Repeal and Replace Setback

Is it really a setback that the first phase of the repeal and replace effort on Obamacare failed?    Yes and No.  The bill was not great even if there were some decent things in it.  It also shows Republicans are not the lockstep drones that Democrats are.  But time is a big factor and not an unlimited resource.  Something needs to be done soon or nothing will be done.   Here are a few reactions - Rand Paul and Newt Gingrich respond.

Harry Reid says what?

Harry Reid has endorsed Paul Ryan for speaker. What?

Harry Reid just gave Paul Ryan an unwelcome endorsement for speaker.

The Democratic leader offered his surprise backing for Ryan (R-Wis.) to assume the House speakership, saying he hopes Ryan runs and wins the job because he's a "Paul Ryan fan."

"He appears to me to be one of the people over there that would be reasonable. I mean look at some of the other people," Reid said. "I don't agree with him on much of what he does. I think what he's done with Medicare and Medicaid, what he's wanted to do I disagree with. But generally speaking we've been able to work with him."

Now that's a head-scratcher. What should Paul Ryan do when the devil endorses him? I think I'd quit pursuing the job.

Budget Deal doesn't sound great

The Washington Post has a rundown on many of the details in the plans to sideline the sequester and return to increased spending from government.  That sentence alone provides enough reason to be skeptical about the deal struck by Paul Ryan and Patty Murray.  But there are other reasons too.

Firstly, spending goes up:

Under the terms of the deal, spending for the Pentagon and other federal agencies would be set at $1.012 trillion for fiscal 2014, midway between the $1.058 trillion sought by Democrats and the $967 billion championed by Republicans. The Pentagon would get a $2 billion increase over last year, while domestic agencies would get a $22 billion bump, clearing space for administration priorities such as fresh investments in education and infrastructure.

More taxes (sorry, 'premiums'), less for student loan recovery (more on that some other time) and less strategic oil reserves:

That cost would be covered through a mix of policies to be implemented over the next decade. They include $12.6 billion in higher security fees for airline passengers, $8 billion in higher premiums for federal insurance for private pensions, $6 billion in reduced payments to student-loan debt collectors and $3 billion saved by not completely refilling the nation’s strategic petroleum reserves.

There will also be some interesting unintended consequences that come out of this. Most notably, the Medicare provision:

On top of sequester replacement, the deal calls for an additional $22 billion in deficit reduction by extending a small part of the sequester into 2022 and 2023. That shift would primarily affect Medicare providers, who would face an additional two years of 2 percent across-the-board cuts.

Curious timing, given the ongoing Obamacare drama. Another area that may lead to some backlash is government pensions:

Another large chunk of savings — $12 billion over the next decade — would come from reduced contributions to federal pensions, split evenly between military retirees and new civilian workers who start after Dec. 31.

It's interesting that the "new civilian workers" might also be younger - the same ones in many cases getting hit by Obamacare. There will likely be some backlash around that as well. However,Democrats may be able to effectively punt that issue (at least the pension portion of it) ahead a number of years as the cumulative impact to younger workers won't be as noticeable on the pension side as on the Obamacare side of the equation.

The deal doesn't sound like much of a win for fiscal conservatives.  The GOP may be plotting to not come across as fiscal extremists leading into a midterm election where they stand a good chance of making gains in both the house and senate.  They are playing it safe politically, even though it may not be what's best for the country and is sure to anger many conservative voters or at least leave a bad taste in their mouths.  

Check out the interesting albeit brief Zero Hedge article on the above graph.

But the Republicans with major victories in 2014 could effectively take control of both houses of congress and be better positioned to make a difference between 2014 and 2016.  If they can pull that off, then this could be regarded as a win.  But that's certainly no guarantee. Given that, the deal is not a great deal for the country or for fiscal sanity, and perhaps not even the GOP.

Democrat Jim McDermott blames victims in IRS scandal

The worst thing a defense attorney can do is blame the victim.  "You were sexually assaulted?  You shouldn't have worn that provocative dress."  Make no mistake, at the Ways and Means Committee hearings on the IRS scandal, Democrat commission members are acting like defense attorneys.  Congressman McDermott is clearly blaming the victim.

