Two Rubio posts in a row?!?

 Like I said, I'm generally not a fan.  But he's right again, this time on Big Tech.

Election poker hands

It's interesting to see how various parties are playing their hands this primary season. It's as if this were a long poker game.

Hillary Clinton is trying to bluff her way through emailgate even as another technician has pleaded the 5th amendment right to not self incriminate in her server scandal. With one already given immunity and another seemingly on the same course, it's starting to look like it's not Hillary's word against a single technician with a grudge, but rather at a minimum, two voices and some potential eventual email evidence. Should she bluff her way through the primaries, then get indicted, does she have to fold her hand?  On the other hand if the FBI cannot compile enough evidence, she can fall back to her stale argument of a "vast right wing conspiracy" to indict her and her bluff might actually succeed.

Florida Republican debate observations

Marco Rubio had the best performance at the debate last night, not because the hometown crowd applause for many of his points, but rather because he made some truly substantive points and sounded more presidential than Ted Cruz (my personal preference).

John Kasich in focus groups appeared to do well but I didn't see it.  He seemed very centrist which I found unappealing but the real problem for him as a candidate was his demeanor.  He seemed tired.  It reminded me of the George W. Bush debate where he was leaning on the podium and looked like he wanted to be somewhere else.  Kasich didn't display it to the same level, it was more subtle.  But it seemed to me that he was just waiting for Ohio be over so he can drop out.  Maybe I'm wrong but that was the impression I got.

Ted Cruz did well but in order for him to move the dial on future results he's got to expand his message to a broader audience.  There's only one way to do that.  Ted - we know you'd govern as a Constitutional conservative, move past it.  The single issue that would move the dial for Cruz would be for him to focus on the economy and jobs and job security.  He's hit on it a few times but he needs to do it more.

Donald Trump looked more presidential (and as I write, his press conference with Ben Carson's endorsement he's seeming it even more).  What I found fascinating was his closing argument about Supreme Court justice appointments over the next four years. v If he meant what he said, that's a powerful argument for those doubting his conservative credentials.  Let's see if he hits on that more going forward.

Overall, I don't think the debate will change any expected results in the next few states.  It may add a few points for Trump and for Rubio, but there is not going to be a paradigm shift out of it.

The best path for Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio is definitely not going to be the GOP nominee for 2016. Should he stay in and hope for a miracle?  Should he stick it out through Florida? Neither.  Here's why.

Marco Rubio does have a path to the presidency.  It just doesn't cross the finish line in 2016.  He's got some image repair to do.  Bowing out now would prove he's not an establishment lapdog.  It would prove he's not blind to reality.  It would prove he's gracious.  And it would prove he's willing to put the needs of many on the party (the anti-Trump factions) ahead of himself.

It would give him 4 to 8 years to re-define himself among conservatives.  He needs it.  The best path for Rubio is to bow out, because it's the best path for his political career and more importantly for the party.

Trump Day

Donald Trump has won Michigan and Mississippi this evening. Hillary Clinton has so far apparently earned a split of those two states with Sanders.

Kasich and Rubio combined in Mississippi garnered less than 15% of the vote, less than 36%.  They need to get out of the race.  The only purpose they can serve now is to win their own states and forestall Trump and possibly force a brokered convention.  If they can actually win their home states.  It's becoming highly questionable that they can.  And if they are successful, they might actually bring down the Republican party with a brokered convention.  Ted Cruz, despite having a bad day, is the only real other alternative at this point.

Hillary Clinton meanwhile is struggling with Bernie Sanders. She's appearing more and more to be a weak candidate for the general election, just like Trump.

This is bizarro world.

Super Tuesday tomorrow

Tomorrow is Super Tuesday. Donald Trump is going to win the majority of the delegates on the GOP side. At least 2 candidates must drop out if Republican voters want 'anyone but Trump' as the nominee.  If Ted Cruz doesn't win by enough of a margin in Texas, he has to drop out.  If Rubio performs poorly in Florida, he has to drop out.  Kasich and Carson should be out already but they aren't.  The longer this drags on, the harder it is going to be to beat Trump.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is going to win most every state tomorrow. Sanders will do well in some of the upcoming states if his losses aren't too terrible tomorrow but at this point, it's looking more and more like a miracle would be needed to see Sanders as the Democratic nominee.

