August 12, 2020

Kamala Chameleon

Normally I wait until Friday to provide a musical interlude on this blog, but since Joe Biden has selected Kamala Harris as his VP I felt it was only fitting to do something today.  Since she's positioned herself as both highly progressive and a hard law and order anti-progressive type (more on her two-faced nature to follow)  I thought I'd dedicate a song to her that captures her two-faced, chameleon-like nature.

I give you, Culture Club:



For context, here's a discussion on some of her two-faced nature:

Contrast looters vs. business owners

The looters seem to think it's their right to loot.


Seems pretty selfish. The business owners on the other hand are the victims here:


Looting is not reparations (setting aside the relative validity of that concept). It's theft. It's driven by selfishness from the same far leftists who

August 11, 2020

Biden selection for VP announced

Joe Biden has selected his running mate. Kamala Harris.  I though that was the wrestler that just died recently but whatever.  This was not a big surprise.  However, the deceased wrestler would have been a better pick.

She's a radical.  Proof to follow.



Want to see authoritarianism in action?

Stop saying it's Trump, look at the Chinese Communist Party.  This is the type of government ANTIFA types want in America:


So many people do not understand the garbage they are supporting - that means not only leftist progressives who excuse anything that happens in countries like China but also people who unwittingly support unfettered globalism and have, through their own ignorance, allowed China to usurp every other country's production and industrial base.

Don't be blind to it or else you are part of the problem.  You are an enabler, both at home and internationally.  Do not allow this to continue.  Buy American.  Support local business.  Stand up for your country and your flag and the beliefs of the country's founders.  They are not evil beliefs, they are right.  Don't keep that notion to yourself.  Share it with those who doubt.  Explain it to them, or guide them to others who can do so if you do not feel qualified for the task.  And if you feel unqualified, educate yourself so that it becomes easier next time.

America is facing an existential threat to its existence and its guiding principles.  If you do not defend it, you do not deserve it.  Then maybe if we, as humanity, are luckily it will be born again someplace else in the future.  But don't count on it.

August 10, 2020

Coronavirus Karens

Watch well into this video to see a potential root cause of why people are acting the way they are (hint - it's media misinformation and hysteria).

Sweden - the case of the COVID-19 curve

Sweden took a "light touch" approach to COVID-19, allowing much of it's population to be exposed to the disease and using primarily voluntary social distancing as the method to prevent the spread of the disease.  Experts in Sweden even said the approach was a mistake.  But the data, the graph does not lie:



Compare that to the response in the United States, and the resulting curve:



Obviously the geography is different in the United States. There's a much bigger land mass, and as the infection spread to new areas, new cases occurred.  So too, new deaths.  The United States has a much larger population than Sweden.  Taking the same approach as Sweden in the U.S. would result in a much larger death toll than otherwise, as Sweden did have the highest death rate from the disease in all of Europe.  As the Washington Post, favoring all things Democrat-panic as it relates to COVID-19,  pointed out:
Deaths in Sweden, though, have been eight times higher than in Denmark and 19 times higher than in Norway, even though Sweden is only double each neighbors’ size.
On the other hand, perhaps all Sweden has done is skip flattening the curve and taking the death toll  hit all at once. After all you cannot keep people isolated forever. It's very likely that Denmark and Norway will continue to see deaths and their death curves lag on for some time as they slowly revert to normal, or else see the lower rates indefinitely as their economies lag behind Sweden's over the longer term. 

It's apparent that there would be far too many deaths in the U.S. if it followed Sweden's approach, what's not clear is whether it would result in more deaths, or just more in a shorter period of time.  Only time and more data will tell.  This is one more example of my 50 Experiments Theorem that if different places try different approaches, it will yield a variety of results from which we can select the best option.  The alternative is one mandate for everyone (in this case in the entire world) and if it doesn't work, we're all going to be screwed.

August 8, 2020

Saturday Learning Series - Philosophy #17 (Death)

More introductory philosophy, this time, on the topic of death:


August 7, 2020

Friday Musical Interlude - Way Down We Go

Icelandic band Kaleo's bluesy Way Down We Go from 2015 offers proof that there are some new bands do care about quality music, writing, singing, instrumental skills, production etc.  There's still hope for music. 

August 6, 2020

Joe Biden steps in it again (of course he did)

Joe Biden made yet another racist gaffe today, watch the first 36 seconds of the clip below for details:



It's not the first time Joe has said racist stuff, not by far. By way of background, here is just a small sample:




NY about to launch latest fake attack on president Trump, NRA

President Trump's tax records are going to be the latest attempt to "gotcha" the president - an October surprise starting in August.
The office of the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus Vance, is seeking eight years of the president’s personal and corporate tax records, but has disclosed little about what prompted the prosecutor and his team to request the records beyond payoffs to women to silence them about alleged affairs with Trump in the past.

Lawyers for Vance told a judge in New York on Monday that he was justified in demanding the records from Trump, citing public reports of “extensive and protracted criminal conduct at the Trump Organization”.
Not only if I were an American voter would I not care if the Trump Organization may have breached some tax laws, I'd be seriously angry that they keep trying this crap to take down the president.  No matter what they announce, I advise you - be skeptical.

Keep in mind that Ctrus Vance Jr. is the same liberal prosecutor who went after Paul Manafort and who refused to prosecute Harvey Weinstein.

UPDATE:  The NY Attorney General is seeking to sue the NRA in order to disband the organization.  They are clearly seeking a litigious assault on anything conservative.  They have weaponized themselves as a political organization. New York must be stopped.