I don't want to show the video because it is frankly offensive. But here's the pertinent details via Breitbart;

Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) offered a bizarre defense of the IRS's behavior at a House Ways and Means hearing on Tuesday morning, amounting to an attack on the Tea Party and conservative organizations present as potential money-launderers seeking a tax break from the government, not the exercise of their basic rights.

If the IRS scandal lacked a bully figure, it has one now. McDermott repeated the same attacks on 501(c)4 organizations that other Democrats have recycled in their talking points since the scandal began. But he made the mistake of attacking the witnesses--and misrepresenting the testimony of at least one in particular. All of them, he said, were before Congress because they had been seeking tax subsidies; but as Dr. John Eastman of the National Organization for Marriage--already a tax-exempt organization--had just testified, his specific complaint was about the apparently criminal leak of their donors' names to a liberal organization.

On the other hand, there have been some spirited calling-to-task reprimands from  Republicans in the way the Democrats on the committee are in damage control mode and not their to solve the problem.

Quick Grading GOP Convention Speeches - Day 2

Speech of the night.

A close second.

For comparison, here are my quick assessments from Day 1. 

Unfortunately I missed Rand Paul, so I'll have to update that here after watching a replay.

The speeches tonight were good and certainly from a generally higher profile group than the first night (Christie being the obvious exception yesterday as the keynote speaker, and Abbe Romney also).

John McCain - the speech was okay, but he seemed tired and quite uninspiring.  D

Rob Portman - some great parts and some dull parts, but overall - pretty good. B-

Tim Pawlenty - A lot of good one liners kept the crowd engaged but not on their feet. B

Mike Huckabee - His prior speaking experience showed.  On point, well spoken, and engaging.  B+

Condoleeza Rice - Resolute, stirring and focused on national security which has only been casually mentioned heretofore.  Included the topics of trade and energy and economy and tied it all back to conservative philosophy. Inspired the crowd, and me. Rousing. A+

Susana Martinez - I wouldn't have wanted to follow Condi Rice. But her family success story was inspiring and important.  I wonder if MSNBC showed her. B

Paul Ryan - He hit all the right notes but it was not moving the way Rice's speech was. If it had started a bit more energetically the way it was when it had built up, his would have been the speech of the night. Still, a forward moving speech that was very strong over the latter half.    A

One problem with the plan to destroy Paul Ryan

Liberals have rubbed their hands and started fanning out to spread the meme that Mitt Romney's running mate Paul Ryan is a radical extremist and will destroy Medicare.  They are confident it seems, that Ryan is so radical, that Mitt Romney has just forfeited the election to Obama.

But if Paul Ryan's attempts to save Medicare are so off base and radical, why did this happen?

Source:

Leaked cell phone footage of Bill Clinton cozying up to Paul Ryan

The day after the stunning upset in the special congressional election in upstate New York, Rep. Paul Ryan is a man under fire.

ABC News was behind the scenes with the Wisconsin Congressman and GOP Budget Committee Chairman when he got some words of encouragement none other than former President Bill Clinton.

"So anyway, I told them before you got here, I said I'm glad we won this race in New York," Clinton told Ryan, when the two met backstage at a forum on the national debt held by the Pete Peterson Foundation. But he added, "I hope Democrats don't use this as an excuse to do nothing."

Ryan told Clinton he fears that now nothing will get done in Washington.

"My guess is it's going to sink into paralysis is what's going to happen. And you know the math. It's just, I mean, we knew we were putting ourselves out there. You gotta start this. You gotta get out there. You gotta get this thing moving," Ryan said.

Clinton told Ryan that if he ever wanted to talk about it, he should "give me a call." Ryan said he would.

So Clinton can work with Ryan.  I guess they see Clinton as a radical now too.

Now that it's official, is Ryan the sensible pick?

Mitt Romney has chosen a running mate - Paul Ryan. Was it the right choice? In a lot of ways yes, and in some ways, no.  Here's some quick, top-line thoughts, after the video from the Washington Post:

Bill Whittle, Paul Ryan, Tim Geithner and Martin Short

The debt party can't last.  Bill Whittle explains. Watch for cameos by Paul Ryan, Tim Geithner and Martin Short.  Yes, Martin Short.

