Saturday Learning Series - Geography (Libya)

The geography of Libya.


And the flag:

The final presidential debate

The final presidential debate goes tonight.  The topic is foreign policy.  This is supposed to be an Obama stronghold and months ago they were probably thrilled that this topic would be the closer of the debates.  But now I'm sure they are a bit worried.  The over under on Obama mentioning getting Bin Laden is about 11, because really, that's all they've got.  He may also try to spin the Arab Spring as one of his successes.  Reality however, flies in the face of his supposed strength.

The quick skinny on a number of foreign affairs.

Libyagate?

The crisis still smoldering in the Middle East, the focus should be on ensuring the safety of American diplomatic personnel as well as civilians who may be in harm's way.  Nevertheless with the stonewalling coming from the White House, attention must turn to Libyagate - what did the president know, and when did he know that there was danger for Americans?

Apologizer in Chief

In case you hadn't heard, the Middle East seems to be collapsing into an Islamist utopia where Americans serve as pinatas and violence is the norm.  Tunisia, Egypt and Libya all are disturbingly ill at ease.

As Americans gathered Tuesday to mark the eleventh anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, angry Muslims stormed the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya, killing four Americans, including the U.S. ambassador. Similar attacks had occurred hours earlier at the U.S. embassy in Egypt and now there are reports that Muslims in Algeria and Tunisia are being called on to carry out similar attacks.

To say the president has reacted poorly, and politically to the entire situation is an understatement. The apologizer in chief, has stayed true to form and Iranian hostage crisis 2.0 is warming up.

Is it possible to learn from history? Apparently not if you are an American president determined to win the love of the Islamic world. Over 33 years ago, Islamist rioters stormed an American embassy. U.S. sovereignty was violated and hostages were taken. The immediate response from America, though, was conciliatory–as if those who had insulted the United States could be convinced to think better of their target if those who had just been attacked made enough apologies. The result was the Iran hostage crisis that helped bring down the administration of Jimmy Carter. You might think American diplomats would have learned the lessons of Carter’s Iran debacle but judging by the statement issued today by the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, Egypt, perhaps that chapter of history is no longer considered required reading in the age of Obama.

Whether Obama can distance himself from an embassy's apology is not as important as the fact that he has set the tone with his behavior with allies and enemies alike and even dating back to his apology tour of the Middle East.  Lost in all of this appears to be Obama's snub of Netanyahu recently vis-a-vis Iran.

It's hard to be a security hawk these days.

OMG, I've gone hippie! Or not.

Back in 2003, conservatives rallied around president Bush when the decision to go into Iraq was made.  Even many Democrats who later disavowed denied their initial position rallied behind the decision.  Back then, so close after the events of 9/11, it was easy to believe that Iraq and Afghanistan were necessary endeavors.  In fact it was hard to argue that they were not. But after a decade of war, war-weariness has set in for much of the country.  In addition, there has been a diminishing rationale for the continued effort, especially in light of the killing of Osama Bin Laden.   What's a national security hawk to do? Give up on a robust national defense force? No.  Give up on the the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters?  Yes.  


There's a way to consolidate the GOP base and force an Obama stumble in one move - guess what it is.

Arab Spring Hangover

Found on Drudge Report, the following three news stories showing a common thread.  The Arab Spring isn't exactly what the president has been promising.  Forget Afghanistan, Syria and the problems in Iran, just check out the news items below, and see for yourself, things are falling apart fast.

That's not good news for those who held out the Utopian hope that the Arab Spring would usher in a Western, secular, liberal set of cultures in the Middle East.  It turns out, not so much.  Who would have thought?

Obama: Politics before leadership (part 2)

Another reminder about what motivates president Obama more than leadership - politics.  In this case, afraid to do something about a brutal Iranian regime, the president still tries to come across as thoughtful and nuanced and strong.  Why?  Because what happens in Iran doesn't matter as much as how it impacts the president at home.  If that wasn't the case, why was Egypt handled differently?  Or Libya?  Because Obama had to come across as both sensitive to the freedoms of others and also a little tougher than before.

