Germany immigration mistakes manifesting

Meanwhile in Germany, immigration mistakes are starting to get addressed.

Red Ripple

Cue the fail music.  The Republican red wave didn't happen. It seems like they're likely to win congress, but the senate is up for grabs.  Governorships so far the GOP is down 2 from yesterday.  This is not to say that there's a mandate for Let's Go Brandon. This was not a red wave, it was a red ripple.

That's not to call it a horrible night for conservatives.  Bad?  Almost.  Sub-par?  Definitely.  Nevertheless there are positives to be taken away from this already.  I'm not talking here about individual races, though to be sure there are bright spots.  I'm not talking about the possibility that Republicans can still take the senate or do well in the remaining uncalled governor races, though both of those are still achievable. 

No I'm talking about 2024.  Two more years of misery may be just what the country needs to finish shaking off the swamp stew it has been ingesting for more than a decade.  Democratic control of key levers means the next two years will not get better as far as inflation, unemployment, wage stagnation, labor force participation, woke culture, crime, illegal immigration etc. That means the rot will fester, and that's bad for America.  But so too will the grassroots energy to do something about it.  By 2024 that ripple may turn into a tsunami.

If the GOP play their cards right. Mitch McConnell has to go, he left senate wins on the table for the Democrats, just to protect his own fiefdom.   The grassroots of the party needs to continue to support MAGA populists.  It does not have to be via Trump, though it can be.

The real potential here though are learnings.  What did Florida Republicans do right and how does that get translated to other states? Is Trump still the guy or has his window passed? Did Kari Lake's fail to appear to move to the center harm her in the Arizona governor general election and if so how can that be avoided?  Many Latinos have moved to the Republican column, how does the GOP grow that further?

Beyond the top line takeaways, the obvious tactical takeaways that I have been arguing since 2008; the core things the GOP must do are (1) engage (2) listen and (3) persuade.

Engagement means reaching out to disaffected communities go to various constituencies (e.g. college educated women, Latinos, African Americans, people with addiction issues).  This is a long term, big tent approach to broadening the reach of the party.  These groups cannot listen if you don't even talk to them. 

Next, listen to their concerns.  Understand what it is they want and need from government.  This does not mean abandoning conservative values, it means finding out what matters to voters.  If you are offering solutions to voting irregularities when gas prices are the issue of the day, you are not understanding the battlefield that is taking shape in front of you.

Lastly once you have engaged and understood (both have to be ongoing processes by the way),  you must tailor your solutions to the problems of the day.  You do not give up your principles, you determine how to solve the problems, within a conservative, common sense framework.  Then, and only then, do you try to persuade the audience that your solution is better than the alternative.  And you do so in a positive vision sort of way. If you do not have your own realistic and workable solution you cannot argue that the other guys are wrong because the response will (and should) be "so what, you don't offer an alternative".  

All three of these require a well-oiled and robust infrastructure which is something the GOP seems to be lacking at times and in places.  So this too must be addressed.  Fund raising, intra-party messaging and communication.

The final takeaways are more tactical.  We laughed when Let's Go Brandon was in New York stumping for governor Hochul.  But they understood their firewall, and shored up a defensive path to victory in key places. This was our mistake.  We should have read the room and adjusted our own strategies accordingly.  It seems conservatives were just too busy gleefully anticipating a red wave; our mistake.  

We believed the polls.  Why?  Because it looked heavily tilted in our favor. Relying on polling is a mistake we too often make (myself included in trying to account for bad polling).  Some of the best pollsters from 2020 did the worst with respect to 2022.  Oops. The great Rush Limbaugh often opined that the only poll that matters is the ballot box.  Run like you are in a dead heat.  Run like you need more votes. Otherwise you turn a red wave into a red ripple.

Institutionalizing errors

The American experience is replete with examples of mistakes that have taken root to become part of the institutions of every day. There are of course governmental examples that politically we tend to focus on. There are also many private sector examples. The conundrum currently facing the automobile industry in America is a prime example.

The auto sector did not suddenly drop anchor and punch a hole in the side of their own ship. The roots of this crisis date back decades. Ultimately what drives consumers, pardon the pun, is quality and price. Foreign automakers continue to find a better footing in delivering these key factors to market, simplifying the purchase decision in a way not suitable to the likes of GM, Ford and Chrysler.

Price: In the case of GM, both legacy costs and production costs mean that cars cannot be produced on a level playing field with Toyota or Honda. Challenges from Dealers and the UAW make proper restructuring more of a fable than a possibility.

Quality: Toyota has a better business model. The result - quicker to market, and better quality product.

The auto industry is indicative of the problems in government. When bad decisions become the operational procedures of an organization, bad things follow. The difference between the auto industry and government is the possible range of outcomes.

For GM et al., bailout may solve the problem. More likely it will only forestall the inevitable - a collapse gets punted down the road for a few years. Sounds like the case for Social Security, a little, no? The other alternative is to not bail out the industry. Allow it, or force it, to accept Chapter 11 restructuring and do so aggressively. Make things run leaner, give the company wiggle room to capitalize on it's new found desire to lead and thrive once again. Tough medicine, but medicine the patient (GM) doesn't seem willing to or able to take itself.

For the government's institutionalized blunders the cure may be more difficult. But there is an opportunity here to avoid consuming more of the same poison that has created the problems in the first place. Starting with the auto industry bailout. There is a right side and a wrong side to this. There's an opportunity for Republicans to get on the right side of this and make great strides in their image of being part of the problem.

The tricky part is that Obama can straddle the issue. Change can mean fixing things to back to the way they worked in the 1950's (re: GM, Ford, Chrysler). So he can cleverly argue, "yes let's bail them out but to be safe, let's add lots of regulation because clearly management at these companies screwed up." Implicit is the argument that Obama knows better. Of course he does, he's The One. He can fix what others could not. A Democratic government will ride to the rescue of the industry. GM will be able to struggle along for a few more years, out of the spotlight of course. And the media will launch into applause mode - Obama made the realization of the Volt possible. Look what he's done for GM, for humanity, for Mother Earth...the sugar levels will be unpalatable for those of us on the right. But GM, will only have forestalled it's problems. Certainly enough to get past 2010, and hopefully for Obama, enough to get past 2012. Until GM falters again in Obama's second term and the cycle will repeat itself. But Obama reaffirms that union vote for as long as he needs it.

Then there's the right course of action. Opposing the bailout. It's a super-risky strategy, one very likely to backfire at the ballot box. But it's the right thing to do for America, something conservatives typically can get behind. And something Democrats typically pull out their 10' pole to avoid touching. What's at stake is America's future. GM is still an important part of America. As GM goes, so goes the nation. GM's preeminence has been cut in half over the last 5 decades. Is America next? The battle is not for the next election (as Democrats tend to view it), but for the 21st century and America's part in it.

The right course of action is to use tough love. And then, the tricky part is to convince America, convince GM, convince the United Auto Workers, that this really is the best course of action and that everyone has to work together for the future of their jobs, their industry and their country. That's a tough, tough sell. But it's a sale worth making; for the Republican party, and more importantly for the country.