Gingrich pops off on Democrats

This is the reason I wanted to see Gingrich debate Obama this fall.  His take no prisoners attitude and fearless approach, combine with a calm, sequential approach to his argument is just terrific.

Santorum Wins Louisiana (By A Lot)

Via Fox:

Rick Santorum won the Louisiana primary Saturday, solidifying his support among conservatives in the Deep South as he faces a tough next couple of weeks in state competitions that are predicted to favor frontrunner Mitt Romney. The former Pennsylvania senator won 49 percent of the vote, with Romney coming in second with 27 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in third with 17 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul finishing last with 6 percent.

Good news for the Not Romney camp.  Meanwhile, Santorum contended he's been outspent 60:1 in Wisconsin by Romney.  Ouch.  A healthy win in the deep south again helps Santorum geographically but Wisconsin will be pivotal because it is a state that has both a Midwest feel but also a more liberal base than other Midwest states.  That means either Romney or Santorum has a shot at winning it under the right circumstances.

A win for Santorum there would certainly provide a strong wind of momentum after Louisiana.  Similarly for Romney, a win could be used to portray Santorum as a regional candidate like the perception took hold for Gingrich (in a big way).

Stay tuned.

Illinois primary will go to Romney

In what I predict will be a depressing development, today's Illinois primary will shake out for Mitt Romney, despite the strength of recent Santorum showings and head-to-head polling versus Obama.  It doesn't matter in the bigger picture.  Yes, there are a lot of potential delegates for Romney to scoop up today, and it will help him progress towards the nomination.  But Illinois will vote for Obama in November anyway.

5 lessons from the Alabama & Mississippi primaries

Five lessons from the Alabama and Mississippi primary results:

1. Mitt Romney's biggest ally is the multitude of his enemies:  Alabama and Mississippi prove that the not Romney votes can continue to be split while Santorum and Gingrich remain in the race. What matters more is that Romney's delegate advantage is maintained by those votes being split between Gingrich and Santorum.

2. Santorum and Gingrich are not coordinating states among themselves and they probably should be doing so. The most effective use of the combined resources of Gingrich and Santorum in fighting Romney, in isolation from each other, rather than fighting each other as well.  That keeps that vote splitting to a minimum - split up states among each candidate and focus your limited resources in smaller, focused, controlled bursts.  In essence they can make Romney fight a two front war rather than benefiting from a free-for-all.

3. Mitt Romney's strategy of picking off easy delegates is slowly working - Hawaii, Samoa, Guam add to his total.  His third place delegates in Alabama and Mississippi aren't inconsequential either.  They aren't high profile, but the numbers still count, and they are counting in his favor.

4. Gingrich is a regional candidate. Paul is a nomad candidate.  Santorum and Romney can both claim with some validity that they have won in a broad spectrum of regions.  Gingrich cannot claim the same.  His success has been all deep south success, and even there, it's limited. Paul is becoming a non-factor and he will not have enough momentum to get a prime time slot at the GOP convention.  He may end up being given one in an attempt to buy his allegiance, but he will not have proportionally earned it.  He's fading to the status of footnote or afterthought.

5.  The night was more of a loss for Romney than anything else.  Yes Santorum gets momentum and in the long run that may be the big story.  But Mitt Romney did not close off the race and wins in those southern states would have been bold victories that could have given him the air of inevitability and sealed the nomination for him.  Instead, by playing the long game, he allowed both Santorum and Gingrich to survive.  It was a timid play.  He could have tried to end it in those southern states but he didn't.  What is striking to me is that his timidity doesn't speak favorably about how he would do as president.  No bold solutions, he would just tinker around the edges. That's not exactly what the country needs, nor what he has promised.

And after all of that, I'm still re-thinking things. 

Santorum wins Alabama and Mississippi

Santorum now the guy?

Hmm. This requires a real re-think.  Either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich could probably tackle Mitt Romney in a one on one contest in a good number of states.  

