Part 2b - GOP primaries – The Wildcards (cont.)

NOTE: this post is a continuation of Part 2a - GOP primaries – The Wildcards.

In addition to the wild card factor posed  by Sarah Palin and Donald Trump, there is some wild card factor with two people still in the race - Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.  How will they affect the race?

As expected, Bachmann out

It's now official.  The press conference mentioned below has just happened.

Via CNN:

(CNN) - Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is suspending her campaign, a GOP source familiar with her plans told CNN Senior Congressional Correspondent Dana Bash on Wednesday.

A Republican source familiar with Bachmann's plans told CNN Chief National Correspondent John King earlier Wednesday Bachmann "will acknowledge the reality of Iowa's vote" a at Wednesday morning press conference.

It was by all accounts, a squeaker

The GOP caucuses in Iowa yesterday were unbelievably close.  Romney won with 30,015 votes (24.6%) and Rick Santorum came in second, a mere 8 vote back, with 30,007 (24.5%).  Ron Paul came in third with 26,219 (21.4%) and Newt Gingrich was fourth with 16,251 (13.3%).  Everything pretty much went according to expectations as far as who the top four were, although the exact positions and the closeness of the top two were a surprise - to me at least. I thought Santorum had enough momentum to overtake both Paul and Romney, even though he was still well behind the two in the polling averages at RCP in the last week. Boy was I close - off by 8, or rather 9, votes.  I also thought Ron Paul would drop off further than he did and would place fourth behind Gingrich, who I thought would perform a few percentage points better than he did (I was thinking 15% to 16%).

Part 2a - GOP primaries – The Wildcards

Matrix-like: There is no spoon.

NOTE: This is a continuation from Part 1.

There are three big wild cards in the GOP presidential nomination race, and one minor wild card. The three big wild cards include two personalities not in the race – Donald Trump, and Sarah Palin. The in-the-race wild card is Ron Paul and the minor wild card, also in the race, is Rick Santorum. 

Each of those four individuals has some concrete or at least a potential part to play in this election cycle. Each one has the potential to make a significant difference or to be a non-factor depending on what they decide to do. A look at what they bring to the process is in order.

Part 1 - GOP primaries – after Iowa, what next?

Spoilers alert.

The Iowa primary race is a watershed moment for the GOP presidential race. Right now the possible paths, even knowing the likely outcomes of the Iowa caucuses are too numerous to contemplate. But if we winnow it down to a number of possible first stage results, some of the likely consequences and next steps can be extrapolated.

The likely outcomes of Iowa based on polling are possible to narrow down. The polling could result in a number of different Iowa winners, despite the decidedly large number of undecided Iowans. To simplify, let’s narrow the field into two buckets – Top 4 finishers, and Also-rans. Perhaps a bit harsh, but this is politics, so there’s no need to couch the wording in niceties.

The march is on

The day after tomorrow the Iowa caucus kicks off the primary season for the 2012 presidential election.  It's the start of an almost year long march towards the election.  Less important than the implications of that march are the predictions of who might eventually win.  While I intend to look at the overall implications of the race this month, let's start with something less meaningful, since it's less effort on a January 1st morning.

National Review Editors lose touch

The Editors of National Review give a well worded explanation of whom they feel is an acceptable candidate, and in doing so, lose all credibility.

Next time, think things through. If there is a next time.

Debate without a winner?

A bit of a yawner.

As we get further into the GOP presidential debates, the GOP primary candidates all seem to be hitting their strides in the debate venues - no big mistakes, get the talking points out, and differentiate yourself from the other candidates.  They all seem to be getting there - albeit a different rates of speed.  Perry for example spoke better but still had a pause or two that was a couple of seconds too long.  Given that emerging dynamic, and the fact that there are fewer and fewer areas of new ground to go over, is it possible for anyone to win?

Romney's comment: It's not a gaffe, but it's not good.

Via ABC, Mitt Romney in last night's debate offered up his second not-ready-for-prime-time moment by  offering to make a $10,000 bet with Rick Perry.  He was just trying to make a point about his conviction on his  point about his health care position.  But after his previous faux pas in an earlier debate (regarding his lawn care company hiring an illegal alien, and him being concerned because he was running for office), this doesn't help Mitt.

Offering to bet isn't a smart thing to do during a presidential debate.  It's not a gaffe in the sense that he's done something illegal (some would say it's immoral), especially since it's pretty easy to argue he was using it to make a point and wasn't serious about betting.  But it's playground politics.  My dad can beat up your dad.  It's not presidential timbre.

Michele Bachmann's camp jumped all over it and pointed out the other reason it was not a good move - it can come across (if you don't buy Romney's defense) as being out of touch with regular people:

“For someone to go and throw around a $10,000 bet, just goes to show even more that he’s not the same level as the people of Iowa or the country,” said Michele Bachmann’s spokeswoman Alice Stewart.

One concern it raises for me is the debating skills. Previously I felt that Romney would fare pretty well in a debate against Obama.  Mitt's not my choice but I felt that if he were the nominee, he'd hold his own in a head-to-head debate versus Obama.  Now I'm less sure, and if you take away Romney's claim to being most electable, what's he left with?

EXIT QUESTION: Did anyone else think this?

A second look at Michele Bachmann?

With Cain dropping out of the GOP race and Bachmann surging in the Iowa polling, maybe it's time for a second look.  Bachmann has certainly been consistent in her conservative principles throughout the race, out-performing Gingrich,  Perry, and even Cain in that regard. So where did her support disappear to in the first place?

