Is Nevada now a red state?

I like optimism. But I also don't like to count my chickens before they hatch.  While this is good news, to claim Nevada is now a red state, may be a bit premature. I hope he's right longer term:

RNC actually doing stuff

Uh oh (part 1)

Nevada vote tampering is real, and current:

Another election projection analysis

Not mine, this is from Election Projection Official:

Governor Series: NV - Joe Lombardo

 This is a tight race, but Joe Lombardo is the right guy for Nevada.

Senate Series: NV - Adam Laxalt

 Trust your eyes Nevada:

Evidence of Red Wave?

 Is this evidence or an outlier poll? Nevada turning red is a big deal.

Nevada Senate:

Adam Laxalt (R) 45% (+2)

Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 43%

.

Nevada Governor:

Joe Lombardo (R) 45% (+3)

Steve Sisolak (D-inc) 42%

.@OHPredictive/@TheNVIndy, 741 LV, 9/20-29 pic.twitter.com/BkAUT3xA8t

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 2, 2022

I'm always skeptical of polling without more information so I'm very cautiously optimistic given this news, but optimisitic nonetheless. 

They are covering their tracks on voter fraud, except Crowder's catching them

 The mystery deepens:

Hey Georgia, when you run out of ballots, start counting napkins

...and empty cereal boxes.  Oh, and change your state motto to "Cheat To Win".  I thought Georgia was a state where people gave a crap. Turns out it only takes enough of them to crap on democracy to wipe out a country.  Good for you.

Pennsylvania you're not exempt either.  Bill Burr was 100% as right about Philadelphia.

Michigan, well we didn't really expect anything out of you anyway. You never fail to disappoint until you do it so much it becomes the expectation.

Wisconsin, now that's a real disappointment.  I'm not gonna lie, I had hopes for you.

Arizona makes no sense anymore and Nevada, I hope Las Vegas gets swallowed up by the desert.  Been there once, recently in fact, had a great time.  Guess what - never going back again. Enjoy the Raiders until they move back to Oakland and you are left with a giant empty stadium.

Okay, that felt good.  Back to normal.

Libertarians shoot themselves in the foot

I know I just said it's not time to Wednesday morning quarterback in my previous post, but here's an FYI. If Jo Jorgensen had not run in Nevada, and most of her 11,000+ votes so far ended up going to president Trump, he would be winning that state. If you are a Nevada libertarian, you may have handed your antithesis candidate - the socialist-leaning corruptocrat Biden, the presidency.  So enjoy that knowledge.

Democrat Debate Free For All on Bloomberg

We know that his opponents are going to go after Democratic candidate Mike Bloomberg at the upcoming debate in Nevada.  It's his first debate in a long time, and he does pose an existential threat to all of their chances for the nomination.  If he wants to win, he should be prepared for an onslaught.  Everyone else in that debate has something to prove - either their own ability to withstand an advertising blitz and a faltering campaign of their own (Biden), or their ability to take on a billionaire and ultimately president Trump (e.g. Warren), or the fact that he represents the antithesis of the ideology of the future of the party (Sanders) or even just the viability of their continued campaigns (Buttigieg or Klobuchar  -the former seems oblivious and almost seems to be embracing Bloomberg, the latter too, seems resigned to acceptance).

I expect that save for the latter two, who oddly may have pre-conceded to Bloomberg and are busy vying for a VP slot, there will be a battle for a change from the previous love-in debates.  But what will be the fallout?

Does Bloomberg effectively acquit himself of all of the recent charges of racism and sexism?  Does he falter?  Does it even matter if he has become the perceived first choice thanks to his ad blitz?  This is all hard to predict.  But my suspicion is that this will not be a game changer for everyone.  But I do think it will winnow the field. Anyone who does not go after Bloomberg will become irrelevant and start to fall in the polling in the coming weeks.  Warren has signaled her intent so Sanders has to outdo her and so too does Biden.  The question is who will be the most effective.  

