Pleasant thought for the day

Jeb Bush has dropped out of the running as a candidate for president.  Now if we could only get Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders to do the same...

Chris Christie torpedo theory

Do you think it's possible that Chris Christie took his shot at Marco Rubio in the last New Hampshire debate, knowing that if he could successfully torpedo him it would make him a prime candidate as the #2 on the ticket for someone else who is polling better and isn't going to drop out of the race this week? Indications are that Christie is about to drop out

I'm just speculating.  I know a lot of people are thinking that other candidate might be Donald Trump. But I was thinking Jeb Bush. Sure, Trump makes sense, but so does Jeb.  All Christie had left to offer was his steamroller tactics. Not money, not sufficient support.  Both Trump and Bush have support and money.  Both could use Rubio out.

BUT...

Would Trump really go for a NY Republican - NJ Republican ticket and think that it might be a winner for him?  Jeb might think Florida NJ is a good geographic mix.  Would Trump want Christie on the ticket if he could ask for Cruz who offers him some grassroots support. Jeb Bush doesn't appear to be interested in the grassroots voters.  He appears to want an establishment running mate.

Plus, there were rumors that Bush, Christie and possibly Kasich were colluding to take out Rubio prior to the debate. Where there's smoke, there's fire.

Again, I'm just speculating, but I think Christie is banking on Jeb.  Then again, he could have deals with both Bush and Trump.  

New Hampshire - dumbest Republicans in America

Polling in New Hampshire shows Jeb Bush with a late surge. Really New Hampshire?  Jeb BUSH? The name that can't win ever again?  And why the establish-candidate rush in that direction?  His debate performance was lackluster.  Chris Christie was the one with the effective attacks on Rubio, and you're even putting Kasich ahead of Christie. 

WHAT. THE.HELL?

What did Jeb Bush do to earn a surge? Not a thing.

The only redeeming thing about New Hampshire Republicans (the dumbest Republicans in America it seems) is that your opinion doesn't matter. South Carolina will not pick a Bush, or a Kasich.  Your New Hampshire opinions will die a muted death. Well, that and the fact that at least the best Bush can hope for is a distant second.

I really hope the poll is wrong.

GOP Debate winners and losers

This debate was an easy one on which to provide post-analysis. Kasich, Bush and Christie did indeed go after Rubio even though they had claimed there was no agreement to do so.  Trump played it safe, protecting his lead.  Rubio did an okay job defending himself against Chris Christie, but not as well as he should have done.  Jeb Bush was not as effective at the Rubio attack as Christie, or the I can govern message as well as either Christie or Kasich.

Ben Carson had some good lines and some humorous answers.  He did not stand out enough though.  

Ted Cruz held his ground, though right now, CNN is claiming he's evil because he's misrepresenting what CNN reported about Ben Carson leaving the race/not leaving the race.

3 hours and that's about the most notable stuff.  The only other point I'd note was that it seemed like there were a lot of Bush supporters in the crowd.

Winners:

Donald Trump - he was smart to play it safe and stay above the fray because the attacks were all focused elsewhere.  He's protecting his lead and did nothing to hurt it. He did nothing outstanding, but he did what he had to do.

Chris Christie - Most effective attacks on Rubio came from Christie.  He'll be more memorable than Bush or Kasich.

Losers:

Marco Rubio - He like Trump, needed to protect his position.  He didn't respond well and came across as needing more time to refine his resume and his skills.  He didn't come off badly, but he needed to better than he did.

Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson - Wallflowers with no memorable moments.

Carly Fiorina - MIA. Not her fault but she didn't make it to the stage.

Meh:

John Kasich and Ted Cruz - For very different reasons. Kasich did better than the losers.  Cruz on the other hand was stilted.  He had some very good moments and some flat ones as well.  He did himself no harm, and New Hampshire is not going to be his state.

Jeb Bush and "Please Clap"

There's validity in the notion that the Jeb Bush candidacy missed it's window. In 2012 maybe he could have outperformed Mitt Romney if he'd had the guts to run against an incumbent Obama. Maybe not.  A lot of people, unhappy with Obama, still had the taste of the previous Bush that they didn't like.  Two Bushes in and two faux conservatives, out of touch with blue collar America, out of touch with conservatism make a third Bush a pretty risky bet for both conservatives and the GOP.