If one of them was out of the race then Mitt Romney, would not be the inevitable GOP nominee. In fact, Romney could very well be the underdog in that scenario.  Of course that would depend on the timing of a head to head Romney versus the lone Not Romney being the remainder of the race.  If it happened now it would lend more credence to a Romney defeat.  In two months, not so much.

Based on four factors, a re-think of how to view the race is necessary.  At least, for me it's necessary.

Southern Tuesday Primary Results

In a short time, Alabama and Mississippi primary results will start being reported.  My prediction is that both states will be wins for Gingrich and both states will be close.  Mississippi should be an easier win for Gingrich, he should take the state by a couple of percent.  That's close, but Alabama is likely to be as close as a few hundred votes.  Romney could even surprise for first place.

Then again, that very threat could sway a few Santorum supporters to vote for Gingrich instead to prevent a momentum builder for Romney in a southern state.  If Gingrich doesn't win in both states he's done, despite his intention to stay in.  Tonight should be interesting.

Post Super Tuesday - What's Next? Newt.

To the bitter end.

Newt Gingrich won one state yesterday.  His home state.  True, it's a lot of delegates and a big prize.  But it really does very little to help his case that he's a viable candidate.  Had he won Tennessee or Oklahoma it would have helped but he still could be seen as a regional candidate.  He needed to win Georgia  but that was the lowest possible place to set the bar.  He needed more to energize his campaign properly.  It really would have helped if he'd won a non-regional state - Alaska or Vermont perhaps.  But whether he could have or not, he didn't.  So what's next in the race becomes entirely dependent on Newt.

Super Tuesday Winners Ahead of Time

Not exciting.

I'm not all that excited about Super Tuesday because it could turn out to be the Romney show and guarantee his nomination.  I still believe he is the antithetical candidate for a Republican win against Obama in November.  Rich, out of touch and stiff, he'll be easy fodder for the Democrats to portray as a cardboard candidate without real values and without empathy.  He'll be demonized in the ceter, the same place Obama is trying to shore up his own credibility.  He's very, very vulnerable in November, and a Super Tuesday win for Romney is more likely than Santorum or Gingrich to seal the fate of the GOP chances of losing the presidency in 2012.

That is not an exciting prospect.  Super Tuesday has me as uninspired as a David Hasselhoff made for TV movie. It's not something I want to see, but because of all the hype, it's going to be on a bunch of channels.  Who knows, maybe the Germans will be excited about it.

All that said, here's how I see tomorrow playing out.

US apologize for Koran burning. Muslim response? Kill.

Briefly, the United States accidentally burned some Korans. The military apologized. President Obama, predictably, apologized. Then this:

Two American troops were gunned down by a man wearing an Afghan uniform in eastern Afghanistan Thursday, a U.S. official said Thursday.

Mohammad Hassan, a local Afghan leader in Nangarhar province, says the shooting occurred outside an American base in the province during a riot against the Koran burnings. He says the gunman was an Afghan soldier.

The shooting is the latest in a rising number of attacks on NATO troops by Afghan police and soldiers or militants dressed in their uniforms.

The obvious question: When is Afghanistan going to apologize for the killing of those Americans?  They won't.  It turns out I wasn't the only one asking this question.  Sarah Palin replied with the obvious question and Newt Gingrich adds the obvious conclusion:

“It is an outrage that President Obama is the one apologizing to Afghan President Karzai on the same day two American troops were murdered and four others injured by an Afghan soldier. It is Hamid Karzai who owes the American people an apology, not the other way around.” 

Gingrich added, “This destructive double standard whereby the United States and its democratic allies refuse to hold accountable leaders who tolerate systematic violence and oppression in their borders must come to an end.”

 BAM!

No word from Mitt Romney.

Post Debate Thoughts

Next debate: Bean bag chairs.

Unorganized, here's a stream-of-consciousness series of thoughts on the final GOP debate before Super Tuesday.