After tomorrow barring any upset results, it's about 80% likely that the presidential election will feature Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Just, wow. 

Trump apparently is leading Hillary in New York.  Maybe with Chris Christie he can also win in New Jersey. That's probably going to be necessary since he could conceivably lose a few Republican stronghold states.  Then again if Bloomberg jumps into the race as an independent it could topple that logic as well, as far as New York goes.

The results of this election are looking more and more bizarre as well as potentially disastrous for conservatives. One thing for sure, it's the most interesting election cycle on the GOP side since 1980. But it isn't a TV show, it's the future of the country that hangs in the balance.

A comparison of debate qualities

In 1980 the Republican debates between Reagan and Bush were specific, and civil.

As an aside, Reagan turned out to be closer to correct than Bush but that's a discussion for another time. By contrast, here's last night's 3 way slugfest between Trump, Rubio and Cruz.

Chris Christie torpedo theory

Do you think it's possible that Chris Christie took his shot at Marco Rubio in the last New Hampshire debate, knowing that if he could successfully torpedo him it would make him a prime candidate as the #2 on the ticket for someone else who is polling better and isn't going to drop out of the race this week? Indications are that Christie is about to drop out

I'm just speculating.  I know a lot of people are thinking that other candidate might be Donald Trump. But I was thinking Jeb Bush. Sure, Trump makes sense, but so does Jeb.  All Christie had left to offer was his steamroller tactics. Not money, not sufficient support.  Both Trump and Bush have support and money.  Both could use Rubio out.

BUT...

Would Trump really go for a NY Republican - NJ Republican ticket and think that it might be a winner for him?  Jeb might think Florida NJ is a good geographic mix.  Would Trump want Christie on the ticket if he could ask for Cruz who offers him some grassroots support. Jeb Bush doesn't appear to be interested in the grassroots voters.  He appears to want an establishment running mate.

Plus, there were rumors that Bush, Christie and possibly Kasich were colluding to take out Rubio prior to the debate. Where there's smoke, there's fire.

Again, I'm just speculating, but I think Christie is banking on Jeb.  Then again, he could have deals with both Bush and Trump.  

GOP Debate winners and losers

This debate was an easy one on which to provide post-analysis. Kasich, Bush and Christie did indeed go after Rubio even though they had claimed there was no agreement to do so.  Trump played it safe, protecting his lead.  Rubio did an okay job defending himself against Chris Christie, but not as well as he should have done.  Jeb Bush was not as effective at the Rubio attack as Christie, or the I can govern message as well as either Christie or Kasich.

Ben Carson had some good lines and some humorous answers.  He did not stand out enough though.  

Ted Cruz held his ground, though right now, CNN is claiming he's evil because he's misrepresenting what CNN reported about Ben Carson leaving the race/not leaving the race.

3 hours and that's about the most notable stuff.  The only other point I'd note was that it seemed like there were a lot of Bush supporters in the crowd.

Winners:

Donald Trump - he was smart to play it safe and stay above the fray because the attacks were all focused elsewhere.  He's protecting his lead and did nothing to hurt it. He did nothing outstanding, but he did what he had to do.

Chris Christie - Most effective attacks on Rubio came from Christie.  He'll be more memorable than Bush or Kasich.

Losers:

Marco Rubio - He like Trump, needed to protect his position.  He didn't respond well and came across as needing more time to refine his resume and his skills.  He didn't come off badly, but he needed to better than he did.

Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson - Wallflowers with no memorable moments.

Carly Fiorina - MIA. Not her fault but she didn't make it to the stage.

Meh:

John Kasich and Ted Cruz - For very different reasons. Kasich did better than the losers.  Cruz on the other hand was stilted.  He had some very good moments and some flat ones as well.  He did himself no harm, and New Hampshire is not going to be his state.

