December 31, 2022
December 30, 2022
My Top 10 posts of 2022
These are in reverse chronological order, not order of importance.
Top 10:
Joe Manchin is still a Democrat team player
Honorable Mentions (or just older posts that also were pretty good):
December 29, 2022
Hypocrisy not just on China
Let's Go Brandon criticized president Trump for racism when he blocked travel from China. Now he's doing the exact same thing. The hypocrisy doesn't end there. While he's blocking travel from China, it seems that anything that can be done to enhance illegal immigration from Mexico and Central America is good with Democrats. I dunno, allowing in some unabated while blocking others outright seems selective and racist to me.
December 27, 2022
The silent majority on electric vehicles
Bill Whittle, Scott Ott and Stephen Green discuss the notion that silent majority within the automotive industry don't believe the industry should go all in on electric vehicles.
December 25, 2022
December 24, 2022
December 23, 2022
Trump criminal charges explainer
A less informed but conservative-leaning friend of mine asked me about the recent latest Trump criminal charges. This post is an explainer for him (and others like him).
December 22, 2022
Tim Pool on Elon Musk's Twitter dying warning
Twitter could be on death's door. Tim Pool discusses the situation that Elon Musk has been talking about. Turns out that Twitter had been receiving government all along. I don't think Twitter will fail, despite the current scenario because of Musk's probably plan for the platform all along, which I believe was Musk's plan all along.
Maybe it's not a certainty!
Per this tweet, maybe the latest, dreadfully awful Democrat spending bill is not only not a certainty, it may be dead in the water.
No more votes in the Senate tonight. Omnibus in trouble. Title 42 amendment causing big problems.
— Trish Turner (@caphilltrish) December 22, 2022
There is hope.
Latest Democrat spending bill is disgusting
Democrats have pushed forward yet another $1.7 trillion spending bill. In times of fighting inflation it's the worst idea ever. In times of growing interest rates and government debt payments at all time highs and bound to go higher, this is the worst idea ever. A 4000+ page bill with no time to review let alone read, before voting on it is the worst idea ever. That's three strikes on this bill, but Democrats will be awarded a home run anyway. Disgusting. Inane. Insane.
The Twitter files (so far), a summary
If you haven't been following the Twitter files saga, Elon Musk has started sharing behind the scenes information about the nefarious goings-on that had been happening at Twitter prior to him buying out the company. Here are some summary videos about the first 8 Twitter file releases to date.
Part 1:
Part 2:
Part 3:
Part 4:
Part 5:
Part 6:
Part 7:
Part 8:
If you watched all that, you are roughly up to date.
December 20, 2022
An interesting Russell Brand conversation with Tim Robbins
Kudos to Tim Robbins for being reasonable about COVID. Here he explains to Russell Brand, his recent apologies and attempt at rapprochement with those with whom he disagreed.
December 19, 2022
Woke social credit system warning from Jordan Peterson
Jordan Peterson is spot on in this interview.
This is happening at the border
This is merely a tiny fraction of the problem:
America cannot be a nation if there are no borders. It will collapse, and maybe that's exactly why the left want open borders.
December 18, 2022
December 17, 2022
CNN reporter suspended from Twitter
For doxing Elon Musk, several reporters have been suspended. And yet the claim there was no reason for the suspension.
Yes, there was an explanation as to why. But that doesn't stop CNN from lying about it.
December 16, 2022
Pete Buttigieg vacations during rail strike
This guy is not a serious candidate for president. This sums up all you need to know about him.
December 14, 2022
Tim Pool on Republican ballot harvesting
Tim Pool discusses Kari Lake's lawsuit in the Arizona election regarding Katie Hobbs' questionable win in the Arizona governor race. The court is willing to look at the case, which is good news. But Tim makes the larger point that Republicans should be ballot harvesting low information voters the same way Democrats have successfully done. It's a strong point.
Pool also makes a great point about the need for establishing confidence in the election system.
December 13, 2022
Raquel Dancho speak for herself
...and for a lot of Canadians too, after she was kicked out of parliament for telling the truth:
If you still think Canada is this great place to live, you haven't been paying attention.
December 12, 2022
Sinema is good news, but not the solution
Democrats like Senator Krysten Sinema who leave the Democratic party to sit as an independent are a sign of the problem, and a reaction to the problem but they are not necessarily part of the solution. The problem, is that the Democratic party has over decades and decades continued to tilt so far to the left that they are in many if not most ways, socialists. They want to to overhaul the fundamental principles of America and in large part they have succeeded. That's the main problem, the real problem. It was always the direction but it has accelerated dramatically since 2008. Unravelling their mess is the challenge of our lifetimes.
