December 31, 2020

Happy New Year

 Wishing you a Happy and Healthy New Year. Sadly, I'm not optimistic that 2021 will be a good year.

December 30, 2020

Repealing 230 and Mitch McConnell

 Tim Pool discuss the war on Section 230 and the politics around it.


Project Veritas exposes CNN's Democrat-National-Committee-level bias via a live dial-in just before the election.

Pennsylvania had more votes than registered voters

This election will probably never be sorted out properly. Pennsylvania voting was a train wreck.  They are not alone in that regard. It's really difficult to see a path where Biden actually won, given all of the fraud that seems to have happened.  It's also hard unfortunately, to see how this works out for president Trump and his supporters.

Year in review -- biggest media fails

I've never really been big on year in reviews, or at least creating them. But Mark Dice does a great summary of media fails of the year:

Canadian election methodological superiority

I'm Canadian. When I go vote, I get a voter registration card in the mail.  It instructs me to bring photo ID. I cast a paper ballot and my name gets crossed off the registered voter list for my riding (district).  Voting opens roughly a week ahead of time on certain days for those unable to vote on election day. In that case the process is still the same as election day voting. As a voting system, it's archaic and it works.  If you take that instead of glorifying our inferior health care system, you'd be getting somewhere America.  Maybe add in observers from both parties at all polling locations, and a dispute mechanism, you'd be fine.  Right now what you have in America is a mess.

Of course that's not true everywhere, many states have their act together. A decentralized system of government and states' rights and all that are a good thing.  But it also enables bad actors to distort things in places where it can make a difference.  I give you the election of 2020 as an example.

If it is Constitutionally feasible, I'd recommend creating a federal law that while allowing states to manage the specifics of their electoral processes, requires a minimum standard be reached for the state's electoral votes to be included in federal elections.

Just a thought.

These are the gangsters people like Biden and Trudeau want to be partners

China in Focus delivers news on China without the gangster communist propaganda perspective that Western leaders like Biden and Trudeau swallow whole:

Anyone who deals with this Chinese government is a knowing sellout. At the level of presidents and prime ministers you can't not know these things.  And if you know and are willing to make deals with them, you are a criminal and a traitor to your country.

Is America a country of morons?

No. No it's not. Just it's left wing and many of it's leaders:

And the fake-president-elect is not immune to the "we can do anything we want" virus:

This type of leadership makes America unsustainable. Either that or the "leadership" itself must become unsustainable.

December 29, 2020

Working to survive is immoral?

Just like the message in my previous post, this lockdown is becoming pointless.  Let me appeal to the anti-humanity left - if people are going to die off, conservative, Trump-supporting people, because they are being dumb in light of the COVID pandemic, why not let them?  If you are afraid about dying, stay home yourself.

Common folk become the resistance

Good for this man for standing up to oppression. This will only get worse if people don't speak up.  This man did it the right way. He was outspoken, but non-violent. let's hope that approach prevails.

December 28, 2020

Weekend at Biden's

 An original art project by me.

Trump DC protest

This protest won't accomplish much, but in one important respect, it does matter.  If there is no pushback now, it will never happen.

2020 -- The year in tech censorship review

 Mark Dice sums it up nicely:

7th Circuit Court dismissed Trump Wisconsin lawsuit and...

 ...a few questions remain and some new ones get added.  Via Viva Frei:

December 27, 2020

December 24, 2020

Merry Christmas

 In my own journey towards faith and spirituality, I often fall short. There is no doubt that societal supports have weakened in that regard, whereas it instead it could be helpful for people in so many ways.  I did a Google image search this morning for both Merry Christmas and Christmas.  Plenty of search results but not a single image of Jesus, or his birth for whom the holiday is observed - and named after.  That's as disappointing as it is unsurprising. 

Nevertheless, that is a discussion for another day.  Christmas is a day for faith and love and whether Google refuses to acknowledge the meaning behind Christmas, we still can.  Thankfully.

Merry Christmas.

December 23, 2020

Democrats = traitors

 In addition to being cheaters, Democrats are traitors.  Jail time required:

Democrats = Cheaters

 Jail time required:

December 21, 2020

Bill Whittle - American Cowards

I have an idea for an interesting series of original posts, which will come in 2021.  The video below from Bill Whittle touches on one of the topics I'll be discussing.

December 20, 2020

December 19, 2020

December 18, 2020

Friday Musical Interlude - Bad To The Bone

A message to conservatives for the next four years and beyond, no matter what happens.  You've got to be prepared to play hard ball from now on.

December 16, 2020

Democrats and media seem to want China to defeat America

 Ugh.  Explain why.  Please. Media?  Doomocrats? Somebody help out those of us with common sense.

And for the love of God, somebody needs to educate Eric Swalwell on being an American.

December 13, 2020

December 12, 2020

December 10, 2020

Capitalism works

There's a difference between capitalism and socialism obviously.  But there's also a difference between socialism and a welfare state.  Many European economies that are considered socialist are free market economies that happen to have very large welfare components or in some cases, government ownership in specific industries only.  Denmark and Sweden are prime examples of this. 

Given that definition, in the video below, out of the top 10 richest countries in the world, 9 are capitalist, with only 1 communist.  Of the top 20, there are 5 mixed economies, 1 communist and 14 are capitalist (and arguably 16).  And of the top 30 economies, there are 8 mixed economies, 1 socialist/mixed and 1 communist.  That means 20 of the top 30 economies are capitalist with 2 of the top 20 moving more and more from mixed towards capitalist. 

The point - capitalism creates wealth.  Wealth creates improved quality of life for everyone, not just the rich.  Would you rather be a poor person in America, with a welfare net or in Bangladesh or North Korea where starvation is a distinct possibility?  Capitalism is not evil, it's a good thing that has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the last century as it has been adapted in new countries. It's not perfect, but it's a close as humanity has come to a fair and free economic system.  Where it fails is where it has been corrupted and/or abused.