Trump, you're losing my interest

So far I've been willing to give Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt. He doesn't know things, but he's going to hire the smartest people.  That's believable. He's not long on specifics - that's just campaigning.  He's rude - that's appealing to voters who are sick of Washington BAU (business as usual) and political correctness.  He says outrageous things that are not plausible - that's going to appeal to a lot of low information voters. He might not really turn out to be a conservative and at best deliver or push a moderate agenda.  That's a small price to pay for restoring fiscal sanity and using common sense in trade deals. No doubt budget and trade deals will play into his wheelhouse.  He might not appoint conservative justices. Hey, Neither Bush did a great job at that either.

BUT...

I'm overlooking so many things, I'm starting to feel like a Hillary or an Obama supporter.  It's starting to become unpalatable.

Don't get me wrong - I was never actually a Trump supporter, I was just more open to having a conversation about his pros and cons, and waiting to see what he did and said, and how he handled himself than a lot of people who just jumped straight to 'NO'.  Quick to judge is not my style, I prefer to analyze - and the more data there is the better.  But the data coming in is pointing out two things - his growing popularity and his declining sense of invincibility.  Other candidates don't seem willing to take a proper run at him and whoever the Democrat nominee ends up being, they will not be so skittish. He has not been tested in any major way as far as political combat.  It's been like spring training.

In addition, the Trump persona is wearing thin.  It's getting harder and hard to overlook the negatives associated with it, in addition to all of the other justifications I listed above.  And they are becoming more and more justifications rather than counterpoints.

I'm not dismissing him entirely, but my tolerance is wearing thin.  What he needs to be doing is getting more serious, not more outlandish.  I'm not suggesting he ditch all the trappings, but he needs to seem more presidential now - not as he suggested recently, after he's elected.

He's not the worst candidate, but he's not the best.  He would not make the worst president (that'd be Hillary or Bernie) but he wouldn't be the best either.  A Chris Christie, or a Marco Rubio, both accused of being RINOs, merit a second look.  After all, a RINO is often a compromise specialist, and if the GOP hold the Congress and Senate, who would they have to compromise with? Republicans. That's not such a bad thing for conservatives.  Let's hope that's not what Jeb Bush is banking on to refill his sails. Of course a more conservative candidate would be nice, but we also have to consider electability, and as much as I like so many positions of Ted Cruz, I don't think he's ultimately electable. 

Ultimately not much is new, I was undecided before and I still am.  But as we get closer I'm using a much more critical lens for every candidate.  I'm sure I'm not alone on that. A Trump travelling roadshow/carnival is simply not enough.  Attacking rivals is not enough.  We need a platform.  If you want to win - hire those smartest people now.

CNN's GOP Debate Post Analysis

I meant to comment on the GOP debate yesterday, but I did not have the time to do so.  So here are my thoughts today, well after everyone else has weighed in on it.  Unlike the GOP under card debate, the participants in the main debate were not yawners.  The debate itself did not possess any wow factors, but there were definitely some things worth noting.

Firstly, credit where it's due,Wolf Blitzer was not bad.  He was fair, and stood out of the way as much as he could.  Dana Bash was predictably liberal but nothing over the top, and also deserves some credit for keeping her liberal partisanship reasonably in check. And of course while Hugh Hewitt may have had a horse in the race, being a conservative he did not ask dumb, irrelevant questions, like climate change or living wage issues during a foreign policy debate.

As for the participants, here's some top line thoughts.

Ted Cruz - his content was good, but he did not come across as likable every time he went long and flouted the debate rules.  Once or twice is fine in order to make a point but he left the impression that he just didn't care about the rules and had a sense of self-importance.  If that's the image that sticks, it's not good for him.  That would be a shame because his content was good.

Marco Rubio - he came across as solid and knowledgeable. He did nit dazzle, but he left the impression that he would be a solid president if he were the nominee.  Despite his back story however, he did not come across as someone who can easily connect.  Maybe it's just me.  Despite his weakness on immigration he's solid on a lot of issues.  I want to like him, and I'm sure he'd be a decent president.  But all I can muster so far is 'Meh'.