UPDATE:  It appears that there is no Trump prosecution coming, just the NRA prosecution and the media jumped the gun on the former, assuming the NRA prosecution was a Trump announcement.

Sally Yates throws James Comey under the bus

It looks more and more like the jig is up on the Democrat-media-complex phony Trump-Russia collusion scandal.  As the Senate investigates what happened and why, and as the Bill Barr and John Durham investigations have entered the criminal investigation phase it really seems like everyone is abandoning ship to save themselves.  But they seem to be doing so in a coordinated way; that is, to blame former FBI Director James Comey as the rogue agent who was the lawbreaker in the scheme. Everyone else was acting in good faith based on falsehoods generated by Comey.



To be clear, James Comey was a bad actor and a scumbag who betrayed his position, his agency and his country. But that alone does not exonerate everyone else. Hopefully the trail that leads inevitably to Comey does not abruptly end there.

August 5, 2020

RealClearPolitics average of polls is useless

Here's how you know that the RealClearPolitics average of polls is well, useless (or garbage, if you prefer).  If all their averages are correct, this would be the result:



Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com


But by using their polls, and filtering as I have in the past, for Likely Voter polls, acceptable margin of error polls, trusted pollsters (according to FiveThirtyEight's ranking of pollsters), sample size and recency - as well as now adjusting for the pollster biases as per FiveThirtyEight, here's what it looks like to me:



Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

The average of polls are garbage, probably because most of the polls themselves are flawed in one way or another.  I would spend some time drilling down on it, but it is pointless at the moment - in a month or so, the polls will tighten.  If Biden is very close in Texas and Georgia and +6 in Pennsylvania and as high as +15 in some polls in battleground states, then I'm an artichoke. 

Remember, these pollsters had Hillary Clinton winning a similar landslide in 2016.

Beirut blast footage

A massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon does not appear to be war or terror related but the footage is stunning in terms of the power of the blast.


China weather oddities continue

I've been focusing a lot on China lately because I think they're an existential threat to world peace and to the interests of many other nations.  But also, they have been having a lot, and I mean a lot, of unusual weather, which I find more than just a little curious.

August 4, 2020

China Landgrab

China wants more land, and more sea.  They are an existential threat to world peace.


And now, 2+2=5

Life has officially gotten ridiculous.

Why Ellen, and why now?

Apparently Ellen and her producer are mean.  And it's coming out now because she's been photographed talking with George Bush at a football game.  In other words she's not woke enough.

August 3, 2020

#Walkaway matters more now

We're less than 100 days from the election. People who have walked away from the Democratic party have a reason and those reasons,now more than ever, need to be heard.

July 31, 2020

Big Trouble in Leftist China

China, already beset by flooding, earthquakes, summer snowsstarvation, several plagues (re-emergent COVID-19 as well as swine flu and Bubonic plague), internal strife and even hostile neighbors and a gold scam, now also experiencing a locust plague.  It sounds practically Biblical in nature.




Friday Musical Interlude - The Last Stop movie

The story of Lynryd Skynyrd.


July 30, 2020

RIP Herman Cain

Unfortunately a victim of the COVID-19 corona virus, Herman Cain passed away.  He had some great ideas for the country and ran for president in 2012.  He was 74, and seemed like a really decent man.

July 29, 2020

In case you forgot what he said in 2018

Paul Joseph Watson pointed out how God awful Portland was.  Except now it's worse.  Way worse in fact.

Finally! A conservative job site!

In reaction to the everything Left Big Tech and the woke businesses comes Unwoke.hr - a conservative job site.  We need more of these types of responses to Big Tech; Parler instead of Twitter is another good example.  But there is not enough of it yet.  We need more.  And trust me - these companies will thrive.

Big Tech tries to silence conservatives before the election

Jim Jordan recaps just some recent examples for us:

July 28, 2020

It's time conservatives engaged in litigious warfare

How do you fight fake news?  Lawsuits.

Dr. Steve Turley looks at some of the current situations, and there's a conclusion to be drawn; lawsuits may work.

Big Tech censorship run amok

Tim Pool is irate, and he's completely justified.



UPDATE:  Maybe someone in Washington D.C. is listening.

Predictions #2: The Incoming Currency Crisis & the Bubble

The latest of my peeks into predictions about the near of far future.  Is a currency crisis on the way? Are we about to see the latest Bubble burst? Jack Chapple prognosticates on both.


How the Boomers screwed the West (Part 1)

The Baby Boom generation messed up, badly.  They've taken the promise of America, and The West in general, and wasted it.  Perhaps it wasn't entirely their fault - after all, they were raised by The Greatest Generation (the one that lived through the Great Depression and World War II) and they have to shoulder some of the responsibility for not raising their children to the level that was required by a sustainable society. Unfortunately, that degradation of parenting only worsened in subsequent generations.

The purpose of this series is not to lambaste Boomers but to learn from their mistakes in the hope that someone, or many someones, who sees this is inspired to improve things for future generations.

In the first part of this series we take a look at what created the baby boom generation.  My take from what I have read is that having suffered through two catastrophes of WWII and the Great Depression, and then being thrust into a boom era (particularly in America) where things were getting better and better economically at a rapid clip, they wanted to ensure that their children wanted for nothing.  It's a logical outcome - why would you want your children to suffer the same hardships you suffered?  You hear it so often, even in polling - do you think your children will be better off than you?  It's part of the psyche of the West - the zeitgeist if you will.  But what they seemingly failed to understand was that the struggle created the appreciation of the success.  Being handed everything leads to no personal will to strive, it leads instead to a selfish, entitled hedonistic belief system.   Not only were the Boomers self absorbed, they felt entitled to personal freedom but held little or no accompanying sense of personal responsibility.

