RFK Jr sworn in, and...

Make America Healthy Again is a go:

RFK Jr. talks about Amazon

It's about what you would think; truth.

At least RFK Jr. is right about Anthony Fauci

I am not an RFK Jr. fan.  He's a leftist masquerading as a centrist populist and he's out to torpedo president Trump's re-election chances, even if he's not succeeding.  All that said, here he's right concerning Anthony Fauci.

RFK Jr. still trying to steal Trump voters

In light of Roe v. Wade being overturned by the Supreme Court, isn't RFK's pronouncement during this interview, a moot point?  The ruling has basically returned the issue to a state level matter, which is why Trump's new position is exactly right - it's a state matter now.

Beyond that, I still contend he's trying to siphon votes away from Donald Trump, and not be a serious contender.  This position certain walks into pro-Trump territory and away from left leaning voters, and reinforces my belief of the RFK Jr. ultimate goal.

I'm not saying it will work well, but it only needs to work enough, in the right states to make a difference, and that should worry us.

Is RFK Jr. trying to torpedo Trump?

RFK Jr. may be trying to thread the needle of attracting voters from both parties, but he may also be trying to torpedo president Trump's 2024 chances.  True, he has selected a VP nominee who is a leftist. His policies, while sounding populist, are a cover for very liberal details.  That's a discussion for another day, I'm going to completely set that all aside for now and focus on what is really happening inside the RFK Jr. campaign. What he is doing in terms of political maneuvering behind the scenes is far more telling that his window dressing.

The real thrust of his efforts seem to be in states that could torpedo president Trump's chances. I clipped this from RFK Jr's campaign website, the dark purple states are those in which the petitioning to be on the ballot is complete:

One reliably Democrat state (Hawaii), three toss-up states (Michigan, Nevada and possibly a toss-up, New Hampshire), and meanwhile four reliably conservative states (Iowa, Nebraska, Utah, and Idaho). Who does that hurt more?  Likely it will not affect Trump's win or loss an any of the states classified as reliable either way. But in the toss up states, it could swing protest votes away from Trump just enough to land those states for Let's Go Brandon.

If RFK Jr. ends up on the ballot in all 50 states, there are more Republican leaning states than Democrat leaning states, that means in terms of siphon votes away, in the aggregate, he's likely to siphon more votes from Trump than from Let's Go Brandon.  It won't be enough in any of those individual states to steal away electoral votes from either candidate. BUT, it could be enough to swing what is increasingly looking like a popular vote win for Trump into an electoral win combined with an electoral vote loss. You know what that means right? A continued narrative of an illegitimate Trump presidency, and a continued narrative that it's time to scrap the electoral college.

It's also important to look at his events. There's a lot to digest, there are events where RFK Jr. is attending and events where he isn't.  There are events open to the press and events closed to the press. There are national events and community events in specific states. It's a lot. But the one item not closed to the press in the near term is in Nashville. Not by coincidence, a conservative state.

Sadly, a lot of celebrities who we assumed have moved into the Republican camp are going to be there entertaining on behalf of RFK Jr.:

Enjoy what’s bound to be one of the most memorable nights of your year at the iconic Ryman Auditorium in Nashville, TN entertained by comedy greats, musical shooting stars, and our future president and vice president! 

Delight in the comedic genius of laughter legends Rob Schneider, Dave Landau, Jim Breuer, Katherine Blanford, Jeff Dye, Mike Binder, a special appearance by Russell Brand plus other surprise guests!

Kick back and revel in the country flair of musical performances by Kayley Bishop, John Carter Cash, and Ana Cristina Cash.

Top off the good vibes with an epic pause for the cause; a special joint appearance by our candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr and VP candidate, Nicole Shanahan! 

Oof. It makes it seem more and more like they just want to siphon enough votes from Trump, whom they know is going to win, to make the claim that Let's Go Brandon is somehow more legitimate. That's a lot of star power for an event in Nashville, where Trump has the electoral college wrapped up.

I don't like RFK Jr's policies but I don't think he's stupid. His smart play if he really wanted to win, would be to concentrate on states where he could muster enough electoral college wins to actually create a fairly even three way split and then take it from there.  That's not what he's doing.  This all 50 states approach is not a winning strategy.

Finally take a look at his petitions. He has one demanding secret service protection - no problem there it's a reasonable ask. Same for having the FBI release documents on the JFK assassination.  No problem there, it's a personal interest item for him and his family. He has one demanding the release of Julian Assange - meh, not a big deal either. But he has one demanding that Let's Go Brandon secure the border.  Who is that petition aimed at?  Conservatives.  Thankfully, it has relatively few signatures, because I think conservatives on that issue are likely locked in for Trump already.  Why wouldn't they be?

But combine that with the Assange petition and the one demanding a pardon for Edward Snowden and it seems like perhaps he's targeting mainly conservative and libertarian leaning voters. Add in a touch of Christian voters.  Those are not in Let's Go Brandon's target demographics.

This could be a torpedo job, not meant to stop Trump from winning, but to add ammunition to stop him from governing.

