Latest polls shifting? Fear not.

Recently there's been a spate of polls showing Let's Go Brandon improving versus president Trump.  These recent polls all have a leftward tilt associated with their pollsters. As a premise to count undocumented harvested ballots, it's a great way to lay the groundwork for cheating. The narrative Let's Go Brandon has been surging of late, does make a great story for the left.

Honestly, I'm fine with the narrative because it keeps Let's Go Brandon on the ballot in place of sinister Gavin Newsom.  Short of the premise for cheating, it only serves as a salve for wounded lefty hearts.   The reason not to worry at this point is simple - what has been different that has caused Let's Go Brandon to dramatically surge to within striking distance of Trump?

I'll give you a few minutes to ponder that and realize the answer is "absolutely nothing".  So no reason for a surge, ergo no real surge. Sure polls will shift, they can even change direction.  But this makes zero sense.  And then there are the state polls.

Here's why you don't need to worry just yet, according to Red Eagle Politics:

Surface level vs. underlying meaning

This is a great take by Red Eagle Politics.

B'uh bye Kevin

Kevin McCarthy, not sorry to see you go. Via Red Eagle Politics:

There are elections today

Red Eagle Politics predicts some state level elections being held today. In today's off the rails woke climate, every single election matters.

President Trump, comeback kid

Red Eagle Politics says president Trump is in line for an epic comeback:

Can Republicans win the 2024 popular vote?

Does it matter?  Technically no, but in terms of morale, in terms of public perception, it kinda does.  So is it possible? Red Eagle Politics opines. 

The downfall will come

Red Eagle Politics discusses Let's Go Brandon trying to imprison his 2024 election rival.  As he says, this will backfire (spectacularly). President Trump did nothing wrong by the way.

Senate 2024 update

 Via Red Eagle Politics, a look at the 2024 senate race situation:

Is the Red Wave going to be real?

 Red Eagle Politics seems to think so:

I tend to agree but I'm not sure of the size.  I would not be surprised by a massive tsunami or by a slim victory.  There's a huge range of possible outcomes remaining.

Red Eagle Politics' House predictions

Red Eagle Politics latest predictions on House elections in the coming 2022 midterm elections.  Does he see a wave coming? Take a look:

I'm hoping he's close and if he's off, he's undercounting Republican gains.

June 14th primaries summarized

Red Eagle Politics does a wonderful job summarizing the June 14th primaries, which were a mixed bag for conservatives, but generally a good sign:

Midterm prediction day (part 1)

Today I'm going to share a number of midterm predications even though we are about 6 months out from the elections.  First up is Red Eagle Politics.  I don't always agree with him on political issues (though mostly I do), but he does his research and knows his stuff.

Some 2022 senate midterm predictions

 Red Eagle Politics updated prediction on the 2022 senate midterms.

Good news

I haven't posted since Sunday, it's been an extremely busy week for me for a number of reasons, and it continues to be the case. In the interim, here's a good news projection for the 2022 election cycle from Red Eagle Politics.

The downside of the story is that thanks to some poor redistricting in some states, and some regional entrenchment, there is an upper boundary to how many seats the GOP can pick up in congress and the senate.  It doesn't matter if a GOP candidate in a liberal district loses 51-49 instead of 71-29.  A loss is a loss.  Speaking of which, state redistricting in Republican states was not as aggressive as it should have been.  So here's some free advice for state and local Republicans -  when you win, act like winners!! The Democrats have no compunction about doing so and that's why you are always ceding ground, not taking ground in the Overton window battle. Oh and conservative voters; you have to be more involved.  Get involved in the primaries and elect conservatives not RINOs. Just my two cents.

On other damper on the good tidings; this is January not November.  There's lots of time for things to change, for the better or worse. 

Is it going to be a red wave in 2022?

 Here are three views on what is going to happen in the midterm elections. First Tim Pool explains why he sees a red wave coming.

