Reblicans smartening up (finally)

Republicans using smart power, or rather, their limited power, smartly. They're tying non-citizen voting to a continuing resolution bill.  Smart. 

President Trump's televised address

Last night the president made a televised address and if I recall correctly this is the first time he's done it (I'm not including his State of The Nation speeches to congress).  Given the government partial shutdown over the impasse on the border wall, the administration must have felt there was some urgency to address the issue and share the president's side of the story. Otherwise the president could have remained with Twitter as the primary source of his arguments.

I've maintained that the president should be doing this type of address more often.  Yes, it's scripted which is not his forte.  It's also true that it gives the Democrats a last word rebuttal and the networks a chance to claim he's lying again (and yes that happened).  But it is an opportunity for the president to talk, unfiltered and uninterrupted by the media (I'm looking at you Fake Jim Acosta), and at 9 or so minutes, highly focused and specific.  It's a golden opportunity that's been underutilized by the president so far.

Maybe the president was holding this in reserve and had always planned on shifting the battlefront in order to keep Democrats and the media off balance.  That would be a smart reason for holding off.  You can see that when you see the response by Pelosi and Schumer who looked like a pair of aliens just discovering life on earth in their response.  Or perhaps, the president felt that by holding addresses in abeyance that when he does it, it carries added weight resulting from the rarity of it's use.  Both are good reasons, and even if it was just a preference for Twitter, the timeliness of the change serves both those points and does so in regards to probably his signature campaign issue.

Here's the president's address:

And how did the Democrats respond? With lies and a cringe-worthy lack of charisma and empathetic engagement.

I know a lot of people looking at that were thinking of the painting American Gothic, but in a comic vein, I see it more as this:

ABC News caught lying about president Trump's position on the shutdown and wall

ABC News, like CNN, is fake news.  By fake news I am using it as shorthand for not factual, just the way the media malformed the term alt-right to equate to Nazis (who by nature are socialists, therefore anathema to conservative positions). 

Watch this video and tell me truthfully that you don't see any ill-intent in the news piece discussed.  And if you truly believe that, then you have to admit at least, that these journalists are really, really incompetent.  If you the believe the latter, that too should raise alarm bells for you.

How can you make smart decisions when you are badly (and in all likelihood, deliberately) misinformed?

Parsing the president on the border wall

A lot of conservatives are distraught that the president is sounding like he's caving on the border wall.  There has been indication that he might cave.  Last time he caved on something he said he would never sign bad legislation again.  But he's seemingly been very bi-partisan in lame duck legislation signing so far this year. He's even been conciliatory, at times.  But seemingly he's going to capitulate now.

But less than an hour ago the president tweeted this:

The Democrats, who know Steel Slats (Wall) are necessary for Border Security, are putting politics over Country. What they are just beginning to realize is that I will not sign any of their legislation, including infrastructure, unless it has perfect Border Security. U.S.A. WINS!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 20, 2018

Seems like even though Mitch McConnell caved in the senate, the president will not sign a continuing resolution to keep the partial government shut down from happening until at least February (when the Democrats will control congress).  I don't get McConnell except to say that clearly border security is not a priority for him.  But you'd think since he's supposedly a shrewd political tactician he'd understand the value of a win, the value of the base and the value of using the lame duck session to maximize what Republicans can achieve over the next two years.  Apparently not.

But look back at what the president just tweeted.  It seems when he says "sign any of their legislation" he is referring yo Democrat legislation, not what Mitch McConnell just passed.  That's a possible interpretation.

If that's the case, the president could be gearing up for 2020 as a referendum on the feckless, fake border security stance of Democrats.  It's a good issue for him.  But it relies on border security voters not caring or forgetting that he did not stand up to feckless, fake border security Republicans this year.  That might turn out to be a political miscalculation by the president, not his first, but by far his most egregious. 

It could be some other calculus, but if that's the case, I cannot see the angle.  Then again, perhaps the president will indeed veto the legislation.  That would be a sign to his supporters that he has not given up the fight, and what we are seeing is just tactics with some design.

Time will tell.

Sham Schumer Shutdown Shuttered

Last Friday I pointed out that the government shutdown was a front, or window dressing if you will, for the left Democrat base.  Today Rush Limbaugh was arguing that nothing had changed, and either Chuck Schumer blinked and the GOP have grown a spine, or else there was something in the deal that he was not yet aware of, to get the government back open today.

The Senate Democrats caved - not just enough to get to 60 votes; they got 80+ votes to extend a continuing resolution.  Apparently they will get a  DACA floor vote before February 8th. It won't pass in any Democrat-friendly form.

