RNC speeches, for the record

Or, for the win... Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and my personal favorite, Vivek Ramaswamy:

Using their own tactics against them

When a conservative decides to use the tactics of the left against the left, things tend to go well. Political jiu-jitsu works.  It takes on many forms.  Texas governor Greg Abbott bussing illegal immigrants to 'sanctuary cities' and pro-illegal immigration states is a fantastic example. The left lose their minds when it happens - look how insane they are going over Israel defending itself and having had enough of the terrorism of Hamas deciding to not do a half-assed job in dealing with it.

Last Friday, Florida governor Ron DeSantis may have gotten his political fortunes back on track by doing something similar. He has announced that Florida will not comply with the Let's Go Brandon interpretation of Title IX and their new Title IX rules. Good job, governor.  

Using a tactic of the left (everywhere from ANTIFA to the courts, to the president not enforcing the southern border) by not complying with what they demand, is simply a matter of fighting smarter. Every tactic the left uses, is fair game, short of anything they do that is illegal. But this is not an illegal situation; not enforcing a rule is something that is done in government all the time, from the federal level right down to local police not giving tickets to jaywalkers. 

Conservative American governors are starting to figure out that they do indeed have some room to maneuver. This just needs to continue to grow and extend down to municipal levels and upwards to congress. 

Oh, Wow! DeSantis out?!?

Ron DeSantis has dropped out and endorses president Trump!

Digesting Iowa Republican caucus results

The big surprise of the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses was not the margin of Trump's victory or that he won massively, it was that Ron DeSantis came in second.  Pollsters were pointing to a Nikki Haley second place finish. She came third, despite the polls indicating she would run second, and despite the establishment push for her. Vivek Ramaswamy ran fourth as expected, but he did so in a classy way, and bowed out afterward the results were clear, quickly throwing his endorsement behind president Trump.

Most of Vivek's support will likely flow to Trump, though truthfully he really needs no help. It should allow him to run up the score, and it's smart that it comes pre New Hampshire. Trump is leading Nikki Haley there by roughly 14 points according RCP. Vivek's 5 points in that state could allow Trump some additional buffer.

President Trump was uncharacteristically magnanimous in victory, complimenting his primary rivals.  It's of course much easier to be gracious when you have an almost certain lock on the nomination. But that probably helps his candidacy.  His post caucus speech sounded very much like someone wanting the country to come together. It certainly will help him when he wraps up the nomination, to bring the Republican party together. And it will definitely help him in the general election, since the Democrats and media are prepared only for the belligerent version of Trump. It will make Let's Go Brandon look all the more bitter by comparison. At least it will help until the left catches on.  Luckily they don't tend to catch on quickly. It's a smart strategy for Trump.

Ron DeSantis, by coming second, will remain in the race. Even if he knows he cannot win (which may or may not be the actual case), he cannot drop out after a surprise second place finish when he was expected to come third.  It looks bad for his 2028 run if he folds so quickly. DeSantis staying in the race hurts Haley more than Trump. The anti-Trump vote split into two candidates helps Trump possibly even more than a Trump blowout in Iowa. If Trump gets a double digit lead in New Hampshire, going into South Carolina he is expected to blow out everyone again, it could be over that early. That's optimistic but the longer DeSantis stays in the race, the worse the chance become for Nikki Haley, the establishment uni-party darling. 

Iowa caucuses tomorrow - my take

If you are in Iowa and are unsure about caucusing, please do.  This election is one of the most important in our lifetime.  I know everyone keeps saying that, but it's very often true.  To paraphrase what Ronald Reagan pointed out, America is always just one generation away from ruination.  The Left is ever-present in trying to do just that, and have ever pushed America closer to that point.  So yes, this election is important; very, very important.  Here's what is expected.

Most pundits and pollsters have president Trump well ahead of likely second place finisher Nikki Haley who is a few points ahead of likely third place finisher Ron DeSantis. Vivek Ramaswamy is expected to finish fourth in single digits, which is unfortunate.

I support president Trump, and I expect him to win by a wide margin.  Nikki Haley is not only the establishment elite's preferred candidate, but she has been highly inconsistent and ill-spoken in her positions on issues. She will likely come in second, but what matters is how far in second.  Trump needs to mop the floor with her in terms of caucus support. 