December 9, 2020

December 8, 2020

The legal battle continues

 We are in uncharted territory here:

December 6, 2020

December 5, 2020

Saturday Learning Series - The call to Abraham (part 4)

  Jordon Peterson's lecture series continued from last week.

It ain't over yet

 Georgia electoral deceit is starting to fall apart.  Is this just the first domino to fall?

Meme - Socialism is slavery


Stop trying to explain things in any meaningful way.  Democrats never explain their positions. They just evoke emotional responses. Socialism is slavery. Let people see that and just work to figure it out for themselves.

Or maybe just add a little context.  The larger the monopoly the more danger it poses to people. No organization is larger than government:
“The argument for liberty is not an argument against organization, which is one of the most powerful tools human reason can employ, but an argument against all exclusive, privileged, monopolistic organization, against the use of coercion to prevent others from doing better.”
            ― Friedrich August von Hayek, The Constitution of Liberty

December 4, 2020

Georgia election cheating on video

Why is this not bigger news? Because the mainstream media does not want you to see this stuff. You know that already.  The only thing you can do, is tell people.

December 3, 2020

A public service message

 Via Breitbart, from president Trump:

December 1, 2020

Statistics support the idea of voting anomolies

 Here's some graphical views to consider, via Tim Pool:

These examples sure support the case for the existence of voter fraud in certain areas, and on a rather massive scale.

Steven Crowder on Democrats and media flip flop on voter fraud

Steven Crowder points out the last four years Democrats were really concerned about voting machine vulnerability and election stealing.  Not now.

November 30, 2020

FBI investigating election fraud & how to red pill someone

In the middle of this video, Tim Pool offers some great advice to conservatives, "open the door".  You can refer a liberal to a video like his or a story about voter fraud, where the source identifies the issue in a reasonable manner.  Let them walk through the door.

In any case, the evidence is there.  Let them Red Pill themselves.

If you're not sure you are going to win, you still fight

It's hard to understand Republicans and conservative pundits who think it's pointless to fight the election fraud and believe we should just succumb to the socialist tide.  If now is not the time to fight back against the cheating, there's no point in ever fighting back. Give in and get what you deserve surrender-publicans.  There's fight left in us and there's reason why the fight is not lost:

No one is ever sure they are going to win, unless they are fools (Hillary).  The New York Yankees in their most dominant years, never KNEW they were going to win.  They believed they did, but they had to go out and play the game to prove it.

This is the tenth inning for the 2020 election.  You don't forfeit now.  You play out the game.  You surrender only if you never wanted to play in the first place. Yes Trump's chances now put him as the underdog, but underdogs do win.

The real concern here is the clock.  Do these legal challenges get anywhere in time?  That's the real challenge for the president.

November 29, 2020

November 26, 2020

Happy Thanksgiving

 I wish all of my American readers a Happy Thanksgiving.

November 25, 2020

Wayne County election results are dubious at best

Michigan election management is crap. That's a harsh word, but this is a real, big problem.  How does this not just toss out the entire county's votes?  How does this possibly get certified instead?  This makes zero sense.

November 24, 2020

One America News suspended from YouTube Partner Program

 One America News  (OAN) as an alternative to Fox News The death throws of free speech continue. And you continue to let this happen by doing nothing.

Bizarro World redux. Is this 2001?

 This is just weird:

Bizarro world - MSM defends Fox.

I'm drained these days, and will return to contributing to the discussion more intensely in the coming weeks.  In the meantime, Bizarro world indeed. 

November 21, 2020

Saturday Learning Series - The Psychological Significance of the Biblical stories (pt 2)

 Jordan Peterson talks about the importance of the Bible stories in this 17 part series.

Warning:  this is an intense intellectual lecture that requires your time and attention.  It's worth it though.

November 20, 2020

Keep Hope Alive, 2020 edition

 It's possible that Trump won in a blowout.  We're going to need to see the proof, very soon.

November 18, 2020

This is informative regarding the state of the election

 Via OAN (one of my replacements for Fox News and Fox Business):

Just a thought on election fraud in Pennsylvania

Remember that time in 2020 when they stopped the electoral vote count in Pennsylvania for the evening, only to resume in the morning?  Do you think it might have been because they underestimated how many votes they would have to manufacture to get Biden ahead of Trump and they needed time to find more ballots?  Remember at that point Trump was still ahead by about 400,000 votes.

Maybe they ran out of fake ballots for Biden.  Just spit-balling ideas.

The scary election outcome scenario

What if president Trump proves that there were too many illegal activities in Pennsylvania and Michigan?  And what if they cannot determine the level of malfeasance perpetrated by the Democrats? And what if as a result the states' electoral college votes end up discounted as a result?  In other words, they do not get to have their votes counted for president?

Whether president Trump is able to make the same case for Georgia, Wisconsin and Arizona or not doesn't matter because as those two case come down, perhaps Democrats would want to make the case themselves in those other states.  All the states that were going for Trump but mysteriously turned away from his lead in the last moments.  All of those states and not Nevada.  Why would the Democrats do that after those first two court cases set a precedent for what to do in a state that has been cheated but cannot be easily corrected? Because if the states do not count towards the electoral college then this is the result:

Biden still wins 233-232.  Wow.  This is the only way that scenario can be averted - the same discounting would have be applied to Nevada.  Of course discounting the electoral college votes of the states is very disenfranchising and likely is not an option.  But the Democrats have been smart enough to ensure that votes cannot be separated by validity (i.e. votes that came in late or had no post mark, or arrived in a truck in the dead of night).  The same notion of disenfranchising voters is true if it is applied to individual counties rather than the entire state. As a result what other options exist besides "all or none" for those states? You can't exclude some counties in a state and not others.  You have to exclude the whole state. But excluding them opens a real can of worms.
What happens to the down ballot results in those states? Are they also nullified and would require special elections to resolve?

