Is RFK Jr. trying to torpedo Trump?

RFK Jr. may be trying to thread the needle of attracting voters from both parties, but he may also be trying to torpedo president Trump's 2024 chances.  True, he has selected a VP nominee who is a leftist. His policies, while sounding populist, are a cover for very liberal details.  That's a discussion for another day, I'm going to completely set that all aside for now and focus on what is really happening inside the RFK Jr. campaign. What he is doing in terms of political maneuvering behind the scenes is far more telling that his window dressing.

The real thrust of his efforts seem to be in states that could torpedo president Trump's chances. I clipped this from RFK Jr's campaign website, the dark purple states are those in which the petitioning to be on the ballot is complete:

One reliably Democrat state (Hawaii), three toss-up states (Michigan, Nevada and possibly a toss-up, New Hampshire), and meanwhile four reliably conservative states (Iowa, Nebraska, Utah, and Idaho). Who does that hurt more?  Likely it will not affect Trump's win or loss an any of the states classified as reliable either way. But in the toss up states, it could swing protest votes away from Trump just enough to land those states for Let's Go Brandon.

If RFK Jr. ends up on the ballot in all 50 states, there are more Republican leaning states than Democrat leaning states, that means in terms of siphon votes away, in the aggregate, he's likely to siphon more votes from Trump than from Let's Go Brandon.  It won't be enough in any of those individual states to steal away electoral votes from either candidate. BUT, it could be enough to swing what is increasingly looking like a popular vote win for Trump into an electoral win combined with an electoral vote loss. You know what that means right? A continued narrative of an illegitimate Trump presidency, and a continued narrative that it's time to scrap the electoral college.

It's also important to look at his events. There's a lot to digest, there are events where RFK Jr. is attending and events where he isn't.  There are events open to the press and events closed to the press. There are national events and community events in specific states. It's a lot. But the one item not closed to the press in the near term is in Nashville. Not by coincidence, a conservative state.

Sadly, a lot of celebrities who we assumed have moved into the Republican camp are going to be there entertaining on behalf of RFK Jr.:

Enjoy what’s bound to be one of the most memorable nights of your year at the iconic Ryman Auditorium in Nashville, TN entertained by comedy greats, musical shooting stars, and our future president and vice president! 

Delight in the comedic genius of laughter legends Rob Schneider, Dave Landau, Jim Breuer, Katherine Blanford, Jeff Dye, Mike Binder, a special appearance by Russell Brand plus other surprise guests!

Kick back and revel in the country flair of musical performances by Kayley Bishop, John Carter Cash, and Ana Cristina Cash.

Top off the good vibes with an epic pause for the cause; a special joint appearance by our candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr and VP candidate, Nicole Shanahan! 

Oof. It makes it seem more and more like they just want to siphon enough votes from Trump, whom they know is going to win, to make the claim that Let's Go Brandon is somehow more legitimate. That's a lot of star power for an event in Nashville, where Trump has the electoral college wrapped up.

I don't like RFK Jr's policies but I don't think he's stupid. His smart play if he really wanted to win, would be to concentrate on states where he could muster enough electoral college wins to actually create a fairly even three way split and then take it from there.  That's not what he's doing.  This all 50 states approach is not a winning strategy.

Finally take a look at his petitions. He has one demanding secret service protection - no problem there it's a reasonable ask. Same for having the FBI release documents on the JFK assassination.  No problem there, it's a personal interest item for him and his family. He has one demanding the release of Julian Assange - meh, not a big deal either. But he has one demanding that Let's Go Brandon secure the border.  Who is that petition aimed at?  Conservatives.  Thankfully, it has relatively few signatures, because I think conservatives on that issue are likely locked in for Trump already.  Why wouldn't they be?

But combine that with the Assange petition and the one demanding a pardon for Edward Snowden and it seems like perhaps he's targeting mainly conservative and libertarian leaning voters. Add in a touch of Christian voters.  Those are not in Let's Go Brandon's target demographics.

This could be a torpedo job, not meant to stop Trump from winning, but to add ammunition to stop him from governing.