Duped protesters, lol

 Just for fun, lol.

Outrage: rules for thee but not for Democrats

JFK Jr. can't get off the ballot in swing states Michigan and Wisconsin, but Kamala Harris was able to be swapped in for Let's Go Brandon no problem... yeah, elections are totally fair.

Here's your threat to democracy:

The real danger for the Trump 2024 campaign

Donald Trump is an infinitely better candidate for president than Kamala Harris. He'd be a much better debater if she musters the courage to debate Trump (she probably won't and that alone is very telling). Trump would of course make an infinitely better president than Kamala Harris. We know this. But there's reason to worry. The Democrats are not playing to win, they're playing to be able to be in a position to say they won.

If you look at the RealClearPolitics poll averages in the swing states (something I urge you to do with caution as it averages polls that are not alike), as of today, Trump still leads Harris in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. He's only trailing in Michigan, but thanks mainly to a highly unlikely outlier poll. If the entire current RCP state of affairs holds true, Trump will get 297 electoral college votes and win the presidency.

But here's the catch, the polls, particularly including the outliers, have significantly dampened the lead Trump holds.  In fact they've depressed the margins strongly enough (again as of now), that it would be fairly easy for Democrats to pad the vote totals and steal the election in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  Those two states alone would swing the election to Harris given enough ballot stuffing. And the Trump leads are a bit tight. You could also add Georgia to the list of possible Harris steals. Maybe even Arizona. 

The real danger therefore, is not Trump being unable to win the right combination of states to win the electoral college, the danger is not winning the right combination of states by enough votes to overcome cheating on an epic scale by Democrats in those states.  If Kamala Harris does indeed choose inexplicably popular Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, being able to cheat Pennsylvania into her column becomes infinitely easier.  If she holds the suspect polls for Michigan, that means any one Wisconsin, Georgia or Arizona would capture the Whitehouse for the Democrat.

The map with Harris as the Democrat nominee should be at least as easy for Trump as it was with Let's Go Brandon, but the truth is, it got harder. Not through legitimacy, but the bar to provably win each swing state got higher.

Governor Series: WI - Tim Michels

Tim Michels is not a politician. Endorsed by President Trump. He’s a business leader, he’s a builder, and he’s a veteran. And he's closing in the polls. He's the governor Wisconsin needs, his opponent is clearly not.

Senate Series: WI - Ron Johnson

 Wisconsin, if you don't vote for Ron Johnson, THIS could be your representation in the senate: 

7th Circuit Court dismissed Trump Wisconsin lawsuit and...

 ...a few questions remain and some new ones get added.  Via Viva Frei:

Joe Biden got fewer votes than Hillary or Obama in every state except MI, PA, GA, WI

The very states that the election is turning on see a Biden surge?  One of which he explicitly stated he wanted to take away their energy industry. That's some amazing coincidence, isn't it?  

This video sort of buries that lead, but it's still a good watch.  What is striking is how little credence has been given to the concerns about transparency by the Left.  It's purposeful, it's hypocritical and it's anti-democratic.

Hey Georgia, when you run out of ballots, start counting napkins

...and empty cereal boxes.  Oh, and change your state motto to "Cheat To Win".  I thought Georgia was a state where people gave a crap. Turns out it only takes enough of them to crap on democracy to wipe out a country.  Good for you.

Pennsylvania you're not exempt either.  Bill Burr was 100% as right about Philadelphia.

Michigan, well we didn't really expect anything out of you anyway. You never fail to disappoint until you do it so much it becomes the expectation.

Wisconsin, now that's a real disappointment.  I'm not gonna lie, I had hopes for you.

Arizona makes no sense anymore and Nevada, I hope Las Vegas gets swallowed up by the desert.  Been there once, recently in fact, had a great time.  Guess what - never going back again. Enjoy the Raiders until they move back to Oakland and you are left with a giant empty stadium.

Okay, that felt good.  Back to normal.

Midterms Matter: In Wisconsin 1, please support Bryan Steil

If you live in Wisconsin's 1st congressional district and support common sense government, please don't forget to get out on November 6th and vote for Bryan Steil.  HE should win the congressional seat but won't win if people take for granted that he will win. 

Midterms Matter: In Wisconsin 3rd District, please support Steve Toft

Another district that voted for president Obama (by 11 points) but also swung over and voted for president Trump (by 4.5%) is Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district. Steve Toft is seeking to unseat Democrat Ron Kind.  Steve Toft has an important reason for running:

I am not and never planned to be a politician, but after serving my country for 32 years I knew that it was time to stand again and serve. Our country is being torn apart by the career politicians is Washington who are more interested in getting re-elected than serving their constituents. The problems facing this great nation need to be addressed by those who have the fortitude and desire to make the tough decisions no matter the cost. 

This is why I am running to represent the 3rd District and am asking for your vote. 

- Col. (Ret.) Steve Toft

Please vote for Steve Toft.  Do what you can to support his campaign; donate, volunteer, visit his website and please vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: For Wisconsin Senate, please support Leah Vukmir

Leah Vukmir is a courageous conservative who stands for values shared across Wisconsin.