Next, Red Eagle Politics discusses what he sees as the best case for Republicans in 2022 in the senate and governorship races:

And lastly, the left-leaning Let's Talk Elections has a reasonable assessment of what he sees as the 2022 senate scenario that's shaping up.  Kudos to him for being even-handed in his assessment.

Keep in mind it's still very early.  But the tea leaves in the form of the generic ballot are currently leaning Republican (which is rare in polls), and the Let's Go Brandon sentiment is also quite strong at the moment.  There would have to be something very positive for Democrats on the horizon to swing the mood in the opposite direction it's headed now. And I don't think that's going to happen.

Red Tide, maybe?

 Red Eagle Politics on the chances of the Republicans re-taking the senate in 2022.

What happened in NM01?

What happened in New Mexico congressional district 1?  Many Republicans voters were expecting an upset surprise win for the GOP.  Nope.  They underperformed.  

But is that really a surprise?  No Trump endorsement, no big spending from Republicans, a lackluster candidate.

Red Eagle Politics takes up the case:

Maine rule Georgia. Wait, what? Why?

This is wrong.  Georgia is bluer than it used to be but it is not a blue state.  It's a conservative state.  Applying the electoral method of Maine to Georgia is a defeatist idea.  I like Red Eagle Politics but this is reactionary, and not a well thought out idea.

Unless, you do it with California.  Then you are talking something I could get behind.  Think on offense, not defense.

My predictions have been wrong all along (slightly)

Two days ago I pointed out that if the polls in 2020 had 85% of the same October bias as did the polls in October 2016, Trump was leading Biden at 247 to 243 electoral college votes with 48 electoral college undecided. Today, with the same bias level,  and giving Virginia, New Mexico and all of Maine to Biden, Trump is leading Biden 264 to 260 with only New Hampshire and Minnesota remaining undecided.  

If Trump  gets Maine District 2 and wins New Hampshire, he actually gets to 269 - the dreaded tie scenario if Biden were to win Minnesota.  However I took a closer look at North Carolina which I was seeing as perilously close.  If Trump were to win that he would actually have enough electoral college votes to win the election even without New Hampshire and Main District 2.

It got me thinking - I'm applying both my own view of the 2016 bias as well as the 538 pollster bias. I could be double counting the bias.  But thanks to a video (I cannot relocate the exact one) from Red Eagle Politics (a great YouTube channel worth checking out), I decided to take a closer look at the 538 pollster bias ratings. As was pointed out on the video I saw, the pollster ratings provided by 538 are kind of suspect. The New York Times/Siena polls are rated as a +0.7% bias towards - Republicans??? 

Looking Just at North Carolina polls in October 2016, they had Clinton +2 (late September) and Clinton +8 (late October).  In their poll of the last three days before the election they rated it a 44-44 tie, with a margin of error +/-3.5% (their CYA poll).  In North Carolina in 2016 Trump won 49.8 to 46.2.  That represents a victory of 3.6%, actually just outside their margin of error. And in fact, they underrepresented the Trump support by 5.8% and Clinton by 2.2%.  Clearly (1) they got it wrong by even their own Margin of Error on 1 of the 2 data points as well as the overall result, and (2) how the hell are they rated Republican +0.7%? What is that rating based on? Perhaps congressional polling results? It doesn't matter, their bias factor clearly cannot be  attributable to upcoming election at a presidential level. That's just one example, and I found others.

The takeaway - The 538 pollster bias is sketchy at best, and I am backing it out of my calculations.

Stay tuned for a revised update of my polling-adjusted view of the electoral college situation later today. That's not to say all of the 538 data is bunk.  The do provide a pollster grade rating that is, for the most part, reasonable - especially when it comes to lesser known pollsters.  I will still be filtering out those pollsters that they have rated below a C+.  That may be a generous inclusion of me when it comes to certain pollsters, but I do still have other means of filtering out garbage polls (old polls, Margin of error issues, sample sizes to small for example) and those will remain intact. 

I expect my look later today will be more accurate than what I have been showing and I expect it to break slightly more in Trump's favor.