I'm not unhappy to see this video, Jeb Bush asking an audience to 'please clap'. He's not the right choice for the GOP. But it does make me wonder - this looks like a SuperPAC ad but the watermarks on it say YahooNews and MSNBC. 

WaPo - Bush is not helping himself.

Um, what did I just say this morning at 3 a.m.? Jeb Bush is the jerk, not Trump.  As the Washington Post points out, Jeb Bush calling Trump a jerk is not helping Jeb Bush.

In the past week, Bush has called Trump a “jerk” who is “not serious” and is running a “chaos campaign.” The former Florida governor has also run ads calling Trump “unhinged” and also torn into the front-runner for praising the leadership qualities of Russian President Vladi­mir Putin and for talking about deporting Latinos and barring Muslims.

...“I’ll continue to call Trump out for his outrageous comments & naive ‘foreign policy.’ Even if no one else will,” Bush tweeted Monday.

Keep it up Jeb. You keep alienating those within your party by violating Reagan's 11th Commandment. Your problem is not your last name, it's your attitude. You continue to win over no one with your attacks which come across as vindictive and petty. So why is it not that way for Trump when he counter-punches? Two reasons:

(1) he's been the front runner and is primarily perceived as responding in kind - at least in your case. So for him it's forgivable as a necessary response. And,

(2) Trump's always been a loudmouth boor. It's expected of him. You have not been, so you being negative and insulting comes across as revealing your true colors which you prefer to keep hidden, but are now letting slip out, because of your frustration.

Not helping. But feel free to keep it up.

Jeb Bush, not a team player, but he is a jerk.

Most of the current crop of Republican nominees at one time or another during this cycle have said something to the effect of "any one of the people on this stage would be much better qualified to be president than Hillary Clinton".  They may not have not said those exact words, but even Donald Trump finally ruled out a third party run at the last Republican debate.  They all want to win, and most of them are team players  - not Jeb Bush.

Bush spoke in an interview with CBS’s Face the Nation scheduled for broadcast on Sunday and taped in New Hampshire on the same day he told a town hall audience Trump was a “jerk”...

On Friday, through Twitter, Trump called Bush “dumb as a rock”. He returned to the offensive on Sunday morning.

“To a certain extent, it is a little liberating to be able to post up against a guy who is not qualified to be president,” Bush said in the CBS interview, which was excerpted by the website Politico.

“I’m trying to point out that he’s not a serious candidate.

And there you have it - if I can't win I'm going to torpedo the guy who looks like he might win the GOP nomination because I'd rather help the Democrats the the Republicans, if Republicans don't pick me. He can't pretend that those words won't hurt Trump if he winds up winning the nomination.

And while Trump is not the ideal candidate, he's doing well for a reason. Bush doesn't seem to get that, and it's alienating voters at a rate so quickly that his Super PAC money won't help him recover them. More importantly from a winning the White House perspective, if Bush is saying this about Trump, why wouldn't he say it about Cruz, Carson, Fiorina, Paul or even Rubio or Christie if they end up taking the lead?

Jerk.

Addendum: Yes, I realize that calling Jeb Bush a jerk is sort of doing the same thing as Bush is doing to Trump. Don't care.  I'm offending 3%-5% of Republican voters (less because my readership at best probably numbers in the hundreds most of the time), while Jeb Bush is offending 20%-40% of GOP voters depending on which poll you believe, and in fact more if every Hillary Clinton ad turns out to be quotes of Jeb Bush slagging the nominee Trump. Besides everyone on the right should feel free to slag Bush.  No one in that family is a true conservative, and there is no chance he'll end up the nominee.

CNN's GOP Debate Post Analysis

I meant to comment on the GOP debate yesterday, but I did not have the time to do so.  So here are my thoughts today, well after everyone else has weighed in on it.  Unlike the GOP under card debate, the participants in the main debate were not yawners.  The debate itself did not possess any wow factors, but there were definitely some things worth noting.