Thankfully their ship has listed so far to the left it now has all the makings of a capsizing in progress. That's great. But it's also not. There are a couple of problems with the death spiral of the socialist Democratic party when you notice the likes of Sinema abandoning ship. It's an indicator that there's a problem for sure. But firstly, it's just one person. Jeff Van Drew switched parties in 2019/2020 and now Sinema has done so in 2022, oh and Tulsi Gabbard also left the party this year (but she also bowed out of politics as a candidate at least). That's not exactly a wave of departures. It's a trickle, much like the expected but not materialized Red Wave of the 2022 midterms. A departure here and a departure there are clearly good signs, and they should be applauded for awakening from their 'woke' stupor. But the Blue ship socialism continues to ride the seas largely intact and unchanged.
Secondly, these individual moves may signal a larger, longer term trend but they could also be for individual gain - Van Drew may have seen the signs on the wall in his particular district. Gabbard may have been sick of politics or seen the opportunity for more money in the private sector. Sinema may have been sick of harassment from within her own party for her reluctance to groupthink the nation's way into insane deficit spending in light of the inflation monster that is still raging. I'm not disparaging the motives of any of these individuals, simply questioning if it is indeed a sign of a real rupture in the party or just people being personally practical. We don't know with certainty. Our confirmation bias leads us to believe they have seen the light. We want that to be true but we don't know with certainty.
Is the demographic wide shift to the right started? Has the left gone so far they have finally started alienating sane people who were still left-leaning? Hopefully. But these small pieces of good news are not the solution. Sinema has not declared if she will caucus as a Democrat or Republican or neither. Joe Manchin is still a Democrat. Sinema has not lost any committee position so far. There is evidence this is still all just a trickle rather than an unstoppable wave.
What then is the solution? Short of a mass exodus of representative Democrats to the Republican party, the most appealing scenario I can envisage is a significant splintering of formerly moderate Democrats breaking away to form a new party. It would most certainly suck more votes away from Democrats than from Republicans in future elections. The split would ensure Republican hegemony for at least a decade. That would be a truly significant amount of time that is needed to undo the massive cultural and geopolitical damage Democrats have done to the country. It's what's needed. It's possible it could happen. What would make it a much more possible outcome is if disaffected but seemingly unmovable Joe Manchin were to follow suit with Sinema in the very near future. It's the not the first but the second person to join a movement that actually starts the snowball effect.
This, THIS is the solution in action. We need another high profile Democrat or two to follow suit soon. Whether it's a new independent party or new Republicans or even standalones, the tipping point depends on Democrats more than Republicans now.
More axing at CNN
Mark Dice gleefully discusses the removal of Chris Cillizza at CNN, the latest highlight of purging of losers...
December 11, 2022
December 10, 2022
December 9, 2022
Meanwhile in Canada
Michelle Rempel Garner, member of Canadian parliament provides some good news for a change.
Did that just happen?
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema registering as an Independent?
This doesn't make her suddenly pro-Republican, but at least there's a chance to avoid the 51-49 senate now, especially if Joe Manchin decides to follow suit. And the good news is that with high profile Democrats like Sinema and Tulsi Gabbard leaving the party, the fractures in the Democratic party from the speed rush leftward have finally begun to show in a highly visible and undeniable way.
December 7, 2022
Arizona, what happened?
Georgia was a bad enough situation but the circumstances in Arizona are outright appalling.
Hundreds, if not, thousands, of Maricopa County election workers have come forward with evidence of illegality in this election.
Katie Hobbs refused to debate, did not campaign, and had almost no following. No reasonable person would believe that she actually won this race. She ran against Kari Lake, one of the most popular Republican candidates in a generation.
But Hobbs ran the election, oversaw 30% of election day precinct machines breaking down, had the media in her pocket, and is working with social media platforms to silence her critics.
The power brokers on the left are laughing at you for allowing this to happen America.
Georgia, what happened?
Georgia decided to turn it's back on GOP senate candidate Herschel Walker. Yikes.
...The other Republicans in the statewide races won by 10 points. But Walker, a Trump-endorsed candidate, trails the radical leftist for the US Senate seat. Got that?
UPDATE: with 87% of precincts reporting Newsmax called the race for the Jeremiah Wright radical Raphael Warnock.
Democrats will now hold a 51 to 49 seat majority in the US Senate.
What happened to Georgia???
If Tim Pool were still a lefty, this would be front page news
Tim Pool has been under attack for talking truthfully for quite some time, and it keeps getting worse. These people are domestic terrorists but the FBI doesn't seem to care.
