Meanwhile in Virginia

If you go so far left you run nutjobs for public office, you're gonna lose:

Inconceivable!

Unintended Consequences of the Charlie Kirk assassination have been affecting the left, and it's not just firings for celebrations. Evil is starting to be recognized for what it is and voters are making changes.

Trump surging in...Virginia???

Expand. The. Map.

Bloodbath for Democrats

 Now it's time to shine. Virginia proved to be a sweep for Republicans:

Glenn Youngkin saves the day. The gubernatorial candidate bested Democrat Terry McAuliffe in yesterday’s elections in the Old Dominion. The GOP dominated the state, clinching all three statewide officed. Youngkin clinched the governor’s win. Jason Miyares is our new attorney general. And Winsome Sears is our lieutenant governor. She’s the first black woman to occupy the office. The House of Delegates also flipped 51-49.

Meanwhile In New Jersey, as of this posting Republican upstart, longshot candidate for governor, Jack Ciattarelli holds a very slim lead over Democrat incumbent Phil Murphy.  This was a state that guy (Brandon) carried in 2020 by double digits. Of course every vote is not counted and surely some will be counted twice, so there's that.

Make no mistake though (although the Democrats most likely will), this is a foreshadowing of the 2022 midterm elections, provided Democrats do not change course.  The Democrats tried to make the Virginia election about president Trump. They failed. It appears they are going to make the defeat about president Trump (aka RACISM!!!) as well. If they fail to learn the lesson and swallow their own Kool Aid, 2022 could end up worse than the shellacking they took in 2010. History repeating no doubt.  Democrats could learn from this. Prior to that 2010 bloodbath, in 2009 Republican Bob McDonnell upset Democrat favorite Craig Deeds.  And in New Jersey, Chris Christie upset heavy favorite Jon Corzine.

I don't believe Democrats are capable of doing anything as far as strategy anymore other than doubling down.  There's a limit of course as to how much the GOP can win, but 2022 may in fact hit that limit at this rate. 

Virginia, the fix is in

An article in left-leaning Politico today is trying to nationalize the result of the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial election, and by proxy, all elections.  Perhaps they think it's a winning strategy for the left to make every election about federal politics.  The far left has been in lockstep with voting Democrat for a long time.  Nationalizing the race might actually be a boon to the right instead.  Unless the fix is in and they know that far left governor Terry McAuliffe is going to win, allowing them to make national claims about the election result.

We don’t need to wait until the results are in, however, to draw one clear conclusion from this contest. It will or should deal another decisive blow to one of the most enduring, least useful observations about American elections: “All politics is local.”

Oh really? Why would this election prove that?  Based on what evidence? The article glosses over specifics to jump straight to this numeric observation: 

Presidential elections have almost always been driven by broader factors than local matters: war, inflation, recession, domestic upheaval, corruption. Over the last decade or two, the drift — more like a surge — toward political polarization has seen the steady disappearance of split ticket voting, where a personally admirable candidate of one party could win the votes from those who identify with another party. In 2020, only one Senate candidate, Maine Republican Susan Collins, won in a state carried by the other party’s presidential nominee. A decade ago, 23 senators came from states that had voted for the other party’s presidential candidate. Today, the number is six.

That doesn't speak to nationalization of elections, it speaks to geographic polarization, or coincidence, or possibly an alignment of local politics with federal politics.  It does not mean people will vote for governor or mayor based on who is president or who controls congress. At least not on a 1:1 ratio.

Of course there have been other reasons to want this race nationalized.  McAuliffe has been as disastrous as  a candidate as he has been as a governor.  They've been bringing in the big guns like Obama and Biden to try to nationalize this race, and they've tried to often as possible mention president Trump.  It's a distraction from McAuliffe's bungled approach to schools and parents wanting to have a say in what their children are being taught.

Should McAuliffe lose, you can bet just as quickly they will at least publicly start saying it was his issue, not about a national referendum on Biden.  Even if they believe that it actually was.  Nationalizing it is just a talking point as of today.  But it is also possible the fix is in and they are saying it's a national referendum because they are going to make sure they get the result they want.

MUST READ: Virginia Democrats call on Lt. Governor to resign - it's a set up!

Virginia's state Democrats are trying to save their control of the state in the face a three scandals involving the state's top Democrats.  Virginia's top 3 political figures, all Democrats, have all been implicated in either sexual or racial scandals.  Here's a quick breakdown:

Virginia Democrats have called on the African American Lt. Governor to resign, but not the white Governor. Conservatives have rightly seized on the inherent racism of those calls but they have overlooked the real problem. It's a set up.