So what did the Democrats get?  A nod to their base perhaps?  Maybe not.  There seems more and more to be a looming Democrat intra-party fight over how to challenge Republicans in the midterms.  Chuck Schumer doesn't want Democrats being held responsible for the shutdown and the far left wants this to (a) destroy president Trump and (b) not be a Democrat cave in to their minority status.

Grab some popcorn and enjoy, conservatives; either this becomes a brawl or else just enough disarray to mess up any hope for Democrats in the midterms.  Either way, it seems the Democrats blinked.

Trump's first anniversary shutdown, brought to you by Democrat pols

Yep.

Democrats are far more concerned with Illegal Immigrants than they are with our great Military or Safety at our dangerous Southern Border. They could have easily made a deal but decided to play Shutdown politics instead. #WeNeedMoreRepublicansIn18 in order to power through mess!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 20, 2018

It's a Schumer shutdown, no doubt about it. Do you think it's a coincidence that it happened on the first anniversary of the Trump presidency? The president is right - this is like an anniversary present but the media will rush to blame it on the Republicans as they always do. They'll say the GOP controls the congress, senate and the presidency, but as we all should know - the senate required 60 votes and the GOP has only 51 potential GOP senator votes. The Democrats did this by playing politics. They should be held to account for it. Just as they blamed the Republicans in 2013 and in the 2015 battle, for that shutdown, FOR THE SAME REASON.

It's Schumer's shutdown

This morning I argued that the government shutdown is a Democratic visual ploy.  Rush Limbaugh today pointed out the same thing and discussed pushing back:

Pushback is a thing and it's already in use by conservatives on this issue.  Watch Director of the OMB Mick Mulvaney pushback on CNN's Jim Acosta:

 

Government Shutdown, Trump, Durbin and "The heat"

Last week the president met with members of both parties to discuss DACA, immigration, and everyone's wishlist. It was well received. It was a master stroke of refutation of the mainstream media's Fake News meme that's he's senile and dangerous (especially when followed in short order by a doctor's analysis that Trump himself requested, indicating he was in excellent mental health).  But that's not the real push here for president Trump.  He even said he'd take the heat for any bi-partisan bill put to him on immigration. Similarly, Democrats had an ulterior agenda as well.

Dick Durbin immediately tried to quiet any praise being received by the president's well managed meeting by asserting, without any real substantiation, that the president made racist remarks towards Haiti and African countries. He did that for either one (or both) of two reasons. 

1. He wanted to cut off any potential change in the narrative that president Trump is unfit for the presidency, and
2. Democrats are angling for a government shutdown (which they can count on the mainstream media to pin the blame on Republicans)

But president Trump clearly had an agenda as well.  He wants a wall because it was a campaign promise.  He wants a budget deal.  Knowing the Democrats would tie the DACA issue to a government shutdown thinking they have all the leverage, there's no doubt he had a Plan B.

In fact, that may have been a covert signal to Republicans that if the deal fell through, they would not have to worry about the fallout.  The heat he said he'd take may have been not so much about DACA as it was about the potential government shutdown and the 2018 midterm elections.  So on to Plan B - Durbin's outrageous claims are what killed the DACA deal and have led to a possible government shutdown. 

President Trump is no stranger to taking the heat.  It's what he's been doing since he announced his candidacy.  The reason he is so persistent at firing back is because he is persistently being fired at by the media.  He has the bully pulpit of the presidency to have his voice heard.  He uses Twitter to go around the media and directly to his supporters.  He's counting on his ability to stand firm in the face of a shutdown and not have the Republicans shellacked in the 2018 midterms.  He's counting on a robust economy to put the wind to his back in the argument on the budget and on immigration.  He's counting on his supporters to continue to back him, and therefore Republican candidates in the 2018 midterms regardless of what polls are saying (and the pollsters did not tell the correct story in 2016, despite being within the margin of error - he may be counting on that scenario too).  And he's counting on support for him personally to not only exceed what pollsters are seeing but also to extend to the Republicans in congress.

That's a lot of things to count on but they are not meant to be counted on individually.  He's hoping for some strength in each of those areas, to varying degrees, to

matter come November.  He's right - to some extent each of those things will help him.  What's not clear is the extent to which each will help and whether cumulatively they will turn the Blue Tide of November Red. The economy alone should make a huge difference - I believe it will - but it remains to be seen.

Lined up against those things are the mainstream media, a "Republican-caused" government shutdown, apparently low job approval for the president and potential Republican disunity and the perception on the left that the president is mentally incompetent.

The shutdown is a gamble for Republicans and the president.  Caving to Democrat demands on DACA and immigration or anything else is also a risk.  What it comes down to is whether this truly is a divided country. Are voters entrenched in their ideologies regardless of any of the factors above?  If that's the case, don't expect a blue wave or a red wave in the midterms.  Expect gains by both parties exactly where you'd expect to see them - in their home field advantage areas.  Recent one-off special cases like Roy Moore's loss in Alabama are just that - one-offs. The district by district and state by state elections, with few exceptions, will perform as historically expected. That for Republicans is not only not bad news, it's good news for 2018.