Donald Trump - what Trump has going for him is remarkably, his bellicosity, tempered with well-timed compliments. What he delivers is populism in the form of knowing that things are messed up.  That's something missing not only in Democrat circles but also in large swaths of the GOP.  What he lacks, in spades, is specificity.  He says he's going to hire the best people.  I believe he would. But the problem is, unless he is secretly studying with  debate gurus and will unload unexpectedly during debates with Hillary Clinton, she is going to argue circles around him.  That's a recipe for general election failure.  The debate last night did nothing to change any of Trump's positives or negatives.

Chris Christie - I'm not a Christie guy but I think he won the debate.  He was tough. He was solid, he was forceful but he also connected.  

Jeb Bush - In la la land CNN thinks this guy is the winner.  Yes, he went after Trump, and he needed to do so.  But every single time he came across as bitter, petty, and not nice.  It was clear his debate was about him and Trump and not about details on what he wants for America.  He was trying to score political points and it's exactly why he will not win the nomination.

Ben Carson - He's smart but he's just too laid back.  It's like every answer he's reading you a bedtime story.  That's just not inspiring and it's not a winning formula.  He also has not faced a truly hostile opponent or panel of questioners yet.  I think his moment may have already passed, and it was even before this past debate.  He needed a lightning bolt, he delivered a cloud.

Carly Fiorina - Smart, mature, informed and a smooth debater.  She unfortunately delivered a debate that seemed a little canned and pat.  But that was forgivable.  What may have done her in during this debate is dhe did not manage to stand out.  In a field this big, you cannot afford to not stand out.  She needs traction and she needs it quickly, even more so after not getting it at the debate.

John Kasich - go home. While he was better than his previous debates as far as pettiness goes (where he was clearly a champion of sniping other candidates unnecessarily and spitefully), he just struck me as being overly eager: "look at me", "Ohio is great now", "look at me".  He traded in pettiness for petulance. Go home.

Rand Paul - He was testy. I don't think he was effective in being able to expand his numbers.  I think he was spoiling for a fight and he didn't get one.

Overall, I think because he did no harm, you can say Trump won.  But I expect to see bumps in support for any combination of Cruz, Rubio and Christie.  If either of the other two surge enough, it might be the end of Bush.  We can only hope.

Marco Rubio on Hillary's SuperPAC

Seizing on Ted Cruz's thunderous applause, Marco Rubio goes after the media.  A little bit "me too", but it's well done.

The CNN Republican Debate

A lot has already been said and analyzed concerning last nights Republican candidates' debate on CNN.  All I can add is my impression of who did well and who didn't.

I think pretty much everyone did a good job of representing themselves - even CNN did a good job, probably because it was Jake Tapper running things. 

I was most impressed with Fiorina, Carson, Rubio and Kasich (at least his list of accomplishments impressed), but others all represented themselves fairly well.  Trump did better than I expected, as did Bush.  Rand Paul defined his positions well and he will certainly appeal to a segment of Republican voters. He was of course well spoken and reasoned, but I find myself less inclined to consider supporting him than before.  Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee both did well but while the former came across as almost too polished, Huckabee, who would not be in my top 5 choices, came across in a connected, approachable way.

This is still early on, and things will change, but it will be interesting to see how this changes the polling.

On the campaign trail today

Overpriced snark.

Some notes from the campaign trail today, with an appropriate amount of snark. It's early, there are a lot of contenders and it turns out, snark and cynicism are easy. And a bit fun.  There's plenty of snark to go around. I haven't decided on a horse to back, so don't take it personally if I offend your candidate of choice. There aren't enough Democrats in the race so I'm a little short on snark there. Not my fault - Hillary has frightened almost all comers away. Besides, my snark is Canadian snark - so snark light.

Bobby Jindal sounded off on Scott Walker's health care plan. Because, that's big news. Nothing like hitting someone at the bottom of the top tier to grab some headlines. Right?