If all three Democrat politicians were to resign, all three positions would be appointed by the Republican state legislature, thereby flipping the state to a Republican controlled state.

Here's the trap: that's only true if all three resign at the same time.  The Democrats however, by only calling on the Lt. Governor to resign are plotting for the governor to appoint a new Lt. Governor, free of scandal, before having to step down himself, thereby insulating themselves from losing control of the governorship. Then, when the inevitable does happen and all three of the scandal-plagued politicos are gone, a Democrat will still be in power due to the appointment and he or she can refill the other positions with more Democrats.

It's cynical. It's calculated and deliberate. It's being overlooked.  A triple impeachment should be on the Virginia state assembly agenda or more Democrats will be replace the disgraced trio and nothing will change.

Midterms Matter: In Virginia 2nd, please support Scott Taylor

In 2016, Scott Taylor defeated a 16-year incumbent Republican in an open seat primary election in Virginia’s Second District. Scott won the general election with 62% of the vote and in January 2017, he was sworn-in to the U.S. House of Representatives representing Virginia’s 2nd District.  The House Republican Steering Committee appointed Scott to the House Appropriations Committee. He is the only freshman Member of Congress appointed to an ‘A’ committee.  This year he is up for re-election.

The race in this district has seemingly tightened in October, and Scott Taylor needs your support - donate, check out his website, and please make sure you vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In Virginia 10, please support Barbara Comstock

Virginia 10 has seen a lot of polls for a congressional race.  A lot - 5 polls since late September.  In every poll the Democrat has a lead over the Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock.  Because there is a general consistency the Democrat appears to have about a 7 point lead by my interpretation.  But this district is still winnable for Comstock, who has worked to achieve and delivered real results for Virginians, her proven record matters.

She boasts an impressive resume and has a nose for what really matters:

Congresswoman Comstock – the only woman in the Virginia Congressional Delegation – has been fighting for our families, our businesses, our communities, our military and our veterans – and getting results: Historic Tax Cuts; Rebuilding our Military; A New Veterans Center in the Heart of the 10th District; Support for Battling Opioid and Heroin Addiction; Passing Legislation to Crack down on MS-13 gangs and Fund Community Policing; Confronting Sexual Harassment in the workplace and passing legislation to protect women and victims.

Her opponent has some truly radical supporters.   That's because she holds some truly outlandish positions that will hurt, not help Virginians.

This is another game-changing race that needs common sense voters to turn out and surprise the liberal establishment with a win for common sense Comstock. She really needs your support to win this. So please support her efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out her positions on her website. And by all means - vote to keep this district Republican for at least two more years.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In Virginia's 5th district, please support Denver Riggleman

In Denver's 5th congressional district there's a choice of a conservative representative or a truly radical Democrat who is frighteningly out of touch with not only centrist values but also common sense.  Denver Riggleman is a solid candidate.  His opponent, Leslie Cockburn is a former 60 Minutes producer with a history of radical positions (including anti-Semitism, and dictator friendships - no kidding). 

Since she was a 60 Minutes producer, it's not surprising that she's not even attempting to be honest.

This is serious.  She's a radical;

The Democrat, who is running to represent the Fifth Congressional District of Virginia in Congress, deployed every attack in the progressive playbook to disparage President Trump in an interview with the far-left magazine Vanity Fair describing why she decided to launch her candidacy.

Cockburn accused the President of “shredding” democratic institutions, compared him to the “oligarchs and kleptocrats” at the helm of despotic regimes around the world and portrayed him as an existential threat to journalists such as herself.

Of all the candidates in this year’s midterms, Cockburn may have the least in common with her would-be constituents — she recounts being advised to run as a “progressive” and avoid being “middle of the road,” yet the Fifth District turned out heavily for Republicans in 2016.

Asked whether she can prevail without winning back some of President Trump’s supporters, she dismissed the idea, saying, “I’m not going to woo those Trump supporters in the evangelical churches where people feel Democrats are satanic.”

She’s said that immigration enforcement is equivalent to running a “gulag” and “torturing children,” even asserting that ICE is “like our new Gestapo.”

Those are not the words of someone who wants to represent and work for the betterment of everyone in her district. They are the words of a hyper-partisan extremist who disdains basic civility because it conflicts with her black-and-white worldview.

Enough about why not to vote for Cockburn.  Denver Riggleman is a decorated Air Force veteran, business owner, and a common sense native Virginian.  The seat they are battling for is a considered a toss up.

Denver Riggleman has a lot of reasons to be the district's representative.  He deserves and needs your support to bring common sense to Washington D.C. instead of more special interest establishment insider.

Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote. 

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: For Virginia District 7, please support David Brat for Congress

David Brat is the one person in Congress who is absolutely necessary:

As the only Ph.D. economist in Congress, Dave Brat is uniquely qualified to tackle the current budget crisis we face in America. Serving on the House Budget Committee, and as a member of the House Freedom Caucus, Dave has been leading the charge in Congress for a more fiscally responsible budget process.

He is the only  Ph.D. economist in Congress! That alone means he should be involved in the fiscal budgeting process, where his insights are desperately needed.  But he also has on his resume, ethics and proven results.  He is exactly the type of person we need in Congress.  

Yet his race is tighter than it should be. He needs voter engagement from you because what he is working for are things that really matter.  Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website.  And by all means - vote.

Thank you.

What to make of yesterday's elections

Republican Ed Gillespie lost the Virginia gubernatorial election last night.  Democrats also won the governorship of New Jersey.  Denying there are danger signs is a head-in-the-sand approach. It's wrong-minded.  But so is the Chicken-Little, the-sky-is-falling panic.

Virginia is no longer a red state.  It may not even be a purple state.  President Trump did not win the state so having a losing governor run in a Trump presidential year, is not exceptionally surprising.  The other side of the coin is the congressional wins in Trump districts over the past 9 months or so.  The partisan divide, is holding.  

Not exactly. Maybe a little.

New Jersey was not going to elect a Republican governor.  There was a reaction to Chris Christie just as he was a reaction to his predecessor. New Jersey is a very blue state.  The New York mayor, who shall remain nameless, was re-elected as well.  Republican mayors of the ultra-liberal city are the anomaly.  So this is not a terrible time for Republicans.

Where there should be some concern among conservatives, is the enthusiasm among Democrats and the potential for an enthusiasm momentum.  The left has traded on impeach Trump vitriol for a year.  That level of anger is just not sustainable.  Real momentum requires victories and it requires something to be hopeful about.  That's what not what birthed, but rather carried the Tea Party movement through  the Obama years.

Countering the liberal momentum what do the Republicans have?  No major legislative victories.  No Obamacare repeal. No tax reform.  They have to counter it and legislatively waited too long.  That is not to say that the Republicans are not on the timeline they originally proclaimed for tax reform (late 2017).  The impact in voter pocketbooks needs to be felt.  The impact on the economy needs to be felt, the momentum of it needs to be felt prior to November 2018.

So what to make of the elections? The Republicans have some issues to address.  Predominantly the issues is lethargy.  They need to move faster.  They need to deliver.  It's something pundits on the right side of the blogosphere, myself included, have been harping on since about March. The GOP may have had their heads in the sand on president Trump for the last 10 months, but many are starting to figure it out. They need tax reform, they need it now, and they need it to not be the last thing they do before the midterm elections.

Ed Gillespie for Virginia

If you haven't voted in Virginia, consider Ed Gillespie.

Virginia: Ed Gillespie has a shot

This race wasn`t supposed to be close.  Ed Gillespie trailed Warner by 20 points at one point.  It`s down to single digits and he`s done it without financial help from the GOP.  He`s a better choice than Warner and Gillespie could really use your vote.  He`s got the potential to be a great senator for the state of Virginia.

There`s Mark Warner:



Then there`s Ed Gillespie:

Virginia: Gillespie's outside chance moving inside

Via Fox News:

Republican Ed Gillespie is making a tight race out of his ambitious plan to defeat Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, slicing deep into the incumbent’s lead in the final days to re-emerge as a player in the GOP set piece to take the Senate.

By some accounts, Gillespie, a former Bush White House staffer and Republican National Committee chairman, has already done his job by forcing Democrats and their supporters to keep spending money on an expected victory, instead of on the handful of other Senate races that they desperately need to retain control of the upper chamber.

But with 10 days to go before Election Day, Gillespie, who according to a recent poll has cut the lead to single digits, feels confident about winning and is in no mood to declare a moral victory for what Washington war room strategists refer to as “expanding the playing field.”

The big 'aha' moment for those of us outside of Virginia comes late in the Fox story - popular incumbent Democrat Warner is struggling in light of a recent revelation that's been a big deal in Virginia.

...the race could now be even tighter, following revelations in mid-October about Warner allegedly discussing a federal judgeship for a supporter in an effort to keep her father from quitting the state Senate and giving Republicans the majority.

Bell said the allegation, largely overlooked by the national media, is a big deal among Virginia voters, though no public polls have been released since it surfaced.