December 5, 2022
Why Georgia matters
Newt Gingrich explains why the runoff election is so important:
Herschel Walker’s election is crucial to Georgia and all of America.
Despite some misconceptions that the Georgia runoff won’t have a major impact, the difference between a 50-50 Senate and a 51-49 Senate is enormous. Vice President Kamala Harris can break ties on the Senate floor – but not in committees.
With 51 seats, Democrats would control every committee. They would be able to report out judges and other Biden administration appointees without needing any Republican votes. They would be able to schedule hearings and report out whatever radical legislation they dream up.
At 50-50, there is genuine power sharing. Every committee has an even number of Democrats and Republicans. All nominations require bipartisan approval to be reported out of committee. Hearings must be held with bipartisan agreement.
This is crucial to stalling the leftward march of government for the next two years.
December 4, 2022
December 2, 2022
December 1, 2022
Let's see what it says
I can't wait to see what Elon Musk reveals about Twitter's election interference. Grab your popcorn.
November 29, 2022
November 28, 2022
FBI role in January 6th? Jimmy Dore discusses.
Not-a-conservative Jimmy Dore discusses the FBI role in the January 6th 'insurrection'. The left has lost Jimmy Dore, proving how insane they have become. Meanwhile, the conspiracy theorists have been proven right (again).
November 27, 2022
The notion that inflation precedes societal collapse
While not universally true, this is an important consideration. Watch this great video from Academy of Ideas, keeping in mind that recent inflation has not been tamed around the world, including in America despite metrics pointing to a possible ebb in progress (thanks predominantly to on-going interest rate hikes that entail their own special problems).
Europe is bound to see further inflation coupled with energy and food concerns, China is facing a myriad of societal problems, while in America the problem will be slower to fully materialize but as purchasing power continues to diminish, expect to see growing unrest without real solutions being enacted. And don't expect those with Democrats wanting more of the same, and Republicans, with only Congress in their column, will be roadblocked in any ideas they put forward. Gridlock will only ensure that not much gets done. In 2024 after a couple of what will probably be bad years, the Democrats will blame obstructionist Republicans and the GOP will blame "more of the same" Democrats. The only shorter term hope for America, is a Republican sweep in 2024. That's probably true for the longer term as well.
November 26, 2022
Wait, you mean Trump was right about GINA?
Bans on Chinese Huawei in the U.S.? Who would have thought China was a problem? Oh, yeah, president Trump.
November 25, 2022
Unintended Consequences illustrated better than I ever could
I just discovered this series on unintended consequences (although not Reason or ReasonTV). It's worth showing to your leftist friends and acquaintances.
November 24, 2022
November 23, 2022
Mitch McConnell is not the guy
Mitch McConnell is not the guy to lead conservatives and Republicans to a strong or lengthy majority. He's fresh off a self-serving Republican loss in what was supposed to be a red wave election. McConnell is not the guy. He's a status quo guy and status quo is not what conservativism and not what America needs at this point in history. Yet there he remains. This goes beyond left and right, he exemplifies the status quo nature of American politics and culture, as it remains mired in a slow drift leftward towards socialism and Orwellian social credit (despite the laudable growing effort to thwart it).
Mitch McConnell has done some good things for conservatism in regards to judicial appointments, but he's not the guy to lead conservatism and a belief in American fundamental values back into preeminence. He's just not. He's not a visionary. In fact that is something he seems to fear as a threat to his position. Not the guy.
November 22, 2022
They admit it, only when it no longer matters.
Hide, defer, obfuscate, deflect, misdirect or whatever they need to do, for as long as they can. In this case the Hunter Biden laptop story is finally coming to light, only because the GOP has congress and now they HAVE to talk about it. Of course they are still trying to divert attention:
November 21, 2022
5 million more votes
I discussed this earlier, when the total votes advantage for Republicans in the midterms was just over 4 million. Now it's 5 million. Tim Pool and Dave Rubin share their takes.
November 20, 2022
Happy Quote of the day
This perspective on the on-going political realignment comes to us via Marc Lotter at the Washington Times:
The Associated Press’ VoteCast, which compares 2020 and 2022 voter demographics, shows Republicans gained 22% more support from Hispanic and Latino voters, 14% more from Black voters, and 5% more from White voters with college degrees. Republicans also expanded our advantage with white voters without a college degree by 6%. This shows Republicans winning more support from critical Democrat voting blocks, as well as expanding its support from traditional conservative voting groups.