Ron DeSantis, no matter how well he does, is likely finished either after Iowa or after New Hampshire.  The one caveat I'd say is that if he can manage second place, he might hang around for a while. His smartest move possible, he missed; that would have been to bow out of 2024 and defer to president Trump. Instead he ran an ill-formed campaign, he made both strategic and tactical gaffes that could conceivably cost him the 2028 nomination too.  He should be in damage control mode at this point but he is not, which is making things worse.

Vivek Ramaswamy who clearly has Trump's back, despite trying to mount his own campaign,  has recently come under fire from Trump himself. I understand that it's politics, but it's optically punching way down for Trump, and does not suit Trump's campaign strategy.  Vivek is the most Trump-like candidate outside of Trump. Unless Trump is angling for Don Jr. 2028, co-opting Vivek's candidacy would be a wise move.  Vivek is well spoken, and agrees with Trump on most every issue and might make a great spokesperson for Trump at every opportunity.

Of course it could be a misdirection play; leading the media to think Vivek won't be the VP nominee when in reality he would be a great pick.  I don't think that's the case though. I think Trump sees Vivek as a fellow outsider billionaire who is a competitor in terms of prestige and he doesn't want to lend the platform to someone outside his family who might shine as much as a Trump. I don't know that, but I sense it.  It doesn't change Trump's politics one iota.  His positions are clear, and intelligent and that's why he needs to be the nominee.  But of all of the candidates, at this point, Ramaswamy is the only other candidate of presidential timbre. Maybe that's why the 'late hit' came from Trump. It doesn't matter. Ramaswamy did not engage and it was a smart move. At some level, he is probably angling for the VP slot and engaging Trump doesn't help that. And in the grander scheme of things, it's likely to be forgotten by both sides. That's for the best.

All that remains to be seen out of Iowa tomorrow is the final numbers. Trump will win (probably handily), Haley will likely finish second, DeSantis third and Ramaswamy fourth.  What matters is less the positions than the margins ahead or behind for each candidate. That will determine who stays in, and if anyone drops out. My guess is the numbers will bear out enough support for everyone that no one drops out before New Hampshire.

John Stossel interviews Ron DeSantis (full length)

Ron DeSantis is going to run for president in 2024. He would beat Biden most likely.  But so would Trump.  The GOP has quite a few good options, unlike the Democrats.  My preference would be for four more years of Trump followed by eight years of DeSantis right afterwards.  I'm also not opposed to eight years of Tim Scott after that either.

Tim Scott and the crowded GOP field

Tim Scott announced his run for president in 2024.  He's a good man but in a ever-more-crowded field with two heavyweights (president Trump and soon, Florida governor Ron DeSantis) it's unlikely there will be room for others to get enough oxygen into their campaigns realistically.

Newt Gingrich sums up Tim Scott quite well here: 

Disney vs. DeSantis

Disney is targeting people with woke corporatism and now they are suing Florida governor Ron DeSantis for targeting them and their special status.  Boo hoo.

DeSantis or Trump in 2024?

My position on the 2024 presidential election has always been that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis should cede the nomination to Trump, but now that's wavering.  My rationale has been that if Trump wins then we could follow that with 2 consecutive DeSantis presidential terms, giving America 12 consecutive years of Republican rule.  Think of what could be accomplished!  But now I wonder if a Trump 2024 victory is a sure thing.  I thought 2020 would be but some how Let's Go Brandon got 81 million votes. I won't rehash how that was even possible here; the net effect was it happened.

DeSantis I think could demolish any opponent. But right now it's still early, I'm reserving judgement and opinion on who the better candidate for 2024 might be.  If it ends up being DeSantis, we still owe president Trump a debt of gratitude for moving the ball down the field in the right direction. He woke up the conservative voters and some of the Republican party.  He made Americans aware of the fact that America first is not a bad thing.  He showed everyone that the status quo is not immutable. That's huge.

Here, Dave Rubin discusses Bill Maher's advice to Ron DeSantis.  It's an interesting take on both parts.

Trump-DeSantis ticket?

 Is this what to expect for 2024? Dinesh D'Souza discusses the possibility.

Ron DeSantis destroys reporter over Hurricane Ian response

 Media bias, shut down.

Hurricane Ian politics (1 of 3)

 Let's Go Brandon skipped over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to talk to mayors of potential cities impacted by the impendng Hurricane Ian. Weird and petty.  But DeSantis was professional about it nonetheless:

"I’m happy to brief the President if he’s interested in hearing what we’re doing in Florida... You've got people’s lives at stake...no time for pettiness, we've gotta work together to make sure we’re doing the best job for them. So my phone line is open." @RonDeSantisFL on Biden pic.twitter.com/d2FkngDq5J

— DeSantis War Room 🐳 (@DeSantisWarRoom) September 27, 2022

DeSantis vs. Soros backed attorney

 Everyone should be going after these implanted political operatives.

