September 30, 2024

Some people are simply vapid


Some people, as you can see in the video below, are simply vapid.  And so too is Kamala Harris.  And apparently, vapid attracts vapid. Maybe that's why they want to vote for her.

People realizing Trump racism is media manufactured fake news

Trump is not racist and people are awakening to that fact.

This needed to be done

Robert Reich is no economic guru, despite the clout he has in that field. He doesn't require a debunking per se, but Thomas Sowell does the right thing by not allowing Reich's half-baked ideas to go unchallenged:

September 29, 2024

September 27, 2024

Could have been so much worse

I'm going to give the Democrats credit, as evil as the party is, they could have been far, far worse in how they handled the Let's Go Brandon failure as a candidate.  Not only could they have been far more sinister, they could have dramatically altered the course of the election.

Imagine if instead of installing Kamala Harris after a horrible, early Let's Go Brandon debate performance, instead the Democrats had allowed Brandon to make it to the convention, and to the second debate before realizing that Brandon could not win.  

Then what? Instead of allowing the Secret Service to fail to protect Donald Trump, they could have orchestrated an assassination attempt on Let's Go Brandon and then installed Kamala Harris afterwards. That would have been so much worse:

  • They could have avoided the appearance of being anti-Democratic and installing Kamala Harris the way they did.  By responding to an assassination they would look like the victims rather than Trump looking like the victim of a deep state plot
  • They could have continued to blame "crazed far-right lunatics" for the violence in the country, and blamed the GOP for their supposedly "heated rhetoric", thereby taking all the heat off their own crazy-talk anti-Trump rhetoric
  • The effect of waiting for later to install Harris as the nominee would be the artificial poll bump that Harris received would have occurred closer to election day. When that bump inevitably ebbed it would perhaps still have lingered enough to have a slightly positive Democrat impact on the election outcome
All of that combined would have dramatically shifted the election in a different direction than the current trajectory.

But none of that transpired. The Democrats were either not that evil, not that smart, or not that patient. I happen to think that at the elite levels, they are indeed that evil. I'm glad they didn't have the foresight to consider that option and that the Let's Go Brandon debate failure was so acute, they had to react in a knee-jerk panic sort of way.  It could have been so much worse otherwise.

September 25, 2024

Trump: Something real.

America's trade imbalance is complicated. It's not a sustainable situation long term.  Donald Trump has a plan, right or wrong, it will have an impact.  Kamala Harris' plan? "Look, I was raised a middle class kid..." That's a soundbite, that is not a plan.  It's meaningless, yet it's her answer to every economic question.

Take away the complexity of tariffs, what Trump is proposing will have a real impact; it will either save jobs or if John Deere decides to offshore manufacturing regardless of the tariffs, they will face a massive increase in the cost of production.  That cost will be passed on to consumers. The consumers will choose alternatives and John Deere will face declining sales and ultimately, likely, hardship.

In other words, Trump is doing something real. Harris cannot even fathom something real.

September 23, 2024

Do Not Vote For This

My personal exhortation to American voters, do not vote for this:


UPDATE: Well, that got removed.  Not surprised.

September 22, 2024

September 20, 2024

Friday Musical Interlude - two for One

A double dose of faith today. Amazing Grace on bagpipes, and How Great Thou Art, the Elvis version.


September 19, 2024

Sky News Australia, based

Sky News Australia is based; they'll run stories like this.  Great work.

September 18, 2024

Is Chris Cuomo waking up?

I'm sure this is not an end to Chris Cuomo's opposition to Trump, but it is an end to his TDS and it might be a come to Jesus moment of self reflection for him.

Democrats blame the victim

According to Democrats, it's Trump's fault people are shooting at him. They are blaming the victim because they cannot face the fact that they themselves have a long history of inciting or enacting violence, going all the way back to the time of president Lincoln.

September 17, 2024

Just spit-balling here...

Just a quick thought; if jobs are being replaced by automation and AI, and if the left is pushing for Universal Basic Income, and also pushing for the draft, then...

Is it crazy to think that all jobs are going to disappear and be replaced with some form of compulsory government service (including a draft) in exchange for the Universal Basic Income? Does all of civilization end up being in one army/navy/air force or another?  And does the military-industrial complex seek out wars for both profit and the leftist ideal of population control?

I'm just spit-balling.  It's a bit of conspiracy theory but as a puzzle, the pieces do kind of fit together.

September 16, 2024

Flaws of RCP poll aggregation

Currently the RCP average of polls shows Harris +0.1 in Pennsylvania, based on a straight average of 6 of the most recent polls. I'm not focusing on Pennsylvania here, merely using the RCP data for the state to point out some observations. This RCP average of polls is deeply flawed on so many levels. Let me explain.