The roots of those traits can be traced to their upbringing.




July 27, 2020

Brookings Institute nervous as more Russia collusion hoax info comes out

Left wing think tank the Brookings Institute, was involved in the phony dossier that was used to go after president Trump.  They should be nervous today as more info comes out, indicating their involvement.

There's an online knitting mob of SJWs

Dr. Karlyn Borysenko shares her WalkAway-style story, her knitting mob story and her first Trump rally experience for PragerU.


In an election year, it's an important story to hear.

July 24, 2020

Conservatives are too damn quiet

Here's the proof in a great discussion posted by Tim Pool:



I know, I know, we'll speak up on election day. I don't think that's enough anymore. Where is the counter to indoctrination being foisted on our children by teachers, the media, and now sports 'heros'? It needs to be us and it needs to be now.

Predictions #1: The Fourth Turning

In turbulent times having the ability to predict outcomes is accurately is not just something comforting (or disturbing if the outcome is negative), it provides a massive opportunity to prepare properly and possibly even prosper.  Right now we are going through turbulent times, even though that is nothing new under the sun.  In light of that I've decided occasionally to include a series of posts called Predictions.  I will feature various predictive videos related to predictions about the future.  This is the first instance.  I do not necessarily subscribe to the theories or believe the predictions.  I may or may not.  But in any prediction, theory or idea, there is potential for learning.  It is in that spirit that these predictions are being shared on this blog.

I've always been of the mind that cycles dominate everything from the universe, to life, to economics, to sports, to politics - you name it and it is driven by cycles.  William Strauss and Neil Howe had a book of theirs published in December 1997 called The Fourth Turning.  It predicted the chaos we are seeing today and somewhat prophetically, a COVID-type trigger.  But it goes beyond where we are now and predicts worse to come before it gets better... or worse.

We need an IPOTO to counter Imperialist Communist China

Indo-Pacific Oceanic Treaty Organization. IPOTO. That's my suggestion for a name for it.  Is it coming?  In order to counter Chinese territorial aggression, it should.  Let Europe increase it's spending and prove it's worth defending with NATO.

This video is from early 2019, but the idea still resonates:

Friday Musical Interlude - Charlie Pride

From 1971, Kiss An Angel Good Morning.

July 23, 2020

Chinese predatory mercantilism

China has been preying on weaker nations and those nations, like Sri Lanka are not happy about it:

China IS the existential threat to America

Alright America, you need to stop your navel gazing right now. Matters of racism, the proper response to COVID-19 and other such things pale in comparison to the existential threat of the Communist Party of China trying to take advantage of the rest of the world.

While president Trump realizes this, too many Americans are distracted by what amount to trivialities when it comes to the future of the nation.  This is not to say other things do not matter, just that they are far less urgent things to be dealt with. 

I'll explore this more in the future, but for now, here's an update on China and it's impact on America, as well as the status of the Three Gorges Dam:



UPDATE: Den of spies.

July 22, 2020

Can Germany be saved from Merkel's love for China?

Germany stands athwart America's and it's growing list of allies in the effort to derail communist China's global ambitions.  But Merkel does not remain unchallenged within Germany.

China is destroying the Mekong River

Here's how and what countries are being impacted:

George Friedman predicts the rest of the 21st century

The American age.



One possibility that Friedman does not consider is artificial birth.  Birth rates may indeed naturally decline over time and the need to expand populations could create as a result, a desire to increase immigration. But if women are not required to endure labor to have a child then perhaps family sizes could begin to rise again.  There are other dependencies that impact that one factor - for example religion, or the ability to have designer children, or the extension of lifespan that would change the dynamic or timelines of child rearing age. 

The point is there is a logic to Friedman's projections but in order to get the geopolitics right, it's important to get other components like technology right.  Most of us will be around longer than septuagenarian George Friedman.  He posited these things in 2015.  We may be around long enough to see if he's right.  I would hazard a guess that if he gets the other parts right, the geopolitics he predicts are highly probable.  But it's those other parts that are the really really tricky bit.

July 21, 2020

When life is upside down

When life is upside down, Black Lives Matter can commit actual crimes and go free, but self-defense will get you prosecuted.

George Friedman on geopolitics of the world right now

George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, provides his take on geopolitics and pandemics and the United States' and China's place in the world in the 21st century.  I don't believe he has everything right here, but there are a lot of good points he makes.



China's 2020 food crisis

Yet another problem for China - drought and locusts as well as flooding and corruption are leading to a food crisis:

The New Trump Campaign Manager

Red Eagle Politics' take on the new Trump campaign manager:

July 20, 2020

Japanese companies are leaving China.

Japan gets it - China is a predatory nation and they should not be rewarded.

Respect for Charles Barkley

Woke woke? Yes.  Thanks Brandon Tatum for the facts.

July 19, 2020

China in a panic?

Possibly:


Sunday verse


China's Mandate of Heaven

China has apparently lost Heaven's favor (known in ancient China as the Mandate of Heaven):

Sabotage in Iran?

Not just sabotage, a series of explosions:



Who could be behind this? Internal insurgents? Israel? The United States?

July 18, 2020

Just for fun


Realistic polling results (part 2 of 2)

This is a continuation of my look at the state by state polling (which I had intended to complete yesterday).  If you have not seen part 1, take a look here for more context.

There are eight more states to look into that RealClearPolitics considers swing states. 