So, if you view 2022 strictly in terms of wins and losses of elections, yes, it wasn’t the best result. But getting people to break up with the party they’ve supported blindly for decades is hard and requires patience. Close elections today could point to victories in the years ahead as more and more disillusioned Democrats realize they broke up with Democrats for a reason. The issues remain the same and that inevitable breakup will finally stick in the not-too-distant future.
This is part of the reason why I have said that 2024 holds a lot of promise for conservatives, despite the potential pitfalls.
November 19, 2022
Existential 2024 Dangers
With the White House going after president Trump (yet again) as a response to the Republican congress pursuing the Hunter Biden laptop investigation as a backdrop, Republicans not only a presented a great opportunity for 2024, they also face existential dangers in trying to retake the senate and the White House as well as expanding their lead in congress.
Backlash
The backdrop of the White House going after president Trump is only the beginning. Come January Let's Go Brandon and the rest of the Democrats, along with a gleefully willing media, big tech, entertainment industry and establishment Republicans are going to push back, harder than ever.
It won't just be directed at president Trump. There will be a hue and cry that as the recession gets worse, it's only the Republican congress that is standing in front of the Let's Go Brandon led effort to fix the situation. They are obstructing help will be the one-note chorus. They want the suffering to continue. They have no ideas and are standing in the way of great Democrat ideas. Blah. Blah. Blah.
It's stupid because the Democrats will not compromise and they will not face the culpability of having created the mess (remember the Russian gas hike phoniness?). But despite the stupidity and despite the universal and correct cry from the right that more of the same policies will not solve but merely worsen the situation, that message will not get through the miasma of leftist shills and Republicans could be stuck with 100% of the blame for the worsening economy and global issues.
Worse still, they could actually contribute to that message unintentionally. While proposing many ideas in congress that will inevitably be stalled in the senate, before ever reaching a potential Let's Go Brandon veto, they will investigate the Hunter Biden laptop. That presents an obvious narrative to the left: "the Republicans have no ideas and so are focusing on a non-scandal to distract voters."
Which brings us to their other issue.
Failure
The Republicans are going to be hard pressed to show much success with a bare majority in Congress and a minority in the senate. They will have no major legislative successes to proclaim come 2024. That will be a boon to Democrats but it will also potentially create apathy among conservative voters. You can see that narrative already trying to take hold with the left's accusation that Trump has lost his energy. They want us to feel hopeless. Failure will only reinforce itself in a circular feedback loop.
Where this becomes exceptionally problematic for Republicans is in the election fraud area. Democrats with their early voting schemes, ballot harvesting schemes, etc. have opened up significant doubt on the right about electoral fairness. In losing governorships, in losing much of the ability to do something on a state by state basis about voter IDs, poll watching etc., the Republicans have painted themselves further into a corner. Despite voter shifts to the right in the 2022 midterms, the red wave did not materialize thanks to a concerted effort on the left to ensure days and weeks of vote counting uniformly benefitted their chosen candidates.
While some Republicans seem content to allow the left to win as long as their own fiefdoms survive (ahem, Mitch McConnell), conservatives cannot let that happen. The Republicans in the senate have already ceded some of that fight by allowing current leadership to continue. That means the fight to overcome the rolling failure must be conducted outside of Washington D.C. It must be conducted in state houses, it must be conducted in courts, it must be conducted in communities. Citizens must take action at local and state levels. Failing that, 2024 will be a true failure for Republicans and more importantly, for liberty and justice for all.
November 18, 2022
Chuck Schumer says the quiet part out loud.
Chuck Schumer's stance is that abortion is a right but hey, we need more people so let's boost immigration.
Via Breitbart:
The United States needs more immigration to compensate for declining fertility, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said at a press conference Wednesday...
“Now, more than ever, we’re short of workers,” Schumer said on the Hill at a press conference, which was intended to tout several draft amnesties for illegal migrants... He continued:We have a population that is not reproducing on its own with the same level that it used to. The only way we’re going to have a great future in America is if we welcome and embrace immigrants, the dreamers and all of them — because our ultimate goal is to help the Dreamers [illegals who were brought in by their parents] get a path to citizenship for all 11 million — or however many undocumented there are here [emphasis added].
Breitbart went on to discuss the problem real problem with fertility rates is desired fertility vs. actual fertility. That's a real and important distinction. It's worth clicking the link above for the entire read. There are other ways to help American demographics and the available labor force that Democrats don't want to discuss because they don't help Democrats or their donor class.
Schumer's now openly spoken desire is to legalize millions of voters for Democrats and cheap labor for big business. They are colluding to dilute American jobs, openly.
November 17, 2022
November 16, 2022
Russian missile strike on Poland
NATO member Poland was hit by Russian missiles. Nobody wants this to escalate but Poland is obviously upset about it. I expect some condemnation from NATO but not much more at this point.
