March 15, 2016

Ides of March primary predictions

For what it's worth I'll continue to predict primary outcomes despite my tepid results so far.  It seems my strength is not my predictive abilities (to be honest, that's my day job but I ave better tools and more data directly at my disposal) but rather interpreting events and issues through my own conservative lens.

Nevertheless here's my predictions of primary victories.

On the Democratic side with Hillary Clinton leading in most every poll, seemingly a lock in each state, I'm going to pick a couple of upsets:

Ohio - Clinton will earn a narrow win but will take 88 or more of Ohio's 160 delegates
Florida -  Clinton will win handily and take a minimum of 124 of the state's 214 delegates 
Illinois - Sanders will earn a narrow win but take only 70 of the state's total 156 delegates
North Carolina - Clinton will win handily and take 81 or more of the 121 state delegates
Missouri - Sanders will earn a narrow win but both he and Hillary will wind up with 41 delegates

Hillary Clinton will able to claim victory on the night, swallowing up a lot of ground in the delegate count (420+ of 733 by my estimation) and equally importantly eating up the clock giving Sanders still less time to mount a comeback and further to travel to get there.

On the Republican side I'm going to go out on a limb as well.  Why not?

Florida - Trump will romp and take all 99 of the winner take all delegate count.  Rubio staying in as the anti-Trump option for Florida will be regarded by future historians as an all-time classic politcal blunder, both for Rubio and for the forces aligned against Trump. (I'm using aligned tongue-in-cheek here).
Ohio - John Kasich is going to pull this one out and take all 66 delegates.  The biggest loser in this scenario has to be Ted Cruz because Kasich will carry on and ensure Trump wins the delegate race come convention time. Kasich unwittingly will be enabling Trump and crippling the Republican party by splitting the anti-Trump votes and ensuring a brokered convention that will not end will for the GOP.
Illinois - Ted Cruz will upset Trump in Illinois and win up to the state's 69 delegates. The state is winner-take-all but with a twist, so Cruz may not end up with all of the delegates.
North Carolina - Trump wins this 72 delegate state, taking perhaps 2/3 of the proportional delegates with the majority of the remainder going to Cruz.
Missouri - this is going to be a too-close-to-call between Trump and Cruz. The state is a winner-take-most delegates and if my other predictions hold true, this state with 52 delegates could matter significantly.

By my math, Trump could end up with close to 200 delegates. Kasich will win his 66. Cruz' ceiling looks to be about 150 delegates. With 358 delegates up for grabs, it'll be an interesting night for the GOP.

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