"A priest, a rabbi and a comedian walk into a YouTube studio..."

 A discussion on spirituality between David Rubin, Bishop Robert Barron and Rabbi David Wolpe:

Ben Shapiro talks with Bishop Robert Barron

 Rational discourse, how to arrive at God, and the Catholic church of today. 

In case you forgot what he said in 2018

Paul Joseph Watson pointed out how God awful Portland was.  Except now it's worse.  Way worse in fact.

Obama administration held 100k children in detention in 2015

According to the U.N., Obama was the worst - at least for detention of alien children.  By comparison, in 2018 that number had been reduced from 100,000 to 15,000 under president Trump.  Many will claim this is fake news but the U.N. report, is real.

ABC News caught lying about president Trump's position on the shutdown and wall

ABC News, like CNN, is fake news.  By fake news I am using it as shorthand for not factual, just the way the media malformed the term alt-right to equate to Nazis (who by nature are socialists, therefore anathema to conservative positions). 

Watch this video and tell me truthfully that you don't see any ill-intent in the news piece discussed.  And if you truly believe that, then you have to admit at least, that these journalists are really, really incompetent.  If you the believe the latter, that too should raise alarm bells for you.

How can you make smart decisions when you are badly (and in all likelihood, deliberately) misinformed?

Parsing the president on the border wall

A lot of conservatives are distraught that the president is sounding like he's caving on the border wall.  There has been indication that he might cave.  Last time he caved on something he said he would never sign bad legislation again.  But he's seemingly been very bi-partisan in lame duck legislation signing so far this year. He's even been conciliatory, at times.  But seemingly he's going to capitulate now.

But less than an hour ago the president tweeted this:

The Democrats, who know Steel Slats (Wall) are necessary for Border Security, are putting politics over Country. What they are just beginning to realize is that I will not sign any of their legislation, including infrastructure, unless it has perfect Border Security. U.S.A. WINS!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 20, 2018

Seems like even though Mitch McConnell caved in the senate, the president will not sign a continuing resolution to keep the partial government shut down from happening until at least February (when the Democrats will control congress).  I don't get McConnell except to say that clearly border security is not a priority for him.  But you'd think since he's supposedly a shrewd political tactician he'd understand the value of a win, the value of the base and the value of using the lame duck session to maximize what Republicans can achieve over the next two years.  Apparently not.

But look back at what the president just tweeted.  It seems when he says "sign any of their legislation" he is referring yo Democrat legislation, not what Mitch McConnell just passed.  That's a possible interpretation.

If that's the case, the president could be gearing up for 2020 as a referendum on the feckless, fake border security stance of Democrats.  It's a good issue for him.  But it relies on border security voters not caring or forgetting that he did not stand up to feckless, fake border security Republicans this year.  That might turn out to be a political miscalculation by the president, not his first, but by far his most egregious. 

It could be some other calculus, but if that's the case, I cannot see the angle.  Then again, perhaps the president will indeed veto the legislation.  That would be a sign to his supporters that he has not given up the fight, and what we are seeing is just tactics with some design.

Time will tell.

Well, Theresa May survived

British Prime Minister Theresa May has just survived a no-confidence vote among conservatives to remain Prime Minister.  This despite delivering such a weak-tea effete deal for Great Britain that those who voted to exit the European Union are probably having second thoughts now.

I'm not sure she will survive politically though, and she seems to realize that too.

Prison reform. But why?

This via CNBC:

The new bipartisan criminal justice reform bill backed by President Donald Trump could reduce thousands of sentences and save the federal government millions of dollars in incarceration costs.

Yet even with broad support and modest goals — it would affect only federal prisoners, a tiny slice of the nation's overall prison population — the bill known as the First Step Act is at risk of stalling in Congress.

At an event at the White House last week, Trump announced his intention to sign the bill, which his daughter and son-in-law, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, have both publicly endorsed and pushed forward in the administration.

"I'll be waiting with my pen," said the president, who noted that the bill would reverse some federal policies that "disproportionately affected the African-American community."

The goal is to pass it before a divided Congress takes office in January. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Trump last week that this is unlikely due to time constraints, according to a report by The New York Times.

What?  The Republicans have a lame duck congress for a few more weeks and a chance to finish off a number of legislative items before congress is turned over to Democrat control.  How about a wall? How about that second tax cut? How about anything else? Why prison reform?

I think I know. It's possible that the president sees this as a low hanging fruit item.  Think of what passing it would mean for the president;  because it disproportionately affects African Americans, it can only help his approval rating in that community.  

In addition he can say that he has always been willing to work with Democrats on common ground items.  That serves two purposes, it can deflect from claims he is a danger to democracy or it can serve as a counter-punch to all the threats of impeachment if they do get it signed; the president can point out that Democrats are willing to work with him at certain times and therefore he can not be this horrible evil (or that Democrats are just as evil).  That is all assuming the president expects it to get stalled prior to the new congress and gets taken up as soon as the house changes hands.

