaguered economy. Dramatically simplifying this monstrosity would unleash a powerful wave of prosperity and job creation.

Thankfully in 2012 we will get a mandate to make this happen. Presidential contender Herman Cain vaulted to the head of the Republican pack when he proposed his 9-9-9 plan -- a flat 9% income tax, corporate tax and national sales tax. Even better, Texas Gov. Rick Perry will, in a few days, unveil his version of a flat tax, a concept that I have long advocated...

The flat tax would stimulate risk taking and productivity. Combined with a stable dollar, it would usher in a great economic boom. The Cain plan would rid us of not only the federal income tax, but also the Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes. Both plans would end crony capitalism and reduce political corruption: Half of the lobbying in Washington revolves around the tax code as special interests vie for special tax breaks.

The challenge of the Cain plan is that national sales tax, a tough sell given that the average sales tax in the US on a state and local level is already at 9%. Moreover, there is a real danger in introducing a new nationwide tax. Politicians will always be finding a reason to raise it, which is what’s happened to Europe with its consumption tax, called the Value Added Tax. The flat income tax is the easier, better way to go.

Herman Cain and debate prowess

Herman Cain  is a likable guy.  He has momentum on his side right now.  He's charismatic and he's thinking outside the box.  In fact he's running outside the box.

With a buildup like that, you know there's a BUT coming...

GOP Nevada Debate Winner: Gingrich?

Surprise.

There were some interesting developments in the debate tonight. There were losers and winners and some twists and turns in the running battle between Romney and Perry, something CNN clearly still believes constitute the two front runners in this race.

Developing: Cain ahead of Obama

In Rasmussen's latest poll release, 2012 Presidential Matchups, Cain's bounce has him ahead of Obama in a shift of +5% for Cain in a matter of a week. That's a significant shift if the numbers hold up.

Breaking: Gingrich leaps Perry

Third?

After the debate I posited that Cain had won the debate, Romney did well enough but did not win simply by virtue of not losing.  I suggested that Perry lost and that Gingrich continued to perform well.  The latest two polls out seem to confirm my points, although they are up to the day before the poll, the trends seem to be directional.  In other words, the debate will probably solidify the direction of these candidates.

Granted, I didn't think Gingrich would benefit much from his performance but it's starting to look like his efforts may be paying off.

Who won the latest GOP debate? Cain.

You just messed with the wrong guy, punk!

The conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney did well and won by virtue of not doing poorly.  The conventional wisdom is that Herman Cain gets honorable mention and certainly helped his own case.  The conventional wisdom is that Rick Perry had not done enough to reverse his polling slide and therefore was the loser. 

Let me take another angle.