December 12, 2022

Sinema is good news, but not the solution

Democrats like Senator Krysten Sinema who leave the Democratic party to sit as an independent are a sign of the problem, and a reaction to the problem but they are not necessarily part of the solution. The problem, is that the Democratic party has over decades and decades continued to tilt so far to the left that they are in many if not most ways, socialists.  They want to to overhaul the fundamental principles of America and in large part they have succeeded.  That's the main problem, the real problem.  It was always the direction but it has accelerated dramatically since 2008.  Unravelling their mess is the challenge of our lifetimes.  

Thankfully their ship has listed so far to the left it now has all the makings of a capsizing in progress.  That's great.  But it's also not.  There are a couple of problems with the death spiral of the socialist Democratic party when you notice the likes of Sinema abandoning ship.  It's an indicator that there's a problem for sure.  But firstly, it's just one person.  Jeff Van Drew switched parties in 2019/2020 and now Sinema has done so in 2022, oh and Tulsi Gabbard also left the party this year (but she also bowed out of politics as a candidate at least).  That's not exactly a wave of departures.   It's a trickle, much like the expected but not materialized Red Wave of the 2022 midterms.  A departure here and a departure there are clearly good signs, and they should be applauded for awakening from their 'woke' stupor. But the Blue ship socialism continues to ride the seas largely intact and unchanged.

Secondly, these individual moves may signal a larger, longer term trend but they could also be for individual gain - Van Drew may have seen the signs on the wall in his particular district.  Gabbard may have been sick of politics or seen the opportunity for more money in the private sector. Sinema may have been sick of harassment from within her own party for her reluctance to groupthink the nation's way into insane deficit spending in light of the inflation monster that is still raging.  I'm not disparaging the motives of any of these individuals, simply questioning if it is indeed a sign of a real rupture in the party or just people being personally practical.  We don't know with certainty.  Our confirmation bias leads us to believe they have seen the light.  We want that to be true but we don't know with certainty.

Is the demographic wide shift to the right started?  Has the left gone so far they have finally started alienating sane people who were still left-leaning? Hopefully.  But these small pieces of good news are not the solution.  Sinema has not declared if she will caucus as a Democrat or Republican or neither.  Joe Manchin is still a Democrat. Sinema has not lost any committee position so far.  There is evidence this is still all just a trickle rather than an unstoppable wave

What then is the solution?  Short of a mass exodus of representative Democrats to the Republican party, the most appealing scenario I can envisage is a significant splintering of formerly moderate Democrats breaking away to form a new party.  It would most certainly suck more votes away from Democrats than from Republicans in future elections. The split would ensure Republican hegemony for at least a decade. That would be a truly significant amount of time that is needed to undo the massive cultural and geopolitical damage Democrats have done to the country. It's what's needed.  It's possible it could happen.  What would make it a much more possible outcome is if disaffected but seemingly unmovable Joe Manchin were to follow suit with Sinema in the very near future.  It's the not the first but the second person to join a movement that actually starts the snowball effect. 

This, THIS is the solution in action.  We need another high profile Democrat or two to follow suit soon.  Whether it's a new independent party or new Republicans or even standalones, the tipping point depends on Democrats more than Republicans now.

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