Obama and Let's Go Brandon aides applaud Trump on Iran

So this happened.

Reports that the Iran strike wasn't a success are likely wrong

Marco Rubio has stepped up his game

He was clearly prepared for this interview:

Fragile ceasefire

 Iran and Israel have both violated their peace treaty brokered by president Trump.

Nobody Asked You...

Adam Schiff continues with his buffoonery:

Two Different Approaches

Ukraine bombs military targets, Russia attacks civilians. Israel destroys military targets, Iran targets Israeli people. Two different approaches. It's possible that in the case of Russia, they are trying to destroy morale in Ukraine or the West, or possibly they simply cannot target military targets effectively anymore. In the case of Iran, it's probably just as much in part their hatred of the Jewish people as it is the inability to be more sophisticated in their targeting. In both cases the side of the good guys are winning the wars. But is it just because of the fact that they are the good guys, or is it at least in no small part because they are fighting smarter? 

Case in point:

I'm not sure where this is going

Ultimately, I think that's the point.  Is president Trump just saber rattling? Is he serious about joining Israel in the fight with Iran? If we don't know, neither does Iran's 'supreme leader'. That's the point.

So WWIII might be starting...

Despair not

We are living in precarious times. Iran is threatening war with Israel on perhaps a Biblical level.  Russia continues to try to annex Ukraine. There's seemingly a global market crash either imminent or even in progress. Even every general election poll in RealClearPolitics taken in August has Harris beating Trump; the have ginned up phony momentum to the point that it may actually be having a real effect. None of this is good.

Despite the fact that things look frankly awful, do not despair. There was never going to be a cakewalk for Trump to the Whitehouse; the left would never stand for that. Russia is locked in it's latest version of Afghanistan in the Ukraine and is spending lives, treasure and time it cannot afford to spend. And in Israel, Iran will not be successful. The U.S. will not allow Iran to succeed. In fact, Russia is likely fomenting Iranian action in the hopes of diverting Western aid to Ukraine.  Not a bad strategy but not one that will be successful long term.

Remember, we are the good guys. God is on our side.

Iran planned to assassinate Trump too?

How you know you're on the side of good by supporting Trump for president: Iran wants to kill him.

So they increased security and a 20 year old almost succeeded.  Kim Cheadle must be fired.

Iranian president killed in helicopter crash

In case you missed it, the Iranian president died in a helicopter crash.  Why they are calling him a martyr (a person who is killed because of their religious or other beliefs), I don't know.  Did someone not want the dam opened that he had visited?

Is it because they were using an American helicopter that was unable to get spare parts for due to sanctions? If so, if they want to blame America and mark Raisi as a martyr, the obvious question is: "Why were you using a helicopter provided by the 'Great Satan' in the first place?"

Israel response imminent?

How soon until Israel responds to the drone and missile attacks from Iran?  Probably not long.

Escalation in the Middle East

U.S. and Iran leaning into the regional conflict between Israel and Hamas:

Stay safe (no thanks to Let's Go Brandon)

It's Friday the 13th, and more importantly a Day of Jihad (?).  Live your life and don't live in fear, but be smart about it today.

This doesn't help - thank you Let's Go Brandon for funding terrorists through Iran while leaving the border wide open:

Geopolitics of Hamas and Israel

Remember when president Trump was leading the United States and Middle Eastern countries were signing peace deals with Israel?  Good times, good times. But after Let's Go Brandon 'acquired' 81 million votes to become president one of the things he's done was to give Iran $6 billion because apparently he can't give everything to Ukraine.  Anyway, Iran is a primary sponsor of Hamas, and weeks after the 'humanitarian aid' Hamas rains down rockets on Israel.  This is not a coincidence. It's not even stupidity on Let's Go Brandon's part.  There are a lot of Hamas sympathizers in his inner circle. It is at a minimum unintentionally deliberate.

