Canadian Election Disaster Trilogy

This is not the total disaster I had feared. Liberal, World Economic Forum golden boy Mark Carney was parachuted in to save the Liberal Party of Canada from the disaster known as Justin Trudeau. Notice he wasn't parachuted in to save Canada, but to save the Liberal Party. Pick your theatrical villain, this guy is it: 

Yep, that's him with the associate of you-know-who.

Sadly, Canada is full of uninformed people (due largely to our lock-step Leftist media), weak-willed cowards with a knee-jerk reaction to president Trump's tariffs.  

Going into the election, the Conservative party had a somewhat charismatic (in an understated way) leader unafraid to take on the media, unafraid to talk common sense. He was winning so much support, it looked possible that the Liberal party could be actually wiped out entirely. Less than four months ago, Conservatives were a certainty. Meanwhile the Liberals had historically unpopular Justin Trudeau. A global laughing stock of a leader.  After a decade people tend to tire of the incumbents, that's true anywhere not just Canada. 

There was a lot that went wrong with Canada's populist revival, and it was a perfect storm of sh@% that resulted in a Liberal 4th consecutive term, albeit barely. What happened? Three things mainly.

One - Too soon, too personal

Well the first problem was the Conservative party's strategy worked too well. Once Pierre Poilievre was elected leader of the party the strategy to demonize Justin Trudeau starting years before the election date worked. It worked so well, that along with Justin Trudeau's own contribution of ineptitude and horrible policies,  the Liberals approval ratings were near flatline. The problem though was twofold. Firstly they started way too early. The other problem; it was too Trudeau-centric. The Conservative popularity soared and Trudeau's waned abysmally as he deserved. But because this happened a year before the mandated latest election date, and because it was so closely tied to Trudeau, the Liberal party was able to jettison Trudeau and solve both problems at once.  A 'fresh' 'new' face cleared punted the problem for the Liberals. 

True, nobody wanted Trudeau, not even liberal voters. But he was no longer on the ballot. The Conservatives were a victim of their own early success. Liberals had time to present themselves, along with a compliant media as revitalized and different.  It's not true, as has often been pointed out, but it became the perception. Liberal voters flocked back to Liberal support, abandoning the other parties (mostly the NDP) they had drifted towards.

 

Two - I have to say it; Donald Trump

At one point probably 60% of conservative voters in Canada were very much pro-Trump for America. President Trump coming in and going after Trudeau with tariffs was a real miscalculation. Canadians didn't see it as an attack on the Trudeau they for the most part detested. They saw it as an attack on Canada. We've been a loyal friend to the United States for over a century. This about face made no sense. There are trade issues on both sides for sure, but we're not China.

Trump created a climate of fear in Canada that permeated the election cycle. It was now about Canadian sovereignty. That gave Pierre Poilievre a no-win hand to play. Endorse Trump and seem anti-Canadian to most of the country or talk tough and say Canada First. He had to chose the latter or get decimated in the election. But choosing the latter meant that he was just like the Liberals. This may have also been a strategic mistake. There was probably a third path; a path of reconciliation with America.  A path of let's address the concerns of both countries. But it would have taken an enormous campaign to get that message through and per point one; the Conservatives went through a lot of budget before the election even got started and probably couldn't muster the resources to carry that off.

President Trump inserted himself into a Canadian election in a way that hurt Conservatives' election chances. It may have been a deliberately gamble to help the Conservatives but if so, it failed. Badly. While addressing trade grievances and fentanyl issues are certainly important and admirable, this was ill-timed and will end up hurting working class and middle class Canadians who are suffering badly already thanks to their Liberal overlords. I know, I am one of them. The Canadian economy for ordinary Canadians is on the ropes. This could spell the death of Canadian middle class. 

Three - Jagmeet Singh

The clown of a leader for the New Democratic Party (socialists), Jagmeet Singh was so self-serving that for years he propped up Justin Trudeau, holding on as long as he thought was possible. If he had had any backbone, Canada could have held an election any time over the last two years. Didn't happen. He kept Trudeau in power long enough to give the Liberals time for an alternative. Singh earned himself enough tenure for a lucrative lifetime government but he lost his own seat in parliament in the election as a result. He decimated his own party to a rump in parliament with virtually no power anymore. And it cost Canada. If he'd been less a Trudeau lacky Canada would have had a conservative Prime Minister and his NDP party would have been better off too. His selfish and progressive ambitions have made Canada a country on life support.

There's your trilogy of reasons for the disaster. There's a trilogy of disastrous outcomes for Canada, we are stuck with more World Economic Forum leftist leadership. We have a squandered opportunity for conservative populism and for a reinvigorated relationship with the United States

Not all is lost

I started by saying this was not the complete disaster it could have been. It's true.  The Liberals do not have a majority government in parliament. Support from the ruined NDP party won't be enough to keep them in power now. They are subject to a non-confidence motion and a snap election at any time. The conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois (who don't like the Conservatives but detest the Liberals) will likely see to it that the government lasts 18 months or less. My gut says 9 - 12 months. People will have time to see Carney is every bit the villain that Justin Trudeau was. A conservative majority is still a looming possibility, perhaps merely delayed.