On the lighter side, there was Marco Rubio's day, could a perfect spiral become a downward spiral? It's not a big deal, but it's not going to help him. Unless he wants to play for the Redskins Native Americans.

The Washington Post held  a pity party for Bernie Sanders and his run against big media outlets. Like..the...Washington...Post?

Is Rand Paul souring on Rand Paul? At least, is Rand Paul souring on Rand Paul for president? "Rand Paul endorses Rand Paul!" Rand Paul, Rand Paul, Rand Paul. Did I say Rand Paul enough? Somebody has to do it.

Rick Perry shared his true feelings on the band Metallica. It's about time he stopped ducking the issue.

Hillary Clinton doesn't think Black Lives Matter, changing hearts doesn't matter, only regulation matters. Stand back, there's an implosion in progress.

Jeb Bush feels America has under-empowered the NSA. No wonder Clinton wants to face him.

Mike Huckabee declared the West Bank is part of Israel. That solves that.

Rick Santorum...wait you're still reading?  Alright, he attacked Ben Carson's medical research.

Ben Carson looks like he might win (Arizona).

Democrat Martin O'Malley poised to debate himself.  He stands a good chance of winning too.

Donald Trump, the New York Times has officially declared him the devil. And Heidi Klum, declares him an idiot. Seems like a smart marketing ploy except if it were it would be obvious and therefore, not smart.

Carly Fiorina slipped up and praised some Muslims.  Back in 2001. Is Michele Bachmann just jealous?

Handicapping the GOP field

Eventually I'll get to the point that I can add more thoughts on the various candidates with respect to all the different issues facing the country.  But for now, I thought it would be interesting to see what a professional handicapping outfit forsees.

Two Word Opinions: July 2013 Edition

There are too many things to comment on with dedicated posts today, so here are some quick two word opinions with links to the stories behind them.

Janet Napolitano Resigns: Good riddance.

Eric Holder likely to stick around?  Face palm.

Egypt on the verge of some sort of violence while Obama's administration exhibits: Unfinished idiocy.

Obama advisers blast Obama policy: About time.

Zimmerman verdict coming soon: Don't care..

Zimmerman verdict could cause riots in Miami: Okay, bad.

Rubio's stock sinking with GOP voters: Immigration error

Palin might run for Senate: Improving Alaska

Jobs report worse than expected: Not unexpected.

Bernanke makes unbelievable rate pledge: Jobs mandate?

Press going after Rubio like he was Jindal or something

The good news:  The GOP does have a good class of rising stars.  They have a lot of energy, and a lot of ideas and even charisma.  The bad news: the left wants to destroy them all before they have a chance to find their legs and they aren't shy about throwing anything and everything at the person they are attacking.

They'll go so far as to attack someone for reaching for a drink of water during a speech.

That's juvenile, pedantic and beneath real journalism.  That CBS needs it pointed out, sadly comes as no surprise.  They are too busy following in the footsteps of Dan Rather with the gotcha journalism when it comes to conservatves and Republicans and anyone Tea Party related.

The Crist Romney Connection

If you are a voter in Florida's upcoming GOP primary, you probably remember Governor Charlie Crist veering left and facing Marco Rubio as an Independent in the 2010 midterm election for Senator.  Rubio won, and Crist came off as really, really badly.  So what bolder, more shrewd campaign move for Romney than to use Crist's campaign staff?

Stroke...of...brilliance.

Quick Two Word Opinions

Here's a few more quick hit opinions on recent news items that I haven't had a chance to expound more thought on.

Gaddafi has been killed in Libya, ending his malfeasance forever - About time.

Greece is on the verge of collapse and the EU is at odds about bailing them out again - About time.

Joe Biden wants to run for president in 2016 - Great idea.

U.S. troops will be out of Iraq by year end - election bait.

#OWS Occupt Wall Street continues - Really? Yawn.

The Washington Post did a hit piece on Marco Rubio about his parents - no accountability.

Herman Cain leads the Nevada straw poll - Raising Cain.  (I had to say it somewhere).

Logical Question For Liberals

Here's a question for liberals. If conservatives are greedy, then why is it that...