February 1, 2016

Fearless predictions about Iowa caucus results

My predictions can best be qualified as "wonky".  That's on a good day. But what the heck, I might as well take a stab at what is going to happen in the Iowa caucuses today/tonight.

2016 seems to be shaping up as the year of the outsiders on both sides.  My predictions are being made in light of that assumption. So they should be relatively obvious. 

Bernie Sanders is trailing Clinton in the latest polling but has rapidly been gaining ground.  I think his momentum will carry him across the finish line first. It'll be close, but I think he's going to win.

On the GOP side, weather impacts aside (snow is expected), I think Trump is going to win.  It'll be a test of how deep his support runs, rather than how wide.  How loyal will his caucus-goers be if the weather is bad, or if the caucus gets heated?  We'll see.  But I think he'll pull it out.  What will be more interesting is to see how the rest of the rank ordering plays out. I think Cruz, Christie and Rubio fare the best and Jeb Bush will do decidedly poorly.

Let's see if I'm right tonight.  Tomorrow is Ground Hog Day, so maybe I'll get to be Bill Murray and get a do-over.

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