And maybe, it's just bait.  

Election results fallout - not my congress

Not all of the results of the 2018 midterms are in but there are some takeaways already.

The Democrats appear to have taken Congress, this is going to result in a blizzard of subpoenas on the president and absolute gridlock on legislation.  That's because Republicans expanded their lead in the Senate.

Some takeaways from that:

-Donald Trump is not the anti-Christ, he cannot induce winning at will. Yes, he wins a lot, but just like president Obama, not all the time, and his winning is not transferable.  Perhaps his winning is a little bit transferable, and definitely more transferable, but not as much as he'd like.  He is not infallible in winning elections.

-The electorate has become more polarized in large swaths of the country - Red districts becoming more red, and blue districts becoming more blue.

-2020 seems less safe today for the president than it did two weeks ago. The president and Republicans will have to continue to deliver on the economy and convince voters gridlock is Democrats fault as they have no real agenda.

-The president is now going to be tested. Can he get a wall built?  Can he get more tax cuts? Can he deal with Democrats in congress?  President Trump was really let down by Republicans during his first two years it is going to be felt during the next two years because nothing will get done, except for more Russia investigation.

-Republicans retain a majority of governorships but it has been reduced.  This also has implications for 2020, the census and future redistricting

-The polls and projections were, at the end, a lot less wrong than in 2016. Conservatives would do well to not disregard the polling implications completely as we have for the last two years.

-This is not the end of the world for conservatives.  Nevertheless, wouldn't it not feel great to march in the streets shouting  "NOT MY CONGRESS!" ? Not that we will, we're more mature than that.

Before you vote, realize this.

Midterms Matter: Governor Roundup, don't forget

In state governorships and statehouses, this election cycle is extremely critical.  That's because those elected now, will impact the next census in 2020.  It will impact redistricting and that will impact future federal elections. Now is the time to not only impact the midterms, but to impact future midterms as well.  Vote straight Republican tickets, even if you are not thrilled with local candidates - that's how important this election cycle is.

That's not to say there are not some great candidates in the statewide elections this year.  Here are some governor candidates that really deserve your support to whom I'd like to draw your attention.  Some of these races are very close. All of them are critical. These are all important elected offices, and don't forget to also vote for the Republican candidates in your local state houses as well.

Florida: Please turn out to support Ron DeSantis.

Georgia: Please turn out to support Brian Kemp.

Iowa: Please turn out to support Kim Reynolds.

Wisconsin: Please turn out to support Scott Walker.

Ohio: Please turn out to support Mike DeWine.

Kansas: Please turn out to support Kris Kobach.

Nevada: Please turn out to support Adam Laxlt.

Arizona: Please turn out to support Doug Ducey.

Oklahoma: Please turn out to support Kevin Stitt.

Oregon: Please turn out to support Knute Buehler.

Colorado: Please turn out to support Walker Stapleton.

Maine: Please turn out to support Shawn Moody.

Michigan: Please turn out to support Bill Schuette.

Minnesota: Please turn out to support Jeff Johnson.

New Mexico: Please turn out to support Steve Pearce.

Rhode Island: Please turn out to support Allan Fung.

Connecticut: Please turn out to support Bob Stefanowski.

Illinois: Please turn out to support Bruce Rauner.

Pennsylvania: Please turn out to support Scott Wagner.

Your support matters. Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In New Mexico 1st District, please support Janice Arnold-Jones

For Pete's sake, New Mexico 1st district, DO NOT send self-serving corruptocrat Deb Haaland back to Washington as your congressional representative - especially given the quality alternative that is available in Janice Arnold-Jones..

Deb Halland is running on her heritage, even as she disgraces it:

But it gets worse. She's a self-serving representative to the point where she is burying complaints because she doesn't like the implications.

Janice Arnold-Jones offers a better option for the state.  Please support Janice Arnold-Jones for congress. Check out her website for more information.  Volunteer, donate and vote for her on election day.

Midterms Matter: In Oregon's 5th District please support Mark Callahan

Oregon's 5th district is a foregone conclusion according to experts.  But experts don't vote in local elections.  Experts don't look at the qualities of the candidates, they only look at polls.  That's a shame because if they looked at the qualities in Oregon 5, a few things would become clear to them.

Firstly, and most importantly, Mark Callahan cares. Mark has deep Christian roots and was taught early in his life that his word is his bond. Mark believes that one needs to have honor, integrity, decency, humility, and character to serve the American people. He's running against a self-serving incumbent who does not share those values and does not care about his state.

Mark's opponent has been hit by embarrassment after conflict-of-interest-scandal after conflict-of-interest-scandal.  He's out for himself, not Oregon.