New Hampshire: There are a total of eight polls that RCP has listed for New Hampshire and only 3 that they use in calculating their average. St. Anselm has Biden +8 with  a +/-3% Margin of Error listed for their poll.  I was able to take a look at what are referred to as the crosstabs and it would appear they polled an almost equal number of Democrats and Republicans, but a very low number of Independents.  Yet according to CNN as recently as February, Independents represent the largest voting block in the state and represent 42% of the voters.  In the St Anselm poll they represent 1.2% of those polled.  That's clearly not a good sample.  That said, the poll shows swing voters as regarding president Trump unfavorably by a 2 to 1 ration.  But that is across only 85 people polled.  That is not a sample that will provide statistical significance.  Most importantly, the poll is among registered voters, not likely voters.  That is the only poll done within the last 45 days. In April they ran a poll showing Biden +7. Again it was registered voters.  In February the University of New Hampshire did a poll of Likely voters that had Trump +2.  It was a smaller poll and had a margin of error of +/2%, so the president's lead was not outside the margin of error.  The other poll they ran that they included was all the way back in January by NBC/Marist.   It also showed Biden +8.  My Take: Among registered voters Biden seems to have had a decent edge.  However you cannot say that is currently the case as only one poll is recent enough, and among likely voters no claim whatsoever can be made.  My best guess is that neither candidate holds a lead above the margin of error.

North Carolina: This state is a must win for president Trump but he clearly trails in the polls. But there is maybe one single poll I would say is worth keeping in an average.  The most recent poll by  CNBC/Change Research has Biden +1.  It is among likely voters and is very recent, but they did not indicate a margin of error. Clearly whatever it was the Biden lead is within the margin of error.  In their previous poll from late June the sample size was similar and it was +/-3.9% (it showed Biden +7 only 2 weeks prior to them showing him +1.  There's a disconnect there).  It's also worth noting the poll was a Democrat sponsored poll.  They also did a poll back in May that was similarly close.  So did Civitas/Harper which showed Trump +3 (+/-4%).  My Take: This state is close, but despite the plethora of polls showing Biden ahead, the polls that are worth taking note are few and far between and none of those have been recent enough to count.

Georgia: Only two polls since May, both registered voters not likely voters.  One (Fox) has Biden +2 and the other has Trump +3. So no real polling insight.  The state is a toss-up.  My Take: Trump wins this state that has trended towards Democrats but it's definitely not there yet. Realistically it's way too early to tell from a polling perspective.  As we get closer to November, there will be, as in all swing states, more reliable polling from which to glean information.

Ohio: THE bellwether state, right?  So why only 4 polls in the RCP list, since January 2020?  And why only registered voters? RCP has the state as a tie with 1 poll showing a Trump lead and 2 showing a smaller Biden lead.  My Take:  Trump crushed Hillary Clinton in 2016.  He's likely well ahead of Biden but I cannot make that claim at this point, it's just a strong hunch.  Officially I'd say this state cannot be put in either column at this point based on polls.

Pennsylvania: RCP has it at Biden +8.  There is a lot of polling being done in the state and quite a few that have polled likely voters.  But there are only two that I think have shown dependable results in the recent 45 day window (based on criteria I have previously mentioned).  The Trafalgar Group poll and the Susquehanna poll.  Both have Biden at +5.  Trafalgar's was mid-June and  Susquehanna's was last week.  The other polls, some showing a Biden lead as high as 13%, can be discarded as not reliable.  My Take:  As of last week it is very possible the 2 polls were correct.  I have not seen the crosstabs to see the R/D/Independent weightings but they may be reasonable.  As of last week I would have put PA in the Biden column.  But I'm going to leave it open.  Here's why; his recent announcement of a $2 trillion clean energy plan leading to 100% clean energy means devastating job losses in the state.  He's proposing the same agenda that Obama and Clinton both followed.  He just cost himself a lot of votes in his 'childhood' state.  Polls in the coming weeks will start to reflect that speech.  This race will be a tight one by next month, barring some other dramatic change.  Luckily, it is likely going to be a state where we will be able to reasonably track polling sooner rather than later.

Texas: Look, if RCP is going to track Texas as a swing state, then why not Democratic states like Colorado.  That this is even in the mix is ridiculous.  It's so ridiculous in fact, that I did not even build into my calculator and option for Texas. If Republicans lose Texas, it's game over, forever.  So with respect to this state, I'm kinda riffing on my analysis.  

Nevertheless, the RCP average has Trump +0.2%.  There are only two polls I can see with any recency that are likely voters with a reasonable margins of error.  There's OAN/Gravis that has Trump +2 and the Dallas Morning News that is a much larger sample size that has Biden +5. Yes, that's concerning.  A brief review of the methodology of that poll appears to keep it as a viable poll.  The poll could be an outlier, but I'm going to have to factor it in to my thinking.  My Take: From a strictly dependable-poll-driven analysis I'd say right now the state is leaning towards Biden.  But as with Pennsylvania, Biden's recent energy speech probably just wiped out his chances of competing in Texas. I'm leaving this one in Trump's column because if this state goes Democrat, it's over. I'm going to have to fold up my blog and re-open it as BBQ recipe blog if that happens.

Virginia: RCP average of polls has this state at Biden +11.  The 2 latest polls  in the average were taken in Mar/Apr and in May.  The timing is useless.  While Biden is likely to win this state and outperform Hillary Clinton (barring a Virginia-specific gaffe, which is entirely possible), he is just not going to win the state by 11 points.  My Take:  There are exactly zero polls I would include in assessing the state.  Based on demographics trends, it's likely to remain a Democrat state, sadly.  Given any lack of real polling, I cannot claim otherwise.