It is indeed true that if you take these 6 polls, and average the response rate for Harris and for Trump, as a straight average,  Harris gets a rating of 47.83% and Trump gets an average of 47.67%. But take a closer look and some interesting things begin to appear.

Notice firstly, that there are polls from as far back as August 18/19 being averaged against polls as recent as September 3rd through 6th. Those are not like periods. I won't quibble this point too much, but recent polls are more likely to be accurate than older polls. But the debate wasn't until September 10th, so these may be more alike in voter temperament than pre debate vs post debate polls. Additionally in RCP's defense, maybe there are not enough polls that are recent enough to do much more. Both fair points, but this is actually the least of my concerns.

There are 3 polls that are tied, 2 in which Trump leads Harris, and only one where Harris leads Trump. 5 polls with Trump tied or ahead, only one with Harris ahead, and yet she leads the RCP aggregate. Not just odd, Very Odd. The poll that has Harris ahead has her way ahead. Its skew, is overpowering 5 other polls. That means the outlier poll is dominating the RCP average. That's not good math.

Let me take that last point one step further, the Bloomberg poll surveyed Registered Voters, not Likely Voters. It is not as indicative of actual turnout as all the other polls.  So not only is the outlier over emphasized due to it's skewness, it also is not as good a poll as the likely voter polls.

In calculating an average of polls I would exclude the Bloomberg poll because of the people polled. That's without even getting into the crosstabs of the polls to see if Democrats were oversampled. Maybe they were and maybe they weren't, but remember Michael Bloomberg ran for president, as a Democrat.  Again, not suggesting there is a bias in the sample selection, because there is enough reason to exclude it from the poll without even considering that. To be fair, Insider Advantage and Trafalgar Group tend to skew Republican and those are the two polls that have Trump ahead. I would not exclude them however, because I would not exclude CNN or The Hill polls just because they tend to skew Democrat.

The CNN poll has an absurd 4.7% margin of error though.  The rest of the polls margin of error are below 3.5%, which is to me a reasonable number. For that reason I would exclude CNN.

All else being equal, and it's really not, that would leave me with 4 polls. And if everything were equally done, I would take a weighted average of the polls rather than a straight average. The Insider Advantage poll of 800 should count slightly less than the CBS poll of 1085. Weighting the percentages according to poll size makes a bit more sense.  

Doing so, I get the following output, showing Trump +0.8% In Pennsylvania:


Leftists leaving the left

 A California former DNC delegate, is supporting Trump.

Pierre Poilievre's brilliance shines in this one

Pierre Poilievre quotes Trudeau's fellow leftists trashing his insane latest budget.

Flip-flopper extraordinaire

Is it excusable because it comes from a place of ignorance? Nope, she's trying to be everything to everybody (in the room at the time).

Eating the cats explained

I guess we need to address this 'controversy':

Trump assassination attempt #2

 Just horrible.


Accountant Explains: Kamala's Most RADICAL Financial Policies

For those who vote based on TDS rather than common sense, please watch this accountant take apart some of Kamala Harris' radical policy proposals. 

September 15, 2024

Meanwhile in Canada

Pierre Poilievre helps Canadians see the truth about how Trudeau keeps promising the same thing, all while decimating Canada.

Federally funded CBC accidentally tells the truth about Trudeau's Canada

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...

Want actually policies? Look to Trump

Trump keeps making policy proposals. Kamala Harris either copies Trump's, or copies Biden's . For her it doesn't matter because she flip flops so much putting something in writing isn't worth the effort.

Sunday verse

 


September 13, 2024

Another one bites the dust

Fani Willis' faux case against Trump keeps nosediving into the mud. More of the charges have been tossed out.

September 12, 2024

Hugh Hewitt on the horrible debate performance by Harris, and ABC

I thought the debate was a tie.  But after watching Hugh Hewitt's take, maybe Trump did win based on the horrible performance by ABC and the dodgeball answers from Harris. He might be right.

So you're telling me they ARE eating pets?

Trump was fact-checked incorrectly, AGAIN.

What's the deal with the Ohio ducks?

Um, here:


I honestly don't think anyone won that debate. Trump lost in the sense that he missed a number of knockout punch opportunities.  Harris came across as snotty. Post debate insta-polls showed no real shift.  The media is claiming Harris won. I guess by not being as bad as Let's Go Brandon, she looks better by comparison. But I really saw nothing worthwhile in that debate from either candidate that would cause a voter shift.

Oh you'll see one, the fabricated polls will show another fictitious Kamala bounce. But it's designed to lead opinion not reflect it.  

There will be more bumps in the road to come before November.