Make no mistake, Mark Callahan is an underdog in this race, but he can win if voters care enough about their state.  But to win, he needs your help.  There is still time to donate, to volunteer and to check out his stance on the issues at his website.  And most importantly, there is time still to vote.  Please support Mark.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In California 24, please support Justin Fareed

In California's 24th congressional district, results matter.  Proper representation matters.  Justin Fareed is not a career politician.  He's a hard worker. He's a visionary.  He's a fighter.

He knows taxes are just too high.

He's not a politician, he's a local man with the same values as California.  He's no do-nothing, careerist politician like his establishment lackey opponent.  Justin Fareed's common sense pragmatism is in line with voters' values.  But to represent the district, he needs your help to the finish line in this tight race.  Please support his efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out his positions on his website. And by all means - vote. 

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In West Virginia 3rd District please support Carol Miller

Carol Miller is defending her congressional seat in West Virginia's 3rd district against a pretty radical opponent.  She's leading in most polls, as she should be - but every vote matters.  Carol Miller puts West Virginia first.

Her opponent is a radical leftist but still an establishment kind of guy.  Why?  Because the liberal establishment is just as radical as they are corrupt.

Carol Miller needs your support to counter the radical leftist agenda her opponent supports, and to provide meaningful and purposeful representation in the district.  Please support her efforts; volunteer, donate or at least check out her positions on her website. And by all means - vote. 

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In Ohio 12th District, please support Troy Balderson

Ohio 12 is likely going to re-elect Troy Balderson on November 6th.  But every vote matters, just as what Troy Balderson stands for matters.  Just as solving problems matters.

Please support Troy Balderon in this election; donate, volunteer and check out his website. Most importantly, by all means vote.

Thank you.

Midterms Matter: In New York 11th District, please support Daniel Donovan

Republican incumbent Daniel Donovan in New York's 11th District as of late October was holding onto a slim lead over his Democrat opponent that was just outside the poll's margin of error.  In other words, this looks like a close race.  If you are a conservative, common sense, America first voter on Staten Island, please support Dan Donovan for congress.

America needs more of this:

and more of this


...and America needs less of this covert progressivism:

Republican hold in congress?

The Economist indicated today that Democrats would need to have a lead on the generic congressional ballot of about 7% to take control of Congress.  That is because of factors like clustering and such, which are explained in the video link above.  Anything short of 7% and the Republicans probably maintain control of the House. Let's take that analysis at face value. What the upcoming midterm elections hold is not clear. However, what is certain to me, is that there is not going to be a big Blue Wave.

I looked at the polls taken in 2018, month by month (based on the final polling date of a given poll), of only polls where likely voters are questioned.  That's because polls of all adults or registered voters tend to be misleading. Also rather than applying a flat average, I use a weighted average as some polls are three times the size of others and therefore carry a different level of statistical significance, margin of error etc. 

Here's what I see:

In October, the lead for Democrats is only 6 points.  That's close to the 7% they'll need to win the House.  And what appears better for Democrats is that this is an increasing percentage over the last 3 months.  But as a conservative I'm not worried, because this analysis does not even look at voter crosstabs and weightings between Democrats/Independents/Republicans.  And the methodology of determining likely voters can vary from poll to poll too.

In aggregate, the RealClearPolitics averages are not unimportant however, because they can be directionally indicative.   

I dove a little further.  It looks like Democrat-favorable polls peaked in the immediately prior buildup and immediate wake of the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation on October 6th.

Furthermore there's an NBC/Marist poll putting Democrats at +9.  I discounted that source in 2016 in the presidential elections for good reason, and I'm inclined to do the same her.  On the Republican favoring side, Rasmussen has Democrats only at +3. If you exclude those 3 (and I'm almost ready to hop back on the Rasmussen bandwagon, but for now, I'll hold off), that leaves just one poll in late October mattering. Reuters/Ipsos has Democrats +7.

Right now it looks close, but there's still a week left and there are a few polls left to come in that will probably be much more relevant.  But if I were a betting man, right now I'd predict a stalemate, with Democrats making some gains but not quite enough to take the House.

That's not my final prediction just yet, but at this point there sure does not look like a 35 to 40 seat gain Blue Wave in the House to me.

Midterms Matter: In North Carolina 13th District , please support Ted Budd

North Carolina's 13th district is a generally Republican district but you can never take other voters for granted.  Incumbent Republican Ted Budd has led in the polls, but that doesn't mean he will win, if every common sense conservative in the district expects other voters to do the lifting of showing up to vote.

Ted didn't do that and neither should you.

Please vote for Ted Budd on November 16th.

Midterms Matter: In Michigan 7th District, please support Tim Walberg

There's been no polling I can find in Michigan 7, where incumbent Republican Tim Walberg is defending his seat in this Republican leaning congressional district.  Tim should win the district, given his track record but voters should not take that for granted.

Tim is fighting for real-world issues, whether they are politically popular or not.

Please vote for Tim Walberg on November 6th.