“It’s a big issue,” Gillespie said. “It’s deeply troubling that Mark Warner would play politics with an appointment to a federal bench. Something happened to Mark Warner on his way to Capitol Hill.”

Is that enough to actually put Virginia in play? Perhaps it is. Perhaps this race could now be inside of 5%. Maybe even 3% (i.e. the typical polling margin of error). Let's hope it's a big upset on election day.

Virginia: Give Gillespie a chance to work for you

Virginia has an affinity for the name Warner.  But senator Mark Warner, who has cultivated an image as being a bi-partisan moderate, has voted with president Obama 97% of the time.  That's a party line liberal voting record and not the sign of a moderate.  If anyone argues that president Obama has been right 97% of the time, they are as partisan as anyone who claims Obama has been wrong 97% of the time. (In reality the president has only been wrong 95.4% of the time).

This race was supposed to be a cakewalk for Warner.  But Ed Gillespie has closed a 20 point polling gap down to 10 points and has momentum on his side.  Virginians who care about their state and are not blinded by name recognition and would like Virginia to be represented by someone who cares more about the state than ideology, should give Gillespie a chance.

Quick thoughts on current news - it's all bad.

My blog is still giving me a major headache.  I thought I had almost had it fixed and suddenly my slider is locking up. Arg! I hate blogger but I don't think any other platform would be without its own idiosyncrasies.  The battle to fix the site continues.

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Our less than illustrious leader, Toronto mayor Rob Ford has admitted to having used crack cocaine.  He's following in the not so proud footsteps of former D.C. mayor Marion Barry.  He's the butt of jokes around the world.  Yet he's the only conservative politician to have won the post in basically forever, and those who are loyal to his political aims, are stuck being embarrassed by him.  There's no other conservative candidate here on the horizon who can possibly win, and liberals, progressives and socialists are filled with glee at the notion that next year, they will be able to take the office back.  Ford could still win re-election as the conservative standard bearer, but he's nobody's first choice.

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Speaking of standard bearers, how does it feel in the U.S. as a conservative to be faced with the prospect of Chris Christie, noted RINO by many, as your conservative standard bearer? His win for governor of New Jersey was truly mammoth (pardon the weighty pun).  His odds of being the GOP nominee for president in 2016 were to say the least, not hurt yesterday.  Liberals are probably thrilled at the prospect of a Christie nomination as they believe he cannot beat Hillary Clinton head-to-head in 2016.  They may be right.

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In that vein, I'll be taking a detailed look at handicapping the GOP race for president in 2016 soon.  I did so early on in the race for 2012 (back in 2010).  It was somewhat off-base in terms of who ended up running, but it was not without its merits.  Plus, it's fun to think about a brighter, less socialist future from time to time.

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More socialist, meanwhile is Virginia, which narrowly elected Terry McAuliffe to be its new governor.  I hate to say I told you so on this one but I just could not see Ken Cuccinelli catching up in time for election day.  Despite a massive disadvantage in spending he almost closed the gap.  But in the end, the Democrat McAuliffe still won.  He's a Clinton loyalist, and an Obamacare proponent.  Geographically, most of the state went red, but the urban northeast districts were enough to drag McAuliffe across the finish line.  By all rights he should have swamped Cuccinelli.  that he didn't should be a silver lining for conservatives, but really, it's not.  A win is a win and a loss is a loss.  Let's not be the Bad News Bears and settle for losing.

Random news item thoughts for election day

It's election day and there are some high profile items worth mentioning in passing as I struggle to keep up with the news cycle.  Here are some quick hits.

Chris Christie is expected to romp to a wide-margin victory today and be re-elected as a Republican governor in liberal New Jersey.  A lot has been made of his less-than-perfect-conservative decisioning on many items, and whether he could win a GOP nomination for president in 2016.  He could have enough cross-over appeal to be able to beat a Hillary Clinton in 2016.  But is just winning the presidency enough for conservatives?  It's like trying to decide between prune juice and beet juice.

 

Sean Trende does his usual excellent job in breaking down the significance of a big Christie victory.  For handicappers, it's an excellent read.

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Virginian could be an upset GOP win and liberal Terry McAuliffe, Clinton ally, could end up not being the next governor there.  It's a long shot.  But noted libertarian star Ron Paul, is urging Virginia libertarians to not vote libertarian, and that could help.  There's a man with some bigger picture understanding.