September 10, 2024

Dems are terrified of illegals NOT being allowed to vote

Wow. They are willing to shut down the government to get illegals to vote.

Effective communication in Canada

Pierre Poilievre's marketing of the effects of Justin Trudeau and his coalition enabler Jagmeet Singh on Canada really makes an impact on the public perception of just how bad it has been. Here's the latest before and after example.

September 9, 2024

Well, Elon Musk has been doing his part.

An Elon Musk PAC has been exposing Harris:

Lawfare vs. Walz?

What's good for the goose, is good for the gander.  It's about time the GOP engaged in lawfare against Democrats. It's a terrible practice but Democrats won't consider stopping until it's turned back on them.

September 8, 2024

September 7, 2024

More proof of despicable lawfare

I hope Americans would rather vote for a 'criminal' than vote for a criminal system, run by corrupt people.  The founding fathers at one point were considered criminals by the British.  In his 1775 Proclamation of Rebellion, King George III declared that those involved in the rebellion were traitors, making it clear that the British government considered the leaders of the American Revolution as criminals. 

Criminality is less important than motive. Trump is motivated to fix a massively corrupt American government. The Democrats, the beaurocracy, the elite rich are today's King George III. They are using lawfare to suppress dissent, and Trump is the chief dissenter.

September 6, 2024

Why Kamala's price controls won't work

It's basic economics. This is just one example of why she should not be anywhere near the Whitehouse.

September 5, 2024

Sadly, Trudeau isn't gone just yet

Yesterday the far left New Democrat Party's (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh ripped up his deal with Justin Trudeau's far left Liberal party.  The NDP formed a coalition with Trudeau to make his minority government a majority due to the alliance, making for a guaranteed 5 year election cycle. That ended yesterday, as Singh finally realized that Trudeau was slow walking much of the NDPs demands, and 'siding with the corporate interests instead of workers'.

Sadly, that doesn't end Trudeau's unholy reign on Canadian government. Parliament is not in session, and in order to force an early election in a minority government, a motion of non-confidence must be voted on in parliament. Parliament doesn't reconvene until mid September (after a ridiculous 2 month summer recess.  Parliament sits for about 145 day per year as if it was grade school. Yeah).

Even more sadly, the problem doesn't end there. Just because the NDP has no deal with the Liberal party, doesn't mean they will immediately support a non-confidence motion. In fact Singh has already stated that he will support or refuse to support Liberal legislation on a case by case basis. 

Jagmeet Singh is trying to have his cake and eat it too. As Justin Trudeau's popular approval has tanked over the last two years, people had called on Singh to tear up the deal propping up the Liberals, but he refused to do so - even after several Liberal members of parliament had questioned Trudeau's continued party leadership. The pressure has only intensified on Singh to force an election. He finally relented.

It was certainly a surprise to many, but it was an obvious move. Canada's economy is currently in far worse shape than America's. Singh refusing to let Canadians get into life rafts and instead forcing the country to cling to the sinking ship Trudeau, was not a tenable position.  Even former NDP leaders have questioned his motivation. Some have even speculated that the reason for his hesitancy has been that as of February 2025, he has enough tenure to qualify for a ridiculously rich government pension.

That aside, Singh is clearly trying to thread the needle - being seen not as a Trudeau lackey and sticking up for voters, but also keeping an eye on the polls.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative party has a massive poll lead and it has been sticking for quite some time. If an election were held today it would result in a Conservative landslide. Trudeau would end up with the Liberals in third place, and Singh's NDP would end up in fourth.  Yes, it's that good for us and that bad for them. Singh is now in a position to see if his poll numbers rise as a result of his phony sudden indignation. He can try to wait for the most opportune time relative to polling, to join or create a non-confidence motion to topple the Trudeau Liberals. He doesn't need to rush.  And with that pension issue out there, he certainly has incentive to not rush before February.

That does become a double-edged sword.  If he's seen to vote for an election in any way that puts him past his February-eligible rich government pension, people we see him as a self-serving scumbag. Rightly so. But maybe he is one and he doesn't care about popular opinion.   There were times in the past had he helped force an election, the far left NDP would have fared much better than they are doing right now.

It could also be the case that this is all window dressing.  He may want people to believe he's declared independence from the coalition government but will still ride it out until October 2025, when an election must be called regardless. The result for Canadians, is that for some period that remains to be determined, we are stuck with Justin Trudeau. Happily the maximum amount possible is now only 13 months.

CNN's brilliant move

Are they patting themselves on the back?  They're now prepared for a Trump run and/or presidency, having rehired George Costanza Brian Stelter. I guess antagonism is their aim?


