Second quarter GDP - still down. Recession is still a reality.
Showing posts with label revisions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label revisions. Show all posts
August 25, 2022
August 29, 2018
Q2 2018 GDP revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% - election impact?
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| Nope. |
President Trump's tax cuts are still winning. Remember when Obama was president and the revisions were always downward? Ya, not now, and people feel it.
Is a midterm blue wave coming? I still don't see it. I'm not saying that you should expect a Republican upset romp like you saw the upset of the century when president Trump trounced Hillary Clinton (unexpectedly). But I would be less surprised by that than by a blue wave. I'm expecting modest changes in either direction at this point. In other words a draw. The GOP should pick up seats in the senate, congress I'm thinking will be relatively unchanged. So far.
What it comes down to is whether the Russia collusion garbage outweighs the good economic numbers and real-world impacts of the president's tax policy changes. I suspect how much both of those matter to voters depends largely on voters' existing political leanings. In other words this is a base election plus the relative importance of those two issues on independents. My money is on the fact that enough independent voters will vote with their wallets because at the end of the day, that's what matters. The evidence of that was the election results of 2016.
August 4, 2011
Revisions, revisions
Perhaps we weren't paying attention when the unemployment rate was below 6% under President Bush, but there seems to be revision after revision, usually for the worse, and well enough after the fact that to go deliberately unnoticed by the media. The unemployment rate has, during the Obama administration, been revised upward a number of times following a supposed improvement in the rate. The next month, with a new rate out, an addendum frequently updates the previous month's rate, typically it's been upward.
Labels:
GDP,
jobless claims,
manipulation,
political,
revisions,
unemployment
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