Establishment Republicans missing no-lose opportunity

With Democrats threatening to shut down the government over funding for a border wall with Mexico, many establishment Republicans have also pushed back against the idea of a border wall.  There's a pretty big political miscalculation they have made in not leveraging Democrats.

Every time in the past that Republicans shut down government, it has been a political albatross for them, even when they were right in doing so.  While the media may not paint the Democrats' government shutdown the same way they would when the GOP did it (i.e. negatively), there is a fundamental difference.  Democrat supporters love government, big government, and they don't want it shut down, ever.  Democratic actions to force a shutdown is political hemlock for themselves.

Establishment GOP congressmen and senators don't seem to realize that.  Enabling Democrats to have a shutdown means they don't have to get their own hands dirty in the border wall fight (or mere disagreement with the president).  They look neither duplicitous, soft on illegal immigration nor actively insubordinate to their Commander in Chief.  Neither do they appear complicit to their globalist supporters in having a wall built, should the sentiment turn on Democrats and president Trump succeed in passing a budget with a wall component included.

The GOP cannot be blamed for a shutdown even if CNN calls it a showdown with "neither side budging".  Sure the media can try to paint it any other way, but Democrat supporters who love government will know the truth.  If your welfare check becomes late/delayed and the penalty for getting it to come is to let Trump have his wall, guess what you'll be thinking.

Establishment Republicans, typically a do nothing lot, are missing an opportunity to do nothing and allowing Democrats to take the blame for the situation.  But then, no one has ever accused Republican establishment leadership of tactical brilliance.

Good luck with that

President Obama is threatening a shutdown of government?  Really? Good luck with that.  I say the GOP should let him go ahead with it.  They've been on the wrong side of public opinion on shutdowns before.  They know the sting.  Not only would it further crater his popularity, it would poison the well for Hillary Clinton.  In effect, the only Democrat with the ability to get elected president in the foreseeable future would be an African American, or Hispanic. 

Maybe that`s his plan - to make the party beholden to racial politics.

Ever the party to put politics after national interest snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the GOP has a plan to keep the government open for business and rescue Obama from his own folly.

That`s just great

Shut down the government (for good)?

What's Next's take on the government shutdown should be good for a cynical laugh, no?

Calm, cool, and collected it isn't.  But I do get it.

Talk is cheap - it costs Obama nothing

And the promise to talk, if only the GOP buckles and raises the debt ceiling first, costs even less than nothing.  It's an Obama "let me win" ploy that sets up any talks.  The good news is that at least Boehner gets that if he gives up his cards, he's got nothing left to bargain with.

Via CNN:

Washington (CNN) -- President Barack Obama is ready to talk even on Republicans' terms, he insisted Tuesday, so long as Congress acts first to end the government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling -- even for a short period.

At a news conference, Obama indicated Republicans could essentially set the agenda for budget negotiations, but only if Congress agrees first to a short-term spending plan to fund the government and to raise the federal borrowing limit to avoid a possible first-ever U.S. default next week.

"I will talk about anything," the president said.

House Speaker John Boehner, speaking Tuesday afternoon after what he called a "pleasant" but ineffectual phone call with Obama, promptly rejected the president's comments as nothing new.

"What the president said today was if there's unconditional surrender by Republicans, he'll sit down and talk to us," Boehner said. "That's not the way our government works."

It reminds me of the joke about the guy who offers a woman $5 to sleep with him, and when she's offended he offers her $100,000.  When she accepts he tries again at $20.  She asks what kind of woman he thinks she is and he responds "We've already established that, now we are just haggling over price."

 

Obama wants the GOP to capitulate 'if only a little', because he knows once they have done so, they can't go back to bargain from a strong position.  In fact they can't go back to their constituency and say they stood firm.  He knows that.  He knows he has again won the PR battle.  By appearing conciliatory the press can gloss over Boehner's response or portray it as steadfast obstinacy. 

 

Given that, there's now no point in capitulating if the press goes there.

China to US: Raise your debt ceiling.

Make no mistake, China is America's geo-political adversary of the 21st century.  There are no scenarios in the Chinese mindset that equate to a win-win with the United States and China both benefiting from the relationship.  So when China gives advice like this, you have to wonder not about the short term implications of their statements, but rather the long term ones;

The Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, Zhu Guangyao, told America’s deadlocked politicians on Monday that “the clock is ticking” and called on them to approve an extension of the national borrowing limit before the federal government is projected to run out of cash on 17 October.

