Is Iowa about to get an upgrade?

2026, a new senator for Iowa? Apparently so.

Digesting Iowa Republican caucus results

The big surprise of the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses was not the margin of Trump's victory or that he won massively, it was that Ron DeSantis came in second.  Pollsters were pointing to a Nikki Haley second place finish. She came third, despite the polls indicating she would run second, and despite the establishment push for her. Vivek Ramaswamy ran fourth as expected, but he did so in a classy way, and bowed out afterward the results were clear, quickly throwing his endorsement behind president Trump.

Most of Vivek's support will likely flow to Trump, though truthfully he really needs no help. It should allow him to run up the score, and it's smart that it comes pre New Hampshire. Trump is leading Nikki Haley there by roughly 14 points according RCP. Vivek's 5 points in that state could allow Trump some additional buffer.

President Trump was uncharacteristically magnanimous in victory, complimenting his primary rivals.  It's of course much easier to be gracious when you have an almost certain lock on the nomination. But that probably helps his candidacy.  His post caucus speech sounded very much like someone wanting the country to come together. It certainly will help him when he wraps up the nomination, to bring the Republican party together. And it will definitely help him in the general election, since the Democrats and media are prepared only for the belligerent version of Trump. It will make Let's Go Brandon look all the more bitter by comparison. At least it will help until the left catches on.  Luckily they don't tend to catch on quickly. It's a smart strategy for Trump.

Ron DeSantis, by coming second, will remain in the race. Even if he knows he cannot win (which may or may not be the actual case), he cannot drop out after a surprise second place finish when he was expected to come third.  It looks bad for his 2028 run if he folds so quickly. DeSantis staying in the race hurts Haley more than Trump. The anti-Trump vote split into two candidates helps Trump possibly even more than a Trump blowout in Iowa. If Trump gets a double digit lead in New Hampshire, going into South Carolina he is expected to blow out everyone again, it could be over that early. That's optimistic but the longer DeSantis stays in the race, the worse the chance become for Nikki Haley, the establishment uni-party darling. 

Do all 6 of these RINOs need to go?

First, the situation, via Red Eagle Politics, 6 Republicans In Name Only that could lose their primaries in the run-up to the 2022 midterm elections.

RINOs are not your friend.  But in some liberal leaning states, they are better than the alternative.

Idaho: This is a Republican state.  Anyone would be better than crappy Mike Crapo.  Yes, he should be primaried.  Any more solid Republican who wins, will win the state.

Utah: As he points out in the video Mike Lee is going to be hard to defeat in the primary.  But I think challenging him would force him to move back to the right, which is a good thing.  There's no harm in the attempt therefore.

South Dakota: John Thune refused to support a challenge of the 2020 election results.  That doesn't make him a RINO necessarily but I would not be sad to see him go.  Since the relatively solid governor of the state is not inclined to run for the senate, the question is whether there will be a solid challenger.

Alaska: Murkowski is possibly the worst turncoat in the GOP. She must be primaried.  Alaska is a solid Republican state.  As long as the challenger is of a decent quality, Murkowski can be defeated and the state will remain Republican red.  Sarah Palin is a good possibility as a candidate.  I'm not sure she wants to run though.  But it doesn't need to be her. I think she'd have the best shot at winning it, but another solid candidate could win too.

Oklahoma: Langford is an establishment Republican. Oklahoma will elect it's Republican nominee, it's a deep red state. But it does not need this guy representing them.  He's a RINO.

Arkansas: John Boozman is not terrible but he's not good either and he's not what Republicans need right now.  Republicans need fighters, so primarying him is not a bad thing.  Besides, right now Jan Morgan looks like an appealing alternative.

Iowa: Grassley is not my favorite Republican but the main reason he needs to be replaced is his age.  Being primaried would insert some new blood.  Being primaried by his grandson would be worth the attention it would get.

Looking at the map, these are mostly deep red states.  The only one I would be worried about having a more conservative candidate is Arkansas, but even there I'd be willing to chance it if I were a patriotic American.  