Leah Vukmir is a nurse, military mom, and conservative with a proven record of reform.

As a state Representative and Senator, Leah stood with conservatives across Wisconsin to enact some of the most sweeping, pro-job reforms ever enacted, including Governor Walker’s signature Act 10 legislation. In the face of death threats, Leah refused to back down and continues to be one of the leading voices to keep pushing Wisconsin in a more conservative direction.

Now, Leah’s running for the U.S. Senate for her family and ours, for the people who feel ignored by Washington elites and fear that no one in Washington has their back.

Her opponent still has a solid lead in this race but it is not a deserved lead. Tammy Baldwin was asleep at the wheel and allowed veterans to suffer under her watch and followed that up by engaging a leftist political lawyer who later got caught up in the Russia dossier scandal. In the former scandal regarding veteran abuse, she was the only Congressional representative from Wisconsin given a warning by the government Inspector General about the abuses. She did nothing.

She was given a chance to speak about her lack of outrage regarding immigrant family separation under president Obama when she was speaking out about it happening under president Trump.  The hypocrisy apparently left her unable to speak effectively.

Conversely Leah Vukmir is a a good person, a strong candidate and she deserves your vote. Please support her efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out her positions on her website.  And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

Here's a Good Question

How is it that the Russians supposedly knew to focus on Wisconsin in the 2016 election and the Hillary Clinton campaign didn't?   Watch John Podesta get asked that question on Face The Nation, and get flumoxed.

He has an answer as part of the broader context; "Russia mattered".  What mattered more is that the Hillary campaign was moribund, ill-managed and clueless.  In the Mueller indictment they also indicate that there was no impact on the election that resulted from these activities.

Podesta pointed out that the this focused only on the social media aspect of Russian interference (which incidentally after the election was directed full force at president Trump).  That's an interesting take given that if there was something much more palpable, like collusion, it would have come first, or at a minimum been mentioned as a pending part of the investigation. So, nope.

The liberal/media/liberal-media narrative has fallen apart.  They are scrambling to find another reason to discredit the Trump presidency.

Saturday Learning Series - Ben Shapiro, University of Wisconsin

The entire lecture of Ben Shapiro at University of Wisconsin. in 2016

Catching up on Selective Vote Recounts

Green Party candidate Jill Stein is trying to initiate a recount in 3 states that Donald Trump won.  Not in any states that Hillary Clinton won, only Trump state wins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  The selectivity is even more odd since Hillary Clinton has suddenly joined the challenge after publicly admonishing Trump before the election for not agreeing to abide by the results.

Stein seems like she's angling for funding for her party as the Kickstarter campaign or whatever is asterisked to state that any funds not used for a recount will go to the Green Party.  Given that she's already missed the deadline for Pennsylvania, that Wisconsin and Michigan alone won't change the election results even in the unlikely event they flipped - she could be angling just to raise funds.  That's pretty cynical and manipulative of her, but hey it's politics and anyone thinking the Green Party is squeaky clean would end up with the government they deserve - a crooked one.

What's more interesting is the Democrats and Clinton looking to join in on the recount.  Three theories have been advanced (1) they're actually trying to steal the election (2) they're planting the seeds to delegitimize a Trump presidency because he lost the electoral college and didn't make 270 votes by certification day and had to be appointed by the Republicans thanks to a few states being tangled up in legal proceedings ("selected not elected" like Bush) or (3) they're trying to hide their own ballot tampering efforts and don't want it coming out.

All three are possible, the first two would be unsuccessful ultimately.  The third one is the most intriguing consideration.  But I don't know that participation would amount to successfully hiding their own nefarious activities.   And of course if  they are successful we'll never know that it was their intention.  The Democrats' end-game here is not clear but to steal 70,000 votes in PA is impossible.  Michigan and Wisconsin would leave the electoral college at 280-252 in Trump's favor.  With Hillary Clinton leading the popular vote by 1.7 million votes Democrats might claim Trump has no mandate whatsoever. That might be their real goal; setting themselves up for the 2018 midterm elections where they will already be playing defense.

Two contested conventions?

Back about six weeks ago, I tried to do the calculus on who would win what state for both the Democratic primaries.  I even posted about some of it.  I need to dig out my Excel tables and see how I did on a state-by-state basis.  But from the perspective of now, the races both are a lot more interesting than they were a week ago.

Ted Cruz trounced Trump in Wisconsin and Bernie Sanders has bested Clinton in a impressively growing string of contests too.  It's becoming more and more possible (the unDemocratic super-delegates aside) that both parties end up having contested conventions if recent trends hold.  I doubt many people would have guessed that a week ago.

Buckle your seat belts. 

And as an unrelated aside R.I.P. Merle Haggard.

Wisconsin Senate: Tommy Thompson

Because debt sucks.

Gun violence solution cart before the discussion horse

On the left side of the page: totalitarian brotherhood.

The United States is unique in it's Constitutional protection of the right to bear arms. It is also the one country  in the world that, despite claims both the left and the right raise when the other side is in charge, is least likely to devolve into a dictatorship.  