I'm less optimistic about this

In Canada, there's a looming post-Trudeau election. But I'm less optimistic that it will happen before the October deadline. The socialist NDP party leader Jagmeet Singh has indicated he would continue to support the Liberal party's new leader (likely Justin Trudeau policy clone, Mark Carney). Why? He has his pension locked in now. Well, his party has collapsed in the polls as a Liberal alternative now that the party has ditched Trudeau and someone else is taking his place (once again, likely Justin Trudeau policy clone, Mark Carney). He won't be so eager to tank his party or his legacy given that circumstance. And given that, it's looks like they'll just run out the clock.  The irony of that, is that it's more likely to help the Liberal party than the NDP.

Nevertheless, there are those who think the election will be in April.  I'm less optimistic than this:

Meanwhile in Canada, Trudeau continues to crumble

Justin Trudeau's Deputy Prime Minister quit yesterday. That's like a Vice President resigning. It's a big blow that Trudeau probably (and hopefully won't acknowledge and continue to try to cling to power), despite the fact that he is dramatically despised in Canada (his popular support in polls is in the 20% range).

Chrystia Freeland is no selfless angel.  She's long been rumored to be Trudeau's successor and this move seems to be nothing more than kicking Trudeau when he's down to hasten his downfall so she can step in.  This situation is akin to a situation where Kamala Harris actively participated in Let's Go Brandon's ouster. In more ways than one; Freeland is no more popular than Trudeau.  She might do better in an election than plummeting Trudeau but not a lot better; again akin to Kamala Harris. 

His minority coalition partner Jagmeet Singh (NDP party leader), who infamously tore up their governing agreement a couple of months ago, but continued to support Trudeau, also as finally had enough, saying that Trudeau has to resign.  Of course he's again being disingenuous; in February he becomes vetted for a generous lifetime courtesy of Canadian taxpayers. Cynics Realists have argued that everything Singh does is for optics and he is entirely self-serving.  He will help force an 'early' election, but not until he's garnered that pension:

This man is holding Canada hostage to his pension. Horrible.

Sadly, Trudeau isn't gone just yet

Yesterday the far left New Democrat Party's (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh ripped up his deal with Justin Trudeau's far left Liberal party.  The NDP formed a coalition with Trudeau to make his minority government a majority due to the alliance, making for a guaranteed 5 year election cycle. That ended yesterday, as Singh finally realized that Trudeau was slow walking much of the NDPs demands, and 'siding with the corporate interests instead of workers'.

Sadly, that doesn't end Trudeau's unholy reign on Canadian government. Parliament is not in session, and in order to force an early election in a minority government, a motion of non-confidence must be voted on in parliament. Parliament doesn't reconvene until mid September (after a ridiculous 2 month summer recess.  Parliament sits for about 145 day per year as if it was grade school. Yeah).

Even more sadly, the problem doesn't end there. Just because the NDP has no deal with the Liberal party, doesn't mean they will immediately support a non-confidence motion. In fact Singh has already stated that he will support or refuse to support Liberal legislation on a case by case basis. 

Jagmeet Singh is trying to have his cake and eat it too. As Justin Trudeau's popular approval has tanked over the last two years, people had called on Singh to tear up the deal propping up the Liberals, but he refused to do so - even after several Liberal members of parliament had questioned Trudeau's continued party leadership. The pressure has only intensified on Singh to force an election. He finally relented.

It was certainly a surprise to many, but it was an obvious move. Canada's economy is currently in far worse shape than America's. Singh refusing to let Canadians get into life rafts and instead forcing the country to cling to the sinking ship Trudeau, was not a tenable position.  Even former NDP leaders have questioned his motivation. Some have even speculated that the reason for his hesitancy has been that as of February 2025, he has enough tenure to qualify for a ridiculously rich government pension.

That aside, Singh is clearly trying to thread the needle - being seen not as a Trudeau lackey and sticking up for voters, but also keeping an eye on the polls.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative party has a massive poll lead and it has been sticking for quite some time. If an election were held today it would result in a Conservative landslide. Trudeau would end up with the Liberals in third place, and Singh's NDP would end up in fourth.  Yes, it's that good for us and that bad for them. Singh is now in a position to see if his poll numbers rise as a result of his phony sudden indignation. He can try to wait for the most opportune time relative to polling, to join or create a non-confidence motion to topple the Trudeau Liberals. He doesn't need to rush.  And with that pension issue out there, he certainly has incentive to not rush before February.

That does become a double-edged sword.  If he's seen to vote for an election in any way that puts him past his February-eligible rich government pension, people we see him as a self-serving scumbag. Rightly so. But maybe he is one and he doesn't care about popular opinion.   There were times in the past had he helped force an election, the far left NDP would have fared much better than they are doing right now.

It could also be the case that this is all window dressing.  He may want people to believe he's declared independence from the coalition government but will still ride it out until October 2025, when an election must be called regardless. The result for Canadians, is that for some period that remains to be determined, we are stuck with Justin Trudeau. Happily the maximum amount possible is now only 13 months.