Rand Paul endorsed by..Julian Assange?

Curious news of the day - Julian Assange has praised Rand Paul.  It's not exactly an earth shattering news item but on a dull news day like today, it will make some waves.

 

Via The Daily Caller;

Responding to questions during a Google Hangout session, Assange praised the college-aged supported libertarian faction of the Republican Party as the “only hope” for U.S. electoral politics.

“The libertarian aspect of the Republican Party is presently the only useful political voice really in the U.S. Congress,” said Assange.

The Wikileaks founder also praised Ron Paul and Matt Drudge. Color me confused. Yes, there is likely some alignment on the views of Assange with the libertarian wing of the GOP. But why say that? And why say that now? Does it alienate the Occupy Wall Street crowd who probably were in support of Assange? Likely, so that's not a good reason. Similarly it doesn't appear to do anything to help Assange with his current extradition woes or with fighting the charges against him.

If he really supports Rand Paul, does he believe his endorsement will have a net positive effect on Rand Paul's support? It could have a negative effect, and very possibly could create a GOP primary split that only complicates matters. It's hard to say whether Assange's comments are helpful or hurtful in terms of net effect for both Paul and the GOP, particularly given how many people see Assange as having leaked sensitive national security details. Assange must realize that as well, which makes his comments all the more curious.

That said, the semi-endorsement is interesting and could get a lot of people thinking about Rand Paul.

Two Word Opinions - 2013 first edition

No, two REAL words.

I've been busy in my personal life to an extent that it has unfortunately disrupted regular blogging for the time being.  It doesn't mean I'm not following the news and politics or that Nonsensible Shoes is going to fade away.  But lacking time, for now I'm going to revert to some more two word opinions as a means of catching up a bit.

Ron Paul made some pretty damn insensitive remarks about the death of a Navy Seal sniper - Really dumb.

Iran might just be aligning with the newly 'democratic', Islamic Brotherhood controlled Egypt - Conservatives knew.

Post Office is shutting down Saturdays - More please.

Immigration reform on the table again with the secret ingredient being amnesty sauce - Not robust.

The GOP is getting the idea that outreach to minority voting blocks is important - not...really.

CBO claims the US will add $7 trillion in national debt over the next decade - THAT'S conservative.

That's about it for now.  Back soon.

OMG Rand Paul should be in the news cycle!

OUT: Ron Paul - kooky. (Sorry libertarians, but he is.  Yes, he's right about a lot of stuff, but he's also wrong on some important things and he is indeed, kooky).

IN: Rand Paul - reasoned, intelligent and right.

This clip should not only be in the news cycle, it should BE the news cycle. This is the single most fundamental counterpoint to Obama's unilateral actions on gun control (in this case) and it is succinct, eloquent and hard (if not impossible) to deny or dismiss  as kooky or paranoid.

EXIT Question: Does this make him a front runner for 2016 or is it just a cogent argument that will fall on deaf ears?

Big Picture: Perception of the GOP nominee

Then what?

Here's a strategic question I promised to talk about a few days back:  How is the GOP going to be perceived coming out of the nomination process?  It depends on a few factors; whether the current battle is hurting the eventual nominee, who the nominee is and even to a certain extent, what ends up happening to Ron Paul.

After the Republican party has it's nominee, that person will have to face president Obama.  The internal nomination process and the dragged out contest this year was actually a result of a design put in place by former chairman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele.  He put in place the proportional delegation assignments for states which has served to draw out the nomination process since the winner-take-all assignment, particularly in the early states, prevent a front-runner from winning too many delegates too quickly and sewing up a nomination before being vetted on a more national basis.  Of course the other factor is that the front runner hasn't really gotten the electorate to rally behind him.

CNN Debate tonight - do or die?

Tonight's debate is especially important for each candidate as it could shape the next portion of the race, including Super Tuesday.  It's the last debate before that delegate deluge. For Mitt Romney, it's his chance to re-emerge in Arizona and Michigan.  If he loses in Michigan, by many accounts, the establishment will bail on him.  That sounds like mission critical stuff if it is true.  For Rick Santorum, attacks have been dredged, or Drudged up against him that makes this debate important for him to establish his credibility and electability.  And for Newt Gingrich, this may be his last chance to mount a last surge with a strong, positive debate performance.  For Ron Paul - this may be a rare chance to come across better on foreign relations, which is where he most lacks credibility with the Republican mainstream.

The debate may have higher ratings than previous debates I suspect, because of partisan interest and because with growing news coverage of the Republican contests, more people will be tuning in for the first time.  That makes this debate all the more critical.  Sadly, given the high expectations and the pressure to perform, I suspect 2 if not 3 of the contenders to falter.  Ron Paul, with the least pressure to exceed expectations, has the best chance of performing well, depending on the lines of questioning.  We shall see.  It should be lively.

It's hard to be a security hawk these days.

OMG, I've gone hippie! Or not.