Trump announces 2024 run
This speaks for itself. Or rather, president Trump speaks for himself.
Here's the full speech:
November 15, 2022
Take heart conservatives, and stop playing "fair"
I mentioned a while back that a poor midterm performance for Republicans had a silver lining for conservatives. Then more recently, I questioned whether it was time to devolve into chaos (before arguing not to do so). But conservatives, there is reason to take heart. Take a look at this latest House performance snapshot from RCP. What do you see?
I'll tell you what I see; Republicans won the generic congressional ballot vote. At least as of now. They won, not by a "slim majority" but by 4.1%. In other words by 4.3 million votes.
Now we can unfairly use the Democrats' own words against them: the majority of voters have been disenfranchised because the popular majority of voters is not reflected in congressional seats. True, at that ratio the GOP would net out at about only 222 seats. True, we do not stand for majority rule but the constitutional concepts of a representative republic and avoidance of majority tyranny. But so what? Why play fair when we do not clearly get that from the other side?
We can also take hear that the RCP polling (or at least my interpretation of it), was pretty darn close to accurate. What that means is more important than just interpreting poll results. It means the country, at least for now, is drifting towards the right. It's not surprising given how bad this administration, senate and congress have been. In fact it should have been far better a performance, but the electoral wind is still at our back, we are less afraid to mix it up, we are less inclined to roll over and take it. Given all that, given that the Democrats are bound to make things still worse over the next two years, 2024 is shaping up to give us the red tidal wave we wanted in 2022.
Frustration
Is it time to devolve into chaos yet? Or do we just accept that this is going to continue? Frustration from things like this:
Can lead to a lot of frustration. I don't think Kari Lake should just knuckle under and accept a dubious defeat. The best way to deal with dubious results however, is logically, as espoused by Jordan Person in this discussion about president Trump:
Logic does not mean giving up, it means fighting within legal parameters. I know that's hard to do when you feel you're being cheated, but it is ultimately necessary.
November 14, 2022
Climate Change Peer Reviews
Dr. John Robson and CDN do a great job debunking climate change nonsense and activism.
November 13, 2022
Enjoy your stupid life
An adjunct to my previous post, this gentleman has the right idea: enjoy it.
You can try to "fight city hall" and still enjoy your life. They are not only not mutually exclusive, it is imperative to do both at the same time.
The election steal is an on-going business
They shall reap what they sow. If they steal this the looming recession, more Let's Go Brandon, more government, more disaffection for typical Democratic voter disaffection and ultimately more momentum for conservatives for 2024.
Honestly I am feeling fatigued personally. I've been blogging for 14 years and things have moved mostly in the wrong direction. Mostly.
I remember the American resurgence of the 1980's under Ronald Reagan. He was a populist with polish. He was America first. He stood against communism and socialism and big government. He believed in the individual. He revived what made America great. He breathed it into America so well the country was able to elect a Republican congress shortly after his presidency. There were ripples. Even under subsequent Republican presidents (Bush and Bush), that sentiment did not exist. Not until president Trump did I feel like another American resurgence was possible. The Establishment stole it. They stole it from the American people and are trying to kill it. They did not want Reagan, they did not want Trump. So they stole not a presidency or a congress but they stole liberty, and opportunity.
Even now they continue to do it. It is unnerving and demoralizing. It is what they want, they want you to succumb to defeat. Sometimes I have felt that way - give up blogging, it's pointless. No one listens except those who already understand.
This is no time for that. This is the time we must redouble our efforts or the greatest country in the history of the world will perish with not so much as a whimper.
November 12, 2022
November 11, 2022
Tim Pool vs Milo Yiannopoulos
Tim Pool and Milo Yiannopoulos recently discussed the outcome of the midterms. The conversation is quite long but interesting. Milo has some great insights but Tim does challenge him on certain points, and fairly so.
Let's Go Brandon tone deaf
Rep. Steve Scalise on Fox explains why Let's Go Brandon is tone deaf. C'mon man! Let's Go Brandon is as divisive as was president Obama, if not worse. Why would he change in the face of an obvious need?
Credit where it's due?
Inflation cooled in the latest report. No thanks to Let's Go Brandon, it's all due to the aggressive rate hikes from The Fed. They have slammed the brakes on the economy and it's slowly working. The thing is, the delayed effect, when they finally pause or pivot from that approach, the economy will likely be in a deep recession. Several experts weigh in on CNBC.
Fox Business' Charles Payne has a different take, one I am more apt to agree with:
November 10, 2022
Red ripple silver linings?
