Hillary Corruptocrat

I'm not gonna lie, there are a lot of reasons to worry that Donald Trump is slipping in the polls and perhaps the silent majority, the paradigm shift many people are expecting might not be happening.  But no reason to worry is bigger than this:

Quick linkaround along with some thoughts.

Just a few links today, because there were a couple of topics I wanted to comment on briefly.

Did Erdogan stage his own coup d'etat in Turkey?  He's clamped down like a Saddam Hussein might do.  That doesn't mean he's not just using a coup as an excuse, but he's not really all that pro-West so in the end it doesn't matter.  

The Nice, France truck terrorist was indirectly ISIS enabled. Again, it doesn't matter how he was radicalized (by himself, or via clerics or via trips to ISIS strongholds).  What matters is that he was radicalized and it hasn't stopped.  Obama and Clinton have done a terrible job since Obama's apology tour in embracing their enemies, apologizing and even denying there's a problem.  Things have only gotten worse since 2009.  I'm no big fan of Bush but remember how relatively safe things were between 2001 and 2008 compared to now?

Along those lines of security doves chickens, remember the Russian reset that Hillary flubbed during the meeting?  Well she flubbed the details too. Since the Russian invasion of Crimea, they continue to be aggressive in the Ukrainian nation.  It's gotten so bad even Obama had to defer to NATO condemnation of Russian action. Thanks Hillary for that reset.  Great insights, smooth move. 

In a similar vein, Hillary's slump in the polls is real. It's not just the one poll.  There's a trend.  And if you look at the battleground states, it's happening in some of the key races. Going into the convention weeks, Trump needs to maintain his non-momentum by ensuring that he does not interfere at all with Hillary's downward momentum and trajectory.  Stand aside and let her continue to crumble.  I'm not sure Trump is capable of staying out of the headlines for a couple of reasons (1. the media 2. Trump).  But if he can, this might be the best time to do it.  Then again, it's convention week.  That's not a time to not toot your own horn.  Maybe he can concentrate on a positive message.  It would provide a great contrast with 'dishonest Hillary'. 

Trump, you're losing my interest

So far I've been willing to give Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt. He doesn't know things, but he's going to hire the smartest people.  That's believable. He's not long on specifics - that's just campaigning.  He's rude - that's appealing to voters who are sick of Washington BAU (business as usual) and political correctness.  He says outrageous things that are not plausible - that's going to appeal to a lot of low information voters. He might not really turn out to be a conservative and at best deliver or push a moderate agenda.  That's a small price to pay for restoring fiscal sanity and using common sense in trade deals. No doubt budget and trade deals will play into his wheelhouse.  He might not appoint conservative justices. Hey, Neither Bush did a great job at that either.

BUT...

I'm overlooking so many things, I'm starting to feel like a Hillary or an Obama supporter.  It's starting to become unpalatable.

Don't get me wrong - I was never actually a Trump supporter, I was just more open to having a conversation about his pros and cons, and waiting to see what he did and said, and how he handled himself than a lot of people who just jumped straight to 'NO'.  Quick to judge is not my style, I prefer to analyze - and the more data there is the better.  But the data coming in is pointing out two things - his growing popularity and his declining sense of invincibility.  Other candidates don't seem willing to take a proper run at him and whoever the Democrat nominee ends up being, they will not be so skittish. He has not been tested in any major way as far as political combat.  It's been like spring training.

In addition, the Trump persona is wearing thin.  It's getting harder and hard to overlook the negatives associated with it, in addition to all of the other justifications I listed above.  And they are becoming more and more justifications rather than counterpoints.

I'm not dismissing him entirely, but my tolerance is wearing thin.  What he needs to be doing is getting more serious, not more outlandish.  I'm not suggesting he ditch all the trappings, but he needs to seem more presidential now - not as he suggested recently, after he's elected.

He's not the worst candidate, but he's not the best.  He would not make the worst president (that'd be Hillary or Bernie) but he wouldn't be the best either.  A Chris Christie, or a Marco Rubio, both accused of being RINOs, merit a second look.  After all, a RINO is often a compromise specialist, and if the GOP hold the Congress and Senate, who would they have to compromise with? Republicans. That's not such a bad thing for conservatives.  Let's hope that's not what Jeb Bush is banking on to refill his sails. Of course a more conservative candidate would be nice, but we also have to consider electability, and as much as I like so many positions of Ted Cruz, I don't think he's ultimately electable. 

Ultimately not much is new, I was undecided before and I still am.  But as we get closer I'm using a much more critical lens for every candidate.  I'm sure I'm not alone on that. A Trump travelling roadshow/carnival is simply not enough.  Attacking rivals is not enough.  We need a platform.  If you want to win - hire those smartest people now.

Marco Rubio on Hillary's SuperPAC

Seizing on Ted Cruz's thunderous applause, Marco Rubio goes after the media.  A little bit "me too", but it's well done.

Obama introduces Hillary to the underside of the Emailgate bus

This interview, complete with some cleverly hidden words, shows the president is not on Hillary's side and will not run cover for her on the Emailgate scandal.

Notice:

(1) He claims to have not known about it when it happened. In other words this is her own scandal, not anyone else's.

(2) It's been "ginned up" "in part" because of politics. So he's saying (or implying at least) that there's legitimate concern there as well.

Thanks Obama, that's actually helpful. 

Whoa. Trump leading Hillary

Before you go Trump crazy, this could be the start of a broader trend of Republican nominees rating ahead of Clinton or a result of headline volume. Media has been focused on the evils of Trump, partly as a tactic of avoiding the evils of Hillary.

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton head-to-head, according to a new poll released Friday.

The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.

In other head-to-head matchups, Trump beats out Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) by 44 percent to 40 percent; Vice President Joe Biden by 44 percent to 42 percent; and former Vice President Al Gore by 44 percent to 41 percent.

Still.  Whoa.