Ron DeSantis refused to go on The View

 A brilliant decline tpo appear with a bunch of crazy idealogue leftists.

What the polls are saying (pt. 3/3)

Recent polling has told us a lot and also, less than you might suspect. I know many conservatives are expecting a blowout in  this year's midterm elections as well as a triumphant return of Donald Trump in 2024.  While things look good from a polling perspective for our side right now, they are far from absolute.  They look pretty good but not "great", and falling back on the axiom that polls tend to under report Republican support and/or over report Democrat support, is not a wise crutch to use [NOTE: Previous portions of this thread can be found here and here.]

As I've already looked at Let's Go Brandon's job approval (which will have an effect on both 2022 and 2024) as well as taken a look at congressional polling in isolation, next I want to take a look at favorability/unfavorability ratings because there are some interesting things to see there as well.  Once again I will be looking at the RealClearPolitics aggregation, but only because it is a good place to find a summarized list of most polling in a given category.  I've previously provided many caveats as to why polling reliability is highly variable and aggregation is not much more than a directional indicator over time.

Below are three views of favorability, for Let's Go Brandon, for Kamala Harris and for Donald Trump (interestingly, there seems to be none for Ron DeSantis, which in itself says something).

Notice in the aggregate Trump narrowly bests Let's Go Brandon and handily bests Harris. Notice also that all three are well under water (below 50/50 in favorable/unfavorable).   But these are the same aggregate views I've argued against.  Instead of consuming that as is, I decided to do a source by source comparison. For example, how did the Federalist poll compare Trump, Harris and Let's Go Brandon?

What stuck out to me was something I both expected and did not expect to be my topline finding.  Here's a brief summary of the outcome looking at the most recent set of polls on the topic.  These are in order from the ridiculous to the sublime (from a Trump supporter perspective).

Brandon-leaning results

Reuters/Ipsos: Had Brandon favorable/unfavorable even (not underwater). His +/- spread was ahead of Harris by 2 points and ahead of Trump by 5 points. This was definitely an outlier considering how underwater Brandon actually is in aggregate compared to here.  But this has historically been a left leaner as far as poll results go.

Economist/YouGov: In this generally pro-Brandon polling, Brandon was underwater but still ahead of both Harris and Trump by a healthy 5 points. This is a not unexpected result considering their history and political bent.

  

NPR/PBS/Marist: Frankly this was the pollster I expected to have the strongest Brandon favorable ratings, and the largest gap over Trump.  They did not poll for Harris. They did have Brandon underwater but still ahead of Trump by 3 points.  Maybe they were just hoping to get lost in the aggregation of "still better than Trump" polls. But this was unexpectedly close. Remember, 2016 was a choice of what the media portrayed as two unlikeable candidates. They may be gearing up for that scenario in 2024.

Politico/Morning Consult: Politico is definitely left leaning despite always trying to front an image of neutral analysis. Their poll had Brandon underwater but still ahead of Harris by 3 and Trump by 1. This was surprisingly close for Trump and deserves a deeper dive into the crosstabs, which I have not yet done but may need to do in the future if their polling on this remains relatively consistent. 

NBC News: A liberal Mecca, they nevertheless show Brandon underwater by 14 points. But hey, he's ahead of Harris by 6 and Trump by 1 point. On the latter, again it's surprisingly close.  It may be that the messaging could become "yes he's bad, but remember how much you hated the other guy?"  That's called projecting.

Trump-leaning results

Federalist/Susquehanna: The Federalist is a fantastic conservative commentary publication/website.  They put Brandon underwater and ahead of Harris by 5, but behind Trump by 2 (who is only 1 point underwater).  I'd love to believe this is accurate. I'm not sure I can. Having Trump only 1 point underwater may be the conservative equivalent of  Reuters having Brandon even.  As much as you may love Trump, you have to admit that the barrage of hateful media coverage from 2015 through to today did him considerable damage from a polling perspective.  He's definitely far more popular than the polls suggest but by just how much, is not clear.  