No matter who wins in this scenario the other side will consider the winner an invalid winner.  Democrats always do and Republicans this time, for the most part think that if Biden wins, it will be because of the cheating.

A multi-state revote is implausible.

That's just for starters.  The situation could become an inextricable mess. That's why it's a worst case scenario.

November 17, 2020

Dearth of real news, dearth of posts

 I have to admit I've been focused on the presidential election since August.  But I have not said much since election night.  A lot of podcasts, many alternative news outlets and and many blogs have pointed out that the election results have not been certified, and there is no president-elect.

Conversely the mainstream media (including former stalwart of reasonableness Fox News) have declared the election over.  They've declared Biden the winner. Incorrectly to this point.  There is no winner officially declared.

But I have said little.  That's because there is not much that matters until these court cases in the swing states get resolved.  I'm sure there was a lot of cheating going on - ballot harvesting, voter coaching, secret tallying in the middle of the night to name a few instances. But I have only re-shared the works of others.  The reason is the outcome of the lawsuits is the next thing that matters. The decisions that come out of those will dictate whether the president has a chance to overturn some of the suspect results.  They will also likely indicate the plausibility of states' results changing.

The courts are what matters. So for now, I'm waiting, because anything I say now, much like CNN, does not matter to the outcome.

November 16, 2020

Why is this not front page news everywhere?

Biden underperformed Hillary Clinton in every city except for 4 in key swing states.  Yet he got 13 million more votes than she did in 2016? That's a remarkable and implausible coincidence and the math just doesn't make sense.

November 15, 2020

Best idea ever

 Trump family - please buy CNN.

Sunday verse


November 13, 2020

Another Trump win - a COVID-19 vaccine

You missed it in your zeal to vote for unqualified Joe Biden America.  President Trump sped up the process and it produced a vaccine for COVID-19.  But too many of you, living and dead, voted for the other guy.


Subversive government officials should be tried for treason

 I was out of commission today due to some day-patient surgery. I came back to this:


That's treason. America should be ashamed of itself for allowing this to happen.

November 12, 2020

Voter fraud was real

 Tucker Carlson points out the truth:

The other networks don't care if they are lying - they have done it for years and this is no different.

This is what you voted, or rather cheated, to have happen Dems

A nationwide lockdown due to COVID, which will destroy the economy.  Join the call for the legal challenges to save your country from destruction.

The myopic worldview of Democrats is so sad, it's become funny.

For the record, Joe Biden has not yet won the election. And I do not share Tim Pool's pessimism on the election chances of a Trump re-election. It's not a slam-dunk but it's not a longshot either. But if the truth gets out about what's going on, minds will be changed. 

November 9, 2020

Twitter fails free speech in Canada

Truth does not die in the dark, it's murdered. I'm in Canada and I went on Twitter for the first time in probably two years because it is a cesspool. I noticed the #DefundCBC was trending.  CBC, for my American readers is PBS on steroids - a primarily government funded media network that is larger than the private networks in the country.  It's notoriously pro-Leftist.

So I decided to search the hashtag to see what it was about.  I don't follow Canadian politics closely day-to-day because it's pretty much irrelevant thanks to a century of predominantly liberal governments that have made us that way. In any case, EVERY SINGLE TWEET that showed up from my search was an ad hominem attack from people calling those who would like to defund the CBC  various names.  Imperialists, conservative goons, unenlightened.  You get the picture.

But I didn't.  There was not a single tweet I could find from someone who wanted to defund the CBC or an explanation of what the trending hashtag was all about.

Thanks Twitter. You've failed free speech once again, and I'm confident it was deliberate.

Joe Biden got fewer votes than Hillary or Obama in every state except MI, PA, GA, WI

The very states that the election is turning on see a Biden surge?  One of which he explicitly stated he wanted to take away their energy industry. That's some amazing coincidence, isn't it?  

This video sort of buries that lead, but it's still a good watch.  What is striking is how little credence has been given to the concerns about transparency by the Left.  It's purposeful, it's hypocritical and it's anti-democratic.

The era of #MistakeJoe is not yet upon us

If all the votes that have been counted were legitimate, then President Trump increased his vote tally by at least 8 million votes over 2016.  It represents an increase of 12.8% support.  That's probably in part due to a population increase, but also due to an impressive growth of support.

Joe Biden improved over Hillary Clinton by 9.7 million votes, again with the caveats of population growth and legitimate votes being counted, that appears to mean that he is 14.7% more popular now than Hillary Clinton was in November 2016.  Okay, I'll buy that he's more popular than she was, mostly because the media did their best to hide all his flaws. But 14.7% more popular?  His campaign was a masquerade of a campaign so that he could claim a victory.  What did he do to invite such a high level of support besides not be Trump?  Nothing. He lied, he flip-flopped, he insulted voters - TO THEIR FACES.

You can be easily forgiven for thinking that maybe, just maybe, it was cheating that put him over the top.

Even if he loses his legal challenges, and Mistake Joe becomes president, Trump will still end up being the most consequential president as a force for good since Ronald Reagan.  Both men accomplished achievements far beyond their tenure, perhaps Trump even more so, domestically. Sadly, should he lose, I don't believe we'll see Trump run in 2024. He'll be older, and less energized to go through the hell he had to put up with to achieve what he did.  Maybe one of his children can take up the America-first mantle.

This is not to say that president Trump should concede, or that I have given up up. It's in the president's character to fight.  It's what made him a success.  He should continue to do so. because there is a chance this gets resolved in his favor. But if he loses, America, you  have squandered a golden opportunity and those do not come around with every president.

Consider historic lows in unemployment, a lightning speed recovery to COVID-19, tax relief for regular Americans, a COVID-19 vaccine with 90% efficacy (just as president Trump promised), historic peace deals in the Middle East, China being faced down rather than beholden to by a president, immigration being properly addressed, a better judiciary to name a few top achievements. The president appears to have been a blessing from God, and Americans who voted for #MistakeJoe will come to regret their decision. If #MistakeJoe wins, I'd say America you are about to get what you deserve, but I won't because there are many people who won't deserve it and they are probably the ones who will suffer the most.

