July 31, 2024

Bloomberg/Morning Consult Polls a mess

According to the Bloomberg / Morning Consult polls Kamala Harris has wiped out Trump's lead in most swing states and now has a commanding electoral college lead.  This is what the map looks like if their data is to be taken seriously:


Just how fantastical is it? One week ago polling showed Trump with a slight lead or at least a tie in Michigan.  Now according to the Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls, Harris leads Trump by... 11%?????

In one week? Highly suspect, that's all I have to say. I looked at the 500+ page crosstab. It didn't help. I'm not saying their swing state polls are wrong, but I am more apt to believe that than they are correct. Especially when they are so far off from other recent polls.

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