RFK Jr. will get next to no votes now

WAS THIS DELIBERATE?  RFK Jr. announced his VP running mate, Nicole Shanahan, and she is a raging leftist establishment type.  He's shot any chance of a successful presidential campaign in the foot.  I'm not sure what the strategy was here; RFK Jr. may feel he's garnered as many conservative supporters as he could and is now making a play to pull voters from Let's Go Brandon's base. He certainly stands to lose some of his independent supporters as a result of a radical leftist pick.  And it's hard to see how the left will gravitate to RFK Jr. when they seem to think a defense of democracy is the most pressing issue facing America in 2024.  They'll have to vote for Let's Go Brandon out of fear (aka TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome). But maybe, this was a deliberate self-sabotage.

Here's how Politico described her:

Nicole Shanahan, the 38-year-old lawyer and investor who will now be Kennedy’s running mate, provides a helpful injection of cash to the campaign, having donated more than $4.5 million to his bid thus far.

Shanahan is a longtime staple of the Silicon Valley scene as an early AI executive, an ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin and, according to the Wall Street Journal, an alleged one-time paramour of Elon Musk.

But potentially more significant than the money she delivers is the way her politics squares with Kennedy’s existing supporters, and what it means for U.S. party alignment.

Looking at Shanahan’s track record, she at first seems the paragon of a loyal Democrat: She contributed to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg in 2020, and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), her local representative.

She was a major donor to Measure J, an anti-incarceration California ballot initiative, and her Bia-Echo Foundation names “the world’s greatest challenges” as “Reproductive Longevity & Equality, Criminal Justice Reform and a Healthy and Livable Planet” — which, whatever it actually does, manages to invoke a lot of progressive-sounding buzzwords.

That might make her selection jarring, considering RFK Jr.’s campaign has thus far appealed to a more right-leaning crowd.

It's clear where RFK Jr. is looking to expand his voter appeal; leftward.  I don't think it really helps him win anything.  But it could torpedo his support and maybe that was the point.  It's long been argued that he will pull more support from Let's Go Brandon than he will from Trump, maybe this was a way to end his own campaign so that anti-Trump support drifts back to Let's Go Brandon out of that aforementioned fear of Trump.

As of Monday, per RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump held a popular-vote lead of 1.7% in a hypothetical one-on-one rematch.

Trump’s advantage, however, rose to 2.3% in the current five-way race, which includes Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independents Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

So if he is trying torpedo himself it would be a good strategy.  But it honestly draws potential support from the wrong side if that is the case.  The only way it works as that plan is if it doesn't help him in the polls and he withdraws from the race. It seems likely he will bleed almost as much support as he gains from this move, if not more.

Worse still, she's such a big tech investor type, it almost undercuts his big pharma skepticism that has garnered a lot of support from the types who hate Let's Go Brandon but cannot pull the lever for Trump. It's an odd enough move I could see him bleeding support from both sides. The impact will shake out over the next month.

Here's a good longer form take on it:

RFK Jr's facts on Israel are good, but...

I'm no fan of Robert F Kennedy Jr..  He often says things that conservatives agree with but he's not a conservative. He's right on many things, but not enough of them to garner my support. He's far left for example on climate activism. In fact, I would not put it past Democrats to have positioned him as a Manchurian candidate for independents, libertarians and conservatives so as to stop them from voting for Trump.  Call me a skeptic.  Granted I was skeptical of Trump initially too, but while he is an imperfect candidate he did well and will do well again when he wins again. 

Back to RFK Jr. As I said, he gets some things right, and I'm not afraid to share it when he does.  His latest proclamation on Israel is spot on:

“Any other nation that was adjacent to a neighboring nation that was bombing it with rockets, sending commandos over to murder its citizens, pledging itself to murder every person in that nation and annihilate it, would go and level it with aerial bombardment,” Kennedy said.

“But Israel is a moral nation. So it didn’t do that. Instead, it built an iron dome to protect itself so it would not have to go into Gaza.”

He said Hamas gave Israeli leaders no choice after fighters stormed into Israel on October 7, killing 1,200 people and capturing 253 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

He goes further, as Breitbart points out: 

Rather than pressuring Israel, Kennedy said, the U.S. should be pressuring states that currently support Hamas.

He's exactly right.  If Mexico or Canada was doing that to the United States, how would you expect America to react?  The response would be swift and total. So don't be hypocritical 

Here's the interesting thing about his position on Israel. Politically this is a problem for Let's Go Brandon; as he bleeds support from far left Gaza/Hamas supporters (or sympathizers) he's been left with his weak Israeli support to bolster his support. But if RFK Jr. is going to siphon off support, this would come from Let's Go Brandon supporters more so than Trump supporters.  Trump supporters who are pro-Israel already know what he has done for the country; recognizing Jerusalem as the capital, the Abraham Accords are two big items.  They aren't about to shift to RFK Jr. based on his truthful pronouncements about Hamas.

RFK Jr. is not a populist

From the beginning I didn't understand why conservatives and libertarians were giving RFK Jr. a pass. I mean fundamentally when he was running a primary against Let's Go Brandon, I understood why: it was to divide Democrats and negatively impact their votes. But suddenly RFK Jr decided to run as an independent and I wondered, why didn't conservative pundits see this coming?  All the while they were giving runway to RFK Jr to steal away votes not from Let's Go Brandon but rather from Donald Trump.  