The country is shifting red, slower than we would like but the shift is on. If Let's Go Brandon wants to ignore that, it's very good news for Republicans for 2024. Especially since he won't be pushed out of running by fellow Democrats after a massive red wave. He'll run and he'll lose, big.
November 9, 2022
Red Ripple
Cue the fail music. The Republican red wave didn't happen. It seems like they're likely to win congress, but the senate is up for grabs. Governorships so far the GOP is down 2 from yesterday. This is not to say that there's a mandate for Let's Go Brandon. This was not a red wave, it was a red ripple.
That's not to call it a horrible night for conservatives. Bad? Almost. Sub-par? Definitely. Nevertheless there are positives to be taken away from this already. I'm not talking here about individual races, though to be sure there are bright spots. I'm not talking about the possibility that Republicans can still take the senate or do well in the remaining uncalled governor races, though both of those are still achievable.
No I'm talking about 2024. Two more years of misery may be just what the country needs to finish shaking off the swamp stew it has been ingesting for more than a decade. Democratic control of key levers means the next two years will not get better as far as inflation, unemployment, wage stagnation, labor force participation, woke culture, crime, illegal immigration etc. That means the rot will fester, and that's bad for America. But so too will the grassroots energy to do something about it. By 2024 that ripple may turn into a tsunami.
If the GOP play their cards right. Mitch McConnell has to go, he left senate wins on the table for the Democrats, just to protect his own fiefdom. The grassroots of the party needs to continue to support MAGA populists. It does not have to be via Trump, though it can be.
The real potential here though are learnings. What did Florida Republicans do right and how does that get translated to other states? Is Trump still the guy or has his window passed? Did Kari Lake's fail to appear to move to the center harm her in the Arizona governor general election and if so how can that be avoided? Many Latinos have moved to the Republican column, how does the GOP grow that further?
Beyond the top line takeaways, the obvious tactical takeaways that I have been arguing since 2008; the core things the GOP must do are (1) engage (2) listen and (3) persuade.
Engagement means reaching out to disaffected communities go to various constituencies (e.g. college educated women, Latinos, African Americans, people with addiction issues). This is a long term, big tent approach to broadening the reach of the party. These groups cannot listen if you don't even talk to them.
Next, listen to their concerns. Understand what it is they want and need from government. This does not mean abandoning conservative values, it means finding out what matters to voters. If you are offering solutions to voting irregularities when gas prices are the issue of the day, you are not understanding the battlefield that is taking shape in front of you.
Lastly once you have engaged and understood (both have to be ongoing processes by the way), you must tailor your solutions to the problems of the day. You do not give up your principles, you determine how to solve the problems, within a conservative, common sense framework. Then, and only then, do you try to persuade the audience that your solution is better than the alternative. And you do so in a positive vision sort of way. If you do not have your own realistic and workable solution you cannot argue that the other guys are wrong because the response will (and should) be "so what, you don't offer an alternative".
All three of these require a well-oiled and robust infrastructure which is something the GOP seems to be lacking at times and in places. So this too must be addressed. Fund raising, intra-party messaging and communication.
The final takeaways are more tactical. We laughed when Let's Go Brandon was in New York stumping for governor Hochul. But they understood their firewall, and shored up a defensive path to victory in key places. This was our mistake. We should have read the room and adjusted our own strategies accordingly. It seems conservatives were just too busy gleefully anticipating a red wave; our mistake.
We believed the polls. Why? Because it looked heavily tilted in our favor. Relying on polling is a mistake we too often make (myself included in trying to account for bad polling). Some of the best pollsters from 2020 did the worst with respect to 2022. Oops. The great Rush Limbaugh often opined that the only poll that matters is the ballot box. Run like you are in a dead heat. Run like you need more votes. Otherwise you turn a red wave into a red ripple.
November 8, 2022
Nope, nope, NOPE!
Elections around the world do not take days or weeks to count, this is an invitation for Democrats to cheat. NO. DO NOT BUY THIS CRAP!
Get this right America
Every election is "the most important election of our lifetime" nowadays. There's an inherent sound of hyperbole when you hear some pundit say that. The Democrats this midterm cycle are going on about how this is about democracy versus a facist far right takedown of America or some such nonsense. The thing is, every election back to and including 2008 have been the some of most important elections in our lifetimes.
Back in 1980, with Jimmy Carter singlehandedly bringing America from a weakened superpower to near also-ran, 1980 was a supremely important election that allowed Ronald Reagan to become president and not only avert a catastrophic Carter re-election, Regan also reinvigorated America. With his relection and the echo of the Republicans' Contract with America, the country enjoyed a remarkable period of growth and strength. From WWII onward, 1980 had become the most important election of the post World War era. Indeed that stood until 2008.