Back in 2003, conservatives rallied around president Bush when the decision to go into Iraq was made.  Even many Democrats who later disavowed denied their initial position rallied behind the decision.  Back then, so close after the events of 9/11, it was easy to believe that Iraq and Afghanistan were necessary endeavors.  In fact it was hard to argue that they were not. But after a decade of war, war-weariness has set in for much of the country.  In addition, there has been a diminishing rationale for the continued effort, especially in light of the killing of Osama Bin Laden.   What's a national security hawk to do? Give up on a robust national defense force? No.  Give up on the the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters?  Yes.  


There's a way to consolidate the GOP base and force an Obama stumble in one move - guess what it is.

The takeaway from Santorum's second wind

It's early, but if the results hold up as they look so far, there are some takeaways from the results.

(1)  Mitt Romney is in trouble.  In the non-binding Missouri race, Rick Santorum currently leads Romney 55% to 25%.  In Minnesota Santorum leads Ron Paul 43% to 27%.  Mitt Romney has 17% and only leads Newt Gingrich's 12%.  In Colorado, Rick Santorum leads Newt Gingrich 50% to 21%, Romney trails in third with 19%. That represents three majorities of Not Romney in one night.

(2) In the bigger picture there is room for two Not Romney candidates.  Gingrich is still well positioned in the south if he plays his cards right.  Santorum clearly is well positioned elsewhere to compete with Romney.  If the two play the game intelligently, they can split the states they compete with Romney.  Alternately if either Gingrich or Santorum bow out, the remaining candidate can compete with Romney.  Either way, Mitt Romney is in trouble.

(3) Santorum may be surging.  But it is too early to claim that, just as it was to early to claim victory for Romney after Florida or Nevada.  The race is more likely a lot more fluid than pundits have realized.

(4) Mitt Romney is not doomed now.  But he is in trouble. He doesn't have this race sewn up.  Other contenders can compete.  Clearly Santorum has a claim to be the not Romney.  Gingrich can also now claim his southern states strategy is more viable than people thought last week.  And with a  lengthy lull coming after tonight (with the exception of Maine), there is time for all the candidates to reformulate their plans.

(5) Ron Paul can't win, but his share of the votes in some states can be significant.  He cannot be ignored, not forever.  What remains to be seen is how he is included or excluded from the party.

Why are you voting for Romney?

How does this make any sense to you?  Check out this video for Ron Paul, that gets it right on Flip Romney.  Please watch the whole thing.

Good years start badly. (GOP Edition)

Through anecdotal evidence from my own life, I have noticed that if a year starts out well it turns out poorly and if it starts out on a bad note, it turns out to be a great year.  Hopefully that turns out to be true for the GOP as the year is starting out pretty poorly for them.  Let me catch up on a few items as evidence.

President Obama is working his way around the Constitution on what he and the media are positioning as recess appointments (for example Richard Cordray) - except the Senate is not in recess, it's in session, pro-forma.  A technicality perhaps, but there are now legal questions that the GOP will probably avoid raising for feat of being portrayed as petty obstructionists rather than upholders of the Constitution.  Wonderful.

Part 2b - GOP primaries – The Wildcards (cont.)

NOTE: this post is a continuation of Part 2a - GOP primaries – The Wildcards.

In addition to the wild card factor posed  by Sarah Palin and Donald Trump, there is some wild card factor with two people still in the race - Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.  How will they affect the race?

Part 1 - GOP primaries – after Iowa, what next?

Spoilers alert.

The Iowa primary race is a watershed moment for the GOP presidential race. Right now the possible paths, even knowing the likely outcomes of the Iowa caucuses are too numerous to contemplate. But if we winnow it down to a number of possible first stage results, some of the likely consequences and next steps can be extrapolated.

The likely outcomes of Iowa based on polling are possible to narrow down. The polling could result in a number of different Iowa winners, despite the decidedly large number of undecided Iowans. To simplify, let’s narrow the field into two buckets – Top 4 finishers, and Also-rans. Perhaps a bit harsh, but this is politics, so there’s no need to couch the wording in niceties.

Ron Paul's just past his apex moment.

Ron Paul may start to see the end of his surge.  Rick Perry called conservatives heartless and that was the start of his popularity slide (along with weak debate performances ensuring he wouldn't sustain his opening momentum).  Now Ron Paul goes after conservative hawks calling their concerns over a nuclear Iran fear mongering.

Via ABC:

I don’t believe people are going to come over here and commit suicide to prove that we’re rich and free. They don’t do that. They come because they’re angry at us... 

But sometimes it seems out of control and unreasonable, because the other argument is maybe there’s people in our country that would like to get the oil. Could that possibly be it? It seems like we go into countries more when they have oil...

Iran is not a physical threat to us. They do not have capabilities. The stories you might hear about them being on the verge of a nuclear weapon is not true by our CIA and by the United Nations they are not on the verge of it.

ABC goes on to note;

The International Atomic Energy Agency or IAEA released a report last month that expressed “serious concerns” that Iran is developing a “nuclear explosive device.’