Arizona should not have been called

Fox was not stupid, they were complicit. That's obviously an opinion, but I think it's based on actual events as they occurred. That's a discussion for another day. But let's take a look at why Arizona may still end up in Trump's column.

Trump was right, a cure was just around the corner

COVID-19 is toast. And it gets announced just after the election, by an industry not happy that the president was trying to bring down drug costs.

Of course, Pzifer announced less than a week after the election that its COVID-19 vaccine is 90% effective in the latest study.
Pfizer also said it would ask to put the vaccine on the market “if pending data indicate the vaccine is safe.”
You all knew this would happen.
Pfizer claimed the vaccine “demonstrated evidence of efficacy against COVID-19” on Sunday, November 8, 2020.
So the company only found out the evidence yesterday? Weird.

It's not really weird, it's obvious. 

What if you have witnessed voting fraud?

 12 seconds of important information.

November 8, 2020

November 7, 2020

Biden uh, wins? Maybe not.

Many of the media outlets have called it for Biden.  Tim Pool comments, and I hope he's right.  I've been telling my friends that what happens in the courts will ultimately decide this election.  But I'm finding myself suffering from Democrat-cheating-fatigue.  I hope that's a temporary feeling.  The Democrats have clearly cheated.  I'm not sure if they did it enough to win it.  Or more accurately, that there is enough proof to prove it.  But I don't care if he has to win it through the courts, if he is able to win it.  I don't care if Democrats have hissy fits after that.  I don't know if this will succeed, but at least the president is trying to not roll over and play dead, like Democrats expect of Republicans.

November 6, 2020

Tim Pool nails it

 This is becoming a nightmare.  Please read this.

Hey Georgia, when you run out of ballots, start counting napkins

...and empty cereal boxes.  Oh, and change your state motto to "Cheat To Win".  I thought Georgia was a state where people gave a crap. Turns out it only takes enough of them to crap on democracy to wipe out a country.  Good for you.

Pennsylvania you're not exempt either.  Bill Burr was 100% as right about Philadelphia.

Michigan, well we didn't really expect anything out of you anyway. You never fail to disappoint until you do it so much it becomes the expectation.

Wisconsin, now that's a real disappointment.  I'm not gonna lie, I had hopes for you.

Arizona makes no sense anymore and Nevada, I hope Las Vegas gets swallowed up by the desert.  Been there once, recently in fact, had a great time.  Guess what - never going back again. Enjoy the Raiders until they move back to Oakland and you are left with a giant empty stadium.

Okay, that felt good.  Back to normal.

Bill Whittle nails it

I just posted this and it's a plea to Americans to stand up to the fraud.  Less than 10 minutes later, I watched this Bill Whittle video.  Watch this video and in particular the Bill Whittle segment. He's right.

Even if Trump wins in court and is unable to do anything for four years, that is better than a Biden illegitimate victory with him being completely stalled out by a Republican senate.  That's because of the fraud that would grant him that victory.

America, this is your Agent Smith moment

 "What good is a phone call if you are unable to speak?"

Inch by inch they are taking away the truth.  Inch by inch they are papering over what they are doing. Quite literally in fact, and of course they are papering over the papering over too.  What they are really papering over is any voice of dissent, even if that voice might actually be in the majority.  It doesn't matter. You have no voice. I have no voice. They are taking it away from us. 

Shut up and take it.

Or... Or... Or push back.  This is no longer about just your life as it is, it's about the future.  They are making the illegitimate look legitimate and blaming you for questioning it. America is the one place left on earth where dissent, real dissent is still possible.  Many places will argue they still have free speech.  I live in Canada for example, and technically we do have free speech.  But really, if you don't agree with the liberal mob-media-government octopus, you'll be shamed. Banned. Banished.

Do you see that in America? Or are you so numbed to it that you are starting not to notice. You still have free speech until you do not use it. Some people can show themselves with a severed head of the president,  a second time, and feel empowered doing so.  You however, cannot question the strange things that appear to be happening and wonder aloud if perhaps there's cheating. You cannot question fraud that is happening right in front of you.

Why?  Because you choose not to stand up to it.  You say you do.  But your vote, especially just your federal vote is no longer enough.  You cannot count on others to fight for your liberty as if this were World War II. Calling a radio station to air your grievances is no longer enough. This is the hill you have to stand on and fight.  There is no next hill.  You've been pushed so far back there is no fallback position anymore.

That's easy for me to say as a Canadian who lives in a country with even more progressivism, socialism and modern liberalism than you have, and not do anything here.  I get the duplicitous  nature of my call to defend the truth and liberty.  It's easy to do from afar. I've blogged about American politics and conservatism since 2008 now.  If I could be there fighting alongside you to ensure electoral integrity, judicial restraint, fiscal conservatism, traditional American values and other things uniquely American I would.  You have a special place in the world you perhaps do not fully appreciate, or maybe take for granted.

Do not waste what you have been given. I believe I would give up an arm or a leg to be an American. Not happily, but I would do it.  That's what your country is worth.  

Or at least it was worth it.  Now I am not so sure.  Because even though nearly 70 million people voted for a rollback on the cesspool (it's worse than a swamp) that the halls of power in America have become, it appears even more voted to turn away from it, to turn away from reason, to turn away from a return to American greatness (led by an admittedly coarse man, but one with good intentions nevertheless). American's sheen has begun to fade. The shining city on a  hill is turning grimy and dark. It's as if Sauron himself had laid claim to Gondor.  The darkness is growing and spreading; but slowly, so that you are not meant to notice.

You can let it, or you can get off your ass and do something about it.  March, protest, become that which you loath because it would seem that the time has come that you can only fight fire with fire.  Match rhetoric with rhetoric, protest with counter-protest, cheating with verifiable and actionable proof of cheating.  There are too many stories of changed votes to ignore.  Check your own.  Validate your county's voter roll and compare it to the number of ballots cast. Or better yet, check on Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. Divide up the work.

