GOP Undercard debate - let it be the last one

Here's my impression of the last two hours:

George Pataki:

:

Mike Huckabee:

Rick Santorum:

Lindsey Graham:

On the campaign trail today

Overpriced snark.

Some notes from the campaign trail today, with an appropriate amount of snark. It's early, there are a lot of contenders and it turns out, snark and cynicism are easy. And a bit fun.  There's plenty of snark to go around. I haven't decided on a horse to back, so don't take it personally if I offend your candidate of choice. There aren't enough Democrats in the race so I'm a little short on snark there. Not my fault - Hillary has frightened almost all comers away. Besides, my snark is Canadian snark - so snark light.

Bobby Jindal sounded off on Scott Walker's health care plan. Because, that's big news. Nothing like hitting someone at the bottom of the top tier to grab some headlines. Right?

On the lighter side, there was Marco Rubio's day, could a perfect spiral become a downward spiral? It's not a big deal, but it's not going to help him. Unless he wants to play for the Redskins Native Americans.

The Washington Post held  a pity party for Bernie Sanders and his run against big media outlets. Like..the...Washington...Post?

Is Rand Paul souring on Rand Paul? At least, is Rand Paul souring on Rand Paul for president? "Rand Paul endorses Rand Paul!" Rand Paul, Rand Paul, Rand Paul. Did I say Rand Paul enough? Somebody has to do it.

Rick Perry shared his true feelings on the band Metallica. It's about time he stopped ducking the issue.

Hillary Clinton doesn't think Black Lives Matter, changing hearts doesn't matter, only regulation matters. Stand back, there's an implosion in progress.

Jeb Bush feels America has under-empowered the NSA. No wonder Clinton wants to face him.

Mike Huckabee declared the West Bank is part of Israel. That solves that.

Rick Santorum...wait you're still reading?  Alright, he attacked Ben Carson's medical research.

Ben Carson looks like he might win (Arizona).

Democrat Martin O'Malley poised to debate himself.  He stands a good chance of winning too.

Donald Trump, the New York Times has officially declared him the devil. And Heidi Klum, declares him an idiot. Seems like a smart marketing ploy except if it were it would be obvious and therefore, not smart.

Carly Fiorina slipped up and praised some Muslims.  Back in 2001. Is Michele Bachmann just jealous?

Same old same old

There's not much new under the sun.  Liberals continue to be liberal in the progressive, non-classical sense.  The media continues to shill, and tingle for Doomocrats and president Obama.  The GOP establishment have got their man the nomination.  The national debt continues to grow at a sickening pace.

On the other hand, classical liberalism - now known as conservatism hasn't changed because what makes sense, still makes sense.  And conservative bloggers have hit every important topic from Alinsky, to Mises to the Constitution, to every Obama hypocrisy and scandal already.  It makes it difficult to write about new stuff.

Something game-changing seems due.  I'm not talking about Santorum dropping out of the race.  That wasn't a game changer.  It was to be expected at some point.

I'm not sure what, but something bigger just seems due.

Post Santorum Depression

After Santorum, depression set in. Rick Santorum  has suspended his campaign for president. I wasn't a big backer of Santorum, but I'll give him this - he wasn't Mitt Romney.

GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum said Tuesday he is suspending his campaign.

He made the announcement at the Gettysburg Hotel in Gettysburg, Pa., talking about his young daughter's illness and reflecting on the campaign.

His 3-year-old daughter Bella was taken to a Virginia hospital Friday with pneumonia. Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, left the campaign trail until this afternoon. The child has a life-threatening genetic disorder known as Trisomy 18.

Of course we all wish him and his daughter well. If ever there was a personal reason to suspend a campaign, this would be it.

But he was by most accounts the last line of defense against a Romney nomination.   Mitt Romney now has an easier path to the nomination.  Granted he was an odds-on favorite to win anyway, but for those of us not enamored with his brand of barely-conservative(-this-week), etch-a-sketch, phony conservatism, holding out hope that we still had options was at least lukewarm comfort.

Newt Gingrich has said he will remain in the race.  But his chances of winning are virtually non-existent.  This is no longer Romney's race to lose - it's his.  That's truly unfortunate.  A brokered convention may have been bloody, it may have been expensive and unproductive, but that was not a guarantee.  It may have been healthy. None of these candidates were ideal, but a brokered convention may have caused someone to rise to the occasion.  It might have resulted in some great speeches and it might have ended in a unifying rally cry.  But it's not to be.  

