October 12, 2022

Inflation is not done

 Via CNBC, this unsurprising (to many) bit of news:

Wholesale prices rose more than expected in September despite Federal Reserve efforts to control inflation, according to a report Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The producer price index, a measure of prices that U.S. businesses get for the goods and services they produce, increased 0.4% for the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain.

That means more rate hikes are likely to come: 

Inflation has been the economy’s biggest issue over the past year as the cost of living is running near its highest level in more than 40 years.
The Fed has responded by raising rates five times this year for a total of 3 percentage points and is widely expected to implement a fourth consecutive 0.75 percentage point increase when it meets again in three weeks.
“Inflationary momentum has built up in the U.S. economy and will persist near-term, keeping the Fed hiking aggressively,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.
...Wednesday’s data shows the Fed still has work to do. Indeed, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester on Tuesday said “there has been no progress on inflation.” Following the PPI release, traders priced in an 81.3% chance of a three-quarter point hike, the same as a day ago.

Tomorrow the more broadly followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September gets released.  It tends to lag behind the PPP, so a decrease tomrrow still does not portend the end of inflation or aneasing of The Fed's aggressive rate hiking to combat inflation.  More pain to come. 

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