Firstly, credit where it's due,Wolf Blitzer was not bad.  He was fair, and stood out of the way as much as he could.  Dana Bash was predictably liberal but nothing over the top, and also deserves some credit for keeping her liberal partisanship reasonably in check. And of course while Hugh Hewitt may have had a horse in the race, being a conservative he did not ask dumb, irrelevant questions, like climate change or living wage issues during a foreign policy debate.

As for the participants, here's some top line thoughts.

Ted Cruz - his content was good, but he did not come across as likable every time he went long and flouted the debate rules.  Once or twice is fine in order to make a point but he left the impression that he just didn't care about the rules and had a sense of self-importance.  If that's the image that sticks, it's not good for him.  That would be a shame because his content was good.

Marco Rubio - he came across as solid and knowledgeable. He did nit dazzle, but he left the impression that he would be a solid president if he were the nominee.  Despite his back story however, he did not come across as someone who can easily connect.  Maybe it's just me.  Despite his weakness on immigration he's solid on a lot of issues.  I want to like him, and I'm sure he'd be a decent president.  But all I can muster so far is 'Meh'.

Donald Trump - what Trump has going for him is remarkably, his bellicosity, tempered with well-timed compliments. What he delivers is populism in the form of knowing that things are messed up.  That's something missing not only in Democrat circles but also in large swaths of the GOP.  What he lacks, in spades, is specificity.  He says he's going to hire the best people.  I believe he would. But the problem is, unless he is secretly studying with  debate gurus and will unload unexpectedly during debates with Hillary Clinton, she is going to argue circles around him.  That's a recipe for general election failure.  The debate last night did nothing to change any of Trump's positives or negatives.

Chris Christie - I'm not a Christie guy but I think he won the debate.  He was tough. He was solid, he was forceful but he also connected.  

Jeb Bush - In la la land CNN thinks this guy is the winner.  Yes, he went after Trump, and he needed to do so.  But every single time he came across as bitter, petty, and not nice.  It was clear his debate was about him and Trump and not about details on what he wants for America.  He was trying to score political points and it's exactly why he will not win the nomination.

Ben Carson - He's smart but he's just too laid back.  It's like every answer he's reading you a bedtime story.  That's just not inspiring and it's not a winning formula.  He also has not faced a truly hostile opponent or panel of questioners yet.  I think his moment may have already passed, and it was even before this past debate.  He needed a lightning bolt, he delivered a cloud.

Carly Fiorina - Smart, mature, informed and a smooth debater.  She unfortunately delivered a debate that seemed a little canned and pat.  But that was forgivable.  What may have done her in during this debate is dhe did not manage to stand out.  In a field this big, you cannot afford to not stand out.  She needs traction and she needs it quickly, even more so after not getting it at the debate.

John Kasich - go home. While he was better than his previous debates as far as pettiness goes (where he was clearly a champion of sniping other candidates unnecessarily and spitefully), he just struck me as being overly eager: "look at me", "Ohio is great now", "look at me".  He traded in pettiness for petulance. Go home.

Rand Paul - He was testy. I don't think he was effective in being able to expand his numbers.  I think he was spoiling for a fight and he didn't get one.

Overall, I think because he did no harm, you can say Trump won.  But I expect to see bumps in support for any combination of Cruz, Rubio and Christie.  If either of the other two surge enough, it might be the end of Bush.  We can only hope.

Jeb Bush follows the herd on Obamacare

Jeb Bush must be panicking. Why else would he suddenly be making a pronouncement that he would repeal and replace Obamacare?   Leading from behind, Bush is looking for a gamechanger;

Bush is the third major Republican candidate to release an Obamacare-centric plan, along with US Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker unveiled his healthcare proposals earlier this year before he dropped out of the race.

Highlighting that this is about votes rather than conviction was this,

As part of its effort, however, the Bush campaign said it would introduce a "transition" plan for what it estimated were 17 million individuals it said have become "entangled in Obamacare."