For context on the Martin Short appearance:

60 Minutes - Click here for the most popular videos

Lie of the year goes to the Democrats. BUT...

The clearly left-leaning Politifact announced what it sees as the Lie of The Year for 2011.  It turns out the Democrats claim that Republicans voted to end Medicare is a big fat lie. I guess Politifact is trying to remain relevant and appear unbiased.  Too little, too late.  Besides, liberals already are lambasting the decision as well, wrong.

From the L.A. Times, there was this, followed by a reminder that the last two lies belonged to Republicans;

Is the 'Lie of the Year' about ending Medicare actually true?

Oh, okay.  The liberal lie hasn't just collapsed, somebody had a random attack of honesty in the liberal media and it will surely be nipped in the bud.  The L.A. Times notes the quick and unfriendly reactions from the left.

Paul Ryan, expect no apologies.

Confirmed - Gingrich won.

I've been watching Fox News this evening and I watched the CNN post game analysis last night.  Who won the debate depended on who was speaking but the answers seemed to center around Perry, Romney and even Obama.  I called it for Gingrich.  It turns out Frank Luntz did a focus group and it was played on Hannity -  the focus group called winner: Newt Gingrich.  There's no link to the video yet but watch the Hannity replay tonight to see. But I feel confident in saying I spotted the winner and I expect to see the dial move for Gingrich a little bit.  That said...

Regrets, I've had a few: Gingrich on climate ad with Pelosi

Newt Gingrich, wallowing in the shallows of voter disinterest, has decided to come clean. Well, not really.

This is about 2012 - Part 4

Just watch.  Closely.

This is about 2012 - Part 3

Just watch (with an open mind).

New Category of Republicans

What can Brown do for you? Not much. He's no UPS.

Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown has decided to not endorse Paul Ryan's budget plan.  Understandably, in the liberal state of Massachusetts it's hard to be a Republican and do anything.  Especially in the seat formerly known as "Ted Kennedy's seat" and find things to actually be Republican about.  Something.  Anything?

Read Meat Time: Abandoning Gingrich

Newt Gingrich has done a lot of good for the country in the past. Welfare reform and balanced budgets typically attributed erroneously to President Clinton should be credited in large part to Gingrich. But that was over 15 years ago. What has Newt done since? He's done things to alienate himself from the conservative base in what seems to be a misguided effort to own the center. It's a center that he doesn't seem to realize the left has been dragging ever-leftward for the better part of a century.

Video: Path To Prosperity

If you haven't seen the Paul Ryan Path to Prosperity video outlining the Republican 2012 budget in terms of what they are up against, here it is.  This doesn't talk about the specifics of the plan, just the net effect of the spending cuts. It's an important comparison, but it is just the starting point of the coming debate.

I can't quit my day job

On a day when Paul Ryan has proposed a budget plan with $6.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years, a plan that apparently addresses Social Security, Medicare and/or Medicaid, I'm stuck being busy at work - too busy to even read about it, let alone comment.  That's frustrating but I can't quit my day job.

On a day when a government shutdown is a distinct possibility because Democrats are orchestrating just that, I'm too busy to comment, but I can't quit my day job.

Libyan rebels in Brega, the same rebels the Obama administration is both covertly and overtly defending, are taking a pounding from Qadhafi forces, I'm too busy to find out more, but I can't quit my day job.

On a day where Nancy Pelosi is acting hypocritical and exhibiting verbal hyperbole - well that's just normal, never mind that one.

On a day where Obamacare took a Congressional hit via a portion being repealed, I can't do a deep dive into what's going on, but I can't quit my day job.

Unlike a Wisconsin teacher's union protester, I don't know a doctor who can write me a phony doctor's note saying I'm suffering from some illness. 

I can't quit my day job.  In fact I don't really want to quit my day job.  In fact I'm happy to be a productive member of society in the private sector and not a government worker.  In fact those people don't want me to quit my day job either - I have to fund their retirements.