November 7, 2022

Push Polling the polls the day before?

I haven't talked about persuasion polls much (if at all).  Unlike typical push polls, a lot of political polls are not intended to sway those being polled but rather those viewing the results of the polls. That could be what's happening right now.  The RealClearPolitics average of generic congressional ballots has seen the Republican advantage slip back to +2.5% since pesking well above that mark last week.  Why?

It is coming from the Economist/YouGov poll (which has historically had a Democrat tilt in it's results) showing only R+1%, the outlier NBC poll showing D+1% and the ABC News/WaPo poll showing R+2%.  These all have dragged down the Republican advantage and all come out in the final days before the midterm election.  All of these outfits are pro-Democrat.

In my filter above I've left them in and am still seeing R+3.2%.  What if we take them out as dubious inclusions?

Even leaving the ABC/WaPo poll in, it still rises to R+4.2%.  But then what about Rasmussen which has a slight Republican tilt? If we remove that, Republicans still lead by 3.5%:

There's no bad way to slice this but it makes predictions difficult.  Here's my take on final numbers:

Senate: Republicans 53 or 54.
House: Republicans gain 28-48
Governors: Republicans 30-32

It's optimistic compared to some, but the polls, even the likes of YouGov are still shifting towards Republicans, and hopefully, that's not done yet.

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