Mark Dice, still good and why Biden is in Iowa

 Mark Dice doesn't need my repost of his latest video, but he's got it anyway.

I do still expect an October surprise from Democrats but I think it's too little, too late to make a difference.  Election Day is Tuesday and I think the Democrats believe it's done.  

Why is Joe Biden in Iowa today?  He's not going to win Iowa. I think he's trying to help the Democrats' chances in the senate and trying to help upset Republican incumbent Joni Ernst.  If he felt like he was going to win the election, he would be in a more swingy, swing state.  Not Iowa.

Democratic Iowa Caucus: We'll get back to you

The Democrats run a caucus like they run a state or country - come up with grand ideas for change, don't vet them, make the changes and then watch the fallout as it fails miserably.

Here's a taste of how bad it was:

Currently there are no official results despite a few declarations of victory by candidates.

Midterms Matter: In Iowa's 2nd District please support Chris Peters

This might be a bit of a long shot but I am hoping that voters in Iowa's 2nd district see what conservative policies have meant to the state.  President Trump carried the district in 2016 even though former president Obama carried it in 2014.  Nevertheless in the only poll in the district back in early September, incumbent Democrat Dave Loebsack had a 24 point lead.  That seems artificially high, especially with 28% of responders undecided.

Chris Peters seems right for the state; he has common sense, fresh ideas, and a desire to actually make a difference.

Consider voting for him. Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: For Iowa District 3, please support David Young for Congress

In early September there was a poll that had Republican David Young up by 16 points on his Democratic challenger in the race for Iowa's 3rd congressional district.  Then in late September a NYT poll had his opponent up by 1 point.  I know what you are thinking: "The New York Times ? Meh."  But the more recent New York Times poll was of likely voters whereas the earlier poll was of all registered voters (which is far less predictive) and it was of a much smaller sample size.

So this is starting to look like it's going to be a close race.  This is race that really matters, especially since David Young understands and is working hard for Iowans.

As a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, David works hard for the people of Iowa’s Third Congressional District. David’s conservative principles are built upon the same foundation on which he was raised: hard work, honesty, family, and faith. It’s those principles that drive David every day.

Add in his pragmatism and you have a candidate worth getting behind.  Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website.  And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: For Iowa District 1, please support Rod Blum for Congress

Congressman Rod Blum is in a tight race to represent the first district in Iowa. He believes in the American Dream and wants to do his part to restore it for the next generation of the country.  He has experience in running a business successfully and can help Washington apply that common sense to running the government.  His views on agriculture, social security, the economy and cleaning up Congress are in line with mainstream America.  There's no reason his race should be so close.

He needs voters to recognize his values and his own efforts in Congress and step up to support him in supporting America.

So please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website.  And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

My Iowa predictions: Good, Bad and Ugly

Yesterday I hastily added my predictions to the outcome of the Iowa caucuses. Time for a brief analysis of my efforts. Results in terms of vote percentages and delegate count that I'm basing my post analysis on, can be found here.

For Trump, as goes Iowa, so may too go the nation

Donald Trump is polling well in Iowa, and as pointed out by Allahpundit at HotAir, new GOP registrations in Iowa are up quite a bit, and they don't appear to be typical Republican voters.  Conversely, Allahpundit points out that Trump's ground game in Iowa, is not looking so great.

That is the current GOP race in a microcosm. Donald Trump is winning the publicity war, and he's attracting non-traditional Republican voters, possibly faster than he's offending traditional ones.  He's also winning a non-traditional campaign battle and possibly losing, heavily in a traditional one.  GOTV (get out the vote) efforts are a super critical part of a winning strategy.  It's true in primaries but especially true in caucus states.  And Iowa being the opening one, merits special attention.

This speaks more to what a winning strategy might be than the merits of the individual candidates.  If Trump's strategy works in Iowa, he could be impossible to beat.  But if he comes in anywhere but first, even a strong second, leaves him particularly vulnerable.

