There's some good news for Canadian conservatives

Canadian conservatives need to hear this:

Good luck Poilievre

Ergo, good luck Canada, tonight.

Trump endorses both candidates in Arizona race

Well played Mr. President, well played!

More Canada stuff: Liberals have sucked for a long time

Canada's lost decade thanks entirely to Liberal idiocy. My fellow Canadians, pay attention and do not vote Liberal:

Canada following behind America again?

Canada moving back to the right, right before the election. After the left's post-Trudeau euphoria blasted the Liberals back into first place in the polling, polls have done a U-turn. Hopefully a strong enough one that Pierre Poilievre wins big. We'll see. Canada needs some common sense back.

Pierre Poilievre MUST win the Canadian election!

Here's why. The contrast here is so stark:

Canadian Liberals, still cheating

I'm fearful for my country. We truly are one impending election away from the point of no return.

In Canada, conservative leader is recovering from post Trudeau leftist bump

In Canada the next federal election is on April 28th. Justin Trudeau's replacement (the equally awful Mark Carney), saw a massive polling swing in favor of the Liberal party, just because it was no longer Justin Trudeau running. The conservatives, who had been poised to win a massive super-majority, and provide a strong ally for Trump going forward, got swamped in polls post-Liberal-leadership-change and post-Trump-pronouncements. 

But as time wore on, the polls have started revert to the previous state. The question is will the trend have enough time to continue moving before election day.  Make no mistake a Liberal win here is terrible news for Canadians but also bad news for America as they will turn the tariff situation into an all out trade war. That's bad for everyone.

This man has to win Canada's coming election

Trump's fallout in Canada is horrible

The Conservative party in Canada as recently as December had a 29 point lead in the polls. This is what has happened since Trump's tariffs pronouncements.

Canadians have rallied around the Liberal government and it's new leader in response to what they perceive as a bully. Canada had the potential to elect a strong leader who would be an effective and strong ally of the United States. That opportunity may now be lost. The leftist Liberals have surged not only back into the race but potentially have enough support to win in a landslide. With a multi-party system, 42% is enough to dominate parliament.

I have been a strong Trump supporter since 2016. I cannot think of any other issue where I would not back him. His approach to Canada is the one area he has been wrong.  Unless Trump did not want an ally and was serious about annexation he's made Canadians' lives, already bordering on miserable, far worse. And I don't think he's serious about annexing Canada. 

I still back Trump. I simply think his approach here has been horribly wrong.

I'm less optimistic about this

In Canada, there's a looming post-Trudeau election. But I'm less optimistic that it will happen before the October deadline. The socialist NDP party leader Jagmeet Singh has indicated he would continue to support the Liberal party's new leader (likely Justin Trudeau policy clone, Mark Carney). Why? He has his pension locked in now. Well, his party has collapsed in the polls as a Liberal alternative now that the party has ditched Trudeau and someone else is taking his place (once again, likely Justin Trudeau policy clone, Mark Carney). He won't be so eager to tank his party or his legacy given that circumstance. And given that, it's looks like they'll just run out the clock.  The irony of that, is that it's more likely to help the Liberal party than the NDP.

Nevertheless, there are those who think the election will be in April.  I'm less optimistic than this:

Germany shifting right

The question is, how far?  Generally a good news election though.

Canada needs an election

Alberta premier Danielle Smith is not the only person thinking this way:

The George Clooney vs. Obama saga

Look, this is not a loss attributable to George Clooney.  This massive defeat belongs entirely to the Democrat elite. They just don't want to shoulder any of the blame because they're so special. But seeing this internal rancor spill out into the public forum is good for the country one way or another; either the Democrats fix themselves and try to be normal again or they stick their heads in the sand, double down and become completely unelectable. Either way the country wins.

Gen X Revenge

As a Gen X member, I get this:

It's election day. Vote!

I too am not an American (unfortunately), but supporting Trump is not just an American imperative, it's a matter for a better world.  Making America great helps it's allies. It hinders the enemies of liberty and justice.  From the outside I can say America is not perfect, but it's a lot closer than anything else the world has seen (Jesus aside). So it is imperative that Americans vote to reclaim what the Constitution intended and not let it continue to be deliberately eroded away by those who seek to change America's destiny to socialism, from those who seek to  profit from it's downfall, from those who have been told lies about America and now have fused them into their distorted worldview. An imperfect America walking in the right direction is better than an imperfect America sprinting in the wrong direction. Every single day.