Romney Zombies on the loose

I just finished a fantastic steak dinner at Toronto's Harbour 60, and decided there was no better time to start thinking about zombie metaphors and how zombies can be related to the current political situation in America.  Of course - doesn't the thought process follow? Steaks, zombies eating brains.  Well, it made sense to me at least.  Now, I've talked about zombie democrats before. Collectivism is suited perfectly to zombie metaphors and Democrats have shifted pretty far into that territory.  But that's sort of stale now.  There's some zombification happening in the GOP primaries as well.

Jimmy Fallon: Not a peep but a tweet

For those who haven't heard Michele Bachmann was on Jimmy Fallon's show yesterday and there was a problem with the intro music that played as she walked on.

Via Hot Air;

Michele Bachmann decided to up the ante today with NBC over the intro song played for her appearance on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon. Appearing on Fox News, Bachmann accepted Fallon’s personal apology published yesterday on Twitter but said that the network also owes her one for the band’s choice of “Lyin’ Ass Bitch,” not to mention the boasting that followed from the band’s drummer, Questlove.

GOP foreign policy debate: No real winner

In the first hour of the South Carolina GOP candidates debate, there was no clear winner. In the bonus on-line time, there wasn't much difference. Everyone did well, and as Newt Gingrich pointed out, everyone on that stage would be an improvement over president Obama.  Everyone handled themselves as expected, and there were no real surprises.

The Michigan GOP Debate Deconstructed

How did the Michigan GOP debate go?  It went well.  It was a quality debate, on quality topics. CNBC had a good slate of questions.  Perhaps not all of the questioners were the best choices but overall they were pretty good.

The precis on Social Security during the break was an admirable attempt to bring the issue to those who may be unaware of the issues with the program, but it was probably an over-simplification and and under-representation of the severity of the problem.

What about the candidates?  They all seemed to have their specific focus and game plan that they were pretty much able to stick with.  Whose game plan worked, whose didn't?

Gain on Cain

Three way battle?

After the latest debate I said Newt Gingrich won, after calling the previous debate for Cain.  In the latest Rasmussen report it looks like Romney and Gingrich have made a gain on Cain.  Or perhaps more accurately, Gingrich is moving up, and Cain may have peaked and is now returning to the pack.

Has it turned into a three way battle?  Or is this the latest in a series of streaks to the top followed by a fall back to nowhere?  Is Gingrich the latest flavor of the week?

Republicans' Least Objectionable Option

That title can apply to a lot of things but what I have in mind is the GOP candidates for president.  With a very short window until the caucuses and primaries start, it's about time conservatives start getting serious about who to suggest as the eventual nominee in the race to face Obama.  Let's face it, there is no Ronald Reagan in the race this year.  But that's not to say each candidate doesn't have something that they bring to the table.  But since there is no Reagan, a lot of conservatives are thinking they have to hold their nose and select their best available choice.

Who might that be?  The candidate has to be the most conservative, but electable according to William F. Buckley.  I'd expand on that latter category by saying that the candidate has to be charismatic, a great communicator and debate-ready.  The candidate has to go head-to-head with Obama in debates and come out on top.  That's really important.  Obama has to go - at all costs.

Bad News for Bachmann

Michele Bachmann is languishing in the polls since her early straw poll victory in Iowa.  Things just got a little worse for her.  Via Roll Call;

Rep. Michele Bachmann’s entire Granite State team has quit her presidential campaign, according to a report from ABC’s New Hampshire affiliate WMUR. 

The five-member team gave notice because the Minnesota Republican “had not paid sufficient attention to New Hampshire,” the station reported.

 The up side for Bchmann, she wasn't planning on contending in New Hampshire and aside from the bad optics, this probably represents some cost savings for her.

GOP Nevada Debate Winner: Gingrich?

Surprise.

There were some interesting developments in the debate tonight. There were losers and winners and some twists and turns in the running battle between Romney and Perry, something CNN clearly still believes constitute the two front runners in this race.

Romney has it sewn up (or not)

Establishment Romney sheep?  Click to see.

Kristin Powers writing in The Daily Beast argues that the domino effect caused by Florida moving its primary up to January helps Mitt Romney's chances of winning the GOP primary. She sees it as being all about money.  Florida is big, expensive and early and Romney has cash.  Advantage Romney.  I don't see it that way.  Too bad I didn't write about the various impacts of the moves before she did.  Oh wait, I did.  

By the way, Romney sheep are very real.  Luckily they aren't voting in the primaries.

Despite my difference with Powers on the effects of the Florida move, her argument makes some sense.  Although I don't think it's that cut and dried,  there is some merit to the cost argument.  But that's only one facet of the race.

Improbable Political Thriller

If I were writing a political drama something I'd consider writing about a political primary to keep it interesting would be to have a continuing series of headline grabbers one after the other that were worth a chapter and then fizzled out one by one.

Chapter 1: Mike Huckabee declines to run.

Chapter 2: Romney becomes the de facto poll leader of the GOP field. 

Chapter 3: Donald Trump decides he's a Republican, surges in the polls and runs doesn't run. 

Chapter 4: Michele Bachmann wins the Iowa straw poll.

Chapter 5: Rick Perry enters and Bachmann fades away.

Chapter 6: Perry falters in a few debates and looks like he's fading.

Chapter 7: Herman Cain surges.

Chapter 8: Chris Christie thinks about jumping in after flatly stating he's not running.

Chapter 9: Chris Christie surges and fades like Perry.

Chapter 10: Sarah Palin makes her decision to run. 

Chapter 11: Here's where I get stuck - I can't think of a logical ending.

Now that seems like a pretty improbable political thriller.  Implausible even.  Except that's what seems to have happened up to about Chapter 8.  It's been an improbably season but even the prologue is absurd.  Obama started with massive approval and blew it horrifically, even with a fawning press.

Politics is stranger than fiction.