Trump has raised $300 million in 4 days

I pray this is a real number:

The Trump Campaign and its Super PACS raised nearly $300 million in May from small donors and billionaires, and it's just going to grow from there.

Suck on that Merchan.

— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) June 4, 2024

$300 million in 4 days? I hope that's real and not just hype. 

Rumors of Republican Trump support's death are greatly exaggerated.

Not just exaggerated, completely wrong. Someone named Janan Ganesh seems to be claiming that support for president Trump is actually quite shallow and Republicans could easily abandon him during impeachment proceedings.

Unicorns.

How do I know? Record fundraising by the president:

Blockbuster: Trump, RNC Raise Combined $125 Million In Third Quarter, A New Record

How big is this number? When Obama ran for reelection in 2011, he and the DNC managed a combined $70 million in the third quarter.

Does that sound like any kind of scenario where Republicans (RNC) would be politically suicidal enough to abandon ship? 

On Trumpian fundraising

Fox Business reports that president Trump's fundraising is going well, despite the protesters trying to prevent even donations to the president:

When Wealthy Liberals Abandon America

(Soft) Money talks.

The Internet can be a wonderful thing.  It used to be that when a news story broke without a lot of context, it was difficult to get the right sort of background and context to be able to understand the implications of the story. In fact, if there was a somewhat related story days, weeks or years before, you'd have to remember it and link the two points together - a pretty rare feat for most of us.  But that is not necessary any longer with the availability of information via the Internet.  Case in point - socialite Denise Rich.  Wait, who?  It turns out she's an Obama donor and tied to less than upstanding goings-on.

Are Democrats Throwing In The Towel On Obama?

Never underestimate your opponent, that's Winning 101 stuff. Looking at the 2012 presidential election and a few recent trends it's tempting to wonder if Democrats, many Democrats, are throwing in the towel on Obama. But in the spirit of not underestimating them, you have to pause and ask yourself if it's an act of playing possum, or whether they really are trying to cast the president aside and focus on keeping the Senate and perhaps winning back Congress.

Conservatives shouldn't decide to coast based on these developments because the perceived advantage could disappear quickly.

Outlier fundraising?

A lot of times when talking about polls where a specific poll does not align with the majority of polls out there during the same time frame it is referred to as an outlier. This simply means that the poll may be subject to statistical noise (bad polling, bad weather, other events influencing it than the primary expectation) and is likely not reflective of the true state of the situation with respect to whatever is being polled.  It lies on or beyond the outskirts of the normal range you'd expect to see from poll results. Often outlier polls scream headlines that aren't justified by a critical look at the reality of the situation. An outlier is typically not an indicator of a trend, more often it is in fact, just an outlier.

The same outlier principle can be applied to other situations, at least rhetorically or metaphorically.  A recent article in The Hill may be a good example.  It cites a recent surge in campaign donations for Mitt Romney and extrapolates Romney catching up to Obama in terms of fundraising.  For conservatives willing to pretend believe that Romney is a conservative Republican, that would seem like a dose of good news.  But I think it's an outlier, backed up by some sensationalism.

Mitt Romney's fundraising has skyrocketed since he became the de facto nominee, a top Romney fundraiser told The Hill Wednesday evening.

"People are coming out of the woodwork," said the fundraiser, who requested not to be named. "A number of my friends who didn't want to get involved in the primary are now coming off the sidelines for the general election."

...Romney's schedule is very heavy on fundraising appearances the next month, and if he continues to bring in $1 million or more at most stops he could quickly close the gap with obama in campaign money. Romney finished March with a bit more than $10 million in the bank after having to spend heavily in the primary, while Obama had $104 million cash on hand.

Romney and the RNC have a combined fundraising goal of $800 million, according to a memo obtained by the New York Times. That figure would likely mean Romney outspends Obama — and that doesn't factor in the Republican-aligned outside groups, which are expected to outspend their Democratic counterparts by large margins.

But how much of that sideline money will continue to pour in at the same pace? Given that the floodgates were shut, and they've finally opened you have to expect that there was a temporal displacement effect.   The people who were sitting on the sidelines waiting to hop in finally had their chance.  It's like Cash for Clunkers in reverse*.  That silly program pushed buyers forward in time to buy earlier than they had planned to save money.  In Romney's case, a number of people were clearly waiting to see the final (likely) nominee before sending in money that would get used in the primaries instead of the general election.  That effect will pass and the Romney donations should normalize.