“We ask that the United States earnestly takes steps to resolve in a timely way the political issues around the debt ceiling and prevent a US debt default to ensure the safety of Chinese investments in the United States,” Mr Zhu told reporters in Beijing. “This is the United States’ responsibility,” he added.

China clearly has to protect its investments, there's no issue with them wanting to protect their holdings.  But a debt default is not really at risk.  The real concern when China wants you to raise your debt ceiling is that you know that they know it weakens the United States in the longer term.  China also has to know that they are under no real short term risk.  The U.S. will not default on it's debts. Doing so would be catastrophic.

 

So China is playing the long game, wanting to do what it can to undermine U.S. power down the road and supplant them as the single global superpower.  It's all the more reason to get your fiscal house in order.   I doubt however that will happen anytime soon.  So as we speak, China, suggestions are not, are still winning.  and the United States keeps losing ground.

 

 

Chris Christie Revisited?

Anyone who could possibly beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 can't be all that bad can they?  From Matt Lewis, comes the very viable notion that Chris Christie, former Obama embracer, could be the one to most benefit from the government shutdown.

If you're looking for someone who benefits politically from the government shutdown, look no further than New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R).

Several of his potential 2016 rivals, like Sens. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul, were all — to varying degrees — backing the quixotic "defund ObamaCare" strategy. Today, they look like children in comparison to a get-things-done governor like Christie. I don't necessarily think this shutdown will be on the minds of voters in 2016, but what we are witnessing is merely the latest example of a Congress that can't get its act together. Voters will have to ask themselves, "Can we trust these guys to govern?"

The Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin has gone so far as to declare that "in 2016 any GOP governor would be a more viable presidential nominee than any GOP senator."

Rubin is right. And if "any" Republican governor might benefit from these times, Christie, I think, is perfectly suited to this moment.

You can read his reasoning here.

I blew it on the shutdown

That's me.

Yesterday I said the government would not get shut down.  I blew it.  A little.  It wasn't my main point - my main point was that the underpinnings of the government ride were susceptible to a major catastrophe like a ride collapsing.  But still, I said the government would not get shut down.  Apparently I misunderestimated the stupidity of the governing parties.  Or at least the GOP.

 

That's the GOP.

Having said that, I don't know how long the shutdown will last.  A one or two day shutdown will be long forgotten by the next election and it might be enough for the GOP to have thrown a scare into Democrats about the fact that they are serious about dealing with debt and/or Obamacare.  But there is the possibility that the Tea Party portion of the GOP could see this play out until something gets done.  Perhaps by not blinking, for a long, long time - they will get Democrats to buckle.  after all, if the president and the majority in the Senate can't get Congress to smarten up, maybe their supporters will wonder what good they really are.  Maybe their supporters will demand that they make concessions to get the government up and running again.  After all, the when the trough gets shut off, they are the ones who lose out.
 





That's the president.

Addendum: Prior to the shutdown President Obama followed the Harkin unuseful idiot approach by talking about serious talks, and in the same breath lambasting his political opponents.  He continued the attacks after the shutdown. 

"They've shut down the government over an ideological crusade to deny affordable health insurance to millions of Americans," he said during his speech in the White House Rose Garden on Tuesday.

That's sure to bring them to the table Mr. President.  Insults work best when you are trying to work together.
 

.

Government Shutdown Like A Carnival Ride

If you've ever been to a local carnival where the rides are rolled out of trucks and stood up on temporary stands in a shopping mall parking lot, or perhaps a picnic area on the edge of town, then you know what it feels like riding a miniature roller coaster that feels like the tracks are going to collapse out from underneath the ride at any moment.  In that case, what's going on with Capitol Hill right now won't come as a new sensation for you.

 

World markets seem to be waiting to see what happens.  It's as if they are on the ride, not knowing when the twists, turns, drops and climbs are going to occur.  The carnival ride analogy fits there as well - nobody knows how this situation is going to resolve itself, least of all me.  I have my suspicions that there will be a deal before the shutdown actually occurs.

 

Scheming Harry Reid: It's Not About The Number

Lost in thought or just the attempt?

Really Harry?  Are you that dumb or that smart? Either Reid doesn't get that the country is going broke and the resulting voter anger over it, OR, he is using the opportunity to move the debate to territory he feels is more favorable to him because he really wants a shutdown but doesn't want the blame.  So which is it? Scheming politico or out of touch and obstinate?

[As an added wrinkle, Boehner says that they do indeed have an agreement on the social issue stuff and it is in fact really about the numbers.]

Latest Left Protest - Dump Trash on Boehner's Lawn

This is just the beginning.  A Facebook effort to dump trash on Rep. Boehner's lawn - at his home - in the event of of a government shutdown.  Not Harry Reid's lawn mind you.  The left doesn't blame him, just Boehner.  This is purely politics and more specifically the politics of deception.