The audience in every Romney - Santorum exchange early on seemed to be members of Mitt Romney's immediate family.  Those tense exchanges made Santorum look underwhelming and made Romney look arrogant and unfriendly.  Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul probably benefited by staying out of the way and letting that train wreck happen on its own.  But when they spoke later on both Gingrich and Paul came across well.  Gingrich was the most statesmanlike.  He also had some clear and well-spoken points.  He won the debate, but he did not dominate.  He just did well, while Santorum and Romney came across poorly.

CNN Debate tonight - do or die?

Tonight's debate is especially important for each candidate as it could shape the next portion of the race, including Super Tuesday.  It's the last debate before that delegate deluge. For Mitt Romney, it's his chance to re-emerge in Arizona and Michigan.  If he loses in Michigan, by many accounts, the establishment will bail on him.  That sounds like mission critical stuff if it is true.  For Rick Santorum, attacks have been dredged, or Drudged up against him that makes this debate important for him to establish his credibility and electability.  And for Newt Gingrich, this may be his last chance to mount a last surge with a strong, positive debate performance.  For Ron Paul - this may be a rare chance to come across better on foreign relations, which is where he most lacks credibility with the Republican mainstream.

The debate may have higher ratings than previous debates I suspect, because of partisan interest and because with growing news coverage of the Republican contests, more people will be tuning in for the first time.  That makes this debate all the more critical.  Sadly, given the high expectations and the pressure to perform, I suspect 2 if not 3 of the contenders to falter.  Ron Paul, with the least pressure to exceed expectations, has the best chance of performing well, depending on the lines of questioning.  We shall see.  It should be lively.

Drudge: Déjà vu all over again

Remember when Newt Gingrich was peaking in the polls and a panicked establishment threw everything they could at Newt to make sure Mitt Romney was the winner of the Republican nomination for president?  Do you recall Matt Drudge, long a conservative news source being preeminent among Gingrich's attackers? No?  Below is a quick reminder of what happened to Gingrich, because it's started to happen again to Rick Santorum.

Drudge: Casting any and all contenders in an unfriendly light. This time, Santorum.

The right tactical move but bad strategy

Different time frame, but same principal.

Mitt Romney backed out of the CNN debate just prior to Super Tuesday (which is on March 6th). He was followed by Ron Paul and Rick Santorum in a move clearly designed not to let Newt Gingrich back into the race just prior to a mass of delegates being allocated by voters.

Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum decided to skip the March 1 debate that was to be co-hosted by CNN and the Georgia and Ohio state Republican parties, their campaigns confirmed Thursday.

CNN decided to cancel the debate after being left with a single confirmation, Newt Gingrich, who would have been left to square off solo with moderator John King. Gingrich’s camp is unlikely to be happy with the turn of events as the former House speaker has used the nationally televised spectacles to savage the media and twice revive his lagging campaign.

It was the right tactical move for that objective. After all, Newt clearly has the best debate skill of the bunch. But for at least two of the candidates, it was the wrong strategic objective.

Romney, Santorum torpedo Gingrich

More debates? No. Did I mention I don't care about the very rich or poor?

How do you ensure that Newt Gingrich can't compete and won't see another surge in voter support?  Easy - take away his greatest advantage - debates.

CNN canceled its March 1 Republican presidential debate on Thursday after three of four candidates declined to participate, citing busy campaign schedules leading to Super Tuesday on March 6.

"Mitt Romney and Ron Paul told the Georgia Republican Party, Ohio Republican Party, and CNN Thursday that they will not participate in the March 1 Republican presidential primary debate," CNN said in a statement. "Without full participation of all four candidates, CNN will not move forward with the Super Tuesday debate."

Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum also said he would not participate, leaving only former House Speaker Newt Gingrich committed to attending.

Celebrities capture candidates qualities succinctly

Not like this.

Celebrities can be pretty vacuous, but there actually a number of them who have supported and do support conservative candidates, sometimes quite surprisingly.  What's more surprising is that sometimes left or right, they nail it in describing the candidates.  

Now, I'm not talking Alec Baldwin or Sean Penn here.  Sure, they get the most attention because of their outlandish opinions, but they aren't the ones who are capturing the essence of the candidates.  

