June 30, 2020

John Roberts - Disappointment

John Roberts was supposed to be a big win for conservatives when he became not only a Supreme Court Justice but the Chief Justice.  But since being an enabler for Obamacare he has as often as not sided with the liberal justices on the Supreme Court and in a not insignificant way. Dan McLaughlin blames it on lack of courage:
The chief is the opposite of Anthony Kennedy, whose sin was the hubris to maximize the power of the federal courts and his own votes in nearly every case. Roberts remains what he was before his appointment, a conventional conservative legal theorist who believes in many of the doctrines and judicial philosophies one would hear at any Federalist Society gathering.

But courage is lacking. Over and over again, Roberts has failed to follow through on the rule of law. His defenders point to his big-picture vision of judicial modesty and incrementalism: that conservatives should avoid big, wrenching moves, and build small victories in doctrine today that will accumulate to larger ones tomorrow. But in law, as in politics, tomorrow never comes without courage today.
Maybe. To be honest I no longer care to figure out what his motivation is. What matters are the results and his have been just short of abysmal. He's a huge disappointment. Go figure, another Bush appointee who turned out to be a squishy conservative, or pro-establishment. That's a typical feature of a Bush appointee (and I mean any Bush).  Yes, there are exceptions but that's the problem - they're exceptions.

June 27, 2020

June 26, 2020

Joe Biden has killed more Americans

Back in the primaries, Joe Biden claimed 150 million American were killed by guns.  Yesterday he said 120 million Americans have been killed by COVID-19.  That's 270 million dead Americans, in a country with a population in the 310 million range that's 87% of the American population killed by those two causes.



This is the man Democrats want to lead the country?  This is the man the media is pushing?  C'mon Man!

I'm pretty sure he knows those numbers are not correct.  They were probably just slip ups.  But even that is concerning because he''s made the same basic math mistake more than once.  That means either:

(1)  he's deliberately lying to win more votes from the uninformed,
(2)  he's really unaware of the facts,
(3)  he's not all there,
(4)  he's a histrionic exaggerator (one of the things Democrats claim to hate about Trump), or
(5)  he's just prone to making a lot of gaffes

In any of those scenarios is that someone you want with their finger on the nuclear trigger of the most powerful military in the history of the world?  The dangerous nature of him being commander in chief genuinely scares me.

Friday Musical Interlude (COVID-19 Edition) - Sick and Tired

Fats Domino from 1958.

June 25, 2020

Biden will win 555 electoral college votes

LOL - Trump down by 9000 points. Okay 14. This NYT poll, like so many others so far, is simply not even directionally instructive.

June 24, 2020

Polling shift is bad news for president Trump

Since I first published my thoughts on the 2020 race for the presidency, there has been a slight shift and it is not good news for president Trump. Then again, it's not really what I would consider a significant shift. The one state that has changed has moved to Joe Biden's column and it's a state that president Trump won in 2016 - Michigan.

Here's the situation, every swing state for which I have assessed the polls, and there are 14 of them, none of them have run polls that have met a reasonable criteria for inclusion in predicting the state as an electoral college win for either candidate Trump or Biden. The polls are polling registered voters instead of Likely Voters, or they are too small of a sample or they may have a large margin of error or be a polling outfit that FiveThirtyEight deems untrustworthy or having a failing grade due to the standards applied or the polls are simply too old to be relevant. And my criteria right now are looser than they would be come October.

The main point to take away is that most every poll so far is useless. But there has been one change as I mentioned, Michigan has swung to Joe Biden's column. Now that said there were only two polls that were worth keeping: Trafalgar Group and EPIC-MRA. The former, and most recent (and a Republican affiliated pollster) had Biden ahead by one point. The latter is 3 weeks old which is not too old, but it had Biden ahead by 16 points. I have not seen the internals on the polls - how it was weighted between Republicans, Democrats and Independents - but I am very suspicious of the polls, despite it otherwise meeting my inclusion criteria.

Because there is more than one poll for the state the weighted average of the two polls was applied and I have Biden at 53% of the votes, and thus winning the state and putting him over 200 electoral college votes. But common sense says to discount that result. Two polls with a 15 point swing clearly indicate a problem somewhere. Conversely both polls have Biden ahead, and despite being more recent, the Republican poll of likely voters still had Joe Biden ahead. It's a concern, but it's not a crisis at this point.

For what it's worth, here's what it looks like to me right now:

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