January 1, 2012

The march is on

The day after tomorrow the Iowa caucus kicks off the primary season for the 2012 presidential election.  It's the start of an almost year long march towards the election.  Less important than the implications of that march are the predictions of who might eventually win.  While I intend to look at the overall implications of the race this month, let's start with something less meaningful, since it's less effort on a January 1st morning.

Here's my predictions for early on, for what it's worth (which is very little):

Iowa caucus - Rick Santorum winner (barely), Mitt Romney second, Newt Gingrich  third and Ron Paul fourth.  With so many undecideds, I expect to see Paul falter.  Michele Bachmann will drop out after the Iowa caucus or at latest after New Hampshire

New Hampshire primary - Mitt Romney winner, Jon Huntsman second, Ron Paul third and Newt Gingrich fourth. No real surprises here.

South Carolina - Newt Gingrich winner, Mitt Romney second, Rick Perry third, Rick Santorum fourth.

Florida - I'm not ready to predict this with any level of confidence yet but I think Gingrich and Romney will be neck and neck.

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