Wisconsin: The RCP average is Biden +6.  I see only one poll worth factoring in - the Trafalgar Group poll from late June which has Trump +1.  The CNBC/Change Research polls for this state and others, which have Biden exclusively ahead (here and in other states) might  be accurate, but they do not publish margin of error data, which is a very odd curiousity, and therefore I cannot include in my calculus.  My Take: With one poll that I can factor, showing Trump ahead, I still have to put this state in the No Call column because 1 valid poll is not enough to hang your hat on (pardon the pun). 

All in all, these state by state polls do look all that different from the Hillary Clinton paradigm-shifting landslide of 2016.  Remember that?  Me neither. Here's my primarily poll-based map (granting Georgia, Texas and Arizona to Trump despite enough poll-based evidence to support it):

Click to enlarge.




In this scenario, if Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin he gets to 270. Barely. Is that feasible?  Absolutely. Is it likely?  Given polling I'd say it's only 50/50 right now.  While the polls are mostly all skewed and problematic, the president does have work to do.  I think COVID-19 has sapped his energy and enthusiasm.  But once he gets back to campaigning, something he seems to enjoy, I expect to see some poll shifts.  The debates will cause shifting too.  And the tendency of pollsters to become more rigorous in the closing days will see shifts too.  Honestly I still see president Trump with a potential electoral college ceiling as high as 335.  

My point is a Biden blow out is not going to happen, not that I or anyone else can fairly predict right now.  For now conservatives, do not get discouraged, just sit tight and wait.  Or better yet donate your money and time to making 2020 a Trump and Republican year.

Even Australians understand how bad Joe Biden would be

Joe Biden, climate zealot and China-surrender poster-boy.  This is what president Trump will need to hammer on during the election cycle - how terrible Biden's plan really is.  It will resonate in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and possibly even Michigan.  It's a good tactical message, even if the real argument needs to be about the economy and law and order- two issues Biden is terribly weak on.

If people in Australia recognize this, how hard can it be to get Americans to understand?

Saturday Learning Series -Philosophy #14 (Epistemic Responsibility)

Philosophy continues. Disregard the part where he claims that climate change deniers support a believe without any evidence.  That is clearly 2010-thinking in a 2016 video because there is plenty of evidence that man-made climate change is what is lacking proper evidence.  I've blogged about that many times before, as have many others - INCLUDING SCIENTISTS who have provided papers and evidence.  

But let's not get lost.  The point here is the notion of epistemic responsibility.

July 17, 2020

Friday Musical Interlude - Oh Well

Oh Well = very old Fleetwood Mac from 1969 when Peter Green was still in the band.

July 16, 2020

4.8 million jobs added in June

Friendly reminder - Economic recovery thanks in large part to president Trump.

Realistic polling results

Realistic polling results? Not so far.  I've been tracking the RealClearPolitics amalgamation of polls for some time now (here, here, here).   I have many problems with the simplistic presentation of an average of the polls to determine state by state winners from an electoral college perspective.

Click to enlarge RCP's take.

As of today, RealClearPolitics has the following polling average results:

Arizona - Biden +2.8%
Florida - Biden +6.4%
Iowa - Trump +1.5%
Michigan - Biden +7.7%
Minnesota -  Biden +16%
Nevada - Biden +4.0%
New Hampshire - Biden +4.3%
North Carolina - Biden +2.0%
Georgia - Trump +3.0%
Ohio - Tie
Pennsylvania - Biden +7.8%
Texas - Trump +0.2%
Virginia - Biden +11%
Wisconsin - Biden +6.0%

Does anyone honestly think that president Trump is ahead by just 0.2% in Texas?  Or that Biden is ahead in Arizona? The polls, and therefore the RealClearPolitics average of polls are incorrect.  The average that many pundits rely on is the wonkiest number ever.  For example the RCP average is lumping in registered voter polls with likely voter polls. That's mixing apples and oranges so to speak.

If the RealClearPolitics average is correct, right now Joe Biden is indeed looking at a landslide win over president Trump. He would have a 333-149 electoral college lead with Ohio and Texas as swing states going neither way but both potentially landing in Biden's column giving him as much as a 389-149 lead or as low as 333-205 electoral college win. That's an absurdity.

On a state by state basis here is what I am seeing:

Arizona: RCP has Trump ahead in only 3 of 23 polls since February 2019, or 2 if 17 polls in 2020.  In the past 45 days, 5 polls were conducted using the (typically) more dependable Likely Voters. Three of them were conducted by the same pollster (CNBC/Change Research) which is a Democrat funded poll. Their polls are typically using too small of a sample size and they do not publish their margin of error.  Take them out and there is a poll showing Trump +4 and a poll showing Biden +5.  My take: Based on the availability of quality polls, the state is undecided in my view. Realistically if Trump loses Arizona, he's lost the election but I personally don't see him losing the state.

Florida: RCP says Biden +6.8%?  No way.  Of the 6 polls since late May in the supposedly swing state, 4 of them are conducted by the same pollster as mentioned for Arizona.  Not surprisingly they have the same issue with their polls as in Arizona. The TIPP poll that had Biden +11% also has a margin of error problem in that they won't publish it, which means their party affiliation ratio in their poll may be skewed also.  I could not check it.  That leaves one poll that is across the board worth keeping - the Trafalgar Group (which is a Republican funded poll).   It has the state as a tie.  My take: The reality is that as usual, at this point, the state is still a toss up.