First Iran;

Then Egypt, when Obama was still stinging from doing nothing during the Iranian Green Revolution;

And finally, Libya which he somehow sees as different than both Egypt and Iran;

Why the inconsistencies?  Oh right, this:

And the politics before leadership motif.

What to look for in CNN's GOP debate tonight

CNN is hosting another in a series of seemingly endless GOP primary debates tonight.  The topic: foreign policy and national security.  This will be the second foreign policy debate, and it provides candidates one more opportunity to make an impression on voters for better or worse.  There's two things I'd expect to see in the debate tonight.

Throw out all the GOP polls right NOW.

Forget the latest polls showing Gingrich, Cain and Romney all in the top tie and neck-and-neckr.  People weren't prepared to let Perry get away with a debate gaffe forgetting something fundamental.  Cain just committed an equally bad political sin - looking lost in answering a question.

So forget the polls out today - a week from now, barring more surprises,  it will be only Gingrich and Romney in the top tier.  After this, the media will see to it that everyone knows Cain is not ready for prime time.

Painful.

Foreign policy is a key component of the presidency.  Cain may have some great ideas but it has become apparent that he's not ready for every aspect of the presidency.

Clearly, it ain't easy in the Middle East

The president got it really wrong on Iran. He has it wrong on the pullout in Iraq and Afghanistan.  He messed up on Egypt and appeared pretty muddled and reactive on Libya.  He's managed to overlook Syria during some brutal repression.  Pressure might mount for him to do something.  The problem is, it probably won't be something very forward looking.  He's got no credibility on foreign affairs aside from some credit for getting Bin Laden and his computer files - which wasn't really him so much as it was the government apparatus that he doesn't like - the military, the CIA etc.  Foreign affairs isn't a matter of capturing terrorists anyway.

Obama's record: Taliban victory is a symptom

Fox News is reporting another attack on NATO forces in Afghanistan. Kabul is the location of the latest attack, which seems to be part of a Taliban ramping up of efforts on the heels of the Iraq pullout and ongoing Afghanistan troop draw down.

Afghanistan -- A U.S. official says all 13 NATO service members killed in a suicide bombing in the Afghan capital were American troops.

The Taliban is going to win the PR war.  Democrats constantly banged the drum that Bush failed to win the peace. Aside from being in the right place at the right time to kill Osama Bin Laden, president Obama has not done anything substantive to win the peace.  What's worse, is the fact that leading up to the eventual withdrawal  of U.S. and NATO forces, the Taliban is winning the PR war.  They'll eventually be able to claim (erroneously) that they drove the U.S. out.  It will create fear in the Afghan population.  They could bulldoze their way back into power.  They likely will.

It's symptomatic of a very large problem. Cluelessness.

Obama's Bush fires

President Obama even now talks about how terrible of an economy he inherited from President Bush (with nary a word about the influence of the Democrat controlled Congress). But he forgets to mention the wealth of positive effort he inherited when it comes to the War on Terror.

Quick Two Word Opinions

Here's a few more quick hit opinions on recent news items that I haven't had a chance to expound more thought on.

Gaddafi has been killed in Libya, ending his malfeasance forever - About time.

Greece is on the verge of collapse and the EU is at odds about bailing them out again - About time.

Joe Biden wants to run for president in 2016 - Great idea.

U.S. troops will be out of Iraq by year end - election bait.

#OWS Occupt Wall Street continues - Really? Yawn.

The Washington Post did a hit piece on Marco Rubio about his parents - no accountability.

Herman Cain leads the Nevada straw poll - Raising Cain.  (I had to say it somewhere).

Some new two word opinions

Again I'm swamped.  But I've got some more quick - very quick, in fact two word opinions - on some of the latest news items because I just can't let them pass without saying something.

Let's all pretend Obama is tough now.

Yes, I'm this great.

Let's assume for the sake of discussion that President Obama's new found toughness is real and not a re-election tactic designed to fool semi-aware voters. Even if he is suddenly a tough guy, it doesn't make his foreign policy and foreign relations effort any less inept.  But that won't stop the White House and a complicit press from trying to spin the yarn about a tough guy President - an image they feel he needs for re-election in 2012.