And should you lose the battle, do not yield the hill you stand upon. Educate yourself on how to educate your neighbors and then go do it.  Organize them and lead them into political conflict.  It is not glorious.  It is not pretty work. But it needs to be done for a noble purpose, and it is a nobler purpose than your lowered taxes.  It is about the foundational concepts that make America unique and necessary.  If this light goes out, there is not only a nation and future generations who will reflect on you with disgust, it's an entire world where the light of hope gets extinguished. You fail not only yourself or your president, you fail humanity.

November 4, 2020

Errors and oddities

 Arizona errors, Michigan oddities...

Libertarians shoot themselves in the foot

I know I just said it's not time to Wednesday morning quarterback in my previous post, but here's an FYI. If Jo Jorgensen had not run in Nevada, and most of her 11,000+ votes so far ended up going to president Trump, he would be winning that state. If you are a Nevada libertarian, you may have handed your antithesis candidate - the socialist-leaning corruptocrat Biden, the presidency.  So enjoy that knowledge.

It's not time to Wednesday morning quarterback

I'm shocked this morning. I'm not shocked not by the results (I was sort of expecting a tight Trump win) but by the weird shenanigans that happened last night and are probably continuing to occur this morning. Philadelphia Pennsylvania and Georgia stopped counting last night as one example. But here are some quick observations:

(1) With a roughly 700,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania and about 1.4 million votes outstanding, I cannot see any path for Biden to win. In order to make up that gap he would need to win 1 million and 50,000 of those votes to Trumps 350,000. That's a 75% ratio.

(2) Fox called Arizona very prematurely.  No one else has called the state.  Most of the outstanding votes are from election day voting, which clearly favors Trump.

(3) North Carolina with 95% of votes reported is not called for Trump. He has a 77,000 vote lead. It will likely shrink but Trump should still win. If Fox was willing to call Arizona already, why not?

(4) Trump is leading still in Michigan, narrowly and trailing in Wisconsin, narrowly. Also, surprisingly, he's trailing Nevada only narrowly.

(5) Trump is leading Georgia 104,000 with 92% of the vote called.

(6) Alaska is not called.  If Trump wins it, and it does not help in the overall victory strategy.

The path to victory for Trump is to win North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania and also one of those razor thin states of Nevada, Wisconsin or Michigan.  The latter seems the most promising so far.  I would expect, no matter what happens a lot of legal challenges from the side not declared the winner.

November 3, 2020

Essay: Classical liberalism's renaissance is underway

I am going to posit something that I think could be happening, on a larger scale than this just election and it will be far more plausibly true if president Trump is re-elected. 

When Trump was a candidate in 2016, a lot of conservatives did not trust that he was a true conservative.  He had donated to Democrats in the past.  There was reason to be suspicious.  Things have changed since his election. He's not who many worried about.  But so too did things change prior to his election. Many things started to change during the Obama administration; not due to him but he was the impetus for them. The Tea Party and the values it espouses were a direct result of the Obama march towards socialism. Freedom, individual liberty were rightly understood in terms of their importance. Later, Donald Trump became the right man at the right time to both embody and capitalize on an amalgamation of beliefs.

Consider that conservatism used to be staunchly against gay marriage. Now we are only against the imposition of supporting it due to governmental coercion.  It's more of a classical liberal position.  Conservatives used to be dogmatically pro-free trade. Now conservatives have a more nuanced position - free trade is good, but only if it is of benefit to Americans. Conservatism used to be staunchly pro-life, pro-God, pro-gun and pro-law and order. Well, those things it mainly still is. But look at Democrats - unions support Trump now, or at least union members do. And it turns out a lot of Democrats are the ones out buying guns now, out of fear of mob violence. Democrats in growing numbers are embracing common sense, fundamental values and an appreciation for America.

There's a confluence of Republican and Democrat positions into a classical liberalism (which is essentially modern conservatism's core values) that pre-dates Trump's presidency, but it is beginning to thrive during it.  It's bigger than president Trump, but he embodies it and is enabling it accelerating it. A trump victory in this election will allow it to truly flourish, but even without that, it may be irreversible now.  Ironically, president Obama probably was the catalyst to starting it.

Coming out of this election I can see the Republican party and many Democrats melding into a new, more robust version of the conservative, classical liberal view of the world, and a socialist progressive split or takeover of the Democratic party with a minority status for decades to come.  This presents a massive opportunity for conservatives to reshape the institutions of education, governmental beaurocracy, and media into institutions that are based on classical, originalist values. 

It will require a lot of work, and it is not going to happen over night, or even finish during a second president Trump term.  But just as president Obama was unwittingly the ignition of classical liberalism's resurgence, president Trump is a potent accelerant. It would folly for Americans who hold the framer's vision of the country dear to ignore this opportunity to set America straight, for decades.  It is no longer just about voting.  Americans must take a page from the script of the far left and work tirelessly towards their goals.  Progressivism is on its back foot and playing defense.  Now is the time to ensure it stays that way.  Not this day, this decade.  The time is now.  Seize it. The benefits to the entire country and future generations is too great to let slip away.

November 2, 2020

Well, this is it.

Well, this is it. Either it was a great Trump run, or it's the middle of great Trump run. Let me start with the Senate and Congress as far as predictions go, I have not spent much time on these races unfortunately.  I expect the Republicans however, to maintain a slim margin in the Senate +/- 1 seat. Congress I have no clue.  I expect Republicans to pick up a handful of seats but they have an outside, long shot of winning back Congress.  That would be awesome.

As for the presidency, I have two views.  My technical model view, and my tweaked view where I apply some common sense removal of outlier polls. Here we go.

