It Starts: Wall Street predicts Trump tariffs failure

The message; it's coming. Never mind all of the foreign investment deals, never mind the jobs numbers, never mind the illegal immigration trickle, and all signs pointing to a coming boom.  The Wall Street Journal is here to tell you that the crash is coming... yeah.

There are a lot of reasons that this is surface level drivel. A recession is not coming.  Quote me. And quote them on their 0% growth projection.

Despair not

We are living in precarious times. Iran is threatening war with Israel on perhaps a Biblical level.  Russia continues to try to annex Ukraine. There's seemingly a global market crash either imminent or even in progress. Even every general election poll in RealClearPolitics taken in August has Harris beating Trump; the have ginned up phony momentum to the point that it may actually be having a real effect. None of this is good.

Despite the fact that things look frankly awful, do not despair. There was never going to be a cakewalk for Trump to the Whitehouse; the left would never stand for that. Russia is locked in it's latest version of Afghanistan in the Ukraine and is spending lives, treasure and time it cannot afford to spend. And in Israel, Iran will not be successful. The U.S. will not allow Iran to succeed. In fact, Russia is likely fomenting Iranian action in the hopes of diverting Western aid to Ukraine.  Not a bad strategy but not one that will be successful long term.

Remember, we are the good guys. God is on our side.

A spate of horrible economic news

A recession could be coming. No, is coming. But here's the thing, they may have the wrong time frame on this.  A recession is inevitable and the recessionary impact is bound to be big, just when is what I question.

Bad retail sales report, bad!

There's a lot to unpack today and not enough time to do so.  Instead,  I'll just share some highlights across a few posts, starting of with some retail expert fears about a really bad recession, like 1970's level bad.  

More bad news with the retail sales report.

Could it be that the Fed's fighting inflation will lead to more quarters of negative GDP?  Absolutely. Higher interest rates are a clear way to slow the economy, and we are already in a technical recession.  Could this recession be one that doesn't hurt employment?   Given the baby boom retirement and a lack of replacement population to fill those jobs, again, absolutely. 

Could it be a stagflation situation?  Given the above two points, absolutely. What will be weird is a combination of high interest rates, with inflation, negative GDP, lower retail sales and yet unfilled jobs and low unemployment.  In that scenario, low unemployment is not a good apple among the bad; it's a recipe for upward pressure on wages and further inflation.  It's a potential feedback loop.  There's a lot to be worried about, even if the GOP win the congress and senate, this track we're on, we may already be too far down it to make a difference in the near term.

Recession revision, but still...

 Second quarter GDP - still down.  Recession is still a reality.

Joe Rogan on weasels gaslighting us

 Joe Rogan on non-recession gaslighting:

"We're in a recession"

Jim Rickards, lawyer, economist and investment banker, says we're ina recession and it's going to get worse. I agree. When you top it off with inflation, we are entering a Jimmy Carter-esque level of malaise.  No amount of denial and distraction will get the Democrats out of this hole.

It's. A. Recession.

 Janet Yellen may be the worst anything-to-do-with-economics person EVER.  It's a recession.

Let me get this straight...

The 40 year high in inflation, not being problematic enough, we have very likely also fallen into a recession (we'll know tomorrow). Except they say it's not a recession, trying to alter the definition to fit their narrative. And the Federal Reserve, behind the curve on addressing inflation, was reasonably expected to play catch up and potentially raise interest rates by a full 1% this week.  Except Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, clearly spooked by the existence of recession, backed up a bit and raised interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) instead of the needed 100 bps (1%).  But that can't be, because there "really isn't a recession".

So that means they don't think inflation is all that bad? Right?

Or more clearly, they are all just lying to you.

Is the economic hurricane started?

A good summary below of why an economic hurricane might have started.  I'm no apocalypse alarmist but the underlying 'fundamentals' of the economy are unusually weak.

What's up next in the economy?

Is inflation over? Is the stock market correction going to turn into a bear market? Is there a recession coming?  Here's an opinion I disagree with.  Calling for 2%-3% inflation by year end is nuts unless the economy dips into a really deep recession. I'm more inclined to agree with the second opinion from (Teddy Weisberg) here.

US Q1 2022 GDP down 1.4%

 Are we headed into a recession? Probably. Worse yet, stagflation is nigh.  Tim Pool's take:

I'm richer than you - I must be the 1%

It's true.  For the first time EVAH*, Canadians are now richer than Americans. True, I'm not really feeling it myself personally despite reducing my debt ratio considerably over the last few years.  Nevertheless, relatively speaking, I'm probably better off compared to the average American than before Obama became president.

Americans might enjoy throwing politically-charged barbs at their neighbors to the north, Canadians now have at least one reason to be smug.

For the first time in recent history, the average Canadian is richer than the average American, according to a report cited in Toronto's Globe and Mail.

And not just by a little. Currently, the average Canadian household is more than $40,000 richer than the average American household. The net worth of the average Canadian household in 2011 was $363,202, compared to around $320,000 for Americans.