If I'm Ted Cruz, or any other candidate, I can speak to Trump's lack of planning, lack of organization and lack of foresight to even tend to a ground game, as a strong indicator that Trump's leadership skills are not what he claims they are.  I would argue he's all sizzle and no steak.  His campaign is about his personality and not his actual ability to plan and organize - and that's because, apparently he can't.

So, as Iowa goes for Trump, so may too go the nation.

The problem with GOP primary voters is...

...that they just love the front runners from last time around.  How else do you explain Mitt Romney leading the Iowa straw poll? The good news is he's ahead of Jeb Bush.  The other bad news?  Jeb Bush is in second place.  

Coming soon?  Clash of the Establishment Titans.

Joni Ernst = Iowa

Brayley panics and resorts to the name Koch Brothers, but Joni Ernst proves she is there for Iowans.  Koch Brothers is like a Pavlovian bell to knee-jerk liberals and I guess Brayley figures throwing it out there will earn him a few votes.  Cheap. But Ernst responded with class.

Iowa, earnest for Ernst

Joni Ernst needs your support.

Iowa: Joni Ernst

Iowa is a close race and Joni Ernst is a great candidate and her opponent is not.  Please support her candidacy.

Iowa: Vote Joni Ernst

The Republican war on women continues with yet another woman candidate.  Wait, what now?

Joni Ernst is one of the most interesting candidates in this year's senate field across all of the states up for election. She deserves Iowa's support.

Here's what she supports. No war on women.  No war on seniors.  No war on children.  She simply supports common sense.

Here's what you can do to help.

Predicting the Election Outcome

This is really a weird year in terms of convergence of views on the outcome of the presidential election.  Polls are all over the place - from the differences between sample skews to the differences between the state polls and national polls, the lack of consistency points to a wide range of potential outcomes.  I've never looked at an election with as much optimism and trepidation at the same time.

It was by all accounts, a squeaker

The GOP caucuses in Iowa yesterday were unbelievably close.  Romney won with 30,015 votes (24.6%) and Rick Santorum came in second, a mere 8 vote back, with 30,007 (24.5%).  Ron Paul came in third with 26,219 (21.4%) and Newt Gingrich was fourth with 16,251 (13.3%).  Everything pretty much went according to expectations as far as who the top four were, although the exact positions and the closeness of the top two were a surprise - to me at least. I thought Santorum had enough momentum to overtake both Paul and Romney, even though he was still well behind the two in the polling averages at RCP in the last week. Boy was I close - off by 8, or rather 9, votes.  I also thought Ron Paul would drop off further than he did and would place fourth behind Gingrich, who I thought would perform a few percentage points better than he did (I was thinking 15% to 16%).

Part 1 - GOP primaries – after Iowa, what next?

Spoilers alert.

The Iowa primary race is a watershed moment for the GOP presidential race. Right now the possible paths, even knowing the likely outcomes of the Iowa caucuses are too numerous to contemplate. But if we winnow it down to a number of possible first stage results, some of the likely consequences and next steps can be extrapolated.

The likely outcomes of Iowa based on polling are possible to narrow down. The polling could result in a number of different Iowa winners, despite the decidedly large number of undecided Iowans. To simplify, let’s narrow the field into two buckets – Top 4 finishers, and Also-rans. Perhaps a bit harsh, but this is politics, so there’s no need to couch the wording in niceties.

The march is on

The day after tomorrow the Iowa caucus kicks off the primary season for the 2012 presidential election.  It's the start of an almost year long march towards the election.  Less important than the implications of that march are the predictions of who might eventually win.  While I intend to look at the overall implications of the race this month, let's start with something less meaningful, since it's less effort on a January 1st morning.

Dec 28th Gingrich Iowa townhall - very solid

I'd love to embed the video, but alas, C-SPAN doesn't allow much embedding.  Nevertheless, Newt Gingrich held a town hall meting with Iowa voters at Southbridge Mall in Mason City, Iowa. 

Go here to check it out, it's a solid Gingrich performance.  Watch it and I defy you to find anything he said that wasn't conservative, or a solid performance.