Iowa: The RCP average has Trump +1.5%. That's probably right but there are 0 polls within the last 45 days that are usable in the state.  The Des Moines Register poll which has Trump +1.  The problem is that it is the only recent poll and to rely on just one poll is not advisable.  My take: Iowa still has to be classified as a toss up just due to lack of data.

Michigan: In the last 45 days CNBC/Change Research polling has been busy stacking the average for Joe Biden (3 of 4 of the most recent state polls definitely skews the average).  There are 4 polls that I would consider; the lastest polls by each of CNBC/Change Research and EPIC-MRA, and one from NY Times/Sienna. The CNBC/Change Research has to drop because they do not publish a margin of error for their polls. The NY Times/Sienna poll is registered voters and has to drop.  That leaves Republican sponsored Trafalgar poll of 1101 likely voters that has Biden at +1% and the EPIC-MRA poll of 600 likely voters that has Biden (no joke) +16%. The latter poll has a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4%, vs. +/- 3% for Trafalgar.  If EPIC-MRA has Biden at it's most pro-Trump MOE it is still Biden +12%.  And if Trafalgar has it's poll at it's most pro-Biden it is Biden +4%.  Now is it Biden +12% or Biden +4%? My take: It's neither.  The state cannot be called at this point for Biden.  But here's the problem for president Trump, his support in the states does appear to have softened and requires some attention from his campaign.

Minnesota: Every RCP poll in the state is a registered voter poll.  My take: The polls for Minnesota are useless, and there is no data for the state. Because Trump did well against Clinton, I'm going to leave this as a toss-up until data appears.

Nevada:  The latest poll is from January.  My take: The polls for Nevada are useless, and there is no data for the state.  It's probably still a Biden state but there is no data to support the claim.

With just 6 states reviewed so far and I have all of them as toss ups whereas the RCP average has 5 of 6 of them strongly for Biden leaving only Iowa leaning for Trump.  From that Biden 333 electoral college votes I mentioned earlier (if Trump wins Texas and Ohio of the RCP toss-ups) I so far have removed 72 electoral college votes from Biden's column leaving him with 261 and Trump with just 199.  And there's a lot of other states to dissect, likely making both of those electoral college numbers decline for both candidates.

The big takeaway so far should be this - the RCP polls are not relevant yet.  Whether that is deliberate,  an inability to improving polling methods, or some other reason does not yet matter.  So far, nobody is winning.  I'm content to let Democrats and the media think otherwise but not teh American people.  They need to know this race is FAR from over.

Coming tomorrow - New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin and mt latest overall electoral college numbers.

Over 50 million jobs lost due to COVID

But the recovery is clearly underway:

July 15, 2020

China-Iran unholy alliance developing

Some China news, including flooding and more importantly a trade and military deal between China and Iran (starting at 17:17).

July 14, 2020

Roger Stone was pressured by Mueller team to lie about president Trump

Sadly, this is not unbelievable.  There are a lot of revelations in the recent Hannity interview but top among them are the pressure on Stone to lie and that Stone believes he could have proven that Russia never hacked the DNC.

July 13, 2020

...And News Tries To Cover It Up

Hero climate alarmist gets cancelled for recanting his hysteria

Just watch:



Here's more:

Don't be fooled: Trump isn't losing.

This weekend I revisited my polling review and I can report that president Trump is not losing.  He isn't winning either.  In fact, based on polling nothing definitive can be said about the race in swing states.  Nothing has changed since my previous review so I didn't bother to post anything about it.

But Trump is not losing.  Don't get disheartened by reports on polling - to this point they are almost completely uninformative and mostly useless.  Instead, check out this Tim Pool piece on the race.

July 12, 2020

COVID19 Deaths vs. New Cases in America

The number of COVID-19 related deaths in the United States is clearly declining, even as the number of cases rises. This of course explains the media's new obsession with the number of cases as it paints a worse picture for the president.

The two charts below show the decline in deaths and the rise in cases in a time series.


This is not to say that deaths might not surge once again, but there are a lot of factors in play here besides reopening states for business: seasonality, the increasing number of tests being conducted, people's behaviors, co-morbidity and how the cases are being counted, the demographics of the newly infected, BLM protesters not being admonished for not social distancing, and a number of other things.

To draw any conclusions about the path of the disease over the next few months is no better than speculation.  It is incumbent on the media to report both the above trends rather than sensationalizing the news cycle or using it for political purposes. 

A great #WalkAway account

I've occasionally shared #WalkAway stories in the past.  This one from a Muslim woman I don't think I shared but even if I did previously, it is worth revisiting.

Never again will I excuse Mitt Romney

I can't believe in 2012 I supported Mitt Romney.  I gave him the benefit of the doubt on Romneycare and more importantly president Obama was such a disaster, an over-ripe pineapple would have done a better job.  I'm glad this 

It turns out turncoat Mitt Romney is an over-ripe pineapple.  For the second time his personal bitterness towards president Trump has led him to an unwarranted criticism of president Trump.  First it was voting with the Democrats to try to impeach president Trump.  Now he is criticizing president Trump for commuting the sentence of Roger Stone. 



Where was he when president Obama pardoned, commuted, or rescinded the conviction of an unbelieveable 1927 sentences compared to president Trump's 25 pardons and 11 commutations? Each of president Trump's four predecessors commuted sentences of far more people than president Trump has.  Did Mitt Romney complain? Nope.  Not a word.

Politically irredeemable is how I would describe him.  Anyone in Utah who votes for this over-ripe pineapple again deserves the lackluster, feeble, effete representation they will get from him.