Harvard-Harris: Harvard-Harris is a polling firm with roots in the Hillary Clinton campaign (Mark Penn) They have Brandon underwater.  While he's ahead of Harris by 3, he's behind Trump by the same amount.  That's almost stunning, not so much in that he's done a terrible job and the last guy did a great job in so many ways, but rather that you are seeing liberal pollsters publishing these types of results.

 

Fox News: Once the conservatives' bastion of information, the network still leans right in their opinion shows but not so much in polling and analysis. Remember they were the first network in 2020 to call Arizona for Brandon, before even CNN and MSNBC.  They have Brandon underwater, yet ahead of Harris by 3.  He's behind Trump by 2 though. The real takeaway here is that all three are well underwater.

Emerson: In 2016 Emerson was a leading edge indicator on the results for Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, seeing results in August of that year that made them an outlier at the time. In fact FiveThrityEight rated them as a B-tier pollster. Of course FiveThirtyEight have their own issues with the pollster ratings. Emerson had Brandon underwater and behind Trump by 4 points. Trump they have above water at +5.  Being an outlier does not necessarily mean you are wrong, it means more due diligence is required. 

Rasmussen: Considered a traditionally right-leaning outfit, Rasmussen did not poll Brandon or Harris for favorability, only Trump whom they put above water by 7 points.  The nearest proxy for Brandon is their rating of his job approval which is at a stunning (but not really, considering) -30.  Rasmussen has been strikingly correct as well as well off base in the past.  I think in this case they have done a good job of capturing Trump supporter opinions.  I think they may underestimate the number of his detractors. Overall to be honest I think his support is strong but either still slightly underwater or even at best.  He unfortunately has a large pool of haters.  I mean if this is correct we have a slam dunk: Trump 2024, and DeSantis for 2028 and 2032. What a magical string of winning that could be for America. But I'm still holding a grain of salt to this result.

Overall Takeaways

My conclusions regarding these favorable/unfavorable ratings are threefold.  

Firstly, a lot of these left-leaning pollsters realize that they cannot hide the palpable dissatisfaction with Brandon, hence he's underwater. But they'd still like to maintain the narrative that he's a better option than Trump.  Interestingly that may change if they see DeSantis enter the race for 2024.   They may try to make Trump look more appealing because they think he's more beatable than DeSantis. That's going to take time as it's still only 2022 and they probably think Brandon's favorable ratings are salvageable if they can somehow get him back to his campaign basement and out of public sight for an extended stretch.

Secondly, as for the pollsters more favorable to Trump I'm on the fence. They are probably the most correct at this point because of how bad Brandon actually is. But is that enough?  His reputation has been unfairly tarnished to the point of absurdity.  Also, once out of power it's easy to take shots at the sitting president and gain favorability through pointing out problems. But I do see a lot of people in retrospect realizing he was not as bad as he was made out to be and he was certainly far better than his ersatz replacement.  So his favorability could be on the mend. For now. 

He was a very good president for the country in so many ways. He deserved better treatment from the media.  But that's the issue.  Should he be the Republican nominee in 2024 he'll get the same treatment or worse, and his favorability may end up reflecting that before the election regardless across the board of the pollster bent. That should not stop him from running because no matter who runs for the nomination as a Republican they will get the same treatment.  If Jesus were to return and run as a Republican, they would make up stuff about him too.

That's a sad commentary on the state of the nation, but then again so is Brandon as president.

Thirdly, and finally, I believe favorability is probably the weakest measure of a political figure at this point.  Things have become so partisan that voters for either party would vote for a tree stump over a candidate from the other party.  Political affiliation matters more and more and the number of independents who are truly persuadable either way has diminished to the point that they may someday end up extinct as a group.

For 2024 all of it is too early to tell. Brandon may not run again.  Trump may not run again. Kamala Harris may become relevant.  Sarcasm aside, there are too many unknowns between now and 2024 to make a call. But the 2022 midterms are just starting to come slightly into focus.

This man would make a great president

 Ron DeSantis, patriot.

Trump's predicament

President Trump has made no great secret that he wants to run for president again in 2022. But he's in a bit of a tricky situation due to a number of converging factors. 

Firstly as of right now, the GOP are walloping Let's Go Brandon and the  Democrats in generic congressional polling (as of this writing, the Republicans hold a 4.2% lead in the RCP average, an average that most recently tends to understate the margin of victory of the poll leading party see 2018, 2014 and typically understates GOP support).  That's good news for conservatives and an apple cart we do not want to upset heading towards the November midterm elections. It behooves president Trump not to upset that momentum as the Democrats have been bleeding Hispanic and now African American support too.  It's on the best interest of the party right now for Trump to keep a low profile except in strategic races where he can help.  