We are now faced with Obama and Obama-lite.  Maybe old Etch-A-Sketch will surprise us and really turn out to be a conservative, but I wouldn't bet on it.  I'm not actually depressed; given the choice between Obama and Romney, I would hold my nose and vote for Romney over Obama.  After all, it would be easier to hold Romney's feet to a Tea Party fire than Obama's.  Obama doesn't care what the Tea Party wants.  Romney on the other hand, with a conservative Congress and Senate, would be at least pliable to the conservative viewpoint.  That's not ideal, but it may be the best we can expect now.

Santorum Wins Louisiana (By A Lot)

Via Fox:

Rick Santorum won the Louisiana primary Saturday, solidifying his support among conservatives in the Deep South as he faces a tough next couple of weeks in state competitions that are predicted to favor frontrunner Mitt Romney. The former Pennsylvania senator won 49 percent of the vote, with Romney coming in second with 27 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in third with 17 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul finishing last with 6 percent.

Good news for the Not Romney camp.  Meanwhile, Santorum contended he's been outspent 60:1 in Wisconsin by Romney.  Ouch.  A healthy win in the deep south again helps Santorum geographically but Wisconsin will be pivotal because it is a state that has both a Midwest feel but also a more liberal base than other Midwest states.  That means either Romney or Santorum has a shot at winning it under the right circumstances.

A win for Santorum there would certainly provide a strong wind of momentum after Louisiana.  Similarly for Romney, a win could be used to portray Santorum as a regional candidate like the perception took hold for Gingrich (in a big way).

Stay tuned.

The Devil He Has A Plan

Paul Harvey muses as to what he would do if he were the devil, in order to achieve his goals.  This was back in 1965, but it's chilling in its accuracy regarding what has been, and is happening.

It's not fashionable to talk about the devil.  Just ask Rick Santorum.  But believe or not, certainly there is a stunning correlation to events of the day between Paul Harvey's best guess at what the devil would do if he could.  The election may be about fiscal issues primarily, but the moral fabric of the nation is always important.  Without it, a sense of fiscal responsibility is not even possible.

Paul Harvey was right - the devil he has a plan.

Illinois primary will go to Romney

In what I predict will be a depressing development, today's Illinois primary will shake out for Mitt Romney, despite the strength of recent Santorum showings and head-to-head polling versus Obama.  It doesn't matter in the bigger picture.  Yes, there are a lot of potential delegates for Romney to scoop up today, and it will help him progress towards the nomination.  But Illinois will vote for Obama in November anyway.

Big Picture: Perception of the GOP nominee

Then what?

Here's a strategic question I promised to talk about a few days back:  How is the GOP going to be perceived coming out of the nomination process?  It depends on a few factors; whether the current battle is hurting the eventual nominee, who the nominee is and even to a certain extent, what ends up happening to Ron Paul.

After the Republican party has it's nominee, that person will have to face president Obama.  The internal nomination process and the dragged out contest this year was actually a result of a design put in place by former chairman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele.  He put in place the proportional delegation assignments for states which has served to draw out the nomination process since the winner-take-all assignment, particularly in the early states, prevent a front-runner from winning too many delegates too quickly and sewing up a nomination before being vetted on a more national basis.  Of course the other factor is that the front runner hasn't really gotten the electorate to rally behind him.

5 lessons from the Alabama & Mississippi primaries

Five lessons from the Alabama and Mississippi primary results:

1. Mitt Romney's biggest ally is the multitude of his enemies:  Alabama and Mississippi prove that the not Romney votes can continue to be split while Santorum and Gingrich remain in the race. What matters more is that Romney's delegate advantage is maintained by those votes being split between Gingrich and Santorum.

2. Santorum and Gingrich are not coordinating states among themselves and they probably should be doing so. The most effective use of the combined resources of Gingrich and Santorum in fighting Romney, in isolation from each other, rather than fighting each other as well.  That keeps that vote splitting to a minimum - split up states among each candidate and focus your limited resources in smaller, focused, controlled bursts.  In essence they can make Romney fight a two front war rather than benefiting from a free-for-all.