2008 and 2012 were massively important elections that sadly America got wrong. Obama did a great deal of damage to the country all while being praised for his supposed dizzying intellect and having his lack of experience ignored. Meanwhile 2010 and 2014 were important to counteract Obama's woeful policy positions, and America got those right. It got so bad that during the Obama era that all 4 of those election cycles were critically important, along with the 2016 election of Donald Trump, which of the 5 was the most important and stands as a rival to the 1980 win of Ronald Reagan, but came as much more of a surprise to many people. I thought Trump stood a decent chance win but I thought it would be close electorally. His success there surprised me, in a good way. That period marked 5 critical elections in a row, where the country became more and more left leaning and more and more partisan in both directions as it became clear the Republicans could no longer work with Democrats who had drifted far too far to the socialist, dystopian and Orwellian left.
Where America failed between 2016 and 2018 was limited to Congressional Republicans not aligning with the president during their two year bicameral majority and doing as much meaningful work as they could. America got 2018 wrong thanks in large part to a biased media and an energized left. And in 2020, an election where America needed president Trump to win, despite a miassive increase in support he somehow, mysteriously 'lost ' to a man with the intellectual horsepower of a turnip.
Somebody got that one wrong massively, because Let's Go Brandon is Jimmy Carter 2.0 incarnate. That brings us to now. The country desperately needs a brake pedal applied to this guy. Like Emergency Brakes, brake pedal, thrust reversers and anything else you can throw at him. It's important to not just America, but to the entire world that this be halted until 2024 when an actual leader can step back into the void and take the helm. 2024 will then become the most important election of our lifetimes. But until then, you have to get this right America.
November 7, 2022
Rebuke required
C'mon Man! How could anyone have voted for this guy? And how could he not need a shellacking in the midterms?
Wait, who now?Wait, by when???
And who's lying in this situation?
The biggest "Let's Go Brandon" rebuke so far, is coming tomorrow.
Push Polling the polls the day before?
I haven't talked about persuasion polls much (if at all). Unlike typical push polls, a lot of political polls are not intended to sway those being polled but rather those viewing the results of the polls. That could be what's happening right now. The RealClearPolitics average of generic congressional ballots has seen the Republican advantage slip back to +2.5% since pesking well above that mark last week. Why?
It is coming from the Economist/YouGov poll (which has historically had a Democrat tilt in it's results) showing only R+1%, the outlier NBC poll showing D+1% and the ABC News/WaPo poll showing R+2%. These all have dragged down the Republican advantage and all come out in the final days before the midterm election. All of these outfits are pro-Democrat.
In my filter above I've left them in and am still seeing R+3.2%. What if we take them out as dubious inclusions?
Even leaving the ABC/WaPo poll in, it still rises to R+4.2%. But then what about Rasmussen which has a slight Republican tilt? If we remove that, Republicans still lead by 3.5%:
There's no bad way to slice this but it makes predictions difficult. Here's my take on final numbers:
Senate: Republicans 53 or 54.
House: Republicans gain 28-48
Governors: Republicans 30-32
It's optimistic compared to some, but the polls, even the likes of YouGov are still shifting towards Republicans, and hopefully, that's not done yet.
November 6, 2022
November 4, 2022
RCP is getting closer
As of this morning, RealClearPolitics is edging closer to my weighted percentage interpretation of their results. They currently are averaging the results at R+3%. I currently have it as R +4.4% with my filters and weighted averages factored in.
Unemployment is ticking up
On the surface, the jobs report doesn't look bad, but honestly this is not good news.
November 2, 2022
Governor Series: KS - Derek Schmidt
How does Kansas even consider a Democrat for governor? There hasn't been a lot of polling I've seen for this state but where there has been, the incumbent Democrat has a 2 to 3 point lead. Derek Schmidt would be a solid governor for Kansas.
Governor Series: NY - Lee Zeldin
New York is a tough tough road for any Republican, but Lee Zeldin does have a shot at the governorship and he'd be a good governor. Even a fire hydrant would do a better job than you-know-who.
My latest take on RCP polling
Previously, my take on Real Clear Politics (my rationale explained briefly here) showed Republicans up by a whopping 5.5% on the average of their polls I felt were worth inclusion. That's slipped a little bit but still showing a healthy GOP lead in the generic congressional ballot.