Sunday verse

July 10, 2020

WTF Joe (part 2 and that's just for today)?!?

Joe Biden steals ideas from president Trump.



And when he doesn't do that, he goes full socialist.

WTF Joe?!?

There are so many things wrong in this soundbite I can't believe he actually spoke this drivel out loud.


Let's see, there are lies about the Obama administration wanting to lower business taxes. Then there is the idea of raising business taxes to bring jobs back (that's the exact opposite of what is needed). Then there's the fact that Amazon paid $162 million in taxes in 2019 (a small amount granted but I'm sure president Trump is already all over that since he's no fan of Jeff Bezos) and Biden's lie that the days of them paying no taxes being over if he becomes president - too late Joe. Then there's putting an end to shareholder capitalism. That is so beyond stupid that I am starting to think Joe does not really want to be president.

Black Lives Matter (BLM) is a Marxist organization

I had been thinking about doing a post explaining how Black Lives Matter is a Marxist organization.  Thank you Prager U for saving me the work and doing a great job at this.  This needs to be shared, not enough people realize this.

Friday Musical Interlude - where that Jimi Hendrix song came from

Jimi Hendrix song Hey Joe was not an original song, it was a song derived from a song that was derived from another song. Tough to follow, right?  Here's a quick explanation and the songs for you to hear for yourself.

Originally some time in the late 1950's, Neila Miller wrote a song called Baby, Please Don't Go To Town. She released it in 1962.


At the time, singer-songwriter Billy Roberts, who would later copyright "Hey Joe," was her boyfriend. The melody wasn’t exactly the same as "Hey Joe", it’s close enough to indicate that it’s was the source for Roberts’ version which he copyrighted in 1962:


That of course led to this famous version recorded by Jimi Hendrix in 1966:

July 9, 2020

Terry Crews schools Don Lemon, gets cut off

Bravo Terry Crews for being very sensible about things, as well as articulate spokesman for common sense. Don Lemon however, could not take it and had to constantly interrupt.  That's par for the course for Lemon, as well as CNN.  That's they're part of the control mechanism Terry Crews talks about, even if they don't realize it.

As for Lemon, he's just rude, opinionated and uninformed.  I don't expect any better of him.  And just so you don't think its a racist thing, I feel the same way about Brian Stelter, Chris Cuomo, Jim Acosta and the organization as a whole.

July 8, 2020

An awakening

In part at least...



This is useful information on waking up those who are woke from their self-delusion

President Trump formally withdrawals from W.H.O.

President Trump has formally announced the U.S. is withdrawing from the World Health  Organization.

July 6, 2020

Which elevates humanity? You tell me.

Compare and contrast the two efforts below.

This is an example of people working together to build something.  It's hard, there's precision needed, teamwork needed, knowledge needed, money needed, planning needed.  In the end, something incredible and purposeful is the result:



Now this is an example of people "working together" to destroy. It's ugly, it makes things worse, and it's not the product of knowledge, precision or planning. It's the product of uninformed rage:



The choice is obvious.  It's not about conformity vs. non-conformity. It's not about capitalism vs. socialism or Marxism.  It's about being a better human being.  It's about doing something to advance society.  How does destruction advance anything?  It does not.  These people are not advocates for change, they are advocates for anarchy.

Here's the thing with ANTIFA and Black Lives Matter - if your effort to "improve society" relies on destruction, you are probably on the wrong side of history.  And you are a horrible human being too  (I was going to say "horrible human being to boot" but some uneducated snowflake would probably be triggered by that because they don't know 'to boot' is an expression meaning 'also').

You can't handle the truth! (if you have a closed mind)

July 5, 2020

Driver who hit BLM protester turned out to be a black guy

Have you heard about this? Of course not because they can no longer blame far right extremists.

President Trump stands up for America

It's about time somebody did.


What happens when globalists and greedy idiots unite?

In 1997 Hong Kong was returned from British control to China, granting the communist nation a powerful trading opportunity.  The in 2001 China was granted normalized trading relations with the United States (in fact, grotesquely granted Most Favored Nation status) and also entered the World Trade Organization. What happens when Communist China petitions a greedy western cabal of globalists looking for cheap labor and a massive potential market for their products?  Massive problems.
In the spring of 2000, China was trying to become a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The U.S. House of Representatives had just approved normalizing trade relations with China. The vote was effectively a U.S. endorsement of China’s accession, and President Bill Clinton, a major proponent of China’s bid, voiced his economic and strategic hopes for the U.S.-China relationship....

China did not conform to democracy in the way the United States had hoped. In fact, its vast economic gains have only legitimized the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which President Xi Jinping believes is central to maintaining economic stability and enabling China to dominate technology-driven industries.

China’s tight government controls extend to the internet, which was supposed to be a gateway to reform and innovation. China regulates internet use, limiting access to commerce and social media. China has blocked political organizing by threatening—and sometimes jailing—those who post critical comments online. The Chinese government also uses the internet to identify and track dissidents.
China's internal issues are not the worst of the outcome though.  China has become an expansionist nation, economically digging its tentacles into every nation it can.  And every other economy has suffered economically, as this graphic shows:



There are countless examples of why the admission of China into the WTO and America's good graces for trade were really really bad.  I encourage you to read the examples below.





Countries have become dependent on Chinese production for most everything.  Even leftist publications like The Atlantic can recognize that.  During the Obama administration in the U.S., China's economic and military muscle flex truly catapulted  into high gear.  It's been left unchecked for far too long until president Trump finally decided to do something about it, and other countries have started to follow suit.  While it has been left far too long to allow this predatory and evil regime to run amok, hopefully it is not to late to put the communist genie back in the bottle.