3. Mitt Romney's strategy of picking off easy delegates is slowly working - Hawaii, Samoa, Guam add to his total.  His third place delegates in Alabama and Mississippi aren't inconsequential either.  They aren't high profile, but the numbers still count, and they are counting in his favor.

4. Gingrich is a regional candidate. Paul is a nomad candidate.  Santorum and Romney can both claim with some validity that they have won in a broad spectrum of regions.  Gingrich cannot claim the same.  His success has been all deep south success, and even there, it's limited. Paul is becoming a non-factor and he will not have enough momentum to get a prime time slot at the GOP convention.  He may end up being given one in an attempt to buy his allegiance, but he will not have proportionally earned it.  He's fading to the status of footnote or afterthought.

5.  The night was more of a loss for Romney than anything else.  Yes Santorum gets momentum and in the long run that may be the big story.  But Mitt Romney did not close off the race and wins in those southern states would have been bold victories that could have given him the air of inevitability and sealed the nomination for him.  Instead, by playing the long game, he allowed both Santorum and Gingrich to survive.  It was a timid play.  He could have tried to end it in those southern states but he didn't.  What is striking to me is that his timidity doesn't speak favorably about how he would do as president.  No bold solutions, he would just tinker around the edges. That's not exactly what the country needs, nor what he has promised.

And after all of that, I'm still re-thinking things. 

Santorum wins Alabama and Mississippi

Santorum now the guy?

Hmm. This requires a real re-think.  Either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich could probably tackle Mitt Romney in a one on one contest in a good number of states.  

If one of them was out of the race then Mitt Romney, would not be the inevitable GOP nominee. In fact, Romney could very well be the underdog in that scenario.  Of course that would depend on the timing of a head to head Romney versus the lone Not Romney being the remainder of the race.  If it happened now it would lend more credence to a Romney defeat.  In two months, not so much.

Based on four factors, a re-think of how to view the race is necessary.  At least, for me it's necessary.

Southern Tuesday Primary Results

In a short time, Alabama and Mississippi primary results will start being reported.  My prediction is that both states will be wins for Gingrich and both states will be close.  Mississippi should be an easier win for Gingrich, he should take the state by a couple of percent.  That's close, but Alabama is likely to be as close as a few hundred votes.  Romney could even surprise for first place.

Then again, that very threat could sway a few Santorum supporters to vote for Gingrich instead to prevent a momentum builder for Romney in a southern state.  If Gingrich doesn't win in both states he's done, despite his intention to stay in.  Tonight should be interesting.

Post Super Tuesday - What's Next? Newt.

To the bitter end.

Newt Gingrich won one state yesterday.  His home state.  True, it's a lot of delegates and a big prize.  But it really does very little to help his case that he's a viable candidate.  Had he won Tennessee or Oklahoma it would have helped but he still could be seen as a regional candidate.  He needed to win Georgia  but that was the lowest possible place to set the bar.  He needed more to energize his campaign properly.  It really would have helped if he'd won a non-regional state - Alaska or Vermont perhaps.  But whether he could have or not, he didn't.  So what's next in the race becomes entirely dependent on Newt.

Super Tuesday Winners Ahead of Time

Not exciting.

I'm not all that excited about Super Tuesday because it could turn out to be the Romney show and guarantee his nomination.  I still believe he is the antithetical candidate for a Republican win against Obama in November.  Rich, out of touch and stiff, he'll be easy fodder for the Democrats to portray as a cardboard candidate without real values and without empathy.  He'll be demonized in the ceter, the same place Obama is trying to shore up his own credibility.  He's very, very vulnerable in November, and a Super Tuesday win for Romney is more likely than Santorum or Gingrich to seal the fate of the GOP chances of losing the presidency in 2012.

That is not an exciting prospect.  Super Tuesday has me as uninspired as a David Hasselhoff made for TV movie. It's not something I want to see, but because of all the hype, it's going to be on a bunch of channels.  Who knows, maybe the Germans will be excited about it.

All that said, here's how I see tomorrow playing out.

You can't stop the Romney?

Oops moments.

Apollo 440 had a very catchy song called "Can't Stop The Rock". It comes to mind when looking at the  state of the GOP nomination race and wondering whether Mitt Romney has become more inevitably the nominee than before?  Charles Krauthammer seems to think so, and he blames that eventuality (which I believe he actually prefers) squarely on Rick Santorum.  A few weeks ago I argued that by backing out of the additional pre-Super Tuesday debate Rick Santorum had chosen the right tactic (pulling out) for the wrong strategy (consolidating his Not Romney position).  