Here's my latest take on the available polls, 3 new ones have been added by RCP - NPR/PBS/Marist (R +3%), CBS News Battleground Tracker (R +2%) and CNN (R+4), with the largest sample being the CBS News poll and also having the smallest Republican advantage. All three have brought the average Republican lead down.
Keep this grain of salt in mind: all three newly added polls are from Democrat-favoring institutions. This could be damage control. I actually don't mind that as long as conservatives and like-minded independents do indeed get out and vote. Why? Because the alternative false narrative they could provide would be worse and the Left is missing that opportunity (unless the idea is already in play on a broader scale than we realize).
Here's what they would do if they were not so blindly and bitterly partisan; start inflating the Republican advantage in these polls to ridiculous levels (R+12%, R +9%, R+11%) and then when it inevitably comes in short of that range, say at R+5%, the narrative could become that voters wanted change but at the last minute realized that they really didn't want a Republican majority and many voters pulled back and as 'reason took over' decided to revert to their true inclination to vote Democrat. That narrative would keep the Democrats are the true majority notion alive, whereas sayin it's R +2% and then it turns out it ends up as R +5%, they will have to admit they took a deserved drubbing.
Or of course, they could just start to blame Biden.
Governor Series: MI - Tudor Dixon
Tudor Dixon would make a great governor for Michigan, unlike the train wreck in the role right now. Dixon is a bit of a longshot but some polls have her tied. This is a state where every vote will matter.
Governor Series: OR - Christine Drazan
Oregon could have a Republican governor for the first time in seemingly forever. Despite having some vitriolic replies to her tweets on Twitter, Christine Drazan leading in the polls in a three way race.
Oregonians are tired of politicians who put their personal agendas ahead of hard-working families.
— Christine Drazan (@ChristineDrazan) July 25, 2022
I'm running to provide a new direction for Oregon.
Check out our campaign's first TV ad of the general election ⬇️ #orpol pic.twitter.com/gmzWD12tuP
Governor Series: NV - Joe Lombardo
This is a tight race, but Joe Lombardo is the right guy for Nevada.
Governor Series: AZ - Kari Lake
Kari Lake talks about her agenda, her opponent hides from debates and reporters. Forhtright vs. Suspicious? Yep.
October 31, 2022
Governor Series: WI - Tim Michels
Tim Michels is not a politician. Endorsed by President Trump. He’s a business leader, he’s a builder, and he’s a veteran. And he's closing in the polls. He's the governor Wisconsin needs, his opponent is clearly not.
October 30, 2022
Updated Generic Congressional ballot (me vs RCP)
Here's my latest take on the RCP numbers for the generic congressional ballot. If you strip out Trafalgar for being a REpblican leaning firm, the numbers actually get better for the GOP than they appear below, rising to a Republican advantage of +7.6%. But since that is being selectively biased for a better result, let's stick with the below chart as my latest view:
Being cautiously optimistic as I am, I am getting close to conceding that this may indeed be a red wave election. Not quite yet, but I am cautiously optmistic it just could be.
October 29, 2022
Nope, it wasn't ultra-MAGA
Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul Pelosi was attacked by a leftist, not an ultra-MAGA type.
Mark Dice has a few entertaining updates on the Elon Musk Twitter takeover
Mark Dice shares his take:
October 28, 2022
Updated Generic Congressional Ballot Polling
This is pretty easy to upkeep since I've set it up, so why not update my RealClearPolitics interpretation more frequently between now and November 8th? Here's the snapshot as of today:
As a reminder, I'm only including the latest poll from each pollster, happening the last ten days where only Likely Voters (LV) are included. I have also excluded any polls for being revealing a sample size, and I am weighting the polls impact based on their size. Other factors such as pollster bias or question wording have not been considered. Nevertheless this still provides a more relevant result than how RCP average their average of polls.
You can see that the advantage has ballooned as I had predicted. Even if I include as far back as October 11th, which I believe is probably a bit stale, the GOP still hold a +4.3% advantage. Further if I remove supposedly Republican biased polls (Federalist, Rasmussen, and Trafalgar), I still get a Republican +3.6% advantage over the last 17 days of polls, or Republican +4.3% over the last 8 days. I'm not trying to cherry pick, just show that the polls are showing voters moving to the right.
Tulsi Gabbard discusses Elon Musk's Twitter with Russell Brand
Tulsi Gabbard explains to Russell Brand why she believes Elon Musk's Twitter takeover matters.
Governor Predictions
I recently finished a list of brief appeals for voters for senators in toss-up states. I will soon be doing the same for governors and hopefully time permitting, for congressional races as well. Meanwhile here are a couple of predictions for governor races across the nation in the upcoming midterm elections, one from the right and one from the left.
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