The numbers call -- The day before the election and my polling model is predicting a narrow Trump win with 275 electoral college votes, Biden with 249 and 14 (Minnesota and New Hampshire) too close to call.  Interestingly in the discounting and unbiasing of polls that I perform on the RealClearPolitics polls of swing states, I'm seeing president Trump winning Michigan and Arizona but losing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  The two closest states are Arizona (a win of just ~8,000 votes) and North Carolina (~15,000).

So that's my model.  But it's based on a lot of late breaking polls that once again show Biden with a larger advantage than in the last few days of polls.  So I don't trust it and I have to tweak it a little to come up with my actual projection.

My tweaks -- After tweaking my results to discount polls that look valid on the surface but are very clearly outliers, here's what I see:

Texas (38 electoral college votes): Trump +4, with a vote lead >200,000.

Florida (29): Trump +5.5%, with a vote lead greater than his win in Texas, approaching 300,000.

Pennsylvania (20): Trump +0.9% with a lead of just 32,000 votes, and serious legal (or not so legal) attempts by Democrats to alter the results.

Ohio (18): Trump +5% with a vote lead of >165,000.

Georgia (16): Trump +2%, and a vote lead >50,000

Michigan (16): Trump +2%,  and a vote lead >50,000.

North Carolina (15): Trump +0.8% and a vote lead of just 22,000.  This is another state Democrats could very easily try to steal.

Virginia (13): The pollsters have this a lot higher but I see a Biden win by only about 4.5%.

Arizona: Trump +1% and a vote lead of just 19,000 votes.  Interestingly this is just removing one NYT/Siena poll which is clearly a late stage outlier.

Wisconsin (10): This one is a coin toss, even after removing the late stage NYT/Siena outlier poll. My model calls it for Biden but my gut says Trump. To be cautious, I'll leave this one in the Biden column for my prediction, but I honestly think Trump takes it by about 25,000 votes. Unfortunately I would have to deviate from my methodology too much to make the call for Trump.

Minnesota (10): I have Trump winning Minnesota by 1.7%, or 28,000 votes. 

Colorado (9): With no decent polling I'm just going to leave this in the Biden column. If Trump wins Colorado, the election is going to be a big red wave election. As nice as that would be, I don't see it happening, not to that extent.

Nevada (6): This is a Biden +4% win ( >30,000 votes) according to my model. I think Biden will win it but it's going to be closer than that, perhaps 2% or 15,000 votes.

Iowa (6): Trump +8.  This will not be close according to my model, or me.

New Mexico (5): There are no dependable polls in the state.  They show Biden ahead by double digits. I think he wins by 6% though.

New Hampshire (4): Unfortunately the polls have universally leaned Biden far enough that he seems to have an insurmountable lead here.  While I believe the even the 'valid' polls are overstated, unless the bias is far more pronounced than in 2016, Trump is not going to win the state. I have Biden +8% in my model. My gut says that Biden is inexplicably more likeable to people than was Clinton, so I'm going to leave it as is; a strong Biden win.

Maine (4): This state is going to go for Biden by an even larger margin than New Hampshire.  I have not seen any polls on District 2, but I'm hopeful that president Trump picks it off and gets the 1 electoral vote.

So here's my net prediction - Trump 306, Biden 232, and the president flipping Minnesota in exchange for losing Wisconsin. Trump may even pick up Wisconsin and get 316.

November 1, 2020

October 31, 2020

In Defense of Western Culture

Western Culture is associated with whiteness and evil.  In fact whiteness itself is associated with evil by many on the far left, in an incredible stretching of believability. However, people are starting to stand up to the false narrative as seen both in this Tim Pool video that outlines the banning of Critical Race Theory in government, as well as the following article from

 Original Article from  below can be found here.

Elements of the left and their allies in the media are constantly driving this point home: White people are bad and so is the culture that they have created. Everything we value as a society is bad and, more than that, little more than an ex post facto justification for the subjugation of non-whites. Western culture is white culture, and all things white are bad.

But as with everything else which these elements of the left and their allies in the media push, this is simply false. While the overlap between white people – that is, people of European descent and some Christian populations in the Caucasus – and Western culture is undeniable, it is likewise undeniable that Western culture is no longer the exclusive domain of whites. What we can call, without the slightest bit of stretching the truth, Western culture is present not just in Western Europe, North America and Australia, but also in former British colonies such as Israel, Singapore and Hong Kong.

What’s more, a country simply being part of Europe does not make it “Western” in any meaningful sense. While there is a certain Western cultural continuum based around Christianity that extends from Lisbon to Vladivostok, it would be overly simplistic (and indeed, a bit demeaning) to label the post-Soviet countries as “Western.” They have a similar set of cultural values rooted in Christianity, however, even the introduction of democracy has not made many post-Soviet and post-colonial nations more liberal in the true sense of the word – open markets, an emphasis on free speech, strong private property rights, an independent, impartial judiciary, and the primacy of the individual over that of the group.

Throughout this article we will provide some terms to define what we mean by “Western culture.” We will also make the case that Western cultural values have a universal aspect in the sense that they can be applied with success anywhere in the world, that these values are objectively superior to other value sets at maximizing human freedomquality of life, and potential, and that the belief in this superiority has nothing to do with “racism” in the sense that it is commonly understood by ordinary people.

One demonstration of the proof that these values are objectively superior is that "people vote with their feet", as Dr. Jordan Peterson points out: "The fundamental assumptions of Western civilization are valid. Here's how you know: Which countries do people want to move away from? Not ours. Which countries do people want to move to? Ours! Guess what, they work better. And it's not because we went around the world stealing everything we could get our hands on. It's because we got certain fundamental assumptions right - and thank God for that."

Trump 279, Biden 245, Uncalled 14 (maybe).

I meant to get this update done yesterday, but it is now looking to me like Trump is in a good position for Tuesday based on deconstructed polls. The following is based on the Clinton 2016 bias reduced to 85% of that bias impact for Biden this cycle.  I think there will be a couple more updates between now and Tuesday but the momentum in the polls seems to be on Trump's side over the last week, a good sign.  The predictions below are based on some assumptions that are listed below wherein I am trying to be as objective as possible.  Personally I think the president could over-perform these results by quite a bit.  Conversely the pollsters could be more correct than they were in 2016, but I cannot find evidence that such is the case.