Here's the issue, his ratings, like that of everyone else at CNN, were abysmal. By shedding the partisan nature of their 'news coverage' they were looking to recover from their downward spiral. The problem has been that despite firing some of their more obvious political hack staff, they only ever went half-measure into it.  There was pushback from the partisan hack staff, and they never really got very far. 

With Stelter's reappearance, it would seem that the partisan hack side of the company is emerging victorious. That spells more failure for CNN. Their fate most likely, is sealed. 

I told you Democrats would go there: "It's Russia!"

Democrats: "Trump's winning? It must be Russia!"

September 4, 2024

Fani Willis bombshell!

She showed up with Nathan Wade. C.o.r.r.u.p.t. Remember Fani Willis said on the stand, her relationship with Nathan Wade had ended.  And here she is showing up to her daughter's arrest with the same man.

The PsyOps begin

If Trump wins, it's because of Russia.  Same fake story all over again. They are planting the seeds now; maybe to disallow millions of Trump votes? Or for another impeachment attempt? These people are vile.  I'm no fan of Russia, they are evil too, but this is some serious gaslighting folks. To think, Obama almost managed to get Merrick Garland on the Supreme Court. And Christopher Wray to his right? He has to be gone on Day One of the next Trump administration.

Reblicans smartening up (finally)

Republicans using smart power, or rather, their limited power, smartly. They're tying non-citizen voting to a continuing resolution bill.  Smart. 

Tim Walz's family back in Nebraska wants you to know something


Not a "deep fake", unless you are referring to Tim Walz himself.

 

Why you should not panic about the polls

Rush Limbaugh used to advise his listeners (me among them), don't live and die by the polls. Sound advice in an era where most polling is designed to influence opinion rather than reflect it. If you watch the polls (and I do), you cannot blindly follow a single poll, or even a group of polls 'aggregated' without a grain handful of salt at the ready. Polls are often designed to discourage or encourage voters of a particular stripe to not vote, or vote respectively.

They often do not inform, but rather misinform. So either ignore them, or else take care in how you approach them. Steven Crowder points out that a dose of reality should be taken along with any polling you ingest:

One for Kamala

Since she doesn't seem to understand or even know basic economics, here's a belated explanation of why price controls are a bad thing. Yes it's a bit late relative to her suggestion about implementing price controls, since her positions seem to change minute to minute, but it's still worth mentioning since I'm sure she'll drop it and come back to it several times before the election.

Please pay attention Kamala, this is relatively simple.


Every time I hear Milton Friedman speak, even rewatching stuff, it makes me wish he was around today.

Newt Gingrich on the Harris campaign

Newt Gingrich talks about the Kamala Harris campaign, and the candidate herself.

September 3, 2024

Bias much?

JUST. AWFUL.

Own it Kamala.

This is on you.

This is obscene. This is offensive.

This also speaks to the phoniness of Kamala Harris. I call her Kamala Chameleon for a reason. And this is why you cannot trust her on her policy positions.  When she bothers to speak to them, it changes even faster than the changes in the video below, sometimes even within the same interview...

State of the race

Here's my latest take on the race, based on polls of likely voters within the past 14 days, with at least a 500 sample size. The only state with no valid polls based on my criteria, is Georgia.


Interestingly, outside of one poll in North Carolina, there are only two pollsters with polling that qualifies, and both tend to favor Republicans in their methodology.  Is it possible there's a bias in my selection? Yes, seeing as how the included polls are clearly right-leaning.  But the problem with that conclusion is that they are the most recent polls, they do have a reasonable sample size, and they are polling likely voters, which is more informative than registered voters or just all adults.

Without getting into the crosstabs of voters and whether the sample compositions are indicative of the electorate, it's a better quick and dirty than how RealClearPolitics just does a recency and non-duplicate pollster check. I trust my averages more than that of RCP. 

Further, check out The Peoples' Pundit on Benny Johnson, who explains some more details on why Trump is very likely winning right now.

Taxing Unrealized Gains is a Disaster

Here's an explanation of why taxing unrealized gains is a super bad idea.  In addition, inheritance taxes are a terrible idea as well (more on that in the future).  

Keep this video in mind when you go vote and you should be able to avoid the mistake of voting for Kamala Harris and Democrats in general.

September 2, 2024

Happy Labor Day

It's the unofficial end of summer, and I'm off to a slow blog start this month.  This after my busiest year of posting (so far) since 2011.  The next few weeks are likely to be a bit slower as I settle into a new role in my day job.  I'm hoping to have a decent reaction to the maybe happening Trump / Harris debate, but it will overall probably be a bit slower month for me.  By October, I'm hoping to be back in my regular swing of things.

In the meantime, Happy Labor Day. I hope everyone has a wonderful fall season, culminating in a big win in November.

September 1, 2024

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