Obama toughness and voters

I have this nagging suspicion that President Obama has two reasons to go long on war.  He has to prove to a doubtful electorate that he's a tough guy, that's he's not squeamish when it comes to flexing American muscle.  That killing Bin Laden thing has been a bright spot on an otherwise disjointed abysmal record.  He needs a Second Act. He may also have that starve-the-beast mentality towards the military: stretch them so thin with entanglements that there's a collapse in effectiveness and perhaps support for that type of spending.  

Obama the tough?

Is Obama already in pre-election mode? Is Obama the apologist now Obama the tough? Or at least trying to be? Think about what has happened over the last month in foreign affairs. No peace brokering between Israel and Palestinians. It has swung 180 degrees from that type of talk from the White House to an invasion of Libya and the killing of Bin Laden.

Has someone in the White House looked at some polling data and decided to boost Obama's foreign policy credibility? Is the calculus that Obama seems too much like Alan Alda and not enough like Iron Man?  If this Obama the tough is meant to shore up some moderates (read - the not paying attention crowd) then it may have some small effect. And if that's the case then is there more to come?

Syria-sly, We Mean It.

I'm a tough guy.  Syria-sly. I mean it.

Finally President Obama has gotten semi-serious on Syria. The Guardian reports;

Today, after a reported 200 deaths over a couple of weeks during which the Syrian regime has been using live ammo against its own citizens and by its own admission, the White House condemned the regime:

"We are deeply concerned by reports that Syrians who have been wounded by their government are being denied access to medical care. The escalating repression by the Syrian government is outrageous, and the United States strongly condemns the continued efforts to suppress peaceful protesters. President Assad and the Syrian government must respect the universal rights of the Syrian people, who are rightly demanding the basic freedoms that they have been denied."

I can't quit my day job

On a day when Paul Ryan has proposed a budget plan with $6.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years, a plan that apparently addresses Social Security, Medicare and/or Medicaid, I'm stuck being busy at work - too busy to even read about it, let alone comment.  That's frustrating but I can't quit my day job.

On a day when a government shutdown is a distinct possibility because Democrats are orchestrating just that, I'm too busy to comment, but I can't quit my day job.

Libyan rebels in Brega, the same rebels the Obama administration is both covertly and overtly defending, are taking a pounding from Qadhafi forces, I'm too busy to find out more, but I can't quit my day job.

On a day where Nancy Pelosi is acting hypocritical and exhibiting verbal hyperbole - well that's just normal, never mind that one.

On a day where Obamacare took a Congressional hit via a portion being repealed, I can't do a deep dive into what's going on, but I can't quit my day job.

Unlike a Wisconsin teacher's union protester, I don't know a doctor who can write me a phony doctor's note saying I'm suffering from some illness. 

I can't quit my day job.  In fact I don't really want to quit my day job.  In fact I'm happy to be a productive member of society in the private sector and not a government worker.  In fact those people don't want me to quit my day job either - I have to fund their retirements.

CIA in Libya - Vietnam II?

Even before the Gulf of Tonkin incident, the CIA was involved in Vietnam. Their actions there predated  the onset of the actual war. With military air strikes being layered in before the ground war really got started.  The CIA was their for training as well as intel.  There was a path of escalation.  

Now it turns that the CIA was apparently there in Libya before the the no fly zone was put in place.  The point is that there was a path of escalation in Vietnam that has an eerie resemblance to the situation early on in Libya.  Is this a repeat of Vietnam?  It's way too early for any serious consideration of that, but if you see some Libyan forces attack on U.S. personnel, planes or even ships, I'd be prepared for a response just like the Gulf of Tonkin response.  Likely?  No, but certainly possible.  

The Vietnam war was started by a Democrat, so I'm just throwing the idea out there as a not fully formed notion, much the way the Libyan response from Obama didn't seem to be fully formed.  Except with the news about the CIA, I'm not so sure there wasn't some sort of escalation path the White House may have had in mind all along.