Even if he were a serious contender for president, this is concerning enough to disqualify him from consideration:

He's a leftist, period.  If that doesn't show you it, you are willfully blind.

The Democrat playbook for 2024 is to make president Trump fight a multi-front war.  They know they cannot beat him in a straight up political battle. So they have decided to make president Trump fight in court for a bunch of spurious charges and actions.  One court case wasn't enough, either.  They have started multiple court cases because they need president Trump's attention divided.

Whether RFK Jr. is in on the game plan or not, doesn't matter at this point.  In addition to the multi-front war Donald Trump has to fight in court, he now has to also worry about RFK Jr. siphoning off populist voters in addition to Let's Go Brandon's giant cheat-machine manufacturing voters to help him win.  Despite the positive polling news, this is still an uphill battle for president Trump's re-election in 2024. 

More thoughts on Trump vs. Brandon vs. RFK Jr.

When RFK Jr. announced an independent run for president, I wondered if it would hurt or help president Trump's chances in 2024. At the time I thought it was too early to tell.  I still feel that way now but I think there are some preliminary impressions to be gleaned.  Red Eagle Politics takes a stab at breaking down some of it.  I also have some thoughts about how Democrats will use this in 2024, which I will discuss below.

Coming out of the 2024 election, there are two likely scenarios at this point assuming the nominees end up as expected as of today; (1) Trump is elected or (2) Let's Go Brandon is re-elected. The latter scenario is only likely in the event that RFK Jr ends up taking more votes from Trump than Brandon. 

In the former scenario, Trump winning, the chances are high that no candidate will reach the 50 percent voter mark. Democrats will argue that since that is the case, Trump has no mandate to do anything.  Even without a divided but victorious GOP  in the house and/or senate the president will face yet more legal obstacles to any policy item.  The GOP and president Trump must be prepared for that fight. The media will carry the 'no mandate' water for Democrats as far as they can. 

If Brandon ekes out a win, the reverse will be true.  The argument will be he needs to bring disaffected Democrats who voted for RFK Jr. back into the fold be being conciliatory with them and then he will have a true mandate.  The media will carry the water again, claiming he is doing just that, as he continues to placate the far left and obfuscate any chance for real criminal justice for his crime family (or any other Democrat), while maliciously and irresponsibly prosecuting anyone who disagrees with them or dares question them. In other words, establishment BAU (business as usual).

Getting back to the election impact, I am not beyond believing Democrats have set up RFK Jr. as a pseudo Manchurian candidate to suck independent votes away from Trump, while he still truly is a dyed in the wool leftist.  He certainly is a rabid environmentalist and the common ground with libertarians centers predominantly around anti-vaccine mandates.  It's a convenient situation for Democrats if he can drain just enough Trump support.  After all, he did drop his Democratic primary challenge against Let's Go Brandon to run as an independent.  That in itself raises a red flag. It can be argued that he may achieve more success this way, but is sure helps Let's Go Brandon by him doing so.  Food for thought.

RFK Jr. independent run for president: good for Trump?

Robert F Kennedy Jr. has announced an independent run for president in 2024.  The expectation is that it will hurt Let's Go Brandon and help president Trump's election bid.  But I can see circumstances where he pulls voters from both parties.  He has gotten a warm reception from many bloggers and media types on the right, because he is willing to point out Let's Go Brandon's horrible record. Will that warm reception continue to the point it hurts president Trump? It may.

While third party candidates typically do not have a major impact on elections, the most notable, relatively recent election where it mattered was Ross Perot's independent run in 1992.  He pulled only 8% of the popular vote (a fairly high watermark), did not win any states but clearly had an impact on the election. He espoused a number of conservative policies (as well as liberal policies). It's clear he took votes away from the Republican candidate, George Bush but likely also from Bill Clinton. That he did not do better was likely a result of his self-inflicted campaign chaos.

The argument that he may hurt president Trump in a general election stems from the fact that there are many issues where he is on the same side as president Trump.  People are looking for common sense and he may have many liberal views, but he definitely would have been the most, if not only,  common sense Democrat in the primary race.  Those who want common sense without the chaos and/or bombastic style of president Trump could easily turn to RFK Jr. instead.  There are a lot of Republican voters who still get their news from mainstream media and have been spoon fed the notion that president Trump was abysmal as a candidate and as president.  Conversely the never-Trump 'crowd' would not need to throw in with Let's Go Brandon.

I think it's too early to tell if RFK Jr. hurts Trump or the other guy more, but it's something to watch.

The Joe Rogan, RFK Jr, Hotez Twitter feud explained

Awaken with JP, provides a comedic, but accurate chronology of a Twitter feud about COVID  va.cc.in.es that dragged in others like Elon Musk.

How does RFK Jr. impact Let's Go Brandon?

RFK Jr. is going to run against Let's Go Brandon as a Democrat. As a Democrat! When a sitting president gets primaried, it's not a good sign. Is it enough to mortally wound him for a general election against president Trump? Hopefully, but it's too early to tell.