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Speaking of Virginia, here's Republican Cuccinelli's campaign in 60 seconds , via Politico;

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The GOP are finally prepared to step aside and let Obamacare implode under it's own Byzantine web and the weight of it's implausibility.  Good.  They can argue in 2016 (it may be too early in the process to impact 2014 midterm elections) that they fought tooth and nail to overturn the behemoth and finally could no longer fight it and now the country is reaping when it sewed.  If Obamacare turns out to be half of the disaster we expect it to be, then it will be an effective campaign for president, congressional candiates and senate candidates from the GOP.  Politically it's a good move.  Of course Obamacare is going to continue to be an albatross around the neck of the country until it is gone, but hopefully that remains only a short term issue.

 

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Apparently environmentalism causes amnesia.  It also causes alarmist hysteria, unneeded depression, false anxiety and leads to a tenuous grasp on the reality of facts.  But hey, it sells to suckers and that's all that matters if you are looking for another government grant for your scientific study.

 

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The talk of Hillary's demise on the left, is premature.  She will run, she will secure the Democratic nomination and still has a very viable shot at the presidency (sadly).  She is certainly beatable, but her favorability ratings tumble has more to do with her being out of the public eye than it has to do with voters not liking her any less.  Evidence exists in that her unfavorability numbers are basically unchanged.

 

Back again - assorted quick hits



Quick hits eye candy?



I haven't had a chance to blog in a few days and I missed it.  I'm back again today playing catch up.  Be prepared for some quick hits type thoughts and not detailed essays today.

 

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The Virginia governor election is tomorrow.  There's talk that Terry McAuliffe, the Clinton ally Democratic nominee is reportedly tanking in the waning days of the campaign and Republican nominee could steal the election from the heavily favored Democrat.  As much as I'd love to believe that, I don't buy it.  We were told by many pollsters that Mitt Romney was going become president in 2012.  He not only lost, he lost dramatically.  Until I see a win, I'm not counting it.  If the election were to be held in another 2-3 weeks, I'd be willing to believe that McAuliffe could fall far enough fast enough to secure a GOP win.  Right now, I'm more than skeptical.

 

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All politics is local.  That does not change.  Tea Party supporters who believe that we should run ultra-conservative candidates in Vermont because it's the right thing to do, miss the point that politics is a long haul game.  You can't win it in a single election.  Liberal Democrats took decades to get the country into the mess it is in today and it can be fixed all at once because people's perceptions about right and wrong took decades to change in sufficient numbers and will take a similar amount of time to change back.  But Tea Party supporters aren't alone in their desire to be right about conservatives winning elections.  Liberalesque Chris Christie believes he knows better than the GOP how to win elections.  Tactically, he may have some credibility.  The problem with his notion is that while it may work in New Jersey, that same logic may not apply in Alabama.  All politics is local is still true.  Just like 50 different states can come up with better, more specific solutions to needs than a one size fits all solution (like for healthcare) winning elections takes effort at as local a level as possible.  Obama won in 2012 by taking the approach that an individual is as local as you can get.  They used regression models to target the most likely unlikely voters.  The future of elections borrows from the past.

 

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With cratering public approval the Obama presidency has entered it's waning phase, also known as lame duck status.  Or has it?  Adding to the NSA spying scandal (clearly first among the plague of Obama scandals), the Obamacare website woes, and the shattering illusion of keeping your coverage and keeping your doctor under Obamacare have hit the president's job approval hard.  He's at 40% popularity.  Liberal satirists don't mind poking him now and again lately.  They are preparing to turn their attention to electing Hillary Clinton in 2016.  But the president understands that he's no lame duck.  The polls that counted have already happened in 2008 and 2012.  Yes his influence is waning but he's no lame duck.  He's got court justices to appoint.  He's got an agenda to try to fulfil.  He's got executive orders, and vetoes and pardons to dispense.  He's got fundraisers and speeches he can use to try to continue to shape public opinion in 2014, and 2016 and indeed beyond.  Wait until liberals have an Obama legacy to canonize - he'll be in vogue again in 2017.  And he can clearly still continue to have an impact on America until at least 2016.  Sadly for the country the impact is a very negative one, even if not all voters realize it yet.

Predicting the Election Outcome

This is really a weird year in terms of convergence of views on the outcome of the presidential election.  Polls are all over the place - from the differences between sample skews to the differences between the state polls and national polls, the lack of consistency points to a wide range of potential outcomes.  I've never looked at an election with as much optimism and trepidation at the same time.

Romney Ad Blitz - Virginia Edition

Virginia I believe, will go Republican this cycle, and it won't be as close as the polls indicate.  Following the end of the DNC convention, Romney won't allow the Obama bounce - if there is one - to take hold in swing states like Virginia.  It's a good, targeted strategy. Here's the Virginia ad opener.