Taking a look at the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the battleground states, president Trump currently has 279 electoral college votes.  Joe Biden currently has 245 electoral college votes and there are 14 electoral college votes that have not yet been decided.*

*Based on the following parameters; polls taken in the last 13 days, with a sample size of at least 500 among likely voters, with a margin of error of less than 4.3%, among pollsters rated C/D or better, using the Pollster Tracking by, and removing 538's allocated pollster bias as well as my calculated temporal pro-Clinton bias vs. actual election results from 2016. States must have at least 2 valid polls to be considered.

First the good news.

In Texas, Trump leads Biden 51.8% to 48.2%. This represents a difference of 3.6%. In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 230,728. In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 251,703. This is measured across 3 valid poll(s). Trump wins the electoral college votes for Texas because while it has tightened, it is not a swing state.

In Florida, Trump leads Biden 51.9% to 48.1%. This represents a difference of 3.8%. In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 198,592. In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 216,646. This is measured across 8 valid polls. Trump I think wins the electoral college votes for Florida by enough that there will be no recourse for Democrats to challenge it.

There are a couple of other states that the Trump victory should be similarly too large to contest: In Ohio, Trump leads Biden 53.4% to 46.6%. In Iowa, Trump leads Biden 52.4% to 47.6% (In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 43,976, too much for a small population state to be thrown into chaos recounts).  In Arizona, Trump leads Biden 51% to 49%. (in a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 35,710, probably too much for Democrats to contest).

Similarly in Minnesota, Trump leads Biden 51.5% to 48.5%. enough of a difference to negate any sort of recount or missing ballots showing up in the trunk of a car. But there's a caveat to this one - it is measured across only 1 valid poll, which I am always hesitant to do. I would leave it as a toss-up for now, despite non-polling evidence momentum is in Trump's direction.

Then there are the states that are going to vote Trump but are worrisome due to the tightness of the race.

In Pennsylvania, there's a tight, tight race but Trump leads Biden 50.1% to 49.9%. This represents a difference of just 0.2%. In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 5,576. In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 6,083. This is measured across 6 valid polls. Trump should win the electoral college votes for Pennsylvania. But what is concerning is this is a tight enough race for Democrats to try to flip the result to Biden by voter fraud or through some type of court challenge followed by endless recounts a la their Florida 2000 efforts.

In North Carolina, Trump leads Biden 50.1% to 49.9%. This represents a difference of 0.1%.  In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 2,998.  In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 3,270.    This is measured across 7 valid polls.

In Georgia, Trump leads Biden 50.1% to 49.9%. This is only a difference of 0.2%.  In a regular turnout election, this represents a vote difference of 5,422.  In a high turnout election, this equates to a vote lead of 5,914. This is measured across 3 valid polls. That's definitely a recount scenario effort for Democrats.

Now the challenging parts.

There are a few states polls after factoring in bias still show Biden leading: In Michigan, Trump trails Biden 50.4% to 49.6% across 7 valid polls.  In Wisconsin, Trump trails Biden 51.2% to 48.8%,  measured across 4 valid polls. In Nevada, Trump trails Biden 52.3% to 47.7% across 2 valid polls.

Virginia appears to be a lock for Biden but I see only one poll that I would factor in, and I don't think the Biden lead will be as massive as the polls predict. And in New Hampshire, Trump trails Biden 52.2% to 47.8% but only across one poll that is worth mentioning. Should this be accurate, Trump cannot demand a recount, the lead is just too big.

In Colorado, New Mexico and Maine there are no polls that are worth factoring in but I suspect Biden will win all three.

All of this said, (1) there may be a few new polls posted today that need to be considered and (2) this is with a bias towards the Democrat at 85% of what we saw in 2016 for Hillary Clinton in October. That polling error/bias could be 0% this time around (giving Biden a massive win).  It could also be 150% of the previous bias (which means a Trump landslide. For example, if the bias is 100% of 2016, Michigan flips to Trump's column by 50,000 - 60,000 votes.

Saturday Learning Series - The Psychological Significance of the Biblical stories

Jordan Peterson talks about the importance of the Bible stories in this 17 part series.

Warning:  this is an intense intellectual lecture that requires your time and attention.  It's worth it though.

October 30, 2020

Mark Dice, still good and why Biden is in Iowa

 Mark Dice doesn't need my repost of his latest video, but he's got it anyway.

I do still expect an October surprise from Democrats but I think it's too little, too late to make a difference.  Election Day is Tuesday and I think the Democrats believe it's done.  

Why is Joe Biden in Iowa today?  He's not going to win Iowa. I think he's trying to help the Democrats' chances in the senate and trying to help upset Republican incumbent Joni Ernst.  If he felt like he was going to win the election, he would be in a more swingy, swing state.  Not Iowa.

Friday Musical Interlude - Fake Plastic Trees but it's an orchestra

 Epic Orchestra performs the Radiohead song Fake Plastic Trees, epically.

My predictions have been wrong all along (slightly)

Two days ago I pointed out that if the polls in 2020 had 85% of the same October bias as did the polls in October 2016, Trump was leading Biden at 247 to 243 electoral college votes with 48 electoral college undecided. Today, with the same bias level,  and giving Virginia, New Mexico and all of Maine to Biden, Trump is leading Biden 264 to 260 with only New Hampshire and Minnesota remaining undecided.  

If Trump  gets Maine District 2 and wins New Hampshire, he actually gets to 269 - the dreaded tie scenario if Biden were to win Minnesota.  However I took a closer look at North Carolina which I was seeing as perilously close.  If Trump were to win that he would actually have enough electoral college votes to win the election even without New Hampshire and Main District 2.