Here are a few examples.

Speaking of CPAC - Newt Gingrich

Since I couldn't attend CPAC this year, I'm posting some of the highlight speeches for myself as much as for readers who could not attend. Here's Newt Gingrich's speech.

Romney fever is not back, it was never here.

The Republican vote split - is it simply geographic?

With a win in a week-long process that finished up yesterday, Mitt Romney is back in the win column. It was predictable, as was the whole Romney-is-back-in-the-game meme in the mainstream media and the mainstream conservative media.  Romney is back, and the Santorum roll is over. But just as it was too soon to say that Romney had lost all momentum, it's too soon to say he's regained it.  No one has really had a ton of it and it is still early in the race. Maine changes nothing.

The takeaway from Santorum's second wind

It's early, but if the results hold up as they look so far, there are some takeaways from the results.

(1)  Mitt Romney is in trouble.  In the non-binding Missouri race, Rick Santorum currently leads Romney 55% to 25%.  In Minnesota Santorum leads Ron Paul 43% to 27%.  Mitt Romney has 17% and only leads Newt Gingrich's 12%.  In Colorado, Rick Santorum leads Newt Gingrich 50% to 21%, Romney trails in third with 19%. That represents three majorities of Not Romney in one night.

(2) In the bigger picture there is room for two Not Romney candidates.  Gingrich is still well positioned in the south if he plays his cards right.  Santorum clearly is well positioned elsewhere to compete with Romney.  If the two play the game intelligently, they can split the states they compete with Romney.  Alternately if either Gingrich or Santorum bow out, the remaining candidate can compete with Romney.  Either way, Mitt Romney is in trouble.

(3) Santorum may be surging.  But it is too early to claim that, just as it was to early to claim victory for Romney after Florida or Nevada.  The race is more likely a lot more fluid than pundits have realized.

(4) Mitt Romney is not doomed now.  But he is in trouble. He doesn't have this race sewn up.  Other contenders can compete.  Clearly Santorum has a claim to be the not Romney.  Gingrich can also now claim his southern states strategy is more viable than people thought last week.  And with a  lengthy lull coming after tonight (with the exception of Maine), there is time for all the candidates to reformulate their plans.

(5) Ron Paul can't win, but his share of the votes in some states can be significant.  He cannot be ignored, not forever.  What remains to be seen is how he is included or excluded from the party.

The clock is running out on Gingrich

In the weeds.

I've never worked with Newt Gingrich, so I don't have a personal dislike for him as do many in the Washington Republican establishment.  Unlike some in the conservative camp, I'm not going to hold his past personal life against him - personal issues don't disqualify you from having good ideas and the idea that people can't change is, in  my opinion, closed-minded.  Furthermore, a few bad decisions in the past don't to my mind discredit the amount of positive works done by a candidate.  Meanwhile Mitt Romney has a history of flip-flopping on some major issues.  To expect conservative consistency from him is harder to imagine.  Out of the remaining field of candidates I believe only Santorum or Gingrich are ultimately electable. Paul has too many views that are radical to be elected, and Mitt Romney has too many flip-flops and not enough conservative base support to ensure both conservatives and independents turn out in his favor.

With all that said, the clock is still running out on Newt Gingrich.  He can still defeat Mitt Romney after back-to-back defeats in Florida and Nevada, but he's got to improve his game significantly, and do so very quickly.  If time is running out for him with me, it has to be the same for a number of other conservatives watching this race.

No, Gingrich isn't dropping out

Newt Gingrich has a press conference lined up for later tonight after the Nevada caucuses have probably wrapped up.  Speculation is circling that maybe he's dropping out.  I don't think so.

Instead of the traditional election night party, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will hold a press conference after the Nevada Caucus on Saturday, raising new speculation about his future in the race.

An e-mail sent to reporters on Saturday morning set the Las Vegas press conference for 11 p.m. to midnight Eastern time. It will be held at the Venetian, a hotel run by Sheldon Adelson, who has donated millions of dollars to the pro-Gingrich super PAC Winning Our Future.