While Canada weathered the recession better than the United States, has a lower unemployment rate, a conservative government and Nobama, things aren't all peachy here either.  However, it goes to show you how poorly the Democrats have mismanaged the recession and botched the recovery.  They just wouldn't get out of the way and let the economy recover naturally.  Way to go guys.

It won't be long before the Occupy crowd decide to Occupy Canada as part of the 1%.

*Apparently EVAH in this case means recent history. 

I've Got A Feeling

I've got a feeling that there is going to be a double dip portion of Obama's recession this year.  I'm not saying that because of the price of oil, or the European debt crisis or the bursting of a bubble in China.  Nor is it because of a problem in the domestic housing market, or the national debt or the potential of inflationary pressure because of the actions of the Federal Reserve.

It's entirely anecdotal.  But today a company that I used to work for went through another round of layoffs - something they've done annually for the last three years - except that they did it every year in the October window.  They just finished a bonus round of layoffs in the spring - today.  And they're not the only one I have insight into personally.  In Canada and the United States I've heard a lot of tales of layoffs over the last three months and in a few different industries - finance, aviation and telecommunication.

It's hard and typically not wise to take anecdotal evidence and assume that it represents a broader picture.  It's a recipe for misreading the bigger picture.  Nevertheless, my anecdotal evidence covers two countries and and three industries and quite a few people.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I've got a feeling that a we are headed into another recessionary period.  That's very bad news, but the silver lining is that it may mean no more Obama after the election.

Baltic Dry Index - What Recovery?

The Baltic Dry Index is a measure of shipping volume and is considered by many to be a precursor to future economic activity and hence recession or recovery.  Apologists for BDI weakness claim a number of reasons for it's softness.  MJ Perry at Carpe Diem first made me aware of it back in 2009, and while he seems to be at times a proponent of strong free market capitalism, his apologist nature for BDI recovery is ringing hollow.  

Geithner threatens a recession.

Guy in a Bigfoot suit: just as relevant

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner had the nerve to say that if the debt ceiling wasn't raised, there was a real danger of a double dip recession.  Those two things have next to nothing to do with each other.  A double dip is possible based on poor economic decisions of this administration and previous Congresses.   Nevertheless, Geithner says raise the debt ceiling or else...

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said if Congress fails to lift the debt ceiling and the U.S. defaults on its obligations “this abrupt contraction would likely push us into a double dip recession,” painting the most explicitly dire prediction to date of the consequences of inaction.

Don't worry, I have a solution for Mr. Geithner.  Just have the president issue everyone a waiver on the recession.  He should be used to it by now.

My recession is over

Soon to be unemployed.

NOTE:  This post is personal and entirely anecdotal and personal in nature.

Back in late November I got let go from a company I'd worked at for five and half years.  I wasn't overly worried - I got an excellent severance package and support from friends both local and over the web.  Not only did I have time to find work, I had a number of leads to work with.  Consequently I didn't have to work too hard to find new employment.  

The President wants a tax cuts deal. But so what?

The President really wants to extend the Bush tax cuts for the middle class. But not for what he calls the rich. At least not permanently. Should the GOP bite? In a word, no.

Home Foreclosures Higher Than At A Recovery Level

September home foreclosures while down from August were still dramatically higher than the same month last year. And it's not like August was a low bar - July and August were the two highest foreclosure months ON RECORD.  The reality is that while unemployment is a lagging economic indicator, in the consumer arena, foreclosures lags unemployment - lose your job then lose your house. The same cannot be said to be true on the business side; foreclosures can happen prior to bankruptcy and can be part of the ultimate cause of death.

Why the high foreclosure rate? The Community Reinvestment Act. Blame Carter, Clinton, Dodd and a slew of other Democrats for imposing, expanding and propping up this boondoggle as part of an exercise in social engineering. Home ownership for all is as utopian as a no-money world. As a result of pushing this goal they created an unsustainable housing bubble, which inevitably burst. A recession that involves an inordinate number of underqualified home owners, many now out of work, and the threat of inflation ominously set to drive interest rates up thereby exacerbating the problem.

What does it mean for the economy?  Well it certainly doesn't help things.  And the government cannot do everything despite the White House belief that it can.  They cannot hold the flood gates forever;

Last week, the Obama administration hailed a milestone in its mortgage relief effort, reporting that 500,000 homeowners have received help since the program was launched in March. But new defaults are still exceeding the number of borrowers getting help.

Mortgage companies have slowed down the pace of foreclosures as they evaluate whether borrowers qualify for the administration's program. Analysts, however, forecast that many of those homeowners won't qualify, and foresee a new wave of foreclosed properties hitting the market next year. That's likely to further depress home prices.

 I'm still betting on a W-shaped recovery, with a long U shape in the right hand side dip of the W.  There's too many fundamental problems to assume that Wall Street will lead the way out of the recession. Hopefully I'm wrong, unfortunately I'm not optimistic.

Why we need Obama

If ever a conservative were to wonder why we need President Obama, this graph explains it all:

That should about explain it for you.  See, the mainstream media are right about the President - he's simply amazing.  The graph proves it.  It's a good thing that recovery act (ARRA) passed and kept unemploment below 8%.