If I were Romney, I would not depend on the predictions like this to materialize, and I would operate as if I were running with a financial disadvantage versus president Obama.  Any change in that likelihood should be regarded as an unexpected bonus, but not yet.  It's far to early for that.  Playing as if you are behind, no matter what the circumstances indicate, is the surest way to keep your eye on the ball and much more likely to result in success.  Stories that the Obama re-election team regard the Romney campaign as a joke may or may not be true, but if it is, it's a sure fire way to be taken by surprise. Several presidents from Reagan, to Clinton and even Obama were regarded by their opponents as easy fodder and turned out to be surprising 'upset' winners.

Romney would do himself a service by keeping up his fundraising, GOTV and campaigning efforts as if he were 10 points and tens of millions of dollars behind the president.  Let's hope he can do conservatives a service if he actually wins*.

*NOTE:  Any association between Clunkers and Romney is inferred by the reader and not necessarily implied...

Part 3 - GOP primaries – Beyond the Nomination

Continuing my look at the 2012 GOP nomination process, whom will be left standing to face president Obama in the general election after the nomination process is less important than what they have in their arsenal and what they will be faced with to do political battle. I’m not going to lie to you, it’s not as rosy as 2010. However, there is one secret weapon that might still help.

Hey Tea Party, Where Are You?

In a recent New Yorker article that brings a disturbing image of Pelosi power-walking to mind, it's evident that Democrats are working their collective donkeys off for 2012 and the GOP, Tea Partiers and conservatives seem to be just sitting back and watching the GOP primaries.  You can't win by being a spectator.

What is Steele logic?

Michael Steele seems to be suffering from a logic deficit.  Calling off a get out the vote effort (GOTV) in the run-up to a critical election for the GOP seems so self-defeating as to raise a number of serious questions.  First and foremost, why? 

Steele's RNC seems to be all wrong

This should scare you if you are a conservative, hoping that the GOP has got the gears back on it's RNC machine. Over at the Horse Race Blog on RealClearPolitics, Jay Cost made three good points back on May 29th about measuring Michael Steele as chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC).

The problem is that, while many of us were willing to be patient, there really isn't a lot of time to get this role right, and there isn't a lot of room to get things wrong. Steele had to hit the ground running, in a full on sprint, because while the DNC and the Democrats may be short on meaningful and sound policy, they are proving to be expert at the politics of winning.

Point 1: Focus

For those of you who, like me, think a party chairman has better things to do than host a radio show - you'll be interested to know that Steele is still doing that. He again guest-hosted Bill Bennett's radio show this morning.

Absolutely! Like his job. What's his job supposed to be? I've discussed it on Twitter before - he needs to get candidates. He needs to raise vast sums of cash for a GOP war chest. He needs to make inroads into untapped constituencies by organizing community outreach efforts to conservative minded groups of Hispanics, African Americans and manufacturing workers that have no voice for their conservatism - other than to do things like vote against California's Proposition 8. If they can do that, they can vote conservative. Reaching them is more important than being a talking head. He's not great at it anyway. He comes across as an apologist. Stay focused Mr.Steele.

Point 2: Stop being an apologist and pandering

In what seemed like an effort to distance the party from claims that Sotomayor is "racist" and an "Affirmative Action" pick, Steele repeatedly said that Republicans should be hailing the historic nature of Obama's pick.

"I'm excited that a Hispanic woman is in this position," Steele said. He added that instead of "slammin' and rammin'" on Sotomayor, Republicans should "acknowledge" the "historic aspect" of the pick and make a "cogent, articulate argument" against her for purely substantive reasons.

Grow some backbone Michael Steele. There's a reason the base is up in arms over what looks to be a racist pick. The reason? IT'S A BAD IDEA.

Most importantly, Point 3: Show me the money

Mr. Chairman - crazy suggestion for you. Instead of spending your Friday morning fielding calls on a talk show, why don't you pick up your phone and try to find the RNC the cash it'll need to compete next year? Or call up that marginal, would-be candidate one more time to talk him into running - perhaps by promising him the support from all the donors you're about to call. This task might also be referred to as...your job description, which does not include posturing against your party for the satisfaction of your own vanity/ego while guest-hosting a talk show and serving as the party's chief media whore pundit.

Amen to that Jay. As I pointed out with respect to point 1, the RNC needs a massive War Chest, not another talking head. Instead, it looks like the GOP might be saddled with the reverse. It's still not too late, but the fat lady is already warming up.

2010 started on November 5th 2008. Steele didn't get elected until January 30th 2009. That gap wasted 3 months of 24, or 12.5% of the GOPs time. Steele seems to have compounded the problem with the three issues above. It's now nearly 30% of the way from the Obama win until the 2010 election. Can you believe that?

Time's a wastin'.