I think the result of this debate is that you will see Buttigieg and Klobuchar will start to fade.  Here are the IFs:

-If Bloomberg looks like he handles it all well, he will knock Biden into an also-ran.  If he does not, Biden may see a resurgence (unless Buttigieg actually does go after Bloomberg and does so better than Biden)

-If Warren does a better job than Sanders in attacking Bloomberg she will experience a mini-revival and continue to pull votes from Sanders.  If not then she will fade as well and it will allow Sanders to become one of the 2 people in what seems to be headed towards a two-person race.

Midterms Matter: In Nevada 3rd District, please support Danny Tarkanian

Nevada has had substantial early voting already, but the 3rd district race is especially tight.  Republican Danny Tarkanian trails by two in an October poll that has a margin of error of 7.6%.   The margin of error is high because the sample size is small.   This is an exceptionally important race nationally, not just for this district.

There are a few reasons why the Democrat in this race must not win.  Firstly there's honesty and accountability:

And then there's this weirdness:

Over a dozen Democrat House candidates campaigning for election this fall are doing so with the public endorsements and financial backing of a population control group that wants to punish families for having more than two children.

That's absolutely cringe-worthy.  Thankfully there is someone in the race worth voting for, and that's Danny Tarkanian.  He's in favor of common sense fundamentals, that keep money in the pockets of hard working Nevadans.

Danny Tarkanian is looking out for Nevadans. Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In Nevada's 4th District, please support Cresent Hardy

In 2014 Cresent Hardy beat incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford, to win the seat in congress for Nevada's 4th district.  This year the roles are changed around completely.  Cresent Hardy who lost the seat in 2016, is being challenged by Steven Horsford. 

Despite the Democrats' registration in the district, there's a reason Horsford lost to Cresent Hardy:

Those issues have not gone away.  They were simply overshadowed by more recent Democrat corruption.

Cresent Hardy on the other hand , understands what makes for a vibrant local economy.

As a small business owner, Cresent knows what it takes to create jobs, make a payroll, and meet a budget. He knows first-hand that a low-tax environment that encourages business growth and expansion is critical to creating the new, high-paying jobs that bring economic prosperity to our communities. He also understands the negative effect that overly burdensome government regulations can have on job growth.

Cresent’s continued commitment to community is reflected in his vast public service. Serving in the United States Congress from 2015 – 2017, Cresent made constituent service his priority.

Cresent Hardy trails by 2 points in a race with an 8 point margin of error.  He could be leading, he could be behind by 10 points.  But this is a race that Cresent Hardy deserves to win.  His opponent is once again in it for his own material well-being.

To win Cresent Hardy needs your support.  Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote. 

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: For Nevada Senate, please support Dean Heller

Current polling puts Dean Heller's liberal Democrat and frequently, ethically flawed, false claim purveying challenger ahead of the incumbent Senator.  When you have a choice between a true homegrown Nevada-first senator and this, the choice should be obvious - common sense or this:

Despite that she holds a narrow lead over Dean Heller and she has been raising and spending more money than him.  In order to get elected she has resorted in the past to having been as evasive as possible.  Obfuscation is not a desirable quality in a politician and electing that sort will definitely lead to buyer's remorse in voters.

Dean Heller, meanwhile has stood up for common sense;

Since coming to the U.S. Senate, Dean Heller has passed more than 100 different pieces of legislation into law including his proposals to protect Nevada’s 300,000 military veterans, support small businesses, boost the state’s tourism economy, and fight vile crimes such as human trafficking.

Senator Heller needs your support in this critical election.  Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website.  And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

2018 midterms - support Dean Heller

Nevada voters need to re-elect Dean Heller to the senate.

Nevada GOP caucus predictions

Predicting that Trump is going to win in Nevada is not exciting given recent polling. Who comes in second or third also isn't all that big a deal.  What I'm going to focus on is who is going to drop out after tonight.

Ben Carson.  Just a hunch.  But he can now say he lasted longer than Jeb Bush. 