Bush clearly sees the polling that shows, despite his fundraising advantage, he's not connecting with Republican voters. Hence the timing of this announcement. The odd part is that it happens on the same day as the first Democratic candidates debate. It's almost as if Bush wants it buried by other news. Is that deliberate or just him out of tune with what it takes to win a presidential election cycle?

I'm not one to jump to Jeb Bush's defense but...

I'm not looking for another Bush presidency, but the media continuing to do Hillary Clinton's bidding because the left fears him, and that's unacceptable.

The claim is he callously dismissed the deaths in the Oregon shooting with a "stuff happens".  Here's the whole clip however:

What Bush did, was choose words that could be easily taken out of context.  A double standard the left never has to worry about - even lies (Anthony Weiner's "my twitter was hacked") get accorded full sobriety and belief.

Boehner's doom is Jeb Bush's? No.

CNN is reporting that Boehner's resignation spells trouble for Jeb Bush.

House Speaker John Boehner's abrupt resignation Friday -- after an insurrection by grassroots activists infuriated at the failure of Washington Republicans to thwart President Barack Obama -- was another bad omen for a campaign wilting amid anti-establishment fury.

In the 2016 presidential race, outsiders are in, insiders are out and the messy power struggle that is splintering the GOP is going to make winning the nomination -- and then capturing the White House -- very tough for a party standard bearer like Bush.

As much as I'm not cheering for Bush to be the nominee, I think it's a bit of a stretch to suggest this is a problem for him. Bush has a lot of money. Bush has time before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. And more importantly while this might be a sign that there's dissension amongst the ranks, it doesn't mean what happened to Boehner will translate into the same sort of trouble for Jeb Bush.

Jeb Bush's tax plan - less complex complexity

Jeb Bush has proposed a tax plan that reduces taxes.  For that he deserves our applause.  The problem is that he also claims to have simplified it, but that's followed by a bunch of tweaks and reductions of deductions. That's not simpler, it's just different.

We will cut individual rates from seven brackets to three: 28%, 25% and 10%. At 28%, the highest tax bracket would return to where it was when President Ronald Reagan signed into law his monumental and successful 1986 tax reform.

That's a good start. But then,

The plan nearly doubles the standard deduction now taken by roughly two-thirds of all filers. It eliminates the marriage penalty, expands the Earned Income Tax Credit, ends the death tax, retires the Alternative Minimum Tax and ends the employee’s share of the Social Security tax on earnings for workers older than 67.

...and so it goes;

We will retain the deductibility of charitable contributions but cap the deductions used by the wealthy and Washington special interests, enabling tax-rate cuts across the board for everyone. And while we’re doing that, we will treat all noninvestment income the same, so unless you stake capital in an investment, you won’t be able to claim the capital-gains tax rate on your market gains.

Even when he's making a good point,

To stop American companies from moving out of the country, I will cut the corporate tax rate from 35%—the highest in the industrial world—to 20%, which is five percentage points below China’s.

he seemingly can't help but make it complicated.

We will end the practice of world-wide taxation on U.S. businesses, ...we will assess a one-time tax of 8.75%, payable over 10 years, on the more than $2 trillion in corporate profits sitting overseas.

We will also allow businesses to fully and immediately deduct new capital investments—a critical step to increase worker productivity and wages. To pay for this, we will eliminate most corporate tax deductions—which is where favor-seeking and lobbying are most common—and remove the deduction for borrowing costs. That deduction encourages business models dependent on heavy debt.

That's not going to gain him a lead in the polls.

The biggest virtue of Trump

Forget all of the things about speaking plainly, not being an inside the beltway politician, for conservatives, there may be one big overlooked virtue of having Donald Trump in the race - he might derail Jeb Bush's not-so-conservative Republican establishment candidacy.

Three top Jeb Bush fundraisers abruptly parted ways with his presidential campaign on Friday, amid internal personality conflicts and questions about the strength of his candidacy, POLITICO has learned.

There are different versions of what transpired. The Florida-based fundraising consultants — Kris Money, Trey McCarley, and Debbie Aleksander — have said that they voluntarily quit the campaign and were still working with Bush's super PAC, Right to Rise Super PAC. Others said the three, who worked under the same contract, were let go because they were no longer needed for the current phase of the campaign.