Secondly Elon Musk is in the process of claiming Twitter. He's vowed to make it more open and balanced and has offered to reinstate president Trump's account (who, thanks to his efforts with Truth Social, has so far declined to return). Let's Go Brandon and the Democrats (not to mention CNN et al.) would secretly love to see president Trump return unfettered to the platform.  They need him as a foil to counter the Democrats' absolutely abysmal record on everything since taking control of D.C.  He could act as a distraction for them, and his brash style most certainly would attract/distract a lot of attention. Circling back to the first point, keeping a low profile is not president Trump's style. Whether it's Twitter or Truth Social, he wants to be in there swinging.  We'll circle back to this point as well.

If polling is to be believed, Ron DeSantis is lined up to produce a crushing electoral win in the coming Florida gubernatorial race.  If logic is to be believed, he's lined up to be an eventual presidential contender either in 2024 or 2028.  If he crushes it in this gubernatorial election the case for 2024 becomes that much stronger, as Trump-hating Allahpundit points out.

That diminishes the window for president Trump to remain quiet, to remain off Twitter if Truth Social is still experiencing birthing pains.  He has a limited window to act if he doesn't want to be threatened as the GOP frontrunner for 2024. It precedes even the window that Allahpundit suggest of January 2023.  Why?  If president Trump appears to sit on the sidelines during the 2022 midterm run-up he hardly exudes leadership.

Conversely, if he does insert himself, he risks giving the Democrats the arch-villain they want for this election.  President Trump is not one to back down from a fight. He's likely to go all in for 2022 and as a conservative, that's something we should be glad about: running from a fight has failed Republicans for decades.  Why go back to that approach now?  So it really isn't a predicament.  We know what media storm is going to come if president Trump inserts his support and speeches into the midterm elections. We know there will be potential polling pitfalls that come with that. But there is also the potential benefit of rallying support around a rebuke of D.C. Trump need only make it about the contrast between his record good numbers and Let's Go Brandon's record bad numbers.  If he can do that in 6 second sound bytes the news is all good for conservatives.  And we still have our secret weapon: Let's Go Brandon is still the one making decisions, and all of them are bad.

Disney's comeuppance

 Florida is getting it right.

Disney's wokeness could lead to financial pain

Disney has gone full woke.  There's been a backlash among parents and they are potentially facing a decline in visitors to the theme parks.  It's going to get worse for them financially as Florida governor Ron DeSantis is going after their special tax status in that state.  

Disney can't exactly pull up stakes and move the Disney World parks to a liberal state.  The cost would be enormous but beyond that, there aren't many year-round warm climate states in the leftist-liberal column. California?  Already has a Disney Park.  Nevada?  Trending right but it also has Las Vegas already and is not as child friendly a state (even though that apparently doesn't matter much to Disney anymore).  Colorado is too cold, Virginia is a semi-swing state and also too far north.  That leaves 3 possible states as far as I can tell; Hawaii (way too far west, and way too expensive a destination by comparison), Georgia (still very much conservative despite the 2020 election cycle) and New Mexico, which has an infrastructure problem (airports, roads, population are all difficult by comparison).

Now that's not to say the move would be impossible to any of those options, just difficult, costly and time consuming.  Of course Disney could opt for another conservative state instead in the hopes that the target state would just be glad for the smaller incremental tax revenue, the tourists and the potential for economic and population growth.  That would preclude a state like Texas that could stand on principle and offer the same deal Florid is considering adapting for Disney. Still, any 'smaller' conservative state would still present the same problems as New Mexico, plus potentially be another Florida down the road by removing the special tax status of the theme parks.  In fact, they'd be better to accept it for a 3 or 5 year window and then switch it back to standard taxation.  Disney would have to move again, or suck up the tax hit.

The point is, Disney's get woke changes won't make them go broke, but they will come to recognize that they are not impact-free when it comes to their poor decision-making.

Palate cleanser: Dinesh D'Souza on Ron DeSantis vs. Big Tech

After two posts showing Rubio talking truth (so far just talking it), I thought I should get back to some red meat.  Here's Dinesh D'Souza on Ron DeSantis vs. Big Tech.

NOTE: Both DeSantis and Rubio are from Florida, and while Rubio is talking a good game right now (and it is better than the alternative), DeSantis is actually doing something.