And that's it.  Even though he should drop out to benefit the establishment and also because his chances of winning are approaching zero, Kasich is going to stay in for at least another week.  It's pointless for him to continue, but I don't believe he's going away.  For better or worse, Trump is benefiting from a split field.  Until Ted Cruz drops out, the eventual departure of  candidates will benefit Rubio first, and Cruz second.  

The longer this carries on, the more likely it is that Trump will be the nominee.

UPDATED: Nevada Cattle Battle

At first glance, this cattle battle doesn't seem to be the biggest or most important story in the news right now.  But looks can be deceiving.  Having your cattle seized might be seen as a liberty issue.  I don't think it's reached that level of criticality just yet, but it is a story worth keeping an eye on - even though the cattle may now have been released.

One question - where is Nevada senator Harry Reid on this issue? Probably working out a way to blame Republicans.

UPDATE (15/04/14): Harry Reid, who had taken a low profile on this issue, has chimed in, saying "It's not over".

Predicting the Election Outcome

This is really a weird year in terms of convergence of views on the outcome of the presidential election.  Polls are all over the place - from the differences between sample skews to the differences between the state polls and national polls, the lack of consistency points to a wide range of potential outcomes.  I've never looked at an election with as much optimism and trepidation at the same time.

Quick stuff worth noting

A few quick highlights in the news today, since I won't be posting again.  Here are a few items to watch.

Nevada caucus discrimination?

But near the table where participants were to sign an affidavit stating under penalty of perjury that their religious beliefs precluded their ability to vote during regular caucus hours, a cluster of voters who did not meet that requirement slowed the line as they were turned away, one by one. Most had come at the urging of the Ron Paul campaign, which had placed calls to its supporters informing them of the "second chance" to vote Saturday night.

"I received probably 10 phone calls today saying if you didn't make it this morning to your caucus, you can come down here - 30 minutes away from my home - and they would let you vote, get a second chance at it," said 23-year-old Henderson resident Michael DiCicco, a Paul supporter who said he was not aware the late caucus was reserved solely for those who practice certain religions. "It's discrimination."

Romney admits mistake on anti-poor comment.  No word on an apology for Romney-care.

“I misspoke,” Romney said Thursday in an interview aired on KSNV, a CNN affiliate in Las Vegas. “When you do I don’t know how many thousands of interviews, now and then you may get it wrong, and I misspoke.”

Romney made the original comment in an interview with CNN on Wednesday morning, in which he said he was not "concerned about the very poor" because there is a safety net in place for them—but added, "if there are holes in it, I will work to repair that."

Egypt's version of the Arab Spring goes horribly awry. More stuff Obama won't claim credit for now.

The son of Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is among 19 Americans being referred to criminal trial for allegedly receiving foreign funds illegally and being involved in banned activity in Egypt, several news agencies reported Sunday. In all, Egyptian officials say 44 non-governmental organization workers will be put before the court after investigating judges claimed they had reason to try the democracy and rights workers.

In case you are living in an area with an unusually warm winter like me, don't get all global-warming-hysteria on everybody again. It's not like that.

Bitterly cold weather sweeping across Europe claimed more victims on Sunday and brought widespread disruption to transport services, with warnings that the chilling temperatures would remain into next week. 

At least 200 people have lost their lives as freezing weather sweeps across the continent westwards, while airports in Britain and France saw disruptions from new snow.

No, Gingrich isn't dropping out

Newt Gingrich has a press conference lined up for later tonight after the Nevada caucuses have probably wrapped up.  Speculation is circling that maybe he's dropping out.  I don't think so.

Instead of the traditional election night party, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will hold a press conference after the Nevada Caucus on Saturday, raising new speculation about his future in the race.

An e-mail sent to reporters on Saturday morning set the Las Vegas press conference for 11 p.m. to midnight Eastern time. It will be held at the Venetian, a hotel run by Sheldon Adelson, who has donated millions of dollars to the pro-Gingrich super PAC Winning Our Future.