It got me thinking - I'm applying both my own view of the 2016 bias as well as the 538 pollster bias. I could be double counting the bias.  But thanks to a video (I cannot relocate the exact one) from Red Eagle Politics (a great YouTube channel worth checking out), I decided to take a closer look at the 538 pollster bias ratings. As was pointed out on the video I saw, the pollster ratings provided by 538 are kind of suspect. The New York Times/Siena polls are rated as a +0.7% bias towards - Republicans??? 

Looking Just at North Carolina polls in October 2016, they had Clinton +2 (late September) and Clinton +8 (late October).  In their poll of the last three days before the election they rated it a 44-44 tie, with a margin of error +/-3.5% (their CYA poll).  In North Carolina in 2016 Trump won 49.8 to 46.2.  That represents a victory of 3.6%, actually just outside their margin of error. And in fact, they underrepresented the Trump support by 5.8% and Clinton by 2.2%.  Clearly (1) they got it wrong by even their own Margin of Error on 1 of the 2 data points as well as the overall result, and (2) how the hell are they rated Republican +0.7%? What is that rating based on? Perhaps congressional polling results? It doesn't matter, their bias factor clearly cannot be  attributable to upcoming election at a presidential level. That's just one example, and I found others.

The takeaway - The 538 pollster bias is sketchy at best, and I am backing it out of my calculations.

Stay tuned for a revised update of my polling-adjusted view of the electoral college situation later today. That's not to say all of the 538 data is bunk.  The do provide a pollster grade rating that is, for the most part, reasonable - especially when it comes to lesser known pollsters.  I will still be filtering out those pollsters that they have rated below a C+.  That may be a generous inclusion of me when it comes to certain pollsters, but I do still have other means of filtering out garbage polls (old polls, Margin of error issues, sample sizes to small for example) and those will remain intact. 

I expect my look later today will be more accurate than what I have been showing and I expect it to break slightly more in Trump's favor.

October 29, 2020

The economy had a pretty good third quarter

 Via Breitbart:

The U.S. economy grew at the fastest pace ever recorded in the third quarter, expanding at an annualized pace of 33.1 percent, the U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday. 

The economic rebound means the U.S. recovered significant ground following the record-breaking collapse of output due to lockdowns intended to stem the spread of the coronavirus. Despite the third-quarter gains, the economy is still 3.5 percent smaller than it was as the year began. 

Economists had expected the economy to grow 30.9 percent, according to Econoday. Some economists, however, had been expecting a bigger expansion following the release this week of positive data in recent news on durable good data and international trade. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow had third-quarter growth at 37 percent. 

The third-quarter GDP gain was fueled by a record 40.7 percent increase in consumer spending. Business investment surged 20.3 percent during the quarter, reflecting a 70.1 percent jump in investment in equipment. The housing market is booming: residential investment grew at a rate of 59.3 percent.

That's the largest growth quarter in history.  Following the worst quarter in history, the best.  CNN will spin this as 'people are still hurting but this proves that the president gets economics. Under Biden and a shutdown this would be another quarter of contraction with a negative GDP in Q3.

October 28, 2020

Predicting the presidential race comes down to belief

The 2020 election comes down belief. I'm not taking just who believes in their candidate.  I'm talking about predicting who is going to win depends on what and who you believe.  The pols seem wonky and over-dramatically pro-Biden. But that's what I believe. I believe that man cannot generate enthusiasm.  Then again, you might believe there's a rabid anti-Trump enthusiasm that overshadows Biden himself.

Maybe there's a revenge factor for Democrats who really, really wanted Hillary Clinton to  win.  Conversely Trump supporters have a reason for revenge of their own - 4 years of phony impeachment to oust a duly elected president.

Now election  prediction - that's a different sort of beliefs, going back to what you believe about the polls.  In 2016 they were wrong. Badly wrong.  Oh, granted in the final days they got close. But that was right at the end.  I pointed this out yesterday.  The real question is: "Is the same thing happening again in 2020"? It's hard to believe that the Democrats chose a candidate that is even more lackluster than Hillary Clinton was, but they actually did it. So yes, I believe that the polling is again in 2020 either erroneous or deliberately misleading.  How much so?

That's the real question. I'm seeing some truly dramatic election impacts if the reasonable and recent polls (margin of error less than 4.3%, done in the last 13 days and by reasonably reputable pollster) are scaled to the same level of bias (or less) compared to how off they were in 2016.

For example, if the polls are only 80% as biased towards Biden as the were to Hillary. Biden has almost won.  In this scenario he probably gets all of the states that cannot be called based on polling, except maybe Iowa and ends up 305 electoral college votes - a solid win.  However, in order to ensure that he wins the level of bias would have to drop all the way to 45% where Biden would also capture Florida.

But if the bias is 85% of the Clinton bias, Trump is actually leading right now.  And interestingly, Pennsylvania is the first state to flip from Biden to Trump's column.

At 90% of the Clinton bias in polls applied to 2020, North Carolina flips from Biden to Trump as well, but he still has not won.

At a bias level in late October 2020 matching that of October 2016, Michigan flips and Trump wins.

If there is zero bias in the polls Biden has 308 electoral votes and likely garners most of the 48 undecided states. His potential ceiling is 356 electoral college votes.  That shows this is definitely a matter of belief.  After all the bias could be even worse this time around. Biden is less energizing than Hillary Clinton was, right?  If the bias is 125% of what Hillary got in October 2016, Trump get 288 electoral votes comfortably and at possibly 28 of the undecided 48 undecided states (where the polling is just not sufficient to make a plausible call), for a total of 316 electoral college votes.

What do you believe? The polls are right, or close, or wrong?  That's what leads to an inability to make a reasonable prediction right now and we are less than a week away.

For the record, I see no evidence that the pollsters recognized and adjusted their methodologies from 2016. As a result, I believe Trump is going to win (minus any cheating). I just don't know how soundly he is going to win. My hope is that it's enough to overcome any potential "insurance policies" on the part of the left.

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