October 28, 2020

Predicting the presidential race comes down to belief

The 2020 election comes down belief. I'm not taking just who believes in their candidate.  I'm talking about predicting who is going to win depends on what and who you believe.  The pols seem wonky and over-dramatically pro-Biden. But that's what I believe. I believe that man cannot generate enthusiasm.  Then again, you might believe there's a rabid anti-Trump enthusiasm that overshadows Biden himself.

Maybe there's a revenge factor for Democrats who really, really wanted Hillary Clinton to  win.  Conversely Trump supporters have a reason for revenge of their own - 4 years of phony impeachment to oust a duly elected president.

Now election  prediction - that's a different sort of beliefs, going back to what you believe about the polls.  In 2016 they were wrong. Badly wrong.  Oh, granted in the final days they got close. But that was right at the end.  I pointed this out yesterday.  The real question is: "Is the same thing happening again in 2020"? It's hard to believe that the Democrats chose a candidate that is even more lackluster than Hillary Clinton was, but they actually did it. So yes, I believe that the polling is again in 2020 either erroneous or deliberately misleading.  How much so?

That's the real question. I'm seeing some truly dramatic election impacts if the reasonable and recent polls (margin of error less than 4.3%, done in the last 13 days and by reasonably reputable pollster) are scaled to the same level of bias (or less) compared to how off they were in 2016.

For example, if the polls are only 80% as biased towards Biden as the were to Hillary. Biden has almost won.  In this scenario he probably gets all of the states that cannot be called based on polling, except maybe Iowa and ends up 305 electoral college votes - a solid win.  However, in order to ensure that he wins the level of bias would have to drop all the way to 45% where Biden would also capture Florida.

But if the bias is 85% of the Clinton bias, Trump is actually leading right now.  And interestingly, Pennsylvania is the first state to flip from Biden to Trump's column.

At 90% of the Clinton bias in polls applied to 2020, North Carolina flips from Biden to Trump as well, but he still has not won.

At a bias level in late October 2020 matching that of October 2016, Michigan flips and Trump wins.

If there is zero bias in the polls Biden has 308 electoral votes and likely garners most of the 48 undecided states. His potential ceiling is 356 electoral college votes.  That shows this is definitely a matter of belief.  After all the bias could be even worse this time around. Biden is less energizing than Hillary Clinton was, right?  If the bias is 125% of what Hillary got in October 2016, Trump get 288 electoral votes comfortably and at possibly 28 of the undecided 48 undecided states (where the polling is just not sufficient to make a plausible call), for a total of 316 electoral college votes.

What do you believe? The polls are right, or close, or wrong?  That's what leads to an inability to make a reasonable prediction right now and we are less than a week away.

For the record, I see no evidence that the pollsters recognized and adjusted their methodologies from 2016. As a result, I believe Trump is going to win (minus any cheating). I just don't know how soundly he is going to win. My hope is that it's enough to overcome any potential "insurance policies" on the part of the left.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Disagreement is always welcome. Please remain civil. Vulgar or disrespectful comments towards anyone will be removed.

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Share This