This may be it for my NFL fandom

I've continued to watch the NFL off and on since the Colin Kaepernick foolishness, and through the kneeling during the national anthem and all the wokeness because football is a great game to watch. But now I find myself getting close to the point of no longer being able to support the league with my viewership.  Why?  These two steps too far:



With that, I'll be done. If the NFL insists on driving away many of it's remaining loyal fans in an attempt to woo woke leftists who will never watch it anyway, I'm out. If the NFL insists on committing it's slow roll suicide, so be it. I'd have switched to NASCAR as an option but well, you know - it's probably too late for them now too. I guess I'll have to go back to NHL hockey where it's still mostly about the game.

Sunday verse


July 2, 2020

The timing of her arrest is suspicious

It's understandable that Jeffrey Epstein's confidant Ghislaine Maxwell has been arrested.  She's been implicated in what Jefferey Epstein was doing. But why now, so close to an election?    Is it another attempt to link president Trump to something?  Is it the swamp slowly being drained?  The timing is curious, suspicious even.

Trump recovery vs Obama recovery

The latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics so far show a stark contrast between the Obama Great Recession recovery and the Trump COVID-19 shutdown recovery.


The COVID-19 impact was much more severe than the Great Recession (pictured in grey).  But what is truly stark is the 2 months of drop off in the unemployment rate after the 2020 peak from 14.7 % in April, to 13.3% in May to 11.1%. 2.5 million jobs were added in May despite an expectation of 9 to 10 million more job losses.  And in June 4.8 million jobs were added.

May the president knows what he is doing when it comes to the economy. I mean really, really knows.  Compare that to the anemic recovery that Obama put the country through from 2010 through 2016.  It was abysmal and no one should be supporting his know-nothing VP for president because he has no clue of how to handle an economy.  The contrast is stunning. 

China's Gold Problem

China recently discovered that some of their gold backed securities were backed by fake gold.  And then there's a new swine flu bubbling up in China in addition to intensifying lock-downs in Beijing over the COVID virus. There's also the border fight flare up with India. That's all not to even mention the new Chinese laws announced to govern crackdown on Hong Kong and it's effect of causing many nations to react to the laws by becoming harder on China. And there's also massive flooding and the potential that the Three Gorges Dam might fail due to shoddy construction. As bad as things are in the U.S., China is really, really messed up.

If you have not heard about the gold situation, these two videos explain it well.


We need more of this and less of that

Via Tim Pool's YouTube channel:
In last week's fired-up conversation, Tim got a good rant in, but Adam did, too, and Adam's monologue went viral on Facebook, where the video eventually became unavailable. Adam goes into more detail about his journey from passive, disengaged default liberal to alert, optimistic Trump voter.
We need more liberals talking about common sense and less of the Facebook, Big Tech censorship of conservative or even just no-longer-liberal opinion:



July 1, 2020

It's Canada Day

Canada's version of July 4th is July 1st - Canada Day.  Many fireworks displays have been cancelled due to COVID but that won't stop the barbecuing.


June 30, 2020

John Roberts - Disappointment

John Roberts was supposed to be a big win for conservatives when he became not only a Supreme Court Justice but the Chief Justice.  But since being an enabler for Obamacare he has as often as not sided with the liberal justices on the Supreme Court and in a not insignificant way. Dan McLaughlin blames it on lack of courage:
The chief is the opposite of Anthony Kennedy, whose sin was the hubris to maximize the power of the federal courts and his own votes in nearly every case. Roberts remains what he was before his appointment, a conventional conservative legal theorist who believes in many of the doctrines and judicial philosophies one would hear at any Federalist Society gathering.

But courage is lacking. Over and over again, Roberts has failed to follow through on the rule of law. His defenders point to his big-picture vision of judicial modesty and incrementalism: that conservatives should avoid big, wrenching moves, and build small victories in doctrine today that will accumulate to larger ones tomorrow. But in law, as in politics, tomorrow never comes without courage today.
Maybe. To be honest I no longer care to figure out what his motivation is. What matters are the results and his have been just short of abysmal. He's a huge disappointment. Go figure, another Bush appointee who turned out to be a squishy conservative, or pro-establishment. That's a typical feature of a Bush appointee (and I mean any Bush).  Yes, there are exceptions but that's the problem - they're exceptions.

June 27, 2020

June 26, 2020

Joe Biden has killed more Americans

Back in the primaries, Joe Biden claimed 150 million American were killed by guns.  Yesterday he said 120 million Americans have been killed by COVID-19.  That's 270 million dead Americans, in a country with a population in the 310 million range that's 87% of the American population killed by those two causes.

COVID:



Guns:



This is the man Democrats want to lead the country?  This is the man the media is pushing?  C'mon Man!

I'm pretty sure he knows those numbers are not correct.  They were probably just slip ups.  But even that is concerning because he''s made the same basic math mistake more than once.  That means either:

(1)  he's deliberately lying to win more votes from the uninformed,
(2)  he's really unaware of the facts,
(3)  he's not all there,
(4)  he's a histrionic exaggerator (one of the things Democrats claim to hate about Trump), or
(5)  he's just prone to making a lot of gaffes

In any of those scenarios is that someone you want with their finger on the nuclear trigger of the most powerful military in the history of the world?  The dangerous nature of him being commander in chief genuinely scares me.


Friday Musical Interlude (COVID-19 Edition) - Sick and Tired

Fats Domino from 1958.


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