Then again, it might speak to his being a Democratic plant for the Hillary Clinton campaign because as we all know, she's not as unbeatable as everyone thinks and I'm sure she's worried about running against Jeb Bush.

Jeb Bush pulls a Hail Mary on SCOTUS

If Jeb Bush stands any chance of winning over grassroots conservatives he's got to get the Supreme Court nominations talking points exactly right.  I'm not my dad, I'm not my brother.  I'll nominate real conservative justices.  But this is not the 30 seconds left in the 4th quarter Hail Mary.  It's not even a 1st quarter Hail Mary.  This is still the pregame warm ups.  What gives?

Jeb Bush may be panicking already.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has tried to put some distance between himself and his famous family’s history of judicial nominations, saying he would look only at potential picks who have a “proven record” rather than bowing to political considerations.

He said past presidents — whom he didn’t name, but the past two Republicans in the White House were his father and his brother — have picked people “that don’t have a proven record” because they’ve been too worried about facing an increasingly bloody Senate confirmation process.

“They wander, and you go, ‘How could that be?’” Mr. Bush said at a town hall meeting this month in Keene, New Hampshire.

Firstly, he's not wrong. But distancing himself from family this early just seems a little bit desperate. He seems worried. He should be worried. But he should not be showing it this obviously.

On the campaign trail today

Overpriced snark.

Some notes from the campaign trail today, with an appropriate amount of snark. It's early, there are a lot of contenders and it turns out, snark and cynicism are easy. And a bit fun.  There's plenty of snark to go around. I haven't decided on a horse to back, so don't take it personally if I offend your candidate of choice. There aren't enough Democrats in the race so I'm a little short on snark there. Not my fault - Hillary has frightened almost all comers away. Besides, my snark is Canadian snark - so snark light.

Bobby Jindal sounded off on Scott Walker's health care plan. Because, that's big news. Nothing like hitting someone at the bottom of the top tier to grab some headlines. Right?

On the lighter side, there was Marco Rubio's day, could a perfect spiral become a downward spiral? It's not a big deal, but it's not going to help him. Unless he wants to play for the Redskins Native Americans.

The Washington Post held  a pity party for Bernie Sanders and his run against big media outlets. Like..the...Washington...Post?

Is Rand Paul souring on Rand Paul? At least, is Rand Paul souring on Rand Paul for president? "Rand Paul endorses Rand Paul!" Rand Paul, Rand Paul, Rand Paul. Did I say Rand Paul enough? Somebody has to do it.

Rick Perry shared his true feelings on the band Metallica. It's about time he stopped ducking the issue.

Hillary Clinton doesn't think Black Lives Matter, changing hearts doesn't matter, only regulation matters. Stand back, there's an implosion in progress.

Jeb Bush feels America has under-empowered the NSA. No wonder Clinton wants to face him.

Mike Huckabee declared the West Bank is part of Israel. That solves that.

Rick Santorum...wait you're still reading?  Alright, he attacked Ben Carson's medical research.

Ben Carson looks like he might win (Arizona).

Democrat Martin O'Malley poised to debate himself.  He stands a good chance of winning too.

Donald Trump, the New York Times has officially declared him the devil. And Heidi Klum, declares him an idiot. Seems like a smart marketing ploy except if it were it would be obvious and therefore, not smart.

Carly Fiorina slipped up and praised some Muslims.  Back in 2001. Is Michele Bachmann just jealous?

Debate Night GOP style

And here I am without popcorn.  From the sound of it Carly Fiorina won the first (undercard) debate.  I don't know, I missed it because I was on my way home from work.  That's why it was an undercard debate.  But frrom the commentary I'm seeing and hearing, I expect she'll be in the prime time slot next time around. 

In Brief

Here's my prediction for tonight - Scott Walker will win.  Why? Trump may consolidate his numbers but he is not likely to expand on them - not at this point.  Despite the appeal of his bull in a China shop approach, he really does need to acquire some polish.  That's going to take more time if it is even possible.

