There is hope

There is hope for this world not continuing to exist on the edge of Armageddon. Here is Javier Milei not just talking truth in Argentina, delivering results as proof:

5 million more votes

I discussed this earlier, when the total votes advantage for Republicans in the midterms was just over 4 million.  Now it's 5 million.  Tim Pool and Dave Rubin share their takes.

It's not time to Wednesday morning quarterback

I'm shocked this morning. I'm not shocked not by the results (I was sort of expecting a tight Trump win) but by the weird shenanigans that happened last night and are probably continuing to occur this morning. Philadelphia Pennsylvania and Georgia stopped counting last night as one example. But here are some quick observations:

(1) With a roughly 700,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania and about 1.4 million votes outstanding, I cannot see any path for Biden to win. In order to make up that gap he would need to win 1 million and 50,000 of those votes to Trumps 350,000. That's a 75% ratio.

(2) Fox called Arizona very prematurely.  No one else has called the state.  Most of the outstanding votes are from election day voting, which clearly favors Trump.

(3) North Carolina with 95% of votes reported is not called for Trump. He has a 77,000 vote lead. It will likely shrink but Trump should still win. If Fox was willing to call Arizona already, why not?

(4) Trump is leading still in Michigan, narrowly and trailing in Wisconsin, narrowly. Also, surprisingly, he's trailing Nevada only narrowly.

(5) Trump is leading Georgia 104,000 with 92% of the vote called.

(6) Alaska is not called.  If Trump wins it, and it does not help in the overall victory strategy.

The path to victory for Trump is to win North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania and also one of those razor thin states of Nevada, Wisconsin or Michigan.  The latter seems the most promising so far.  I would expect, no matter what happens a lot of legal challenges from the side not declared the winner.

Election results fallout - not my congress

Not all of the results of the 2018 midterms are in but there are some takeaways already.

The Democrats appear to have taken Congress, this is going to result in a blizzard of subpoenas on the president and absolute gridlock on legislation.  That's because Republicans expanded their lead in the Senate.

Some takeaways from that:

-Donald Trump is not the anti-Christ, he cannot induce winning at will. Yes, he wins a lot, but just like president Obama, not all the time, and his winning is not transferable.  Perhaps his winning is a little bit transferable, and definitely more transferable, but not as much as he'd like.  He is not infallible in winning elections.

-The electorate has become more polarized in large swaths of the country - Red districts becoming more red, and blue districts becoming more blue.

-2020 seems less safe today for the president than it did two weeks ago. The president and Republicans will have to continue to deliver on the economy and convince voters gridlock is Democrats fault as they have no real agenda.

-The president is now going to be tested. Can he get a wall built?  Can he get more tax cuts? Can he deal with Democrats in congress?  President Trump was really let down by Republicans during his first two years it is going to be felt during the next two years because nothing will get done, except for more Russia investigation.

-Republicans retain a majority of governorships but it has been reduced.  This also has implications for 2020, the census and future redistricting

-The polls and projections were, at the end, a lot less wrong than in 2016. Conservatives would do well to not disregard the polling implications completely as we have for the last two years.

-This is not the end of the world for conservatives.  Nevertheless, wouldn't it not feel great to march in the streets shouting  "NOT MY CONGRESS!" ? Not that we will, we're more mature than that.

Midterms Matter: In Illinois' 14th district, support Randy Hultgren

Results matter.  Re-elect Randy Hultgren for congress. The race is listed a a toss-up and Hultren holds a few points lead in the latest poll.

Check out his website, volunteer, donate and VOTE!

Thanks you.

Dictator Watch - North Korea goes full nuke

While I'm starting out the year on a Dictator Watch note, I might as well comment on the North Korea has the bomb and the rocketry to hit anywhere in America situation.  While some are again saying that president Trump has put the world closer to nuclear war than ever before, the hyperbole just does not stack up to scrutiny.  We've seen from the president before a methodology in staking out a tough initial bargaining position before a negotiation.  That is most certainly the same case in this instance.

Granted that concern might be part of a planned leak to frighten Kim Jong Un into a negotiation. That won't stop CNN from freaking out of course. And we don't know for sure at this point if Kim Jung Un is simply full of bluster himself.   However, even if the capabilities he claims to have are bogus, they are certainly not that far off from a future reality. That's my issue; there seems to be a fundamental lack of concern by many people in the media about a tinfoil hat leader of a rogue nation having nuclear capabilities that hold the potential to decimate an American city.  That's a situation that must be resolved and quickly.  The previous administration bungled the North Korea situation as badly as it did the Iranian issue.  This administration will get results, perhaps imperfect but positive, and it will be in stark contrast to the failure of the Obama administration.