January 11, 2022

Inflation is going to hurt

The inflation rate in the United States has passed the point of V1 (that's the term that pilots use to indicate takeoff speed) inflation. Under president Trump inflation had an annual rate of 2.1% in 2017, 2.4% in 2018, 1.8% in 2019, 1.2% in 2020. Let's Go Brandon took office in January of 2021.  In that month the rate of inflation was 1.4%.  Since then it's taken flight.  In April the rate of inflation jumped from 2.6% to 4.2%.   They said it was transitory as things went back to normal following COVID.

Then in May it hit 5%, in June and July 5.4%, after a 0.1% drop in August it returned to 5.4% in September.  That's really bad. In October it hit 6.2% and in November 6.8%.  That's the worst rate of inflation since 1982.  But it's not over. The rate for December 2021 will be released tomorrow morning.  Don't expect it to be good.  It may be lower than November, but I doubt it.  In the end though it won't matter because the inflation rate for 2022 is going to be much higher than it will have been for 2021.  The Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars during the COVID crisis. The Democrats meanwhile have tried to massively increase spending but have so far settled for less (not for lack of trying though). You cannot have that amount of dollar bills arbitrarily added to the system and not have each dollar that exists be worth slightly less as a result.  You have diluted the value of each dollar bill.  That causes inflation.  It's going to be bad.  My hope is that it is not going to be unbelievably bad, but I'm leaning towards slight pessimism at this point.

Jeff Booth, despite claiming he's an optimist, seems to be even more pessimistic than me, at least in the near to mid term.

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