Here's Peter Zeihan's take (keep in mind he's a Democrat-leaning analyst and is giving Let's Go Brandon credit for the work the Trump administration did in the Middle East.  Otherwise the fallout and what to look for portion of his take is worth noting).

Peter Zeihan's 3 Takeaways from Russia's Usage of Iranian Drones

 The big one is that Russia seems desperate.

Dictator Watch - Butcher of Tehran is new Iranian president

 Well, this is not good news. 

Dictator Watch - New Iranian genocide edition

There has not enough coverage of this new Iranian genocide underway now.  Calls for regime change are mounting however.

Iran's hyperinflation canary in the coal mine

I came across this video this morning on what hyperinflation looks like in Iran.  Iran was facing challenges already because of the sanctions imposed by president Trump.  The video, while informative I think misses the mark on the primary reason for the hyperinflation. Yes, sanctions do contribute to inflation. And the video below shows the impact on Iranians.

As sanctions are imposed it does become harder to get goods, particularly imported goods.  As a result, the scarcity causes prices to rise.  But Venezuela had hyperinflation long before the Trump sanctions started on it.

What else causes inflation?  The money supply.  As a result of COVID, governments around the world, forcing people to stay home, impacting jobs and the economy, started printing money to hand out.  Iran was no exception.

Iran Money Supply M2 was reported at 827.660 USD bn in Mar 2021. This records an increase from the previous number of 787.998 USD bn for Feb 2021. Iran Money Supply M2 data is updated monthly, averaging 223.363 USD bn from Dec 1999 to Mar 2021, with 256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 827.660 USD bn in Mar 2021 and a record low of 40.504 USD bn in Mar 2002.

In January 2020, pre-pandemic lockdowns worldwide, the money supply in Iran was approximately 550 USD bn.  That means that in the following 18 months the money supply in Iran grew by approximately 50.5%.  Whether that was as a result of the pandemic or sanctions or a combination of the two is relatively immaterial.  The point is to look at what it has done to the economy and people in Iran.  

For hyperinflation Iran is the canary in the coal mine, not Venezuela.  Not because Venezuela doesn't show what hyperinflation can do to ravage an economy and impoverish a citizenry, it clear does show us that.  No the reason the Iran situation is the canary in the coal mine is because the change is relatively recent.  Further, Iran's money supply situation is not unique.  It's a bit extreme compared to some of the more robust economies around the globe but not drastically so.  I took a look at the growth in M2 money supply for the top 12 world economies since January of 2020, pre-pandemic lockdowns compared to the latest available data.  

Compare these numbers to Iran's 50% increase they don't seem too bad. Maybe not terrible for China, Japan and Germany, but the USA and Brazil are at 30%!   In the United States, 1 out of every 4 dollars in circulation has been printed in the last 15 months.  When you increase the money supply by 30% but the economy on COVID recovery is only growing by 6%, that means there are 30% more dollars chasing 6% more goods and services.  As a result, inflation is inevitable.

What does this mean for inflation in the United States? Will it reach levels being seen in Iran?  Probably not.  But will it be bad?  Probably.  Inflation could reach 10% to 15% in the U.S.  That's going to be a shock to the economy and those claiming the inflation will be transitory (like the Federal Reserve) do not appear to have a Plan B in case it isn't transitory.  They can't raise interest rates (which is a brake on inflation) because the U.S. government has generated so much debt it could not afford to pay the interest on the higher rates for its debt.  They are either stuck, or they have another way out (which is a discussion for another time).

The same  situation is true for the other 11 biggest global economies to varying degrees and it will all be exacerbated by smaller economies, many of which have more Iran-like money supply issues.  No one is going to be immune to the inflation because it will be on a global or near-global scale.  The United States did itself no favors by being among the most aggressive money-printers of the Big 12 but they will not be alone in suffering the consequences.  Where Iran has gone, others will surely be following.

Sabotage in Iran?

Not just sabotage, a series of explosions:



Who could be behind this? Internal insurgents? Israel? The United States?