A change is gonna come

This is anecdotal, but probably telling nonetheless:

Don't fall for the anecdotal

In 2016, Donald Trump won the presidency, somewhat handily, despite the deep state collusion against him.  I was skeptical because of polling, despite the anecdotal evidence that he was drawing huge crowds, and people were responding enthusiastically.  Polling was predominantly not on his side.  I figured it was going to be a close election, not a Hillary Clinton blowout. I thought either candidate could win but it would be close.  The anecdotal evidence of crowds and the enthusiasm gap proved to be correct.

With the same situation in 2020 with president Trump drawing large crowds and Let's Go Brandon sequestered in a basement somewhere or talking to a dozen or so cars it was tempting to fall for a president Trump blowout win.  I did.  So did many other pundits.  The anecdotal evidence was clearly incorrect that time around.  

As conservatives it seems like we are relying on the anecdotal again, heading into 2024.  While I want this to be true as much as the next MAGA Republican supporter, we can't fall for it being the narrative, and certainly not rely on it.  We are no longer in 2016 and we have seen the lengths the left and the deep state are willing to go to prevent his winning again.  We cannot fight the battle 2016 style. It won't work.

As heartening as it is to see that, it's not a strategy.

I've Got A Feeling

I've got a feeling that there is going to be a double dip portion of Obama's recession this year.  I'm not saying that because of the price of oil, or the European debt crisis or the bursting of a bubble in China.  Nor is it because of a problem in the domestic housing market, or the national debt or the potential of inflationary pressure because of the actions of the Federal Reserve.

It's entirely anecdotal.  But today a company that I used to work for went through another round of layoffs - something they've done annually for the last three years - except that they did it every year in the October window.  They just finished a bonus round of layoffs in the spring - today.  And they're not the only one I have insight into personally.  In Canada and the United States I've heard a lot of tales of layoffs over the last three months and in a few different industries - finance, aviation and telecommunication.

It's hard and typically not wise to take anecdotal evidence and assume that it represents a broader picture.  It's a recipe for misreading the bigger picture.  Nevertheless, my anecdotal evidence covers two countries and and three industries and quite a few people.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I've got a feeling that a we are headed into another recessionary period.  That's very bad news, but the silver lining is that it may mean no more Obama after the election.

Good years start badly. (GOP Edition)

Through anecdotal evidence from my own life, I have noticed that if a year starts out well it turns out poorly and if it starts out on a bad note, it turns out to be a great year.  Hopefully that turns out to be true for the GOP as the year is starting out pretty poorly for them.  Let me catch up on a few items as evidence.

President Obama is working his way around the Constitution on what he and the media are positioning as recess appointments (for example Richard Cordray) - except the Senate is not in recess, it's in session, pro-forma.  A technicality perhaps, but there are now legal questions that the GOP will probably avoid raising for feat of being portrayed as petty obstructionists rather than upholders of the Constitution.  Wonderful.