Full GOP Debate

In the interest of sharing as much information as possible here's the full first 2024 GOP debate from August 23, 2023.

Vivek Ramaswamy is also running for the GOP nomination for 2024

There are other candidates in the race (I'll cover all of them eventually), but Vivek Ramaswamy is one more good candidate worth some attention. Here's John Stossel's recent full interview with him.

Tim Scott and the crowded GOP field

Tim Scott announced his run for president in 2024.  He's a good man but in a ever-more-crowded field with two heavyweights (president Trump and soon, Florida governor Ron DeSantis) it's unlikely there will be room for others to get enough oxygen into their campaigns realistically.

Newt Gingrich sums up Tim Scott quite well here: 

Warren out, finally.

I guess it's time for that Tulsi Gabbard surge...

This may have come too late for Sanders but he could still benefit from her withdrawal.  It sure looks like the Democrat party has lined up things for Joe Biden to ensure a nomination for him.

Mitt Romney is being a d*****

Mitt Romney is on the Senate floor now announcing that he is for impeachment.  Not a team player, and he is wholly embracing his own political bias, despite what he is saying.  He will never be welcome back in the GOP and should be primaried, hard.

Is Bernie Sanders going to have to drop out?

According to Breitbart, Bernie Sanders is facing a medical issue:

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) underwent emergency heart surgery, installing two stents in an artery, and has canceled all campaign events “until further notice,” his campaign announced Wednesday morning.

Sanders’ Senior Advisor Jeff Weaver said in an emailed statement that Sanders, 78, “experienced some chest discomfort” during a campaign event on Tuesday. A medical evaluation determined that he had a blockage in an artery, and two stents were “successfully inserted.”

Weaver said Sanders conversing and “in good spirits.” However, they are canceling all of his campaign activities until further notice.

It's well within the realm of possibility that Sanders will recover fully, but the question is whether his campaign can do the same. As a real contender, he can't afford an indefinite suspension of events and media face time. It puts his campaign at risk if he misses a weak. Further, there is an immediate perception problem. Voters will wonder, fairly, "is he physically up to the job?" It's not necessarily fair because he could recover fully but the perception may not follow suit. It's a fair perception because you cannot really know, but it is not necessarily fair to Bernie at the same time.

I am no fan of socialist Bernie, but it is an unfortunate development for his campaign. I suspect this is something that drops him back down to the top of the second tier - leaving Warren, Biden as the only contenders in the first tier. Sanders could find himself between that tier with support in the 20% plus range and ahead of Buttigieg and Harris in the 5% range. This could definitely drop Sanders from a barely top tier 16% down to 10%, clearly falling out of the top tier, away from potential recovery to a true contender.

That leaves Warren and Biden in the front runner category. If the Biden scandal pans out this becomes a Trump vs. Warren 2020 general election. Sanders' fellow socialist Elizabeth Warren has an opportunity to seize the nomination by the throat at this point. She will need to go after Biden to do it. It is interesting because with the next debate she will have to decide whether to go after the potential Ukraine scandal involving Biden, or to take the "high road" among Democrats and ignore the scandal.

Please be sure to primary Justin Amash for 2020!!!

If you live in Michigan's 3rd congressional district you have got to primary useful idiot Justin Amash.  The same Republican who wants to impeach president Trump based on no collusion and no obstruction (so what, for bad hair?) is at it again.

The Democrat-led House Oversight Committee voted 25-16 to authorize a subpoena for Kellyanne Conway over (non existent) Hatch Act violations.

And surprise, surprise, Trump-bashing GOP Rep. Justin Amash (MI) was the lone Republican to side with Dems to authorize the subpoena.

This man is no better than a Democrat,  In fact he's worse - he's a Republican not voting the way his constituents voted.  He was once supposedly a Tea Party darling. If that was ever true, it is clearly not so now.  He's either a double agent Democrat in the guise of a Republican or else just a useful idiot for the Democrats.  Either way he's baggage for conservatives.

Remember this recently? [Aside -- When I did a search for the video of the criticism, FYI, YouTube served up MSNBC, CNN et. al. with coverage of applause for the congressman. This video did not turn up until the 16th video in the search results. Google, still evil].

Or perhaps you recall this bit of putrescence from 2 years ago:

Primary him, primary him, primary him!

Blind Handicapping New Hampshire for fun

I haven't had a chance to follow any polling updates today to see how the New Hampshire primaries are trending.  So, rather than  reading up, I'm going to blindly handicap the outcome, just for fun.  Here's my stab in the dark.

GOP:

Trump - 34%

Kasich  - 16%

Rubio  - 14%

Bush  - 9%

Carson - 8%

Cruz  - 6%

Christie - 5%

Fiorina - 4%

Gilmore - 1%

Democrats:

Sanders - 58%

Clinton -  42%

I'm not even sure the percentages add up to 100%. I'll just attribute any shortage or overage to rounding errors.

UPDATE:

After I posted, I read up.  Here's Allahpundit's prediction. I may be not as far off as I thought. At least on the order, except for Cruz.  I'll take it.

Prediction time: Trump 26, Kasich 18, Rubio 16, Bush 14, Cruz 14
POSTED AT 4:41 PM ON FEBRUARY

The first GOP debate participants are set

Fox News debate one for the GOP is set.  I'm a bit surprised who is in the 10th spot.

After the debate - Newt's next problem

Newt Gingrich is a terrific debater, and on the surface it would seem that he won the debate last night, within the first 3 minutes with his response to John King's opening question.  Fair enough.  Although each candidate had their moment(s) to shine.  Mitt Romney even provided a couple of good answers himself.  Good in the sense that they sounded more genuine than they did car salesman, as he often does (to me at least).  Whether Gingrich actually won or not, there's an observation to be made about his debating style that could prove to be a weakness in the long run.

Part 3 - GOP primaries – Beyond the Nomination

Continuing my look at the 2012 GOP nomination process, whom will be left standing to face president Obama in the general election after the nomination process is less important than what they have in their arsenal and what they will be faced with to do political battle. I’m not going to lie to you, it’s not as rosy as 2010. However, there is one secret weapon that might still help.

Part 1 - GOP primaries – after Iowa, what next?

Spoilers alert.

The Iowa primary race is a watershed moment for the GOP presidential race. Right now the possible paths, even knowing the likely outcomes of the Iowa caucuses are too numerous to contemplate. But if we winnow it down to a number of possible first stage results, some of the likely consequences and next steps can be extrapolated.

The likely outcomes of Iowa based on polling are possible to narrow down. The polling could result in a number of different Iowa winners, despite the decidedly large number of undecided Iowans. To simplify, let’s narrow the field into two buckets – Top 4 finishers, and Also-rans. Perhaps a bit harsh, but this is politics, so there’s no need to couch the wording in niceties.

GOP 'crowdation'

With Newt Gingrich surging to the top of many polls, clearly his momentum has caused other candidates to try to take a different tack in order to gain, or regain, some traction.  Oddly, it seems like everyone who is trying to differentiate themselves is taking the same sort of approach.

What to look for in CNN's GOP debate tonight

CNN is hosting another in a series of seemingly endless GOP primary debates tonight.  The topic: foreign policy and national security.  This will be the second foreign policy debate, and it provides candidates one more opportunity to make an impression on voters for better or worse.  There's two things I'd expect to see in the debate tonight.