The two points are highly correlated - a well-armed, and well-informed populace cannot be cajoled or bullied into submission to a dictatorial power.  While the left has seen to it for decades that the people of the United States have not been well-informed (or indeed, have been deliberately misinformed), the holy grail has remained a non-armed society.  An unarmed society is or can be made, a compliant society.  Take away people's information and take away their arms, and they are easy prey to a dictatorial regime.  If the left realizes this they are deliberately seeking to undermine the primary notion of the nation - liberty.  Just as bad, if they don't realize it, they are paving the path for a future dictator wherein it will be too late for them to realize the folly of their ways.

Wet Blanket? Obama leading in Wisconsin, Virginia.

Basking in the glow of a Scott Walker Republican win in the Wisconsin special recall election, it's hard to imagine that Wisconsin wouldn't be in play come the November presidential election.  Michael Barone did an excellent job of dissecting the exit polling there that said voters still preferred Obama to Romney .  The lesson - exit polling is still a flawed tool.  But today there is a new poll out by We Ask America that shows Obama is still leading in the state according to The Hill..

President Obama has a 5-point lead over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin, according to a We Ask America poll released Thursday.

Obama leads Romney 48 percent to 43 in the first survey to be conducted in Wisconsin since Gov. Scott Walker (R) won his recall election on Tuesday.

That margin is unchanged from the Real Clear Politics average of polls from before the election, when Obama held a 49 percent to 44 lead over Romney. However, some recent polls showed

Obama with a considerably larger lead. The president led by 12 in a Marquette University poll released last week, and by 10 in a Reason-Rupe survey...

Is that a wet blanket for the GOP?  It might be.  We Ask America used likely voters, not registered voters.  Likely voter models like Rasmussen typically skew more towards Republicans than Democrats which means that bit of inherent Democratic advantage seen in many polls is already discounted.  The good news for Romney is that he leads among independents in Wisconsin in this poll.  Barely, but he leads.  The other good news is that 9% of voters and 18% o0f independents remain undecided.

The raw numbers don't seem to be available, but the Republican/Democrat/Independent split may have an unreasonable skew towards Democrats as polls quite often do.  So it might be a wet blanket but not necessarily.  Time will tell as more post-Walker win polling gets done.  And the Wisconsin poll did not happen in isolation today.

According to the fairly reliable Quinnipiac polling, there's also an Obama 5 point lead in the state of Virginia:

President Obama has a 5-point lead over Mitt Romney in the critical battleground state of Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday.

Obama leads 47-42, down from 50-42 in the same poll from March.

Not comforting, but the caveats do bode better for Romney than the headline in this case.  The poll is among registered voters, not likely voters - that should indicate the race in Virginia will be tighter than Quinnipiac is reporting. I was unable to see the partisan split between Republicans, Democrats and Independents but curiously, independents were breaking in the state for Obama 45% to 37% with only 7% responding they were undecided (Don't Know).  The other noticeable skew was women breaking heavily for Obama.  The poll is more of a wet blanket for me than the We Ask America poll, or the good news coming out of Michigan today.

Overall, polling or no, I'd rather be in Mitt Romney's shoes today than president Obama's.  The tailwinds right now are very clearly heading in one direction.

Walker, Wisconsin Ranger

Wisconsin governor Scott Walker has survived his recall election in style, with a significant cushion in his lead versus his original election.  The governor's gutsy refusal to back down in the face of over-the-top protests from the pro-union crowd has vindicated him, and elevated his stature in the conservative pantheon.  It may have put Wisconsin in play for the general election.  It certainly has helped the GOP with it's ground game in Wisconsin this fall, and probably puts the Obama campaign in a position to have to spend some time and treasure in a state it didn't think it would need to do so, come fall. 

It may also represent an inflection point with respect to government unions beyond just Wisconsin.  It certainly represents a win from a Tea Party perspective and strikes a blow for fiscal sanity.

The positives just keep compounding.  Kudos to Walker for sticking to in Chuck Norris fashion.

Is the nature of perception anathema to fiscal conservatism?

Wisconsin, where perception matters.

Today in the WSJ, there was an article talking about vindication for Wisconsin governor Scott Walker vis a vis the budget conflict he had had with teachers and their misguided students last year. The WSJ argues that the resulting recall election effort isn't going to work because Walker's budget has led to a decrease in property taxes that will cause voters to appreciate the Walker belt tightening effort in the state. Lower property taxes are indeed a rarity in Wisconsin.

“The public employee unions and other liberals are confident that Wisconsin voters will turn out Governor Scott Walker in a recall election later this year, but not so fast. That may turn out to be as wrong as some of their other predictions as Badger State taxpayers start to see tangible benefits from Mr. Walker's reforms—such as the first decline in statewide property taxes in a dozen years.

On Monday Mr. Walker's office released new data that show the property tax bill for the median home fell by 0.4% in 2011, as reported by Wisconsin's municipalities. Property taxes, which are the state's largest revenue source and mainly fund K-12 schools, have risen every year since 1998—by 43% overall. The state budget office estimates that the typical homeowner's bill would be some $700 higher without Mr. Walker's collective-bargaining overhaul and budget cuts.”