Those positions of Paul on foreign policy will be his undoing. I think his popularity growth might will see a decline over the coming 6 to 8 weeks.

How to derail Newt: See Ron Paul

Doesn't matter who does it, the result will be the same.

A lot of the attacks of Newt Gingrich have been that he really isn't a conservative he's a big government Republican, or a technocrat who may have conservative ideals but is far too susceptible to solutions that have huge downside government overreach implications.  That's the real worry that his opponents are trying to play on.  If Mitt Romney is wishy-washy and a say anything faux conservative, Newt Gingrich has too much baggage and is not really conservative either.

The secret if you want to derail Gingrich is in the approach that Ron Paul has towards government.  It's not about rolling back Obama's big government progressive agenda and replacing it with another conservative idea, it's about rolling it back and replacing it with nothing from government.  

The new meme for Romney

With a new poll showing Ron Paul surging into second place in  Iowa, a lot of attention will shift to Paul.  Who knows, he may win Iowa.  But his candidacy just isn't sustainable.  He's stuck with the same problem as Romney - a steady base of support but not really much room to grow beyond his core supporters (at least for now).  The real story that might emerge over the next couple of weeks is a new meme for Mitt Romney.

Perhaps Romney has peaked and he's now experiencing the slide that all of his not-Romney contenders have so far faced.  Could the new meme for Romney be "it's over"?  Quite possibly.

You can say you heard it here first.

UPDATE:  While I'd like to take credit for a special insight the poll may just be an outlier at this point. Furthermore, while I said Romney's comment about a $10,000 was a problem for Romney, but not a big one, I may have missed the fact that the media tried to make it into a story bigger than it was, and they may have succeeded.  We'll soon see.

GOP foreign policy debate: No real winner

In the first hour of the South Carolina GOP candidates debate, there was no clear winner. In the bonus on-line time, there wasn't much difference. Everyone did well, and as Newt Gingrich pointed out, everyone on that stage would be an improvement over president Obama.  Everyone handled themselves as expected, and there were no real surprises.

Who is involved in the OWS movement?

Do these people speak for you?

The Occupy Wall street effort is garnering a lot of support from the usual suspects and a few who are a complete surprise.  But the movement is claiming it speaks for 99% of the country and there really isn't that sort of mass behind it in real numbers.  Regardless of who is behind it or who is involved, the real question goes deeper than the names and the message, it's the claims that they speak for all of us that need to be addressed.

But first - who supports this? George Soros of course is involved. He's heavily involved, though his spokespeople claim ignorance and he claims nothing.  And then there's the usual cadre of celebrities - everyone is familiar with Roseanne Barr's foolish comments.  No one would be surprised to hear that Susan Sarandon, Michael Moore, Kanye West and Alec Baldwin are involved and/or supportive.  That's not really news.

GOP moving parts almost stop moving. Let's predict.

Oh really now?

With Sarah Palin and Chris Christie bowing out of the race, the nominees are pretty much locked.  With states moving up their caucuses and primaries, the dates are locking in and coming soon.  The moving parts are stopping their moving and locking in for the GOP nomination process.  With things locking down predictions about what is likely to happen are somewhat easier, though by no means have they become a simple task.  The ubiquitous "a lot can happen between now and..." still applies.

Just ask the guy on the left.

Things change, and we can't wait for the next one.  The question is, who will it be to replace America's significant O?

First thoughts on the GOP candidates' debate

Some quick thoughts on the GOP presidential primary debate tonight.

Bachmann, Palin and haiku

At this point, anything that doesn't resemble "Obama wins" is an exciting thing for conservatives to see.  While the straw poll isn't anything official as far as the race goes, it's probably more interesting to note that Ron Paul, highly organized in this sort of contest didn't win.  He in fact ran second.  Bachmann won.  Does that help her or is it just what was expected?

Debt Ceiling: Ron Paul's ideas

Via his op-ed in Bloomberg;

Proponents of raising the debt ceiling claim that a default on Aug. 2 is unprecedented and will result in calamity (never mind that this is simply an arbitrary date, easily changed, marking a congressional recess). My expectations of such a scenario are more sanguine.

The U.S. government defaulted at least three times on its obligations during the 20th century...

It isn’t too late to return to fiscal sanity. We could start by canceling out the debt held by the Federal Reserve, which would clear $1.6 trillion under the debt ceiling. Or we could cut trillions of dollars in spending by bringing our troops home from overseas, making gradual reforms to Social Security and Medicare, and bringing the federal government back within the limits envisioned by the Constitution.

Default will be painful, but it is all but inevitable for a country as heavily indebted as the U.S. Just as pumping money into the system to combat a recession only ensures an unsustainable economic boom and a future recession worse than the first, so too does continuously raising the debt ceiling only forestall the day of reckoning and ensure that, when it comes, it will be cataclysmic.

We have a choice: default now and take our medicine, or put it off as long as possible, when the effects will be much worse.

Medicine.