The Open Wound Paradigm

Imagine yourself out in a snowstorm or a lost in desert and you've somehow just suffered a bad cut on your leg.    You are bleeding pretty badly and you need to stop the flow of blood.  You don't have a hospital, medical equipment or even gauze bandages.  You do however have an extra shirt that you can cut into strips and use as a makeshift bandage.  It likely won't stop the flow of blood entirely but it will slow it significantly.  In fact, it will stem the flow of blood enough that you will be able to continue on towards civilization which will allow you to get proper medical attention.  The alternative is the risk of simply bleeding to death.

Quick predictions on Michigan and Arizona

Seeing as the two primaries are today and once again I'm too busy to do an in-depth analysis, let me go on record as predicting that Romney wins Arizona by a comfortable margin and that he will also win Michigan by a handful of votes that once certified might turn out flipping to Rick Santorum just like Iowa did.

Just a hunch on that last point.

Post Debate Thoughts

Next debate: Bean bag chairs.

Unorganized, here's a stream-of-consciousness series of thoughts on the final GOP debate before Super Tuesday.

The audience in every Romney - Santorum exchange early on seemed to be members of Mitt Romney's immediate family.  Those tense exchanges made Santorum look underwhelming and made Romney look arrogant and unfriendly.  Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul probably benefited by staying out of the way and letting that train wreck happen on its own.  But when they spoke later on both Gingrich and Paul came across well.  Gingrich was the most statesmanlike.  He also had some clear and well-spoken points.  He won the debate, but he did not dominate.  He just did well, while Santorum and Romney came across poorly.

CNN Debate tonight - do or die?

Tonight's debate is especially important for each candidate as it could shape the next portion of the race, including Super Tuesday.  It's the last debate before that delegate deluge. For Mitt Romney, it's his chance to re-emerge in Arizona and Michigan.  If he loses in Michigan, by many accounts, the establishment will bail on him.  That sounds like mission critical stuff if it is true.  For Rick Santorum, attacks have been dredged, or Drudged up against him that makes this debate important for him to establish his credibility and electability.  And for Newt Gingrich, this may be his last chance to mount a last surge with a strong, positive debate performance.  For Ron Paul - this may be a rare chance to come across better on foreign relations, which is where he most lacks credibility with the Republican mainstream.

The debate may have higher ratings than previous debates I suspect, because of partisan interest and because with growing news coverage of the Republican contests, more people will be tuning in for the first time.  That makes this debate all the more critical.  Sadly, given the high expectations and the pressure to perform, I suspect 2 if not 3 of the contenders to falter.  Ron Paul, with the least pressure to exceed expectations, has the best chance of performing well, depending on the lines of questioning.  We shall see.  It should be lively.

Drudge: Déjà vu all over again

Remember when Newt Gingrich was peaking in the polls and a panicked establishment threw everything they could at Newt to make sure Mitt Romney was the winner of the Republican nomination for president?  Do you recall Matt Drudge, long a conservative news source being preeminent among Gingrich's attackers? No?  Below is a quick reminder of what happened to Gingrich, because it's started to happen again to Rick Santorum.

Drudge: Casting any and all contenders in an unfriendly light. This time, Santorum.

The right tactical move but bad strategy

Different time frame, but same principal.

Mitt Romney backed out of the CNN debate just prior to Super Tuesday (which is on March 6th). He was followed by Ron Paul and Rick Santorum in a move clearly designed not to let Newt Gingrich back into the race just prior to a mass of delegates being allocated by voters.

Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum decided to skip the March 1 debate that was to be co-hosted by CNN and the Georgia and Ohio state Republican parties, their campaigns confirmed Thursday.

CNN decided to cancel the debate after being left with a single confirmation, Newt Gingrich, who would have been left to square off solo with moderator John King. Gingrich’s camp is unlikely to be happy with the turn of events as the former House speaker has used the nationally televised spectacles to savage the media and twice revive his lagging campaign.

It was the right tactical move for that objective. After all, Newt clearly has the best debate skill of the bunch. But for at least two of the candidates, it was the wrong strategic objective.