Jeb Bush will do well, but he will probably not impress anyone other than more big donors.  That leaves Scott Walker with the biggest opportunity.  I expect him to nail it.  We'll know soon enough.

GOP Candidate Info - Jeb Bush Edition

Jeb Bush's announcement for his 2016 presidential bid.

The problem with GOP primary voters is...

...that they just love the front runners from last time around.  How else do you explain Mitt Romney leading the Iowa straw poll? The good news is he's ahead of Jeb Bush.  The other bad news?  Jeb Bush is in second place.  

Coming soon?  Clash of the Establishment Titans.

Please, not another Bush

There's a myriad of reasons to not want another Bush in the White House.  They have a mixed record of conservatism at best.  I'd give the Bushes a combined rating of D- at best.  They did not embody conservatism, but rather establishment-ism. And if the GOP is not a conservative party, then why does it even exist?  We've already got a progressive liberal party, There's no need for a somewhat less progressive and less liberal party.  Furthermore, no name will stir the liberal base the way the name Bush will do.  

I doubt that conservative voters will rally around Jeb Bush the way the Republican establishment appears to be doing.  The problem with the counterweight on the actual conservative side is a split vote among many candidates.

In short, a successful Bush run, is yet another recipe for defeat.  Romney, McCain, Bush, Dole, Bush have been a list of elites with only 2 wins in 6 tries since 1992, and one win was without a popular vote win to boot.  In fact the other win was based on war time support.  The establishment appears to be running on fear of being losing and it proves to be the wrong strategy most every time.

Not only is an establishment, liberal Republican bad, another Bush is the worst possible name of the lot.  Truly, truly a bad idea.

Flat Bush

Republicans still seem to believe the path to victory is to ignore their base.  Obama should have strongly disabused them of the notion that catering to your grassroots will negate your chances of winning the White House.

By now the rumors abound about Jeb Bush running for president in 2016.  They almost are not even rumors anymore.  There are articles saying that if Jeb Bush`s last name was anything else, conservatives would be begging him to run.  I doubt that, but that`s neither here nor there.  Jeb Bush should not run.  Here`s why.

It simply comes down to this - his last name IS Bush.  He could be far more conservative than his brother or father.  It isn`t clear that he is mind you, but even if he were, it doesn`t matter.  He could stop making liberalesque decrees that accuse Republicans of being heartless on amnesty as of today.  It won`t matter.

A Jeb Bush nomination for president will ensure a Hillary Clinton presidency after the 2016 election.

Conservatives have had two Bush presidencies filled with domestic liberalism - tax increases, Medicare increases, suspect Supreme Court judicial nominations, softness on immigration and all sorts of other items. It`s true that W. still has a group of conservative supporters when it comes to national defense, but even in that there is no unanimity. Conservatives do not want another liberal Republican as their nominee.  Another Bush will be perceived as another H.W. Bush or a W.Bush or another McCain, Romney, Ford or Bob Dole.  Conservatives, particularly Tea Party conservatives will stay home in droves on election day.

Conversely, the far left are not huge fans of Hillary Clinton because for some reason she is perceived as mainstream by far too many people.  While they may not be too inclined to turn out and vote for her, the dynamic changes completely if she is running against a man with the name Bush, whom they will view as a member of a clan of evil Bush gnomes.  Bush hatred (aka Bush Derangement Syndrome) is not dead, only dormant.

It also should not be overlooked that a Bush win will also convey the message that the disconnect between

Republicans and conservative voters, has become an all out feud - an attempt to suppress the conservatives within the party in order to win in the center (which has already been redefined as far left of the original center by those on the left, and subsequently accepted as the center by the media).  Disenfranchising voters is not a recipe for GOP success.  Meanwhile, the GOP can not expect to win many new voters from the left of center who have been inundated with the message that Republicans are anti-human. 

In short another Bush nominee ensures lower Republican turnout and higher Democrat turnout.  That means not only does Hilary Clinton, a very liberal Democrat wins the presidency, but also a downstream impact in Senate, Congressional, and state offices will be negatively affected for Republicans. If Jeb Bush really wants to help his country, he won`t run in 2016.