Please vote Trump, while you still have the opportunity to tell your children you did not allow America to succumb to the tyranny of the state. America's time may come in some distant future, but it must not be this day, and for the reason of apathy.

By the way, there are a hundred reasons to vote for Trump. But when you are doing so, please remember, vote Republican for senate, for congress, for any other office or proposition that is on your ballot.

As an enthusiast of America, as a believer in America I implore you, please go vote Trump today if you have not already done so.

My swing state view as of Oct 22

This morning I read the TIPP national tracking poll that showed over the weekend the race was tightening. It had this to say:

Trump's weekend momentum has fizzled out, and Harris and Trump are locked in a tight contest. Despite Trump's earlier momentum, the TIPP tracking poll shows former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tied at 48%.

My first thought was okay it's a tracking poll, there is a daily fluctuation that shouldn't be taken as gospel. So I decided to look further, and I discovered two things.  Firstly, despite the rounding, overall the details show Trump with a fractional lead at 48% and Harris somewhere around 47.7%. That is still a Trump lead, however small.  The second thing I discovered was that within their tracking poll, Trump did indeed drop from 49% to 48% on the rolling score while Harris gained from 47% to just under the 48% mark. That could be anything from a weekend Democrat response bias to real movement.  It's hard to tell.  

Keep in mind this is a national poll. If Trump is even in a national poll, he is in a strong position to win the national total vote count, which is of course, merely bragging rights. Perhaps it's a little more consequential this time around but that's a discussion for another time. What's interesting is that it matches a couple of my updated swing state results.  What really matters is the swing state polls.

Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics battleground state polling average (which are not the gold standard and why I try to average the polls a bit differently than RCP does) we see the following:

• Pennsylvania - Trump +0.8%
• North Carolina -  Trump +0.5%
• Georgia - Trump +2.5%
• Arizona - Trump +1.8%
• Wisconsin - Trump +0.4%
• Michigan - Trump +1.2%
• Nevada - Trump +0.7%

Here's what I am seeing as of this morning:

How does that compare to my previous snapshot? 

In my view, Trump has improved modestly in the sunbelt states of Arizona and Georgia (Nevada is statistically unchanged). In North Carolina and Pennsylvania there were no new polls so obviously, unchanged. In Wisconsin, Trump's lead has shrunk, perhaps mirroring the national TIPP findings.

As the polls begin to move in Trump's direction, the difference between my results and the RCP average has tightened. In Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina, our differences are negligible. In Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania I am seeing a much better Trump result than RCP and conversely, I am seeing a worse result for Trump in Nevada than RCP.

If my view is correct, Trump has a lead pretty much outside the margin of error cheating in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Those two states would bring his Electoral College total to 254 of the 270 needed to win. If Trump wins Michigan (his next highest lead) it would put him at 269. Arizona would put him over the top, being Trump's next highest lead over Michigan.  At just under 2% in the latter two states, Trump is likely to win, but they are not at a comfort level just yet.  With 13 days to go, I'm expecting one of two things; either a nailbiter finish with a Harris two-days-later, come from behind suspicious victory, or a Trump blowout win.

Do Not Vote For This

My personal exhortation to American voters, do not vote for this:

UPDATE: Well, that got removed.  Not surprised.

Is RFK tanking his own candidacy?

RFK, making some weird statements.  Is he handing his voters to Trump on purpose or is he just this inept?

Quote of the day

This very apt quote comes from Matt Vespa at Townhall:

...it all circles back to the Electoral College, and that’s breaking for the GOP. We live in a country where the system in which we elect a new president rewards candidates with geographic diversity—that’s Trump, whose coalition is very efficiently dispersed, especially in areas where elections are decided. Harris is an inner-city and coastal, snobby elites kind of gal. That’s not representative of the country at all.

“I know people don’t like to talk about that [the Electoral College], because there’s nothing that Democrats can do about it. But the election is likely to be close, and it’s a big disadvantage when the ties go to Republicans,” added Silver.

That doesn’t bode well for Harris’ army of childless cat ladies. Yet, as the Democrats sprint to define Harris, the Republicans need to regroup just as quickly because the lack of messaging in attacking her will come back to bite us. Her record alone is enough to crank out multiple attack lines and ads, and we should focus on that exclusively instead of doubting her racial background and calling her a DEI hire. Those two things will only animate the liberal base who we need to depress and make hopeless again.